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This is your Cocoa podcast.
Hey everyone, welcome back to Daily Cocoa Price Tracker, I'm your host Vanessa Clark, and boy do we have some exciting market movements to talk about today. If you've been following cocoa futures, you know this has been quite the ride, and we're seeing some really interesting dynamics playing out right now.
Let's jump into the numbers. As of yesterday, July ICE New York cocoa closed up 30 points at 0.89 percent, while May ICE London cocoa number 7 closed up 22 points at 0.88 percent. Today we're seeing continued strength with July cocoa up another 22 points at 0.65 percent. The big story here is that cocoa prices are moving higher on prospects of a smaller global surplus, and that's huge for the market.
Here's what's driving this rally. StoneX just cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate down to 149,000 metric tons from their January forecast of 267,000 metric tons. That's a massive reduction, and they're citing risks to the West African cocoa crop from an expected El Niño weather event. They also trimmed their 2025/26 surplus forecast to 247,000 metric tons from 287,000 metric tons. So we're looking at a tightening supply picture that's definitely supporting prices.
On top of that, the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is disrupting global cocoa supplies. This is pushing up fertilizer costs, global shipping rates, insurance costs, and fuel prices, which all feed into higher costs for cocoa importers. That's a supportive factor for prices across the board.
Now, it's not all bullish. We're seeing some headwinds from weak chocolate demand. Chocolate candy sales in North America fell 1.3 percent in the thirteen weeks ending March 22, and Easter chocolate sales dropped about 5 percent compared to last year. Plus, cocoa grindings have been declining in North America and Europe, though Asia surprised with stronger numbers.
The supply story remains complex with drought conditions affecting major producers in West Africa, while current inventories remain relatively abundant. But with that surplus shrinking significantly, we're definitely in a supportive environment for cocoa prices.
Thanks so much for tuning in to Daily Cocoa Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe and join us next time for more market insights and price updates.
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