Millions of tonnes of cargo move across the world's oceans every day. On Current Intelligence, Signal Ocean AXS goes beyond the data to explain what those movements mean, why they matter, and what to watch next.

In this episode, Maria Bertzeletou (Senior Market Analyst) is joined by Luke Nickels (Senior Commodity Analyst) to look at how two very different forces, geopolitics and weather, are converging on the world's food supply.

They start with Q2 2026: soybean and corn shipments up around 15% year on year, while fertilizer volumes fell nearly 12% as Saudi exports roughly halved. From there, they trace the fertilizer shock back to the Arabian Gulf, where the Strait of Hormuz disruption has cut off close to a third of the world's urea exports, and explain why fertilizer, unlike oil, has no alternative route out.

Then the conversation turns to El Niño, now officially developed and expected to strengthen through the rest of 2026, and what it could mean for wheat, rice, corn, soybeans, sugar and palm oil across different growing regions.

Maria and Luke close with what this all means for freight: not fewer tonnes moving, but a possible reshuffling of origins, voyage lengths and vessel demand as the 2026-27 crop cycle unfolds.

Missed Episode 1? Go back and listen, it's where the thread on the energy crisis and dry bulk begins.

Everyone is watching oil markets and the Strait of Hormuz. But the quieter, and arguably bigger, story is happening in dry bulk.

In this episode, Senior Market Analyst Maria Bertzeletou and Vice President of Data Partnerships Hugo Rousse follow bauxite: the rock that becomes aluminium, and one of the most important commodities at the heart of the energy transition.

From a small village in southern France to the world's third-largest dry bulk cargo by volume, bauxite has quietly multiplied its share of global shipping from 2% in 2015 to nearly 10% today, driven by electric vehicles, solar panels, power grids, and the simple fact that it takes four tonnes of bauxite to produce one tonne of aluminium.

But the story right now is full of mixed signals. Guinea controls 81% of seaborne bauxite exports and is moving to cap them. China absorbs almost all of it. And the swing between "the quota bites" and "bauxite keeps flowing" represents roughly 46 Capesizes of demand, the difference between 1% and 4.6% growth for the Capesize market in 2026.

If you want one cargo that tells you whether the electric age is real, watch bauxite.