Global Sugar Market Update – Week of March 2, 2025

This week’s update highlights new global partnerships, production forecasts, regulatory shifts, and emerging trends that are reshaping the sugar market landscape.

Key Themes Discussed:

Nigeria’s Strategic Push into the Global Market
Nigeria is exploring a strategic partnership with China to revitalize its $2 billion sugar sector.
The initiative, led by the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership and the National Sugar Development Council, aims to introduce advanced Chinese technology to elevate Nigeria’s sugar production to international standards.
This collaboration could position Nigeria as a more influential player amid rising Chinese sugar import demand.

Projected Global Sugar Deficit
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 4.88 million tons for 2024–25, driven by:

• Reduced yields in India and Pakistan
• Subpar cane output in Thailand
   Despite ethanol and molasses production growth (especially in the US and Brazil), static high-fructose syrup output and tightening stock-to-consumption ratios are creating downward pressure on sugar prices.

Brazil’s Dual Challenge: Record Output and Export Struggles
Brazil expects a record 43.6 million metric tons of sugar production as mills favor sugar profitability over ethanol.
However, the strengthening Brazilian real is curbing export momentum, while weather-induced cane losses have led to a downward revision of national production figures.

Thailand’s Robust Production Outlook
Thailand projects an 18% increase in sugar production to 10.35 million metric tons for 2024–25.
Despite setbacks from China’s import ban on Thai sugar syrup due to hygiene concerns, Thailand continues to consolidate its position among the top global exporters.

Eastern Europe’s Mixed Trajectory

• Belarus: Emerges among the top 10 global exporters after a bumper sugar beet harvest.
• Moldova: Risks becoming a net importer due to historically low sugar beet yields.
• Kyrgyzstan: Achieves record sugar beet processing but struggles with persistently high domestic sugar prices, leading to an import ban to boost local production.

India’s Weather-Driven Production Decline and Export Liberalization
India faces a 12% year-on-year drop in sugar production, prompting the government to ease export restrictions to stabilize the domestic market.
The industry’s adaptation to these regulatory changes is critical for maintaining equilibrium in both domestic and global supply chains.

Global Market Dynamics:

Shift from Deficit to Surplus Expected
Despite current tightness, projections from Global Pool Commodities indicate the market could soon swing toward a surplus, with Brazil’s record crop and Thailand’s rising output offsetting deficits elsewhere.

Trade Policy in Focus
Upcoming World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations are expected to heavily influence the global sugar trade environment, particularly concerning tariff structures and market access issues.

Strategic Implications:

• Nigeria's Internationalization Strategy: Could serve as a model for other emerging sugar economies.
• Brazil’s Currency Risk: Highlights how macroeconomic factors outside agriculture impact commodity competitiveness.
• Asia’s Growing Export Power: Thailand and Belarus are reshaping export flows traditionally dominated by Brazil and India.

Listen to this episode for:

• Updates on Nigeria-China sugar partnerships
• Global sugar deficit drivers and WTO negotiation highlights
• Brazil’s struggle between record production and declining export competitiveness
• Insights into how Eastern Europe and Asia are shifting global sugar trade patterns