Crossing Thin Ice

Are you using RBC for your company’s risk capital calculations? In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the power of Own Factor Risk Formulas—customized risk metrics that can give insurers a clearer, faster, and more accurate picture of their capital needs that is easy to explain to executives and boards. From historical stress testing to AI-enhanced risk management, we explore how companies can move beyond regulatory formulas to build a model that truly fits their risk profile.

When building scenarios - It certainly does!  Think about how the 2008 financial crisis reshaped economic forecasts. Those who clung to pre-crisis assumptions faced severe consequences. Acknowledging a new starting point means more resilient strategies. By Max Rudolph

Ever wonder why the ‘best practices’ in ERM often fail? Here’s the secret.  ERM that does not fit the company will be rejected.  It will not transform the company.  Imagine an ERM program that your whole company supports.  That is what you need.  By Dave Ingram

The future belongs to those who learn to adapt. In this, the 48th episode of Crossing Thin Ice, Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph dive into the importance of adaptability in modern business. Explore how the new Adaptor role will help companies to anticipate challenges, leverage opportunities, and embed resilience into every decision.

From China’s aging population and economic slowdown to India’s tech-fueled growth, from the decline of globalization to the rise of AI and climate disruptions, we explore how emerging risks intertwine to drive the future of our risks in 2025 and beyond. Whether you’re a board member, risk manager, or just live on this planet, join us as we navigate these seismic shifts and uncover the strategies needed to stay ahead.

In this episode of Crossing Thin Ice, we revisit the crucial topic of zoonotic spillover diseases and their evolving impact. From the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 to the growing concern about bird flu spreading through mammals, including dairy herds, the discussion highlights what we’ve learned—and what we still need to monitor. Special focus is given to wastewater surveillance as a tool for early virus detection and the role actuaries can play in pandemic preparedness. Tune in to explore these pressing issues and learn how demographic shifts, evolving viruses, and actuarial foresight can help us better prepare for future health crises.

Discover how LLMs are transforming the way risk professionals tackle complex problems, enhancing decision-making much like spreadsheets revolutionized calculations. Listen as we dive into the practical applications of LLMs for Chief Risk Officers, from environmental monitoring to scenario generation, breaking down how these tools can help manage uncertainty, identify weak spots, and even reveal what’s missing in risk assessments. By Dave Ingram

There are massive challenges for setting modeling assumptions in an era of increasing uncertainty. With insights into the impact of climate change, economic volatility, and emerging risks on actuarial models, this podcast explores the concept of resilience in modeling by adapting assumptions to manage volatility from unexpected events. Max Rudolph provides practical advice on addressing assumption uncertainty, integrating risk margins, and refining risk management strategies across assets and liabilities.

A risk-focused mindset ensures better informed, resilient decisions. This mindset leads to a Risk Management Decision-Making process that we describe in this podcast and explain how it differs from other decision-making approaches such as heuristics, satisficing, and cost-benefit analysis.  We feature the five essential components—risk awareness, diversification, risk appetite and tolerance, risk-reward management, and competitive advantage—and discuss how these elements transform decision making.

Once more, we dive into a critical discussion on regime change, the scenarios that could drive it, and for the first time talk about what might follow.  This episode of Crossing Thin Ice features insights from experts Max Rudolph, David Ingram, Raghu Ramachandran, and Jim Evans. Our conversation covers key drivers like climate change, debt levels, demographics, and technology, and explores tipping points that could dramatically reshape the risk landscape. Join us as we analyze potential scenarios and the vital role that risk management plays in navigating these transformations for insurers and beyond​.  Now available – documentation of how the scenarios are developed, summaries of the seven scenarios presented on the podcast and a look at our full set of 81 scenarios. https://riskviews3.wordpress.com/before-and-after-regime-change/