Daybreak with Anton

September retail sales increased 0.4% from August and the third consecutive month over month (MoM) it has increased. The 0.4% is substantially higher than August's 0.1% monthly increase. Even though retail sales have increased six of the past nine months this year, overall total retail sales are still less than previous years. Listen in this issue our views on this report and the prospects for the future of the economy and stock market.

Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020, we used to host multiple client and friend dinner events each year. Read in this issue about our dinner event this past September 27 with long time client and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Tom Dwelle, as our keynote speaker at the Dwelle's impressive hangar at Auburn Municipal Airport. It was an amazing evening with historic multi-million-dollar warbird planes on display, three ship formation flight of North American T-6 Texans, and riveting stories about Tom's experiences as a fighter pilot during Vietnan. Sign up for our next event on November 13 in San Jose.

Today we have received a trove of economic reports that indicate that companies are still hiring and growing while it appears the economy is in a mild slow down cycle. This seems contradictory and begs the questions:

Ø Why is the economy slowing (less consumer spending) while more people are working in the history of this country?

Ø Why are there so many job openings yet the unemployment rate remains at lowest level since 1954?

Ø What is prompting investors to drive up the stock market to all-time highs?

Listen in this issue as we decipher several economic reports and answer these three key questions.

The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates. The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020. Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this report and what this may mean for home prices in 2025.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August. This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months. Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of this report and the future of small businesses in America.

After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling. The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning. Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week's Federal Reserve of Philadelphia Manufacturing (FRPM) index that dropped in August and down from the three months high reached in July. The S&P Global PMI index declined in August and was the first month in 2024 with a reduction of production, sales, and demand. Read in this issue our review of these reports and our analysis of today's stock market selloff.

As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024. The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable. This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointment the Feds have not lowered interest rates, concerns about the wars in Israel and Ukraine, stocks were overpriced to their earnings, and weak housing market. In this Update we review reports released by the Federal Reserve Banks on businesses leader sentiment and their forecasts for the next six months. More importantly, read about our views of the stock market rebound and if it will continue to the end of the year.

Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses released today their Small Business Optimism report. In the report, they track the results of their monthly survey to its members to produce their proprietary Small Business Index (SBI). Based on answers provided in July, the SBI rose 2.2 points to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, July's index at 93.7 is the 31st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98.0. Read in this issue our view of the Small Business Optimism report.

Yesterday the world markets sold off as investors stampeded out of the market selling their client's portfolios as fast as they could. What spooked the markets yesterday is not much different than what normally triggers a stampede. A jittery herd and then a sudden noise. Read in this Issue as we separate the facts from fiction of what the media is reporting and whether the stampede was legitimate or just nervous nellies.