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  • FX MARKET REPORT 29.03.2021

    GBP/USD attracted some dip-buying on Monday and shot to multi-day tops in the last hour. The uptick was led by cross-driven strength stemming from the EUR/GBP and the GBP/JPY. The prevalent USD buying should cap the upside, instead prompt fresh selling at higher levels. EUR/USD has continued to struggle to get close to the 1.1800 level, with gains petering out around the 1.1790 area. Continued concerns about lockdown and the Coivd-19 pandemic in the Eurozone mean that it is unsurprising to EUR struggle. ECB’s de Cos: Vital to maintain accommodative monetary policy. Continued concerns about the lockdown and the trajectory of the pandemic in the Eurozone mean that it is unsurprising to see the euro struggle to gain traction against its US dollar counterpart on Monday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel reportedly does not see the lockdown restrictions in many states as sufficient to contain the third Covid-19 wave and is reportedly threatening to impose federal law to ensure restrictions are tough enough. Meanwhile, high infection rates in most EU countries mean lockdown eases remains a distant prospect for many countries. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 92.865, just below a four-month high of 92.868 reached overnight. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 109.55, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.7620.

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 26.03.2021

    GBP/USD to warn of a more significant correction lower below 1.3779. EUR/USD picks up extra pace and approaches 1.1800. German IFO Business Climate surprised to the upside. The likeliness of another wave of the coronavirus pandemic, further lockdown restrictions and the poor pace of the vaccination campaign in Europe all collaborate in the selling pressure around the shared currency and the deterioration of the sentiment surrounding the pair for the time being. EUR/USD would target 1.2000 (psychological level) en route to 1.2031 (50-say SMA). On the flip side, immediate contention emerges at 1.1761 (2021 low Mar.25) seconded by 1.1745 (low Nov.23 2020) and finally 1.1602 (monthly low Nov.4). US PCE, Personal Income/Spending, U-Mich Index next on tap. The dollar index was down 0.1% at 92.793, just below a four-month high of 92.868 reached overnight. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 109.25, near its highest since June, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD rose 0.5% to 0.7619.

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 25.03.2021

    GBP/USD struggled to preserve early gains to levels just above the 1.3700 mark. Sustained USD buying turned out to be a key factor that prompted fresh selling. The set-up favours bearish traders amid tensions over COVID-19 vaccine supplies. EUR/USD faces extra selling pressure near the 1.1800 level. The upside momentum in the pair follows the persistent USD strength. German Consumer Confidence improved to -6.2 in April. EUR/USD loses ground for the third session in a row and accelerates the breakdown of the key 200-day SMA (1.1854), all collaborating further with the ongoing bearish note around the single currency. The pair keeps the negative note unchanged, as investors exacerbate the outflows from the shared currency in response to fresh/tighter lockdown restrictions in the Old Continent amidst rising speculations that another wave of the pandemic could be shaping up. The dollar index was up 0.2% at 92.712, just below a four-month high of 92.692 reached overnight. USD/JPY was up 0.3% at 109.07, GBP/USD was down 0.1% at 1.3672, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD was flat at 0.7583.

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 24.03.2021

    GBP/USD came under intense selling pressure on Tuesday and dropped to multi-week lows. A strong pickup in the USD demand was seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure. Technical selling below the 1.3800 mark further contributed to the steep intraday decline. EUR/USD has extended its falls below 1.19 amid rising coronavirus concerns in the EU. Germany's Merkel confirmed an extension to the lockdown until April 18. The US dollar firms up amid worsening market mood, as the focus shifts to Powell's testimony. The Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 91.877, just below recent highs. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 108.69 while NZD/USD fell 1.2% to 0.7076, hitting a three-month low, after the New Zealand government announced new measures to try and cool its fast-growing property market by increasing the supply of houses and removing tax incentives for speculators. This dragged the risk-sensitive AUD/USD lower, with this pair 0.8% lower at 0.7685.

    5 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 23.03.2021

    GBP/USD came under intense selling pressure on Tuesday and dropped to multi-week lows. A strong pickup in the USD demand was seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure. Technical selling below the 1.3800 mark further contributed to the steep intraday decline. EUR/USD has extended its falls below 1.19 amid rising coronavirus concerns in the EU. Germany's Merkel confirmed an extension to the lockdown until April 18. The US dollar firms up amid worsening market mood, as the focus shifts to Powell's testimony. The Dollar Index was up 0.2% at 91.877, just below recent highs. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 108.69 while NZD/USD fell 1.2% to 0.7076, hitting a three-month low, after the New Zealand government announced new measures to try and cool its fast-growing property market by increasing the supply of houses and removing tax incentives for speculators. This dragged the risk-sensitive AUD/USD lower, with this pair 0.8% lower at 0.7685.

    6 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 22.03.2021

    GBP/USD: Britain's covid vaccine achievements to allow the pound to extend its recovery. EUR/USD briefly tests lows in the 1.1870 region. The bid tone around the dollar remains well and sound. EMU’s Current Account results, ECB-speak next on tap. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 92.047, helped by its safe haven status. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 108.70, GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.3853, while the risk-sensitive AUD/USD dropped 0.2% to 0.7727. A lot of the market’s focus will be on the Turkish lira, with USD/TRY up 8.4% at 7.8226 following Erdogan's shock weekend decision to dismiss central bank governor Naci Agbal after just four months in the role. The decision came only days after he announced a sharp rise in interest rates to combat rising inflation. Erdogan subsequently appointed Sahap Kavcioglu, a ruling party lawmaker who has argued for lower interest rates, raising fears he will reverse the orthodox moves taken to battle inflation, which could lead to prolonged market volatility. In his short time on the job, Agbal had raised rates by 875 basis points to 19% and regained some policy credibility prompting the lira to rally from the depths.

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 19.03.2021

    GBP/USD managed to regain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week. Retreating US bond yields kept the USD bulls on the defensive and extended some support. Concerns about a shortage in COVID-19 vaccines in the UK might cap gains for the major. EUR/USD bounces off lows in the 1.19 zone on Friday. Lower US yields remove strength from the dollar. German Producer Prices rose 0.7% MoM, 1.9% YoY. The dollar index was down about 0.1% at 91.689 after rising as much as 0.2% in early Asian trading. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pledged this week to press on with aggressive monetary stimulus, saying a near-term spike in inflation would prove temporary amid projections for the strongest U.S economic growth in nearly 40 years. The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield climbed to a more-than-one-year peak of 1.754% overnight before easing to 1.6821%. The yen dipped briefly after the Bank of Japan widened its target band for the benchmark yield in a decision that was in line with market expectations. The dollar was last down 0.1% at 108.760 yen after small gains overnight.

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 18.03.2021

    The BoE does not hold a press conference and will likely remain silent on yields – and staying mum means allowing them to rise. Such an increase in yields would allow the pound to recover – even if the dollar storm continues. GBP/USD touched 1.40 key level ahead of BoE, swinging around 1.3960 currently. Euro/dollar has been rejected at 1.1990 – the same cap it hit late last week. That double-top also converges with the 100 Simple Moving Average on the 4-hour chart. Even if the European Medicines Agency gives the green light to resume the usage of Astra's doses, many Europeans are set to refuse to receive them. Overall, the eurozone is set to lag behind in its recovery from the crisis – and that may weigh on the euro. The US dollar quickly unwound all this week’s gains after the FOMC remained consistent in its dovishness. The dollar index fell by 0.46% to 91.44, levels last seen at the end of last week. Interestingly, as the stock market rally has ebbed, the index has climbed back to 91.51 in Asia as US 10-year futures fall by 0.20%, suggesting the mechanical linkage remains as strong as ever.

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 17.03.2021

    GBP/USD gained traction on Wednesday and built on the overnight bounce from one-week lows. The uptick was solely led by some cross-driven strength stemming from a fall in the EUR/GBP. The debacle around AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccines continues as the old continent is struggling to get jabs into its citizens' arms and even if the crisis is resolved shortly, many European would still refuse this specific inoculation – or perhaps others. The European Medicines Agency is set to announce its verdict on the safety of AZ's immunization on Thursday after cases of blood clots seemed to be correlated with the jabs. Several European leaders hinted that vaccination will likely return. However, a message saying that the benefits of the injections outweigh the risk could do little to alleviate concerns. Support awaits at 1.1870, which was a stepping stone on the way up last week, and that is followed by the 2021 trough of 1.1836. Above 1.1910, the next cap awaits at 1.1950, which held EUR/USD down on Tuesday. GBP/EUR is trading around the key level 1.17 on the back of euro-weakness, the highest level since 24 Feb 2020. A more than one-year high. The upside seems limited ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision and BoE meeting on Thursday. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 91.925, having risen for three straight sessions on support mainly from elevated U.S. bond yields. USD/JPY was up 0.2% at 109.15, near the nine-month high hit earlier this week, and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting ending Friday.  AUD/USD dropped 0.1% to 0.7736.

    5 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 16.03.2021

    GBP/USD witnessed some follow-through selling for the third straight session on Tuesday. Vaccine fears weighed on investors’ sentiment and benefitted the safe-haven greenback. Softer US bond yields any strong gains for the USD and helped limit losses for the major. Investors look forward to US Retail Sales for some impetus ahead of the FOMC and BoE. Market participants are likely to take cues from Tuesday's release of the US monthly Retail Sales data. Apart from this, the US bond yields might influence the USD price dynamics and produce some short-term trading opportunities around the GBP/USD pair. EUR/USD keeps the trade above the 1.19 level on Tuesday. The German Economic Sentiment improved to 76.6 in March. US Retail Sales, Industrial Production next in the calendar. The dollar index was up 0.1% at 91.927. USD/JPY was up 0.1% at 109.22, after rising to a nine-month high of 109.36 on Monday and ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting starting Thursday. AUD/USD dropped 0.3% to 0.7736.

    4 min

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