Cycle Economist

David has been working with Charles Nenner for 15 years and during that they’ve made some extraordinary calls. Every week they publish  their market calls. Most of them are pretty good. Their calls on oil have been right on the money. Same with their calls on the equity markets for the past two years. While no one’s perfect, they’ve been using cycles to give us a pretty good idea.

From The Desk of David Gurwitz

For new clients, we mentioned on CNBC in late 2014 that we would not see more than 5% upside in Equities until the big crash starting in 2017

At the time, the S&P Futures was trading around 2120 

Although it reached that level a few times afterwards, we felt being long stocks was risky, and many stocks lost a big portion of their market capitalization

 We sent the study below as #2016 - 013 Charles Nenner Research Center - Summary of 5 Economic Indicator Forecasts and Some Thoughts on "Fundamentals" - Jan 24, 2016 Sunday

It explains how cycles work

We quote in part from that study:

 Late in 2014, based on our cycle work, we noticed instability in the markets 

For our new subscribers, we review our philosophy: 

Cycles predict the ways investors will react to the news and events - based on rigorous analysis and calculations of past patterns. We do not know these events, but they do not have to happen for the effect to occur - at cycle tops or bottoms

For example, if the Fed only thinks about raising rates, it already has an effect At cycle tops, the media will bring up every negative detail they can come up with. At cycle bottoms, the opposite is true  - the media will bring up every positive detail they can come up with. When President Reagan began serving in 1981, it seemed that he could do no wrong - and longer term equity market cycles were up from that point,. Therefore, we consider these cyclical and target patterns to be more fundamental than so-called "fundamentals"., The problem arises when long term investors decide - based on cycles - to leave the markets and short term investors take over

Based upon recent market trends, David Gurwitz believes that the Brexit vote will come up short for EU opponents. Additionally, stock markets will soon be hitting a wall and project weakness by the end of June. Gold and silver topped but they're still on buy signals until further notice. Natgas is still on a buy signal and has an upside target of $2.87. Let's watch the Brexit vote and see if the system called it right.

David Gurwitz gave us another installment of Charles Nenner's cycle economic forecasts. It appears that gold has bottomed and the next upside target is $1338. David believes that it's going to take a while to get there. Interest rates are a question mark. David says the system is predicting rate hikes to about 2 percent. In light of the current economic conditions, that's real aggressive call. They're also expecting oil to increase throughout the summer, hitting a high of $67 per barrel. There's lots more calls about companies and commodities and the stock market. Take a look, because the trend is changing and you need to be ready.

Today we discussed Dr. Charles Nenner's economic forecast. For centuries, the second decade has seen a major war occur. With the economic cycles heading downward, Keynesianism has proven a complete failure. As Dr. Nenner says, there's no way that man can make a down cycle go up, at least not in the long run. Is China really the hope of the world? Is chaos setting in? These questions and more.

David Gurwitz returns for our new weekly show. Dr. Charles Nenner is calling for crude to move to around $56. To quote their latest missive, "We often wonder how the big guys at Goldman get away with predicting that Crude was going to go below 20 this year, together with so many other prominent market forecasters... Oil could drop below $20 US a barrel as the search for a level that brings supply and demand back into balance makes prices even more volatile"

"We called the high at 97 and then the low - first at 30 and then later adjusted to 26."

A close below 42.90 will give a short term sell signal from longs 

So let's follow this call and see where it winds up.

David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Research Center joined us today.

Gold and silver are looking very good through the end of August. After that it’s uncertain and it could test new lows.

Nat Gas is looking strong the next year. Oil is uncertain. Dollar is looking weak.

More to come from David and Charles. Stay tuned.

David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner & Company joined us for a review of 2015 and the accuracy of their calls. There were many correct calls for the year, chief among them, a forecast of a flat stock market, which has come to pass. Oil's price call was pretty spot on, but NatGas wasn't close. With a few minor exceptions, Nenner & Company was alarmingly accurate. Listen to the interview to find out what they're expecting for 2016.

The master cycle forecaster Charles Nenner is still calling for a possible cycle low for Gold in May, so be on the look out. Silver, however, is still on a buy signal. Stock markets could be topping, watch out for head and shoulders formation. There's lots more in the interview, which will become a regular, so take a good listen. Oh and oil and Natgas have probably hit their lowland are both on buy signals.