Many of you read about the tragedy in the small town of Hunt in the Texas Hill Country.  Torrential rain poured from July 4th to the 7th and then resumed again July 12 -13.   The Guadalupe River that runs around the town quickly rose with water levels rising over 30’ in the town of Hunt.  By the time water levels finally receded, 132 fatalities were confirmed including 27 children attending Camp Mystic, a girl’s camp, located along the Guadalupe River.  Listen in this UPdate, Anton’s experience volunteering in Hunt this past weekend.

After the Federal Reserve raised their discount rate 500% in 2022 and 2023 taking mortgage rates up with them, housing activity has hit a brick wall.  Since mid-2023, prospective home buyers have remained on the sidelines happy to remain with their current home or as renters.  Listen in this UPdate our analysis of the housing market, its impact on the stock market, and our projections for the balance of this year.

There is a widening range of sentiments between individuals and business owners. The question is who is right and is perception reality?  As we have mentioned in past Updates, consumers have only been this dire about the economy and their financial future in three other periods since 1978.  Listen in this UPdate, our observations of the sentiment of these two sectors of the economy and the potential impact on the economy.

My grandson, Anton the 5th, and I flew our Piper Cherokee laterally across the country from southern Texas to the Annual AirVenture event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin earlier this month.  Flying through the mid-west during the summer is always a challenge with pop-up thunderstorms, tornadoes, rain, and low cloud ceilings.  The economy is starting to also show new signs of potential turbulence.  Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of the economy and stock market and how you might consider navigation through possible turbulent market conditions.

AI has exploded onto the scene led by supercomputing chips by Nvidia (NVDA).  Initially, CEO’s and CTO’s (Chief Technology Officer) were evaluating the potential of this new highly advanced self-learning technology.  When introduced, the application of AI was limited to basic business functionality primarily with phone systems.  Read in this UPdate our review of how AI may be affecting you and where new investing opportunities may be developing.

Today the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of June had increased to 322.56 points or 0.3%. On an annual basis, the annual inflation rate has increased to 2.7% which is the highest annualized rate since February’s low reading of 2.4% annualized rate.  Listen in this Weekly UPdate our analysis of this report and the status of the US economy and stock market.

The rapid rise of interest rates causes significant changes in lending activity and especially in the housing mortgage market.  According to CNBC, the sale of previously owned homes in April declined 0.5% from March to an annualized rate of 4 million units.  This is the slowest April pace since 2009.  Read in this issue our view of the future of interest rates and inflation and the possible impact on the stock market.

In the complex and extensive ecosystem of the US economy, the fundamental core of its sustainability and continued growth all depends on the consumer.  That’s you and me and how we spend and save our money.  As investors we monitor consumer spending of both staples as the largest portion of household budgets and the more profitable discretionary spending such as vacations, hospitality, dining, jewelry, and luxury items.   Discretionary budgets can fluctuate dramatically that are influenced by various factors that include changes in payroll, consumer sentiment, media, inflation, and politics.  What is interesting is the widening spread of sentiment between business owners and consumers.  In this Issue we discuss the wide gap of sentiment between business owners and consumers and what it means to you.  Most importantly, how this disparity may influence the stock market and your investments. 

For many of our retired clients, they had successful careers and are now enjoying their retirement years.  Stock market volatility is difficult to navigate for investors and even more challenging for those already retired.  The difference between those retired from their careers is the ability or time to make up account losses.  It is more difficult to ride out stock market volatility without the confidence of additional income to make up the losses.  In this UPdate, we discuss one key investment structure that can prevent you from panic selling during the worst of market conditions.

 The first four months of 2024 have been a wild ride for Wall Street.  Investors don’t respond well to change, and their typical response is to sell and ask questions later.  In this issue we analyze the past two months market volatility and review what investors can learn about institutional investors in their response to potentially disruptive economic events.