1. Oil is selling off this morning. The media is saying it is due to lockdowns taking place in China again, but I'm seeing weakness in agriculture and the industrial metals as well. Hopefully, there could be some type of truce reached in Ukraine and this war can end. 

2. The financial stocks are weak today and this must be watched very closely. Every trader is now watching the yield curve like a hawk. 2's and 10's have not inverted yet, but they continue to flatten. 5's and 30's are close to inverting now as the yields are basically the same. This is likely the reason for the weakness in the bank stocks.

3. Gold is falling today as well. Gold futures (GC) are lower by $17.00 to 1936 an ounce. As I've said before, if this war ends I think gold will pull back or even see a major sell off. On the flip side, if the war continues or escalates gold will be fine as it is the ultimate fear trade play.

4. Bitcoin is breaking above resistance at 46,000 today on the futures chart. This is a very positive move, but a weekly close up here would be a major positive for crypto.

1. Markets are pulling back today after another big rally yesterday. This Is actually good for the bulls as you do not want to go straight up in a parabolic run. 

2. Everyone is watching the oil price as the Russia/ Ukraine conflict continues. Today, crude is trading up $5.00 to $114.50 a barrel. It is really difficult to see oil fall much with this war going on at this time. Earlier today it was reported that President Putin wants to get paid in Rubles for energy. He essentially backed stopped his currency and this should help Russia stabilize in the near term. The Russian stock market will reopen tomorrow.   

3. Gold is higher today and that is the ultimate fear trade. So while it has pulled back it will likely hold up as long as this war goes on.

4. Crypto is basically flat today.

1. Markets are stalling today after a big 4 day rally last week. Energy stocks (XLE) are once again very strong today as crude trades up $5.50 to 108.70 a barrel. It really is very difficult to see oil decline very much with the Russia/ Ukraine war continuing. 

2. Bond yields are also on the move today. The 10-year US Treasury Note is now around 2.24%, jumping 9 basis points today. Last week, the FOMC raised rates for the first time in 3 years. The central bank said they would raise rates at every meeting this year. Either way, the Federal Reserve is still way behind the curve.  

3. Gold and silver have retreated from their recent highs, but as long as this Russia/ Ukraine war takes place The precious metals will likely be range bound in the near term.

4. Crypto is consolidating in a range as well right now. Unfortunately, this is consolidating the lower range of its chart which is slightly negative. The 45,000 level is still strong daily chart resistance right now.

1. It's that time of the month again. Options expiration for March is Friday. This is a quadruple witching options expiration which means there are four asset classes expiring this week. It makes for a very choppy and erratic week especially in the popular stocks. I call this the real shark week as the institutional traders move stocks away from the strike prices where the retail options traders have placed their bets. 

2. This Wednesday the FOMC will conclude a two day meeting. The Fed (central bank) is expected to raise rates by a quarter point (25-basis points). This should be baked into the stock market already as Fed Chairman Powell already stated this a couple weeks ago. The Fed also ended its QE bond buying program last week. 

3. Chinese stocks that are traded in the US are getting slammed again today. Reports that there is a COVID outbreak in China is not helping these equities. These stocks have been free falling for months already and really cannot be traded at this stage of the game. 

4. Yields are surging up again this morning by 10 basis points on the 10-year US Treasury note..    

5. Gold/Silver pulling back today as expected during a quad witch. They’ve been strong and now they get to take a breather.

6. Bitcoin still looking weak but indecisive at this point. Larger timeframe chart is not looking strong.

1. Finally, markets are bouncing sharply higher today after a 4-day sell-off. Obviously, the Russia/ Ukraine war is still the main geopolitical event that everyone is following. As of right now there is a chance that talks will lead to some type of peace deal. Who knows? I certainly don't. Either way, markets were very oversold and tested the February 24th lows and so far are being defended down here by the institutional crowd.  

2. Gold is selling off on the news, but it has had one heck of a run recently. It proves to everyone when things hit the fan precious metals are still the so-called safe haven,.the ultimate fear trade play. If there is a peace deal everyone should expect a further decline from this overbought chart condition.

3. Crypto currencies are bouncing after a leaked statement by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen praising Biden's Executive Order on crypto currencies. She later removed the post, but basically it stated that crypto will be regulated. The markets like the news so far.

1. The Russia / Ukraine war is still front and center. I believe this is now day 8 for the conflict. Oil prices spiked overnight to $130.00 a barrel. While this commodity is overbought and extended there is nothing to say where it is going. If there is a peace resolution then oil will drop sharply, but I'm not sure that will happen anytime soon. There is simply an attempt to cancel a super-power, which I don't see working. This could be really bad for the world and once NATO gets more involved we could be looking at an even bigger War , potentially WW-3.  This is not a good situation right now.

2. Gold continues to outperform with the Russia/Ukraine crisis. Like oil it can continue to climb as it is the ultimate fear trade. People want a hard asset as opposed to a fiat currency or even crypto. Gold is outperforming crypto right now by a large margin. That tells me precious metals are the ultimate currency.

3.Financial stocks have been tanking lately. In fact European financial stocks have led the decline and look horrible on the charts. Deutsche Bank AG (DB) and Credit Suisse Group (CS)  are making new 52-week lows and CS stock is close to an all time low. That tells me Europe has bigger problems than the rest of the world right now.    

4. Rumors that Putin has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize for ending the pandemic are totally false.

1. The Russia/Ukraine war is still dominating the news and the stock market action. In all of the years that I have been trading I have never seen nor remember a country getting canceled. Sure, the social media companies canceled many conservative voices, but this time around we have corporate giants canceling a nation. Even in Nazi germany there were companies that were doing business with Germany at the time. This is not anything like that and Russia is being canceled. 

Oh, I do believe the U.S. is still buying oil & gas from Russia though. 

2.  Oil traded over $110.00 a barrel this morning and there is really no sign of a pullback as long as this war keeps escalating. Earlier today, OPEC announced a slight increase and that will not move the needle in the price. At this time, only a resolution will relieve the oil spike. 

3. Fed Chairman Jay Powell will start his 2-day testimony on Capitol Hill today. In his prepared remarks he said there will be a rate hike in March. Some people are expecting a 50 basis point hike, but I think he will raise it by just 25 basis points. 

4. Gold is pulling back a little, but it has had a huge move as the fear trade is alive and well right now. 

5. Bitcoin is also on the move trading back above 44K. There is a lot of daily chart resistance around 46,000.

1. The Russia/Ukraine war is still going on and taking center stage. There were supposed to be talks taking place today in Belarus but that has not turned into a peace deal yet. In fact, the Ukraine Foreign Minister said that Ukraine is not ready to surrender or capitulate. So this story continues and oil prices are higher by 3.6% to $94.95 a barrel. I would not look for a meaningful pullback in crude until this situation calms down or ends. As for the markets, the S&P 500 has rallied 270 points in the past 2 sessions, so a pullback was in order anyway. 

2. Gold is up again as the fear trade seems to be in play. Any resolution in the war should be a negative for the gold price. Today, gold is back up $27.00 to $1915.00 an ounce. 

3. Bitcoin is rallying today a bit, but still trades below 40,000. Traders must continue to monitor this chart pattern over the next week or so. Right now it's hanging in there, but bearish consolidation will signal another decline is coming.

1 Ukraine war underway and could be over shortly. Will China broker a peace deal and replace the Ukraine president. He’s cleaning up on oil prices and commodities.

2 Markets had a huge gap down yesterday and then staged a massive reversal. Today we had follow-through to the upside. Oil spiked over $100 and then sold off to $91 per barrel. Could pull back a little more, if there’s a peace deal.

3 Gold/Silver spiked on the fear trade. If there’s more escalation of the war then it could go higher. It’s been outperforming crypto.

4 Bitcoin got slammed but has rebounded to nearly $39k. As long as it stays above $35k it will live to fight another day.

1. This morning, the S&P 500 Index (SPY) is bouncing a little as the market thinks the Russia / Ukraine tensions will not increase. I have no idea what is going to happen there, but eventually markets become immune to the same geopolitical event. This event has had a major affect on the price of crude oil which remains above $90.00 a barrel. After the Russia story we will all go back to talking about the Federal Reserve and the coming rate hikes.

2. Yesterday, the S&P 500 Index was down 9.68% for the year. Now everyone is talking about the S&P 500 index falling into correction territory. At this time, the S&P 500 Indexis simply back-testing the January lows. They still have not been breached yet. Every closing session will tell me more.

3. Mortgage applications drop 13.1% last week to lowest level since Dec. 2019. Refinancing applications down 15% and purchase applications down 10%. This is an indication that rate hikes are going to have an adverse affect on housing and real estate. (Except in Florida)

4. Gold and silver have been rising based on Ukraine war fears. Once the situation is resolved, Nick believes it will pull back.

5. Bitcoin back under 40k. Is Bitcoin really a safe haven. Truckers’ crypto wallets have be taken by the Canadian government.