In this episode, we embark on a data-driven exploration of India's GST since its inception in 2017. As of June 2023, GST has completed 6 years, so, we thought of analyzing the GST data.

If you think that mixing drinks is meant for humans alone, then you might be wrong. Well, humans have developed cocktails for our vehicles too and they are called biofuels. Although the name is too boring for cocktails, they are very fancy.

When we think of exports the thing that comes to our mind is goods – phones, televisions, machinery, oil, plastics, cars etc. We think of huge ships through which goods are transported across countries. Even the government policy is largely focused on goods exports. However, it is services exports where India is having the most traction.

Every year in May, we stumble upon one piece of news and that is - when and how much will it rain this monsoon season? If it rains less, we face issues like farmers’ distress, lower levels of water reservoirs, inflation, etc. But if it rains more, all the infrastructure fault lines erupt.

Do you prefer investing in Nifty Index/ETFs instead of specific stocks? Are you a person who is always searching for sectoral or thematic Index Mutual Funds or ETFs?

Once upon a time, Japan was growing at a rapid pace. It was an export powerhouse too. In the '80s, its export share crossed 10% of global exports. Now, things have changed. It has been caught in many socio-economic problems that hinder its growth. Its export engine no longer outpaces others. Its share in global exports has fallen to just 3% in 2022, even lower than it was in the 1960s! The country now runs a trade deficit.

India’s central government presents the Union Budget every year before the Parliament closer to the end of a financial year. It publishes how much it expects to earn through taxes and other means and how much it plans to spend on salaries, infrastructure, social development and other categories in the next financial year. We have seen many times that the actual results are different from the budgeted estimates.

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Have you ever bought an imported perfume or an electronic gadget or a bottle of rare whiskey from a different country? You would have read a news of FIIs selling their India portfolio which affected stock markets. You might also be working in an MNC. There is also a chance that you are investing in US stock exchange by clicking a few buttons on your broking app. 

What do these examples tell us? Where do they get accounted? How to see if we are doing good or not? And what exactly is good and bad in these transactions? 

That’s what we are going to talk about today. These are all a part of balance of payments or BOP. 

Sources and Further Reading:

RBI's Balance of Payments Manual

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MSP - Minimum Support Price, is a tool used by the government to protect farmers from falling prices of commodities. In this episode, we discuss what is the nature of agricultural business, what is the role of MSP, how MSP is calculated for different crops and whether MSP procurement has been successful or not. It is important to understand the nitty-gritties of this mechanism to analyse the overall farming system in the country.

Sources and Further References:

MSP, Wikipedia

MSP, Civilsdaily

Report of the Committee on Doubling Farmers’ Income

Evaluation Study On Efficacy of Minimum Support Prices (MSP) on Farmers, NITI Aayog

Impact Of Minimum Support Prices On Agricultural Economy, ISEC

All about MSP and the demand for a legal backing

Cabinet approval of MSP for Rabi Marketing Season 2023-24 

Cost Concepts

Manual on Cost of Cultivation Surveys

Dept of Food & Public Distribution, Annual Report FY22

Revised MSPs still about 47% lower for most of the 14 crops under scheme: Report - The Economic Times

Price Policy for Rabi Crops Marketing Season 2023-24

Price Policy for Kharif Crops Marketing Season 2022-23

MSP and Public Procurement

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In the previous episode we understood what is GDP. Now, let us understand how to interpret the data? But before that we should understand what different types of GDP data gets released? Why it takes three years to finalise the GDP data? How to interpret the data revisions? 

In this episode we also tell you how the GDP data is calculated. Honestly, it is complicated! 

We also know that half of India's GDP relies on unorganised sector. But we don't know exact GDP of unorganised sector. Do you want to know how the GDP of unorganised sector is calculated? Well, then we have explained it too in this episode. 

GDP calculation, in general, involves some hard-core observable data, but most of the times it includes approximations, proxies and modelling. Therefore, its process, interpretation as well as use-case differs from that of something like inflation data. 

We have heard experts contesting over few decimal point growth rates in GDP data. Is such in-depth analysis really necessary? We cover that as well. 

So, in short, this is a compact package on how to interpret the GDP data. Give it a shot and let us know your feedback.

Sources and Further References:

1. NAS Sources and Methods 2012 

2. Measuring Informal Economy in India _ Indian Experience, By S V Ramana Murthy

3. Methodology for Estimating Quarterly GDP

4. Understanding the New Series of National Accounts 

5. Changes In Methodology And Data Sources In The New Series Of National Accounts 

6. Chp 13 - National Account Statistics - National Statistical Commission

7. Notes On Methodology And Revisions In The Estimates

8. Measuring informality, ILO

9. Press Note First Revised Estimates Of National Income,  Consumption Expenditure, Saving And Capital Formation, 2020-21

10. Studying revisions in Indian GDP data, Ideas for India

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