This coming Tuesday, April 21, will offer the latest conflict in the 2026 redistricting wars. Virginia will hold a special election on a constitutional amendment that, if successful, would set the stage for a Democratic gerrymander of the state’s congressional map. Namely, the amendment would allow the state legislature to bypass Virginia’s bipartisan redistricting commission until after the 2030 census. In expectation of passage, Virginia’s Democratic-controlled state government has passed a very aggressive proposal that aims to hand Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 districts — arguably the most lopsided gerrymander in the country.

To examine Virginia’s vote, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed Chaz Nuttycombe to the podcast. And because this brought two Virginians together to talk about Virginia, the pod ran on the longer side! Chaz is the executive director of State Navigate, a nonpartisan nonprofit that works to help the public navigate state-level politics. State Navigate has a number of interactives on its website tracking what’s happening in Virginia (as does DDHQ Votes). And just ahead of recording, State Navigate released a new poll measuring support for the amendment, which found Yes leading 51%-45% — a lead, but not a huge one.

Geoffrey and Chaz began with an initial overview of where things stand in the redistricting vote (4:00). They then discussed the ballot language, including controversies surrounding potentially biased wording and ongoing legal challenges (12:18).

Then they dug into the campaign, starting with the Yes campaign’s monetary edge in ad spending and total contributions (20:39). Geoffrey and Chaz looked over the polling of the race, including State Navigate’s new survey and many of the key findings in the poll (23:10). They then discussed what turnout changes could shift the race toward No, explored State Navigate’s estimates about the partisan makeup of the electorate, and where the early vote stands (31:30).

They turned to a discussion of the makeup of the districts on the proposed congressional map (48:58). Given the aggressiveness of the gerrymander, they also talked about how the proposed lines could offer some hope for the No campaign by helping persuade some independent voters to oppose the measure (54:15). The show ended with Chaz talking about State Navigate, its offerings, and its mission (58:30).

Gubernatorial elections are a major feature of the 2026 electoral landscape. All told, 36 states choose governors in midterms, making it the main decision point for state executives around the country. To go through some of the most competitive gubernatorial contests, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley welcomed Lou Jacobson to the podcast. Lou is the chief correspondent for PolitiFact and is the chief author for the 2026 Almanac of American Politics. He’s covered politics and elections for many years, and currently writes all about these subjects on the the Almanac of American Politics Substack.

They began with an overview of the 2026 electoral map and how previous midterms in 2002, 2010, and 2018 set the stage for the current situation (2:30). They then turned to some Democratic-held seats in key swing states. In Arizona, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is seeking reelection, and looks likely to face Republican Rep. Andy Biggs in November (9:20). Michigan now looks likely to have a competitive Republican primary, and it’s set to have a three-way general election involving Democrat-turned-independent Mike Duggan, the former mayor of Detroit (15:15). They also spoke briefly about Wisconsin’s open-seat race for governor, which was a greater focus of last week’s conversation about the Badger State (21:06).

Lou and Geoffrey then shifted to some key Republican-held seats that are up for grabs. They started with Georgia, where both parties have very crowded primary races, and where control of the governorship could be critical to future congressional redistricting in the Peach State (23:36). In Iowa, the likely matchup between GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra and Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand will test the state’s recent red lean (31:48). The situation is somewhat similar in Ohio, where the likely contest between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, a 2024 presidential candidate, and Democrat Amy Acton, the state’s former health director, looks highly competitive (37:58). They then looked at Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo’s reelection chances in Nevada against his likely Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford (40:56).

They closed out by examining two states with interesting gubernatorial contests that aren’t traditional battlegrounds. They started with Kansas, where Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited and the GOP probably has its best pickup opportunity this cycle (44:40). Then they discussed the messy situation in California, where a crowded primary field has raised the possibility that two Republicans could advance to the general election, locking out Democrats in one of the bluest states in the country (49:35).

The 2026 contest for the U.S. House of Representatives looks favorable for Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is in the low 40s, and Democrats have led in the generic ballot by roughly 5 points since November. Although the midterms are about seven months away, we also have a pretty good idea about which seats are most vulnerable for each party — especially Republicans, who are more likely to lose ground in 2026 as the presidential party.

But what about some districts that are more on the periphery? In midterms, the opposition party sometimes flips seats that are pretty favorable for the party in the White House. Meanwhile, the president’s party occasionally springs a surprise even if the midterms don’t go particularly well for that side of the aisle. To talk about some potential under-the-radar races in 2026, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Erin Covey, the House Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, where she leads coverage of the electoral situation in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The conversation began with an overview of the 2026 House situation and why Democrats are favored to capture a majority (3:00). Then they began to look at some races that might be more competitive than expected. They dove into two majority-Latino seats in Texas, starting with the open 23rd District, which The Cook Political Report recently moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its ratings (8:00). They then explored what’s happening in the newly-drawn 35th District, another Likely Republican seat (15:40).

Moving to the east, Geoffrey and Erin examined the lay of the land in North Carolina’s 11th District, a Likely Republican seat where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection (25:23). In the Midwest, another Likely Republican seat that could be in play is Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open due to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid (33:38). They then delved into two Colorado seats, the state’s 3rd and 5th districts, where Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank are seeking reelection, respectively (41:20). They then concluded by talking about some opportunities the GOP might have to compete for Democratic-held seats, such as California’s 13th District and New York’s 4th District (49:30).

The 2026 contest for the U.S. House of Representatives looks favorable for Democrats. President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is in the low 40s, and Democrats have led in the generic ballot by roughly 5 points since November. Although the midterms are about seven months away, we also have a pretty good idea about which seats are most vulnerable for each party — especially Republicans, who are more likely to lose ground in 2026 as the presidential party.

But what about some districts that are more on the periphery? In midterms, the opposition party sometimes flips seats that are pretty favorable for the party in the White House. Meanwhile, the president’s party occasionally springs a surprise even if the midterms don’t go particularly well for that side of the aisle. To talk about some potential under-the-radar races in 2026, Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Erin Covey, the House Editor at The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, where she leads coverage of the electoral situation in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The conversation began with an overview of the 2026 House situation and why Democrats are favored to capture a majority (3:00). Then they began to look at some races that might be more competitive than expected. They dove into two majority-Latino seats in Texas, starting with the open 23rd District, which The Cook Political Report recently moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican in its ratings (8:00). They then explored what’s happening in the newly-drawn 35th District, another Likely Republican seat (15:40).

Moving to the east, Geoffrey and Erin examined the lay of the land in North Carolina’s 11th District, a Likely Republican seat where Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is seeking reelection (25:23). In the Midwest, another Likely Republican seat that could be in play is Iowa’s 2nd District, which is open due to GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson’s Senate bid (33:38). They then delved into two Colorado seats, the state’s 3rd and 5th districts, where Republican Reps. Jeff Hurd and Jeff Crank are seeking reelection, respectively (41:20). They then concluded by talking about some opportunities the GOP might have to compete for Democratic-held seats, such as California’s 13th District and New York’s 4th District (49:30).

Public opinion surveys are important for understanding what’s happening in elections and politics more broadly. Whether it’s a party gaining in the generic ballot, a president’s approval rating falling, or Americans becoming more concerned about a particular issue, surveys help us track the state of things.

A new entrant in the polling realm is The Argument. The outlet has partnered with the pollster Verasight to regularly survey attitudes among Americans and examine important changes in public opinion. To talk more about what the organization’s polling has found over the past few months, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Lakshya Jain, the director of political data for The Argument. Jain is also a co-founder of Split Ticket.

They began by discussing The Argument’s polling process and goals, and how it hopes to differentiate itself in the polling field. Then the discussion turned to the sizable shifts in public opinion among important parts of President Donald Trump’s winning 2024 coalition, including worsening presidential approval numbers among young voters, Hispanic voters, and white working-class voters. They covered how to interpret these changes and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms.

Moving to The Argument’s issue polling, they examined public attitudes toward transgender Americans and the political positioning of each major party regarding this group. They then talked about some of the interesting trends within The Argument’s data that might otherwise fly under the radar. This includes a look at how the different rates of answering “don’t know” between men and women connect to larger social and cultural phenomena.

Last week, Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley announced he would seek reelection as an independent in California’s blue-leaning 6th District. Kiley, a two-term congressman, had been targeted by Golden State Democrats’ redistricting plan, which chopped up his red-leaning district into six pieces. But is Kiley really an IINO — independent in name only? He will continue to caucus with the GOP, and his decision to identify as an independent is clearly related to his tough electoral circumstances.

The thing is, Kiley is just the latest independent attempting to effectively run as a stand-in for one of the major parties. DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by DDHQ Election Analyst Eric Cunningham to discuss this phenomenon of “fake”, “pseudo-” or “quasi-” independent candidates. Also the editor-in-chief of Elections Daily, Cunningham has dug into this trend in downballot races.

They opened the conversation by exploring Kiley’s situation, including the electoral calculations that helped inform his decision to seek reelection as an independent. Then they dug into a high-profile example of a left-leaning independent: Dan Osborn, who is running for Senate in Nebraska in 2026. In 2024, Osborn ran as an independent in a fairly close race against Republican Sen. Deb Fischer.

Building on the Osborn example, the pair talked about three other left-leaning independents who are running for Senate in Montana (Seth Bodnar), South Dakota (Brian Bengs), and Idaho (Todd Achilles). They discussed the challenges these candidates face, including whether Democrats run their own candidate or back the independent. A one-on-one shot against the Republican nominee would at least somewhat improve these candidates’ already-low chance of success.

These four independents are just the latest to run for Senate in red states. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran in Utah; in 2020, Al Gross ran in Alaska; and in 2014, Greg Orman ran in Kansas. In a different-but-related category, both independents presently in the Senate each caucus with the Democrats — Sens. Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Still, Kiley is not the only GOP candidate to attempt such a move: California’s 2018 Insurance Commissioner race also featured an ex-Republican.

We’ve talked a great deal about redistricting in the 2026 midterm election cycle — and with good reason. Six states have drawn new maps, and more could join in soon. But looking beyond 2026, major events could shake up redistricting and reapportionment. This includes the potential end of the Voting Rights Act as we know it and major shifts in population that will affect how many U.S. House seats each state has after the 2030 census.

To examine these topics, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Sean Trende, the Senior Elections Analyst for RealClearPolitics. Sean shared his deep well of knowledge about all things redistricting and reapportionment.

They led off the conversation by examining how the conservative-dominated Supreme Court of the United States seems likely to weaken or dismantle the Voting Rights Act in the case Louisiana v. Callais. Such a decision probably would not have a huge impact on the 2026 election, but it would open the door to a fresh round of redistricting before the 2028 cycle. A number of Republican-controlled states in the South would almost certainly redraw their maps to reduce or eliminate entirely many majority-Black seats, which could then spark Democratic-led states to redistrict in response.

From there, they discussed population projections for 2030 that suggest potential seat gains for big Republican-leaning states like Texas and Florida, and seat losses for major Democratic-leaning states like California and New York. This could affect the battle for control of the House, but it will also have ramifications for the Electoral College in the 2032 presidential election. Red states would gain electoral votes based on the 2024 election results, and the campaign focus on the swing states would likely shift more to the Sun Belt trio of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.

It’s almost primary time! This coming Tuesday, three states — Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas — will hold their regular primaries to nominate candidates for various federal and state offices. This will begin six months of primaries across 50 states and the District of Columbia, with the final races occurring in September.

Of those states, Texas will host most of the high-profile races happening on March 3. To talk about the Lone Star State contests, DDHQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Gabby Birenbaum, the Washington Correspondent for The Texas Tribune. Gabby joined the DDHQ Podcast in December to talk about Texas’s electoral slate, and she returned to help clarify where things stand in the state’s major primary races.

The conversation opened with the U.S. Senate race, looking at the dynamics of the three-way Republican primary involving incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt. Cornyn and Paxton look headed for a May 26 runoff, but don’t write off Hunt entirely. On the Democratic side, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico are facing off in a much-watched contest that looks to be quite close.

Down the ballot, some U.S. House primaries have grabbed their own share of headlines. Most notably, Rep. Tony Gonzales faces a tough primary challenge in Texas’s 23rd District under a cloud of scandal regarding an alleged affair with a staffer. The staffer committed suicide last September and, earlier this week, it came out that Gonzales had sent explicit texts to her, which has led some Republicans to call for his resignation. Beyond that race, Texas’s redistricted map has precipitated a number of heated primary contests for both parties, including the Democratic primaries in the 18th and 33rd districts, and the GOP primary in the 2nd District.

Mid-decade redistricting could be a wildfire that keeps burning and just won’t go out. Six states have already implemented new maps, either via newly-passed laws or court action. But seven other states — and perhaps more — have at least some chance of drawing new lines ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Much depends on various contingencies, including the passage of a constitutional amendment by voters in Virginia and the potential timing of a decision from the U.S. Supreme Court dismantling the Voting Rights Act as we know it. And beyond 2026, politicians and activists in many states, such as Republicans in Utah and Democrats in Colorado, are already making moves with an eye on redistricting in 2028.

Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor at Votebeat, to examine the ins and outs of redistricting. They looked at the overall redistricting picture and the range of potential outcomes from the lines implemented so far. They then provided an overview of the states that could join the redistricting fray, including Virginia and Florida. From there, they zoomed in on the potential remaps in the Democratic-controlled states of Virginia and Maryland. They then talked about how referendums could play into redistricting beyond Virginia. This includes a GOP-backed effort in Utah to repeal the state’s redistricting rules with an eye on another new map in 2028, a citizen veto measure in Missouri to block Republican-passed legislation to establish a new map for 2026, and a push by Colorado Democrats to override the state’s independent redistricting commission and implement a Democratic gerrymander in 2028.

In recent months, one growing political narrative is the extent to which President Donald Trump has lost ground with young men. In the 2024 election, Trump lost among 18-29 year olds as a whole, but he did better than in his past elections. His improvement among young men especially stood out because he actually carried the group as a whole, according to some studies. The explanations for Trump’s performance have ranged from negative economic views among young people to Trump’s embrace of podcasters to connect with voters.

Yet recent research suggests young men have soured on Trump. One study from the left-leaning Speaking with American Men Project found that Trump’s standing among young men has declined. But is Trump losing more ground among young men than among other groups? Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Mary Radcliffe, head of research at FiftyPlusOne, to talk about Trump’s approval among young men and more broadly. She recently found that Trump’s decline among young men was not necessarily outsized compared to other groups, most notably among women.

The conversation began with Mary’s article and the narrative surrounding Trump’s standing with young men. They explored the difficulties of actually ascertaining the views of this particular subgroup and the small amount of reliable polling that’s available to study young men’s attitudes. They then discussed the reality that Trump’s approval has fallen across the broad, including a similar rate of decline in attitudes toward him among both men and women. They followed this by looking at changes in Trump’s approval among groups that played an important role in his winning 2024 coalition, including independents and Latinos. Trump’s declining approval on his handling of different issues likely plays into the growing dissatisfaction toward his presidency across different groups. Lastly, they talked about broader trends in Trump’s approval and what they could mean for the 2026 midterms.