Crypto is Easy

Read the full Weekend Rundown here: https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/weekend-rundown-october-31-2021

This is the October 2021 issue of the Crypto is Easy newsletter, delivered by podcast.

In this episode, I talk about risk, opportunity, and how our expectations sometimes get the better of us. To read the text version and see the charts mentioned in the recording, go here: https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/crypto-is-easy-October-2021

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Weekly update. Also read here: https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/weekend-rundown-october-16-2021

Should you sell all of your earthly possessions and FOMO into bitcoin? Altcoins have lagged bitcoin for the past month—time to cash out and put the proceeds into bitcoin before ETFs and institutions send it to $288,000?

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Check out some interesting videos and articles I saw this week.

Happy Sunday!

A few days ago, I saw a social media poll that asked whether people think bitcoin’s most recent upswing from $40k to $55k is a bull run, bull trap, or too early to tell.

63% picked either bull trap or too early to tell.

Either we have a lot of people in disbelief that bitcoin’s price can go up from here or the poll’s respondents were excessively bearish.

At this point, for reasons I’ve shared for several weeks, you’re going to really have to strain to make the bear case. I talked about this in more detail in my update from October 6, 2021.

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It was already a stretch to say bitcoin went into a bear market earlier this year. That case was purely semantic—it was based on your personal definition of “bear market.” We didn’t see the types of price patterns, trading behaviors, or on-chain data we saw during any previous bear market. At the same time, that didn’t mean we had to stay in a bull market.

Since bitcoin’s price bottomed on June 22, 2021, it’s gone up for the past 110 days. It went down for only 69 days after April’s peak. If going down for 69 days triggers a bear market, does going up for 110 days trigger a bull market?

We shall see. As of today, any price down to $29,000 or up to $120,000 would seem normal, though I’d certainly start to worry should the price go near either of those extremes in the coming weeks.

I still expect we will get a result similar to what we’ve seen in the past when bitcoin has shown similar on-chain behaviors and price movements. In that case, bitcoin's price will reach a new all-time high in November, perhaps late October or early December. It’s about a two-month swing if history repeats itself.

Premium subscribers, I’ll keep you posted on that, altseason, and whatever else I see as we move forward.

Read below for some news and notes that you may enjoy.

Relax and enjoy the ride!

This is the first rundown of October! Welcome to “Q4,” as they say in the biz.

Prices have started running across the board and people are getting excited. I’ve been excited since August so our recent pump doesn’t change anything for me. I expect the market will go sideways and up a little bit over the next few months.

Over the past few months, bitcoin’s on-chain, trading, and price data matched roughly what we’ve seen in its seven previous bull market consolidations, each of which lasted 5-7 months. I’m assuming the market will play out roughly the same way this time, too.

While it’s great to celebrate a little pump, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. If you’re following my plan, you know what I’m doing, and it has nothing to do with projections and expectations.

My Plan for Bitcoin's Bull Market

What you missed in September:

This is the September 2021 issue of the Crypto is Easy newsletter, delivered by podcast.

In this episode, I talk about risk, opportunity, and how our expectations sometimes get the better of us. To read the text version and see the charts mentioned in the recording, go here: https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/crypto-is-easy-September-2021

Please follow me on Medium and Twitter.

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Robert Forster is the co-founder of Armor.Fi, an insurance protocol for decentralized finance. In this conversation, we talk about how insurance for DeFi is different from traditional insurance, how Armor handles all the nuances of insurance, and what that means for cryptocurrency in general. 

Also, Subscribe Now to Crypto is Easy. Relax and enjoy the ride!

This is the August 2021 issue of the Crypto is Easy newsletter, delivered by podcast.

In this episode, I talk about my expectations for the crypto market in the coming months. To read the text version and see the charts mentioned in the recording, go here: https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/crypto-is-easy-August-2021  

Please follow me on Medium and Twitter.

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This is the July 2021 issue of the Crypto is Easy newsletter, delivered by podcast.

In this episode, I talk about my expectations for the crypto market in the coming months. To read the text version and see the charts mentioned in the recording, go here: https://cryptoiseasy.substack.com/p/crypto-is-easy-july-2021

Please follow me on Medium and Twitter.

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