Dantes Outlook Market Podcast

Today, we explore global energy through the lens of Russia, the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas. And to the west is Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies. According to some estimates, Russia is earning roughly $500 million per day on oil and another $400 million on gas all together.

But gas flows from Russia to Europe were already declining into the Q4 heating season last year. Flows flattened out earlier this year, and recently ticked downward.

To help us understand the Russia/EU gas market, we turn to Nadia Kazakova, an analyst at Renaissance Energy Advisors (REA). Nadia is an expert in this field with prior roles at JP Morgan and Saxo Bank. She also provides in depth analysis on operating stats from Gazprom, Russia’s majority state-owned energy company.

In this month’s episode I’ll provide a brief outlook for commodity markets from our strategy desk. Oil was the clear winner over the past three months, which accounted for most of the gains in the broad commodity index. Most price signals have extended into overbought territory, although pullbacks could be temporary over the next quarter. Elsewhere, metals have stabilized and oversold signals could present buying opportunities.

​​Over the short-term commodity prices should trade at a premium given supply risk and geopolitical issues. Long-term (two-three years), the effects of slowing economic growth as a result of tighter monetary policy and inflation could weigh on commodity prices, especially as recession signals advance.

Dr. Lev Borodovsky, editor of The Daily Shot newsletter returns to the show to help us unpack geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. The threat of rising inflation, slowing economic growth, and conflicts in Russia and Ukraine have kept investors on edge. But over time, markets can adjust to higher volatility as valuations normalize.

Lev has been busy gathering insight across Wall Street – a great value to our listeners and investors! Make sure to subscribe to The Daily Shot.

Today, we’re talking about volatility. It’s well known that markets ebb and flow, but over the past 25 years or so, there has been a pattern of spectacular rises and crashes. And that comes at the expense of decaying economic growth and central banks becoming the leaders of last resort.

To understand why this is happening, we turn to Tim Lee, the author of The Rise of Carry.

Happy new year! In this episode, I'll provide an overview of commodity market performance in Q4 and expectations going forward. The commodity price rally appears to be slowing, which could point to lower returns this year. The copper/gold ratio, a gauge for risk-on/risk-off, is testing resistance similar to 2018, which preceded pullbacks across risk assets including equities and commodities.

In this month’s episode, we’re joined by Lydia Idem, an investment advisor and venture capital fund manager. Lydia has founded, advised and invested in startups for the past 25 years. And recently, Lydia expanded her portfolio into Africa. We discussed investment trends and how she plans to make a bigger footprint on the continent.

Katie Stockton, managing partner of Fairlead Strategies, joined the show to discuss her disciplined process and market outlook for 2022. Katie is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), who studies price action in order to identify market opportunities. We talked about the importance of filtering noise by combining a mix of trend and momentum signals, especially given increased uncertainty heading into the new year.

In this month’s episode, we’ll take a break from the trading screen and talk about the next frontier in FinTech. For that, we head to Brazil, where we’re joined by João Pedro Thompson, co-founder of Z1, a financial app made exclusively for Brazil’s Gen Z population.

Here is a brief market outlook from the trading desk. The broad commodity complex continues to rally after breaking above a decade-long downtrend. Indicators suggest the divergence in returns could narrow in the months ahead as leaders appear significantly overbought relative to laggards. ​

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Market guide here: https://www.dantesoutlook.com/reports.html

On this month’s episode, we’re joined by Matt Clements, managing director of MarketDesk Research (MDR), an investment research service for wealth managers and institutional investors. Matt co-founded MDR with his brother, Jon Clements, who previously worked at Goldman Sachs on the investment research team. We’ll hear about their evidenced-based research process and market outlook given uncertainty regarding Fed policy and inflation.