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  • FX MARKET REPORT 22.09.2020

    GBP/USD looks to be back under pressure as the market is seeing dollar strength across the board. The pair is trading near to the 1.2780 daily low and a loss of the 1.2690 support is set to trigger a deeper fall to the 1.2250/00 zone, per Commerzbank. EUR/USD risks a further pullback to the 1.1695 level in the next weeks, suggested FX Strategists at UOB Group. Dollar Index was up 0.1% at 93.727, climbing to a six-week high. USD/JPY was largely flat at 104.63. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% lower, but CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.6% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.6%. European stocks sold off sharply on Monday, with these three benchmark cash indexes all dropping over 3%.  LVMH (PA:LVMH) may also be in the spotlight after a U.S. court set a January date for Tiffany's (NYSE:TIF) lawsuit against the French luxury goods conglomerate for trying to back out of its $16 billion deal to acquire the jeweler. Oil prices drifted lower Tuesday, continuing the previous session’s weakness despite Tropical Storm Beta proving less disruptive to the infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico than feared. However, persistent worries about fuel demand as coronavirus cases continue to flare up around the globe remain a drag. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $39.51 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.1% to $41.41. Both oil benchmarks fell around 4% on Monday. Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,917.95/oz.  

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 21.09.2020

    GBP traded sideways between 1.2914 and 1.2999. The underlying tone has weakened and from here, GBP could drift lower to 1.2875 (minor support is at 1.2900). Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has yet to announce what would replace – if at all – the furlough scheme which expires next month. The specter of mass UK layoffs is worrying about the nation and markets. A gradual tapering of the scheme is likely, but without details, sterling could suffer. EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1825 and 1.1870 before settling a tad lower at 1.1837 (-0.08%). Momentum indicators are turning neutral and EUR could continue to trade in a quiet manner, expected to be between 1.1820 and 1.1885. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 92.862. USD/JPY was down 0.2% at 104.34. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.6% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 2%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.7%. HSBC (LON:HSBA) is likely to be in the spotlight Monday after slumping in Asian trading, with its shares falling to the lowest level since 1995. HSBC, along with Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF), is one of the banks accused of moving large sums of allegedly illicit funds over nearly two decades by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) will also be in focus after the pharma giant said on Saturday that its Covid-19 vaccine trial in the United States was still on hold, after a safety event was reported in its U.K. trial two weeks ago.  Oil prices edged lower Monday despite another weather pattern emerging to threaten output in the Gulf of Mexico. In what has been an active hurricane season, Tropical Storm Beta has prompted some oil producers to evacuate offshore platforms in the region, just as they had been restarting their operations in the wake of Hurricane Sally. U.S. crude futures traded 0.6% lower at $41.09 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.75% to $42.92. Gold futures fell 0.3% to $1,956.95/oz.  

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 18.09.2020

    GBP/USD has been rising amid fresh Brexit hopes and despite the Bank of England's dovish shift. On Friday, speculation about a new UK lockdown and data on both sides of the pond are eyed, the pair is trying hard to extend the recovery, attacking the psychological 1.30 mark. EUR/USD to surge towards 1.20 on a break above 1.1880. Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 92.823 while USD/JPY was largely flat at 104.70, but still on course for a gain of 1.5% over the week. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded flat, the CAC 40 in France fell 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was down 0.3%. Covestro (DE:1COV) stock soared 6.7% after Bloomberg reported that buyout firm Apollo Global Management (NYSE:APO) is weighing up the acquisition of the plastics manufacturer. Bayer (DE:BAYGN), which holds a 7.5% stake in Covestro, also outperformed, rising 0.3%. Caixabank (MC:CABK) gained 0.8% after its acquisition of state-owned lender Bankia (MC:BKIA), down 2%, was approved by both boards, potentially creating Spain's biggest domestic bank. That comes as their two biggest rivals, Banco Santander (MC:SAN) and BBVA (MC:BBVA), both plumb 52-week lows. Additionally, the London Stock Exchange (LON:LSE) rose 0.6% after it revealed it had entered into exclusive discussions with Euronext (PA:ENX), which gained 4.2%, in relation to the sale of the Borsa Italiana group. Man Group (LON:EMG) rose 0.7% after saying it will start a new share-buyback program of up to $100 million. U.S. crude futures traded 1.2% higher at $41.47 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract rose 1.1% to $43.78. Both benchmarks have seen gains of over 9% this week, the first positive week in three. Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,962.35/oz.  

    3 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 17.09.2020

    GBP/USD staged a solid comeback on the 1.2900 level so far this Thursday, although the bulls now appear to lack follow-through ahead of the Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy decision. EUR/USD erodes the four-month uptrend at 1.1826, scope for 1.1495 – Commerzbank; Danske Bank now see the EUR/USD range as shifting from 1.18-1.20 to being 1.17-1.19 but stick to their call of 1.23 in six-months time following Powell’s press conference which will likely mean the USD-negative reflation story is set to pause a bit longer. The Dollar Index was up 0.4% at 93.450, while the USD/JPY rose 0.1% to 104.99 after the Bank of Japan kept its key interest rate at -0.1% and left its asset purchases unchanged, as widely expected. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 1.1% lower, the CAC 40 in France fell 1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was down 0.8%.  Next (LON:NXT) stock rose 2.6% after the U.K. fashion chain raised its profit outlook for the full year for a second time. It said business had proven "more resilient than we expected" in the first half, despite a 34% fall in sales and a pretax loss. Rivals Inditex (MC:ITX) and H&M (ST:HMb), had both reported a return to profitability in the latest three months.  Trainline (LON:TRNT) also detailed the extent of the hit from the measures taken to curb the spread of Covid-19, with sales down 81% in the first half of fiscal 2021. That said, the U.K.-based company said trading started recovering in the second quarter, with the relaxation of travel restrictions. Its stock rose 2.1%. IG Group (LON:IGG) soared 5.6% after the online trading platform posted a substantial jump in first-quarter revenue, benefiting from high levels of trading activity during these turbulent times. Natixis (PA:BFCEp) stock dropped 2.3% after its H20 Asset Management arm had to write down the value of Windnorst bonds by some 60%. U.S. crude futures traded 0.8% lower at $39.84 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.7% to $41.91. Both benchmarks saw gains of close to 5% during the previous session. Gold futures fell 1% to $1,951.40/oz.  

    3 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 16.09.2020

    GBP lacks firm directional bias and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses. GBP/USD holds steady below 1.2900 mark, BOE Readies for Action. EUR/USD keeps the consolidative fashion unchanged. Dollar Down Ahead of Fed Meeting, down 0.03% to 93.085, giving up some earlier gains. The USD/JPY pair was down 0.15% to 105.28. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 0.1% higher, the CAC 40 in France rose 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was down 0.3%. Inditex (MC:ITX) stock climbed 5.6% after the fashion retailer returned to quarterly profit in the three months from May to July despite sales slumping as consumers stayed away from city centre shopping districts. This follows Swedish rival H&M (ST:HMb) beating quarterly profit forecasts on Tuesday, and could represent a rebound for the battered retail sector. H&M stock rose another 4.4% on Wednesday.  Oil prices rose after the American Petroleum Institute detailed a big drop in U.S. stockpiles and Hurricane Sally continued to disrupt offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico. U.S. crude futures traded 2% higher at $39.04 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract rose 1.7% to $41.22. Both benchmarks rose by more than 2% during the previous session. Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,973.75/oz.  

    3 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 15.09.2020

    The GBP/USD pair is trading near daily highs just below the 1.29 level, up 0.36% on the day. The  downtrend continues – with the latest upswing looking like a necessary correction before the next dive. Despite the supporting factor, the upside is likely to remain limited amid growing fears of a no-deal Brexit. EUR/USD has been extending its gains, buoyed by optimism about a vaccine. Brexit remains a risk factor for the euro. Contrary to last week's moves, price action is limited to the pound this time, yet a rapid slide in sterling may drag the common currency down with it.  Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 92.920. USD/CNY traded 0.3% lower at 6.7856, after posting a 16-month low of 6.7793 earlier Monday. Helping the tone were the latest Chinese economic data, suggesting the second-largest economy in the world was recovering from the Covid-19 hit. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.4% higher, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.1%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.4%. OPEC downgraded its oil demand forecast for both this year and the next due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, while U.K.-based oil giant BP (NYSE:BP) said the era of oil-demand growth is over. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $37.24 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.2% to $39.55. Gold futures rose 0.6% to $1,975.60/oz.  

    4 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 14.09.2020

    GBP/USD to bounce from 200-DMA at 1.2735 ahead of further losses – Commerzbank. Goldman Sachs says pound levels now attractive. EUR/USD to see further gains as markets are upbeat after a turbulent week, trading around 1.1850. Bulls eye initial resistance at 1.1875. The U.S. Dollar Index edged down 0.16% to 93.192 this morning and rolled over to the December contract on Sunday. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 1% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.5%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.4%. AstraZeneca (NYSE:AZN) announced Saturday that it had resumed phase 3 trials of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate, which it is developing with the University of Oxford, after the relevant U.K. authorities gave their approval. Additionally, a day later, Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) CEO Albert Bourla said the company’s own candidate, co-developed with German drug maker BioNTech, has a “good chance” of submitting key data from late-stage trials by the end of October. Euronext (PA:ENX) will be in focus after saying Monday that it has submitted a non-binding offer to acquire Borsa Italiana from London Stock Exchange Group (LON:LSE). This is set to spark a takeover battle for the Italian exchange as Deutsche Boerse (DE:DB1Gn) submitted an offer on Friday. Oil prices strengthened Monday as another fierce storm in the Gulf of Mexico caused rigs to shut down production. U.S. crude futures traded 0.5% higher at $37.53 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract rose 0.3% to $39.93. Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,957.20/oz. 

    3 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 11.09.2020

    The GBP/USD pair held on to its modest gains around the 1.2800 region and had a rather muted reaction to the UK macro data dump, after falling into the 1.2775-70 area last night. The pair managed to gain some positive traction on the last trading day of the week and recovered a part of the previous day's steep decline of over 250 pips. It is worth recalling that the GBP/USD pair on Thursday witnessed a dramatic turnaround from the 1.3035 region and nosedived to sub-1.2800 levels, or seven-week lows. EUR/USD is up for the third consecutive session on Friday, extending the rebound from lows in the 1.1750 region recorded earlier in the week. The pair managed to briefly surpass the key 1.19 barrier following the unexpected upbeat message from the ECB yesterday. Dollar Index was down 0.1% at 93.285, the USD/JPY pair inched up 0.02% to 106.16. In other markets, DAX in Germany traded 0.2% lower, the CAC 40 in France dropped 0.1% and the U.K.'s FTSE index was up 0.1%. Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) stock rose 0.3% after announcing that chief executive Jean-Sébastien Jacques, who has led the mining giant since 2016, will step down after the company destroyed an Aboriginal heritage site in Australia while developing a new mine. Swiss frozen baked goods maker Aryzta (SIX:ARYN) jumped 11% after it said it was in advanced talks with private equity firm Elliott Advisors over a takeover deal. French telecoms company Altice NV (AS:ATCA) surged 26% as its founder Patrick Drahi moved to take it private after an alarming stock slump this year. U.S. crude futures traded 0.1% lower at $37.27 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.3% to $39.96. Both major benchmarks are down around 6.5% for the week and headed for a second week of declines. Gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,951.15/oz.  

    3 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 10.09.2020

    Sterling continues to weaken this week as market participants move quickly to price in more of a Brexit risk premium. The pound has weakened sharply in recent days resulting in EUR/GBP rising back towards the 0.9100-level and GBP/USD towards the 1.3000-level. Ireland's PM Martin said that 'where there is a will there is a way' when questioned about the Brexit deal. EUR/USD rises 0.24% to trade at 1.1830, buoyed by the ECB’s economic optimism and broad dollar weakness. Dollar Index was down 0.2% at 93.090, with USD/JPY pair inched down 0.06% to 106.11. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.3% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.4%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. underperformed, falling 0.2%. Overnight in the U.S., the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index posted its steepest rise in more than four months, gaining 2.7%, to halt a three-session slump that had cast doubt over the valuations of the mega cap tech stocks which had driven the market’s strong recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.6% and the S&P 500 climbed 2%, in conjunction. Oil prices slipped back Thursday, as a rise in U.S. crude inventories prompted concerns about faltering demand just as the peak driving season comes to an end. U.S. crude futures traded 0.2% lower at $37.97 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent contract fell 0.1% to $40.75. Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,956.70/oz. 

    3 min
  • FX MARKET REPORT 09.09.2020

    GBP/USD seesaws in a choppy range between 1.2920/40. AstraZeneca, China data news trigger risk reset. EUR/USD has reversed higher from significant support at 1.1757. Euro bulls may have a hard time holding on to gains. Dollar firms, yen up as tech selloff hits FX. In other markets, DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.2% higher, CAC 40 futures in France fell 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. dropped 0.4%.   The sell-off in big tech stocks continued Tuesday, resulting in large losses overnight on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.3%, or 632 points. The S&P 500 was down 2.8%, while the Nasdaq Composite slumped 4.1% into correction territory, with losses of about 10% in the past three days.  The international benchmark Brent contract trade below $40 a barrel for the first time since late June. U.S. crude futures traded 0.3% lower at $36.66 a barrel, while gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,935.95/oz. 

    3 min

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