Hunt, Jason, and Mike work through an oil market frozen by the US-Iran standoff, then spend the back half stress-testing SpaceX’s ~$2 trillion valuation against Tesla’s — landing on data centers in orbit and a chronic compute shortage as the load-bearing assumptions. Plus Apple’s WWDC miss, the software disruption map, and a strong week of healthcare data.

The Cashflow Memo

Key Takeaways

* Hunt’s working case: if the US-Iran standoff just persists, oil sits near $90 twelve months out despite deep backwardation (mid-$90s spot vs mid-$70s forward); the casualty is natural gas, because roughly two-thirds of dry-gas supply growth is Permian associated gas, so a higher oil price pumps more gas and keeps gas pricing weak.

* Exhibit A is the macro tail risk: holding public-debt-to-GNP under 100% requires keeping the deficit flat-to-declining near $1.5T even with higher defense spend — a developed-world problem (Japan is ~180%), not just a US one, and the thing that most threatens the credit markets.

* SpaceX’s ~$2T valuation only pencils on space-based data centers: 150kW micro-satellites (one NVL72-rack equivalent, Nvidia silicon, in-sourced solar), a ~1 GW launch cadence targeted by year-end, ~170 Starship launches per gigawatt (a launch every other day) off a 20-30 ship fleet. At ~$20B FCF per deployed gigawatt, ~$100B FCF — a 5% cash yield — looks more reachable for SpaceX than for Tesla at $1.4T, which needs robotaxi plus humanoids to get there.

* Compute scarcity is the load-bearing assumption under both bets: xAI’s ~$20B Colossus buildout in Memphis is already leasing capacity to Anthropic and Google at ~$25B of revenue — a near one-year payback that shows how acute the shortage is. The safer, cheaper derivative on chronic compute shortage remains Nvidia.

* AI has collapsed the cost to write software but not to support or design it: as the agent becomes the hub, Apple looks exposed (a second straight underwhelming Siri at WWDC, starting to look like IBM or Intel), while horizontal incumbents like Salesforce and ServiceNow can expand share and consumption-priced models gain over seat-based ones. In healthcare, Lilly’s triple-agonist retatrutide showed dramatic weight loss with less muscle loss, plus a gene-therapy LDL result, and Revolution Medicines tripled survival duration in pancreatic cancer by hitting targets long thought undruggable.

Show Notes

[00:00] Intro: The Cash Flow Memo Mike opens the weekly walk through energy, technology, and healthcare. Download the memo at telltales.us.

[00:52] Oil, Iran, and Why Gas Stays Weak With supply off ~2.5-3M bbl/d and the Iran embargo likely to persist, Hunt sees oil near $90 a year out despite heavy backwardation — and natural gas as the casualty, since Permian associated gas grows with oil.

[04:24] Exhibit A: The Deficit and the Credit Markets Keeping public-debt-to-GNP under 100% means holding the deficit near $1.5T even with higher defense spend. A developed-world problem, not just a US one.

[05:32] SpaceX vs Tesla: Which $2T Bet? Google’s ~$80B equity raise and the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic financings frame the question: is SpaceX at $2T or Tesla at $1.4T the more defensible valuation?

[06:57] Data Centers in Space: The Economics 150kW micro-satellites the size of an Nvidia NVL72 rack, in-sourced solar, ~1 GW launch cadence by year-end — and a deployed cost on par with land, minus the 3-7 year build cycle.

[12:30] 170 Launches a Gigawatt: The Physics The hard part is mass to orbit: ~170 Starship launches per gigawatt, a launch every other day, on an 18-hour turnaround across a 20-30 ship fleet. At ~$20B FCF per GW, $100B FCF becomes conceivable by ~2028.

[15:43] Colossus, Compute Scarcity, and Nvidia xAI’s ~$20B Memphis buildout now leases to Anthropic and Google at ~$25B revenue — a one-year payback that proves how short compute is. The cheaper, safer derivative is Nvidia.

[17:22] Apple’s WWDC Miss and the Agent-as-Hub Threat A second straight underwhelming Siri. If the agent becomes the hub for your data, the device is just a screen — and Apple, staked on privacy, is letting the opportunity pass. Starting to look like IBM or Intel.

[20:32] Enterprise Software: Horizontal Wins, Vertical Fragile AI made writing software trivial, not supporting it. Token budgets fold into the software budget; horizontal incumbents (Salesforce, ServiceNow) expand, vertical and seat-based models get fragile, and consumption pricing wins.

[23:47] Healthcare: Lilly, Gene Therapy, and Pancreatic Cancer Lilly’s triple-agonist retatrutide (less muscle loss) and a gene-therapy LDL result, Mayo’s AI-assisted earlier pancreatic-cancer detection, and Revolution Medicines tripling survival on previously undruggable targets.

[26:03] Wrap-Up Possibly back next week on how SpaceX trades in the aftermarket. Get the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us.

Cashtags

$AAPL $CRM $GOOGL $INTC $LLY $MSFT $NOW $NVDA $RVMD $TSLA

This post and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit telltales.substack.com