We discussed last week, what is rapidly becoming my central thesis for the year 2022: The Year Of Uncertainty.

Essentially for anyone who models the economy, last year was the year when you just had to “plug in” a number. You didn't know what the real number was. So you just used your best estimate of what you thought should be the number.

We discussed last week, what is rapidly becoming my central thesis for the year 2022: The Year Of Uncertainty.

Essentially for anyone who models the economy, last year was the year when you just had to “plug in” a number. You didn't know what the real number was. So you just used your best estimate of what you thought should be the number.

On the surface, it looks OK. GDP has been growing so far this year. But it's all based on stimulus dollars. At an amount that has never been approached before.

Think of it, nearly half of our national income in 2021, was the stimulus.

This naturally leads to the question: what would happen if that Stimulus were withdrawn?

On the surface, it looks OK. GDP has been growing so far this year. But it's all based on stimulus dollars. At an amount that has never been approached before.

Think of it, nearly half of our national income in 2021, was the stimulus.

This naturally leads to the question: what would happen if that Stimulus were withdrawn?

On the surface, it looks OK. GDP has been growing so far this year. But it's all based on stimulus dollars. At an amount that has never been approached before.

Think of it, nearly half of our national income in 2021, was the stimulus.

This naturally leads to the question: what would happen if that Stimulus were withdrawn?

Our economy has also been buffeted by the Pandemic, and the political reaction to it. From that dreadful Second Quarter of 2020, when governors and mayors throughout the country placed their jurisdictions in absolute economic lock-down.

Our economy has also been buffeted by the Pandemic, and the political reaction to it. From that dreadful Second Quarter of 2020, when governors and mayors throughout the country placed their jurisdictions in absolute economic lock-down.

Our economy has also been buffeted by the Pandemic, and the political reaction to it. From that dreadful Second Quarter of 2020, when governors and mayors throughout the country placed their jurisdictions in absolute economic lock-down.

Honestly, I saw the number flash across my screen: 97.8 billion dollars. An all-time, historic trade deficit. For this country or any country.

And frankly, it hit like a ton of bricks.

Honestly, I saw the number flash across my screen: 97.8 billion dollars. An all-time, historic trade deficit. For this country or any country.

And frankly, it hit like a ton of bricks.