Daily Updates on Russian Invasion of Ukraine

It is official. Russia's 2026 Offensive has failed. I examine reports that Ukrainian forces have dismantled the Russian salient north of Lyman, driving Russian troops back toward the Zherebets River and potentially restoring parts of the front to its May 2025 position. Using OSINT mapping and Russian Telegram and milblogger accounts, I separate what is reported from what remains uncertain—including claims of routed regiments, exhausted units, disrupted supply lines, and pressure around Ivanivka, Terny, and Yampol.

The stakes extend well beyond one salient. Lyman is an important approach to the Donetsk fortress belt, including Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. If Russia has lost ground that took more than a year of costly fighting to gain, its infantry-led path toward those cities becomes harder still. I also assess Russian-source allegations that false reporting concealed Ukraine’s counterattack from senior command—and what that says about logistics, force quality, and Moscow’s ability to sustain its offensive.

00:00 The reported collapse north of Lyman

01:45 What a salient is and why it mattered

03:15 Mapping Ukraine’s advance toward the Zherebets River

06:15 Ivanivka, Terny, and pressure on Russian positions

08:45 Could Ukraine establish a river bridgehead?

10:30 Why Lyman matters for Slovyansk and Kramatorsk

13:23 Russian assessments of military decline

16:02 Closing reflection on September 11

#UkraineRussiaWar #Lyman #Donetsk #Kramatorsk #RussianMilitary #OSINT

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

HUGE STRIKES LAST NIGHT. I examine the reported overnight Ukrainian strike wave against Russian industrial and logistics targets: FirePoint’s claimed FP-5 Flamingo missile hits on the Volgograd Promkets chemical facility, a fire at Rosneft’s Saratov oil refinery, damage at Saratov’s Ozon logistics hub, and a reported AN-196 Luty strike on the Azot chemical plant in Berezniki, Perm Krai. The strategic question is whether attacks on refining, chemical inputs, warehousing, and air traffic can impose compounding costs on Russia’s war-supporting economy.

I also compare Russian claims of 777 intercepted Ukrainian drones with open-source estimates nearer 320, and assess Russia’s own overnight attack: 161 drones and an S-800 Banderol, according to Ukraine, with deadly consequences in Pavlohrad. Finally, I cover the unusually high reported vehicle and unmanned ground-system losses, Russia’s digital-video-equipped Molina drones, and a wounded Ukrainian defender’s FPV-drone defense during an evacuation.

00:00 Overnight Deep-Strike Wave Across Russia

01:59 FP-5 Flamingo Strike on Volgograd

04:59 Azot Plant Strike in Perm Krai

07:16 Russia’s Overnight Attacks on Ukraine

09:53 Battlefield Losses and Drone Adaptation

12:10 Evacuation Under FPV Drone Attack

13:12 Strategic Context and Closing

#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #UkraineStrikes #RussianOilRefineries #FlamingoMissile #Pavlohrad

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I separate the verified facts from the unproven claims surrounding the Russian Shahed/Geran-family drone that crossed from Ukraine into Moldova, briefly entered Romanian airspace, and ultimately crashed near Mihăileni Vechi. Moldova closed its airspace, delaying Zelensky’s departure and six other flights, while Romanian NATO surveillance and Spanish F-18s monitored the incursion. What remains unestablished is whether Zelensky’s aircraft was specifically targeted or how close the drone came to it.

I also examine reported Russian setbacks near Lyman, Ukraine’s rapid weapons-production cycle, and Russian strikes on food logistics around Kyiv. I assess Garry Kasparov’s call for protected Ukrainian skies, Medvedev’s demands for a settlement on Russia’s terms, coercive recruitment of migrants, and the Makhachkala port strike against the Russia-Iran Caspian logistics corridor. Finally, I consider reports that CIA Director John Ratcliffe could receive a larger role in U.S.-Russia negotiations—and whether diplomacy is confronting Putin’s stated war aims.

00:00 Shahed Drone Breaches Moldovan and Romanian Airspace

02:41 What Is Verified—and What Remains Unproven

06:41 Zelensky in Canada and Ukraine’s Immediate Priorities

09:22 FSB Plot and Strikes on Ukraine’s Food Logistics

14:05 Russian War Aims, Nuclear Threats, and Recruitment

20:08 Can U.S. Diplomacy Change Putin’s Calculus?

25:16 Russia-Iran Logistics and Ukraine’s Strategic Strikes

27:45 What Russia’s War Aims Mean for Ukraine

#UkraineRussiaWar #Zelensky #NATO #Moldova #RussianDrones #AirDefense

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine how Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign applies Sun Tzu’s principles: striking weak points, forcing Russia to disperse air defenses, and targeting refineries, ports, airfields, and military infrastructure. I also assess the command failures revealed by reports of Russian one-way infantry assaults.

00:00 Ukraine’s Expanding Deep-Strike Campaign

03:03 Military Targets Behind the Sochi Narrative

04:59 Petraeus on Drone Saturation and Air Defenses

09:33 Sun Tzu: Strike Weakness, Not Strength

11:22 Geography, Dispersal, and Strategic Pressure

13:40 Preparation, Intelligence, and Targeting Systems

14:47 Sun Tzu’s Warning Against Wasting Soldiers

#UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineWar #SunTzu #DroneWarfare #MilitaryStrategy #Geopolitics

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine the reported Ukrainian strikes that reached from Sochi and Novorossiysk to Makhachkala, Dagestan—Russia’s only ice-free deep-water port on the Caspian Sea. Makhachkala is described as a key Russia-Iran logistics node for military-related cargo, including components and Shahed-type attack UAVs. Ukraine also reported damage to fuel-oil storage in Novorossiysk and three Russian vessels: the Admiral Essen frigate, the Pyotr Morgunov landing ship, and a Zelenodolsk-class small minesweeper.

I also look at the reported 3,000-kilometer FB-1 drone strike on a Siberian gas-processing facility, along with strikes on radar, UAV, command, and ammunition sites. The strategic question is whether Russia can defend an immense rear area while concentrating air-defense assets around Moscow, favored locations, and the front. I close with Russia’s overnight UAV attacks on Ukraine, including the Olena sunflower-oil plant and a reported double-tap strike on rescuers in Dnipro.

00:00 What Ukraine Reportedly Hit in 48 Hours

02:55 Three Warships Reportedly Hit at Novorossiysk

07:12 Strikes on Russian Drones, Radar, and Command Posts

08:58 The 3,000-Kilometer Siberia Drone Strike

11:28 Battlefield Losses and Combat Engagements

14:51 Heroism, Strategy, and Sun Tzu

16:44 Project Constantine

#UkraineRussiaWar #Makhachkala #Novorossiysk #RussianNavy #DroneWarfare #CaspianSea

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

Sun Tzu would be Proud of Ukraine. Russia is trying to turn this war into a contest of manpower, ammunition, industrial capacity, and endurance. I explain why Ukraine’s answer is to refuse Russia’s terms—using intelligence, technology, speed, and asymmetric warfare to produce disproportionate effects with limited resources.

I examine how AI-guided drones, Ukraine’s new RK-19 air-defense missile, and the emerging Patriot interceptor strategy reflect Sun Tzu’s central principles. I also look at Russia’s difficulty adapting, Germany’s military support, the AfD’s connections to Moscow, Lavrov’s threats, and why this war may continue into 2027.

CHAPTERS

0:00 Sun Tzu Looks Over Zelensky’s Shoulder

1:12 Ukraine Refuses to Fight Russia’s War

3:01 AI-Guided Strikes Increase Tenfold

3:24 Ukraine Unveils the RK-19 Missile

3:50 PAC-2 vs. PAC-3 Explained

5:20 Why the War May Continue Into 2027

7:51 How Deep Do the AfD’s Russia Ties Go?

11:19 Lavrov’s Threat and the “Buffer Zone” Claim

13:24 Putin, Trump, Xi—and the Patriot Stockpile Problem

15:11 Viewer Questions and the Sun Tzu Verdict

#Ukraine #Russia #SunTzu #UkraineWar #MilitaryStrategy

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine Russia’s fuel shortages, collapsing Black Sea oil and wheat exports, grain glut, farm-bankruptcy risk, sanctions pressure on Aeroflot, and rising military spending. Ukraine’s strikes and blocked logistics are exposing how Russia’s war economy depends on energy, transport, and export access.

00:00 Europe’s Energy Shortage and Russia’s Grain Surplus

01:41 War Costs and Russian Oil Export Decline

04:00 Fuel Shortages and Belarus Supply Limits

05:08 Aeroflot, Sanctions, and Transport Strain

06:36 Russia’s Grain Glut and Broken Export Logistics

08:27 Falling Corn and Wheat Exports

10:04 Broader Economic Stress Across Russia

12:10 Military Spending and Fuel Lines

#RussiaEconomy #UkraineWar #BlackSea #OilExports #GrainExports #FuelShortage

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine the reported Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Novorossiysk, where fires were reported at the naval base, military port facilities, and a fuel-oil terminal. Ukrainian officials said warships, including Kalibr missile carriers, were targeted, but the precise damage to vessels remains unconfirmed. That uncertainty matters: Novorossiysk has been a key Black Sea Fleet haven as Ukraine has repeatedly threatened Russian positions in Crimea.

I also assess reported strikes across Belgorod, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk; the first declared UAV threat and airport closures in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug, home to major oil and gas processing facilities; and Russia’s overnight attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro. On the battlefield, Ukraine reports Russian casualties surpassing 1.5 million killed and wounded, while a counteroffensive near Liman has reportedly restored roughly 200 square kilometers and pushed back a Russian salient. The strategic question is whether Russia can protect its fleet, energy infrastructure, and front lines simultaneously.

00:00 Russian casualty threshold and overnight strikes

05:02 Strikes in Belgorod, Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk

07:45 Russian attacks on Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro

09:37 Russia’s reported 1.5 million casualties

13:21 Liman counteroffensive and Russian setbacks

16:26 Deterrence, air defense, and support for Ukraine

17:20 Remembering Borys and Project Constantine

#Ukraine #RussiaUkraineWar #Novorossiysk #BlackSeaFleet #RussianCasualties #NATO

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine Germany’s announcement that it will urgently transfer PAC-2 Patriot interceptors from national stocks and pursue contracts for roughly 1,000 Patriot missiles for Ukraine through an EU-backed loan. With winter approaching and Russian ballistic-missile and drone attacks intensifying, this is more than another aid pledge: it could directly affect Ukraine’s ability to protect cities, energy infrastructure, and civilian life. Germany is also increasing AIM-9 deliveries, while Ukraine seeks additional IRIS-T missiles and Britain, France, Italy, and other partners pursue further air-defense support.

I also look at the strategic political context behind this decision: the AfD’s electoral rise, migration and economic pressures inside Germany, Kyiv’s talks with Trump’s envoys, and Kremlin messaging around possible trilateral negotiations. The central question is whether Europe can sustain the industrial capacity and political resolve needed to deny Russia leverage through winter and beyond.

00:00 Germany’s 1,000 Patriot Interceptor Decision

03:42 European Air Defense Support Expands

10:31 Migration, Populism, and Europe’s Internal Pressures

13:03 Russia’s Wartime Strains and Kremlin Messaging

16:05 Trump-Putin Contacts and Competing Peace Claims

20:15 Patriot Priorities, Taurus, and Germany’s Choices

23:04 Nord Stream’s Strategic Legacy

#Ukraine #PatriotMissiles #Germany #AirDefense #NATO #RussiaUkraineWar

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR

I examine early reports that Ukraine’s Third Army Corps has cut a Russian salient north of Lyman after a four-month counterattack, reportedly liberating more than 200 square kilometers. If confirmed, this is more than a local map change: it could disrupt or delay Russia’s planned northern Donbas offensive. The timing is notable, as Ukraine says Moscow has moved its deadline to capture all of Donbas from December 31, 2026, to March 31, 2027.

I also cover the major exchange of long-range strikes overnight. Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the Rosneft Saratov refinery—said to process about 4.8 million tons annually—along with UAV launch infrastructure and command posts. Russia’s retaliatory attack on Kyiv and other cities involved drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles; the exact ballistic total remains unclear. I assess reported air-defense interceptions, damage to civilian sites including a Kyiv supermarket and TV studio, and Ukraine’s expanding use of unmanned ground vehicles for logistics and casualty evacuation.

00:00 Lyman Reports and Overnight Strike Exchange

04:10 Russia’s Missile and Drone Attack on Ukraine

06:44 Kyiv Civilian Damage and Air Defenses

09:02 Battlefield Indicators and Strike Totals

11:03 Ukraine Cuts the Russian Salient North of Lyman

13:26 Why the Lyman Operation Was Kept Quiet

15:41 Robotic Logistics and Ukraine’s Strategic Position

16:55 What the War Demands of Ukrainian Civilians

#UkraineWar #Lyman #Donbas #Kyiv #RussiaUkraineWar #SaratovRefinery

Facts over noise. Context over headlines. Truth over talking points. Principle over partisanship.

Fundraisers video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTs6amkGUg and Here is the direct link to the Ukraine Support Bridge: https://ukrainesupportbridge.com/ - Ukrainian Refugee M's Room and Board is covered for this year. It is not for the rest of her time at CSU. I will be pushing on the other fundraisers for now, but if you still wish to give to make that whole (Aprox 48K total), here is the direct link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/support-ms-journey-at-charleston-southern-university?attribution_id=sl:2708fb35-6c96-49b9-a5f9-6b7567483de6&lang=en_US&ts=1786462653&utm_campaign=fp_sharesheet&utm_content=amp30-treatment-3&utm_medium=customer&utm_source=copy_link

***** To support me as as I provide Ukraine war context: *****

Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/ProfessorGerdesExplains

Buy Me A Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/professorgerdes

Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/professorgerdes

YouTube Channel Membership: https://www.youtube.com/@Professor-Gerdes/membership

🇺🇸 Contact the White House to express your support for Ukraine

https://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/

*****IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE DIRECT AID TO UKRAINE: *****

🇺🇦 I have partnered with Greg Terry for all donations to Ukraine. He has raised and delivered more than a quarter of a million dollars of aid to date. To directly support this effort of delivering necessary provisions to the front lines, click on these links (and then watch him give your donations to soldiers on the front lines on his channel): https://www.youtube.com/@GregTerryExperience

Amazon Shopping List USA/North America (Shop and send to UKRAINE AID c/o Bethel Life's Gift Registry Address)

https://a.co/iodWsUK

Amazon Shopping List for EU/UK

https://www.amazon.de/hz/wishlist/ls/...

Direct Link for Financial Giving via our 501(c)(3) Tax-Deductible in the USA

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

Link for Greg's 501(c)(3) EIN Information

https://www.gregterry.org/donate.html

🇺🇸 Alternatively, you may choose to donate to Samaritan’s Purse:

https://www.samaritanspurse.org/our-ministry/ukraine-response/?utm_source=FY22UkraineResponseVanityURL&utm_medium=direct&utm_campaign=m_YUKR-22L3&utm_content=Ukraine-Response-Redirect%20%20

🇺🇦 If you wish to support the Ukrainian Army, give directly to United 24. Follow this link: https://u24.gov.ua/

***BUY SOMETHING TO SHOW YOUR SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ***

🇺🇦 If you purchase from Saint Javelin with my link below, a cut of the proceeds will go directly to humanitarian aid for soldiers (bandages, tourniquets, etc.). I don't get the revenue. It goes to buy medical supplies from UnitewithUkraine.com. Use this link: https://www.saintjavelin.com/en-us?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Gerdes

🇺🇸 This is the absolute CHEAPEST THING YOU CAN DO to support Ukraine (This is NOT MY SITE) https://amzn.to/4aPtwQr - Just support the war effort somehow.

🇺🇦 I wrote a book about Ukraine's president Zelenskyy which I have updated for the first 4-5 months of the war in Ukraine: It is free if you have Amazon Kindle Unlimited or $9.99 otherwise: https://amzn.to/3Q2wnyE

🇺🇦 If you cannot give or buy, you can like, share, and pray for the people of Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Please leave comments and tell me how I can help you gain more perspective. You can contact me @Dr_Gerdes on Twitter or email [email protected]

#UKRAINE #UKRAINERUSSIAWAR #UKRAINEWAR