Daily Paper Cast

Authors:

Caiqi Zhang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li, Yulong Chen, Dharshan Kumaran, Nigel Collier

Title:

Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17708v1

Abstract:

Reliable confidence estimation is increasingly central to the trustworthy deployment of language models: a calibrated estimate of the probability that an output is correct decides what to ship, what to escalate, and what to retry. Existing confidence estimators, however, share one design premise: they only read the current inference process, either by introspecting on it, scoring its token probabilities, or resampling it. We argue that the current inference is not a sufficient basis for confidence. We propose XConf (eXperiential Confidence): estimating confidence together with the model's accumulated experience. The experience is stored as a record of the model's own graded past episodes, each holding the task, the model's reflection, its stated confidence, the outcome, and a lesson written once the grade arrived. Given a new task, XConf's Recall stage retrieves past episodes on similar tasks met with a similar stated confidence, and reads off their historical success rate; its Reflect stage shows the model this record, has it name its recurring failure mode, and restate a confidence now informed by its own track records. Our estimator is format-general, requiring no logit access or weight updates, and costs only one answer generation. Across nine benchmarks spanning reasoning, coding, multimodal QA, and interactive agents, and four models from three families, XConf beats or matches ten-sample self-consistency in discrimination (AUROC) on 23 of 24 comparisons, with much lower calibration error (ECE), at a tenth of the generation cost. Used for selective prediction, abstaining on the 10% least-confident episodes raises the delivered success rate by up to 8.7 points on agent tasks. We therefore see experiential confidence estimation as a new paradigm for future general-purpose confidence estimation.

Authors:

Jeonghye Kim, Minseon Kim, Young Jin Kim, Matheus Pereira, Marc-Alexandre Côté, Alessandro Sordoni, Xingdi Yuan, Zhengyan Shi

Title:

ProgramDistill: From Interactive Web Apps to Verifiable Reference-Guided SWE Tasks

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18805v1

Abstract:

Coding agents are typically evaluated with desired behavior specified through issues or instructions. In practical web development, however, agents may need to infer behavior from working software and implement it in an incomplete application. We introduce ProgramDistill, a benchmark evaluating coding agents on features discovered through interaction with fully functional reference applications. We build ProgramDistill by factorizing applications into features of different granularities, each associated with replayable behaviors executable via its gold patch. Our pipeline, mine-craft-patch, discovers 1,975 replay-verified behaviors across 26 applications and constructs 4,063 tasks without human intervention. Across nine frontier coding agents, GPT-6 Astra and Claude Opus 5 achieve 49.2% and 28.8% success on cumulative workflows in full-application reconstruction. In partial-application reconstruction, success falls from 100% to 64.0% and from 96% to 32% as restoration depth increases from 1 to 8. ProgramDistill thus provides a scalable benchmark with controlled difficulty for evaluating and diagnosing coding agents, and a natural basis for future curriculum-based training.

Authors:

Yizhuo Li, Jianhao Yan, Yun Luo, Zhi Wang, Futing Wang, Rong-Xi Tan, Kanghui Tian, Ganqu Cui, Ning Ding, Peilin Zhao, Yafu Li, Yu Cheng

Title:

Rethinking Critic Learning in PPO: Understanding and Mitigating Value Flattening

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18708v1

Abstract:

In reinforcement learning for large language models, Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) commonly uses a critic to estimate state values and reduce the variance of policy updates. However, we uncover a systematic failure mode in PPO critics, which we call Value Flattening: state values, estimated from multiple Monte Carlo continuations, change sharply across intermediate states while critic predictions remain comparatively flat. We further observe this phenomenon in a controlled FrozenLake environment and find that it becomes more pronounced as the state space grows. Our theoretical and empirical analyses relate Value Flattening to an implicit variance penalty in the critic loss and redundant updates from temporally correlated states with similar gradients. Motivated by these findings, we introduce SParse Proximal Policy Optimization (SP$^3$O), which applies the value loss to only a few well-separated states in each response to mitigate both effects. Experiments on Qwen3-Base show that SP$^3$O with only three states supervised per response can mitigate Value Flattening and consistently improve the learned policy across model sizes and evaluation suites. Together, our results identify Value Flattening as an important yet overlooked failure mode of critic learning in standard PPO and show that a simple sparse supervision strategy can mitigate it.

Authors:

Shijie Lian, Bin Yu, Zhaolong Shen, Xiaopeng Lin, Yichao Du, Zhirui Zhang, Laurence T. Yang, Kai Chen

Title:

ActionPiece: Rethinking Action Tokenization for Autoregressive Vision-Language-Action Models

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18487v1

Abstract:

Action tokenizers play a central role in autoregressive vision-language-action (VLA) models, determining both the targets for policy training and the executable commands recovered from predicted tokens. Their fidelity is commonly evaluated using pointwise reconstruction metrics such as mean squared error (MSE), yet small individual errors do not fully characterize how faithfully action adjustments across demonstrations are preserved. After compression, similar actions may still cluster around a representative motion, while the adjustments needed for different contexts are diminished, distorted, or even reversed. We introduce physical rank consistency (PRC) to measure how well tokenization preserves local physical distance rankings after reconstruction. Evaluating decoded actions provides a common reference across token vocabularies and decoder architectures, complementing pointwise accuracy with a measure of relational fidelity. We further present ActionPiece, which preserves physical action relationships through joint supervision of representation learning and quantization. Physical rank preservation supervises near-far ordering in encoder and quantized feature distances, while quantization regularization applies the same ordering to codeword assignment distributions. Both objectives augment reconstruction, producing discrete action tokens for standard autoregressive policy learning and execution through a frozen decoder. Under the same Qwen3-VL-4B policy training setup, ActionPiece achieves 94.8% on LIBERO and 68.8% on unseen LIBERO-Plus, with additional evaluations reaching 71.9% on SimplerEnv and 51.5% across VLA-Arena L0-L2. Component ablations show that the two objectives jointly improve PRC and policy success, demonstrating the value of physical relationship supervision for action tokenization.

Authors:

Xingyang Li, Dongyun Zou, Shining Zhang, Jiacheng Chen, Haocheng Xi, Lvmin Zhang, Jun-Yan Zhu, Song Han, Zhekai Zhang, Yujun Lin, Muyang Li

Title:

VC-Attention: Value Smoothing and Softmax Casting for Low-bit Attention

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.15810v1

Abstract:

Diffusion Transformers deliver state-of-the-art video generation, but their long spatiotemporal sequences make attention the dominant deployment cost, and a deployable low-bit kernel must be accurate and fast. Accuracy is limited by outliers: a block's quantization scale is set by its largest entries, leaving typical entries confined to a narrow range of representable values. Prior work smooths queries and keys, but value outliers follow no fixed channel or spatiotemporal structure and remain the dominant source of output error. Speed is limited by softmax: low-bit Tensor Cores accelerate only the two matrix multiplications, so the high-precision exponential between them becomes the longest pipeline stage on datacenter GPUs. We propose VC-Attention, a training-free low-bit attention framework that addresses both by pairing Value smoothing with a fused probability Cast. V-Smooth reorders value tokens by lightweight online clustering, so the tokens in a hardware block quantize well together. It quantizes only the residual after subtracting the block mean, and restores that mean from the row sum the online softmax already maintains. ExpCast-FP8 maps log-domain scores directly to E4M3 probability codes with one fused multiply-add, eliminating the FP32 exponential and the format conversion. We implement VC-Attention for B200, B300, H200, RTX PRO 6000, and RTX 5090. Across Wan2.2, LongCat-Video, HunyuanVideo-1.5, and MiniMax-H3, VC-Attention improves fidelity over low-bit baselines, speeds up the attention kernel over BF16 FlashAttention-4 by 1.46-1.59x on datacenter Blackwell and Hopper and by 2.3-3.6x on workstation cards, and generates a clip 1.13-1.19x and 1.36-1.70x faster end to end.

Authors:

Yifan Zhang, Yunheng Zou, Shaokun Zhang, Jian Hu, Hao Zhang, Binfeng Xu, Jan Kautz, Yi Dong

Title:

Agora: Git as Shared Memory for Collective AutoResearch

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.18094v1

Abstract:

Autonomous research loops such as AutoResearch show that one coding agent can improve a training setup unattended. Run several of them and each session starts from scratch, so more agents tend to mean more duplicated search rather than more discovery. Agora is a shared memory for such agents: research is recorded as an append-only directed acyclic graph (DAG) stored in Git, so that every claim is a commit anyone can check out and rerun. Each result, insight, hypothesis, verification, and report is an immutable commit whose parent edges say what it builds on; a derived index exposes the frontier, the neglected branches, and the verification status of each claim, and a diversity-aware selection rule keeps the community from collapsing onto one leader. We describe the system and report its first sustained use: a run of nearly 12 days in which 13 language-model workers, with no assigned tasks and no central planner, worked on a weight-transfer problem. Given 141 pretrained donor models and a frozen 119.6M-parameter attention-SSM hybrid whose dimensions match no donor, the workers had to initialize the target without training data or gradient updates. They published 1,703 contributions and drove the evaluator from 3.39 to 1.899 bits per byte, closing 62% of the gap to a trained GPT-2 124M. The winning recipe compresses donor next-token statistics into the target's embedding and output head, then adds a short-range context signal through sparse edits to attention, feed-forward, and state-space blocks. Its 145-commit ancestry spans 15 accounts, and 165 independent reproductions were posted, none of which failed. We describe the single mid-run human intervention that pulled the community out of a monoculture, what the trace does and does not establish, and the controlled comparison that would settle whether shared research state improves discovery per unit of compute.

Authors:

Sehee Kim, Yumin Choi, Minki Kang, Sung Ju Hwang

Title:

EvolveTrade: Experience-Driven Policy Refinement for Self-Evolving LLM Trading Agents

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17632v1

Abstract:

Large language model (LLM) trading agents can combine market data, news, and executable analysis, but their behavior is often controlled by static hand-written tool-use policies that are fixed before deployment. This limits their ability to adapt how they gather evidence, invoke tools, verify signals, and manage risk under changing market regimes. We introduce EvolveTrade, a self-evolving framework that treats the system prompt of a tool-using trading agent as a text-parameterized policy. After each update interval, a Policy Agent revises this policy using accumulated decision traces and realized portfolio feedback, while keeping the backbone LLM fixed. The updated policy is then used for the next batch of trading decisions, enabling the agent to refine its information-acquisition and portfolio-construction procedure over time. Experiments across multiple market regimes and two LLM backbones show that EvolveTrade often improves Sharpe Ratio and Cumulative Return over fixed-policy LLM baselines, achieving the improved SR and CR in most evaluated settings. Behavioral analyses further show that self-evolved policies increase code-mediated analysis and activate regime-relevant computations; case-level policy-to-return attributions trace how policy-induced allocation changes contribute to realized return differences. These results suggest that adapting the reusable procedure governing tool use is a key direction for building more robust LLM trading agents.

Authors:

Mingyang Chen, Shengdong Chen, Xiaoxiao Fu, Bosheng Gong, Haoyuan Guo, Bowen Li, Jiawen Li, Kejun Li, Tianpeng Li, Yin Liu, Haoze Sun, Zeyang Tian, Meng Wang, Xinmiao Wu, Jiangqiao Yan, Zining Zhao

Title:

Zing-0.5: Toward Playable Worlds with Real-Time Joint Action and Text Control

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.17909v1

Abstract:

We introduce Zing-0.5, a 5B autoregressive world model designed for playability: users can explore generated worlds, influence unfolding events, and respond to the resulting feedback through joint keyboard and online text control. Our approach brings together three technical contributions: (1) Unified action and text conditioning, combining magnitude-aware keyboard inputs with temporally aligned text instructions and jointly annotated videos to learn navigation and event control within the same sequence; (2) Event-scale supervision for incremental generation, using a segment-level teacher trained on connected multi-prompt videos to supervise a block-level causal student through distribution-matching distillation; and (3) Low-cost real-time interaction, combining four-step generation with context-preserving streaming to support 832 x 480 inference at 24 FPS at an estimated server rental cost of approximately USD 0.009 per stream-minute. Zing-0.5 achieves an overall score of 81.0 and a consistency score of 88.5 across 158 WBench Navigation cases. A joint-control demonstration shows a text-directed event change during continued navigation without restarting generation. We release the model weights, inference code, and Zing-SGLang serving implementation to support further work on playable generated worlds.

Authors:

Peter Chen, Xi Chen, Wotao Yin, Tianyi Lin

Title:

A Zeroth-Order Paradigm for LLM Preference Alignment

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.19144v1

Abstract:

Direct preference alignment methods are widely used to align large language models (LLMs) with human preferences because of their computational and memory efficiency. However, likelihood displacement motivates alternative ways to extract information from preference pairs with small likelihood margins. In this paper, we propose and analyze Comparison-based Preference Optimization (ComPO), a zeroth-order alignment method based on comparison oracles. ComPO extracts directional information from these pairs without directly optimizing a differentiable preference loss on them. We establish a convergence guarantee for its basic offline scheme under smoothness, gradient sparsity, and compatibility between the oracle and a latent objective. We further introduce online ComPO, which retains the offline comparison mechanism and uses unlabeled policy generations for reverse-KL control relative to a reference policy. Following the coverage perspective of preference fine-tuning, we establish a performance guarantee for a basic constrained scheme under local coverage and in-distribution pairwise reward accuracy. Experiments on Mistral, Llama, Gemma-2, Qwen3, and Gemma-3 models demonstrate improvements over existing direct alignment methods, including length-controlled win rates, with pair-level diagnostics providing evidence consistent with mitigating likelihood displacement.

Authors:

Zheyuan Zhang, Alvin Zhang, Daniel Khashabi, Tianmin Shu

Title:

Continual Learning Mechanisms Compose for Long-Horizon Memorization

Arxiv:

http://arxiv.org/abs/2609.06986v1

Abstract:

Language models may need to internalize information that arrives over time and retain it through many subsequent updates. To study this challenge, we introduce long-horizon memorization, a setting in which a model learns 100 query-answer tasks through continual supervised fine-tuning without retaining earlier training examples or receiving task identifiers at inference. Sequential updates cause catastrophic forgetting, and no single continual learning mechanism we evaluate maintains strong retention at this horizon. We hypothesize that mechanisms addressing complementary sources of forgetting will be more effective when composed. We organize these compositions along two design dimensions. Data, function, and weight anchors specify what prior information each update should preserve, while low-rank allocation rules determine where successive updates are retained. To test this hypothesis systematically, we construct three distinct 100-task memorization datasets. We introduce task-level successive halving to search the combinatorial design space and use a factorial experiment to measure individual and interaction effects. Our best method combines all three anchors with merged LoRA, ranks among the top 3 methods in all datasets, and raises average final retention from 1.2% under naive sequential fine-tuning to 34.9%, a 28-fold improvement. The data anchor and merged LoRA provide the largest average gains and interact super-additively on all three datasets. Together, these results show that composing complementary mechanisms substantially improves long-horizon memorization beyond what any individual mechanism achieves.