Decision Desk HQ Podcast

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The electoral environment has trended toward Democrats, which has helped make them clearer favorites in the House and very slight favorites in the battle for the Senate. More broadly, Democrats now have just above a 1 in 2 chance of sweeping both chambers. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris from now and until the election, so watch for future chats!

► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com

---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro and overall forecast situation8:55 What if the polls are wrong?13:26 The perfect tool for Election Night17:02 Kansas Senate21:00 South Carolina Senate23:05 Arkansas Senate24:50 Florida Governor27:17 Texas Governor29:19 Texas Railroad Commissioner33:02 The forecast toplines

With the midterms rapidly approaching, this episode of the Decision Desk HQ podcast features not one, but two, guests! In the first part, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley chats with Jeremy Pelzer, the chief politics reporter of the Cleveland Plain Dealer, about the state's highly competitive Senate and gubernatorial elections. Ohio is one of the key swing states Democrats need to flip to win back the Senate. Data centers have emerged as a key issue in this campaign, and outside spending has been high. In the second half, he talks with Michael Shepherd, the political editor at the Bangor Daily News. They take a deep dive into Maine's contentious Senate race, where longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is facing a tough national environment. Democrat Troy Jackson, the replacement for Graham Platner, is polling about even with Collins in what has become a must-win for both parties.

---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Jeremy Pelzer on X: https://x.com/jpelzer► Michael Shepherd on X: https://x.com/mikeshepherdME► Bangor Daily News: https://bangordailynews.com► Cleveland Plain Dealer: https://cleveland.com---► DDHQ VOTES: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS2:00: Introducing Jeremy Pelzer and Ohio's elections11:05 Jon Husted, Sherrod Brown, and data centers19:15 Outside spending21:07 Governor election34:35: Introducing Mike Shepherd and Maine's elections38:04 Can Susan Collins overperform again?54:16 Troy Jackson's record and campaign1:01:52 Governor race

Just two years after voting for President Trump by nearly 14 percentage points, Texas has become an unexpected frontline swing state. The Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has drawn national attention, with polls and the DDHQ forecast both showing Talarico with a lead. Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but this may be their best chance since 2018.In this podcast, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discusses the Texas Senate and gubernatorial elections with Gabby Birenbaum, Washington correspondent for The Texas Tribune.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Gabby Birenbaum on X: https://x.com/birenbomb► The Texas Tribune: https://www.texastribune.org---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:25 Introducing Gabby Birenbaum3:35 Latino voters and Texas in 202610:06 Talarico and suburban voters15:43 Paxton’s challenges18:42 Fundraising, spending, and polling24:10 Texas governor and the rise of Hinojosa29:48 Key issue: data centers35:07 Downballot consequences of these races37:28 What would a Talarico win mean?

With all primaries done and dusted, it is now indisputably general election time. But we have two late developments that will affect the 2026 electoral picture. First, Republicans had drawn a new gerrymander in Missouri, but a series of federal and state court decisions appear likely to restore the state’s old, less GOP-leaning congressional lines. Second, the Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump’s executive order to restrict mail voting. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley discussed these two developments with Nathaniel Rakich, the managing editor of Votebeat. Votebeat is a nonpartisan news site devoted to covering the nuts and bolts of how elections and voting work in the United States.

---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Nathaniel Rakich on X: https://x.com/baseballot► Votebeat: votebeat.org► Votebeat newsletters: https://www.votebeat.org/newsletters/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS0:41 Introducing Nathaniel Rakich & our topics2:31 Missouri’s redistricting saga10:19 Republicans’ last-ditch effort in Missouri15:23 A red-state redistricting veto referendum23:59 Missouri’s other big ballot initiative27:41 SCOTUS blocks President Trump’s executive order32:10 The executive order and how people vote38:57 Other election issues Votebeat is monitoring

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell to talk about Decision Desk HQ’s 2026 election forecast. The race for the Senate is now a coin flip, so we discussed some of the key races there, including Texas and Iowa. We also touched on Missouri’s redistricting situation. We’ll be doing regular updates about the forecast with Chris every couple of weeks from now and until the election, so be on the lookout for future chats!

► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq

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CHAPTERS

1:29 How does the forecast work4:10 The Senate is a dead heat8:58 Democrats still favored in the House13:40 Audience asks: Talarico (D) favored in Texas Senate?20:42 Audience asks: Hinson (R) favored in Iowa Senate?24:29 Audience asks: GOP more secure in Florida Senate?32:30 Audience asks: Independent have path in South Dakota Senate?39:02 Audience asks: Missouri’s redistricting situation

Midterms aren’t just about the race for Congress. Thirty-six states will also elect their governors, making this the main venue for deciding who will lead most of the 50 states. With this in mind, Decision Desk HQ recently added a gubernatorial forecast to better gauge what’s happening in these important races. Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley was joined by Data Scientist Maddisen Murrell and Data Science intern Jake Marks to talk about the new forecast. They discussed how it works and dug into what the forecast says about 2026’s most competitive and interesting gubernatorial contests.

---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Governor Forecast: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/forecast/2026/governor► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ Substack: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s Discord: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq

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CHAPTERS2:16 Introducing Madison, Jake, and the 2026 map3:57 Governor vs. Senate dynamics, highlighting Texas10:05 Role of prediction markets in governor forecast17:10 Generic ballot and the electoral environment19:45 Candidate quality and Oregon’s race23:43 Georgia: polls vs. Rick Jackson’s money31:05 Kansas: the GOP’s best pickup chance35:55 Iowa: A Dem governor-GOP Senate split?40:57 Nevada: Gov. Joe Lombardo has slight edge43:46 Ohio: Polls and markets suggest Democrats have a shot48:12 Alaska: Multiple candidates from same party

Three decades ago, Bob Dole’s 1996 bid for the White House became the first presidential campaign to have a website. But nowadays, campaigns use a huge range of tools to engage supporters, raise money, win over persuadable voters, and gain an edge over their competitors. To discuss some challenges faced by modern campaigns, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Eric Wilson, the executive director of the Center for Campaign Innovation. The Center puts together regular reports, including conducting its own field experiments, about how technological innovations can help campaigns. Eric is himself a veteran of many political campaigns, and he also runs the Campaign Trend newsletter.---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Eric Wilson on X: https://x.com/ericwilson► Center for Campaign Innovation: https://campaigninnovation.org/► Campaign Trend newsletter: https://campaigntrend.com---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► Join DDHQ’s DISCORD: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq---CHAPTERS1:42 Introducing Eric Wilson, Center for Campaign Innovation3:52 Changing digital space around campaigns6:44 Social media, authenticity & campaign work (Mamdani vs. Pratt)10:45 Differences between the parties’ use of digital tools15:31 Democrats’ current edge in email deliverability 25:27 Field experiment in direct mail to boost GOP turn out31:58 Text messaging to make canvassing more effective36:44 Looking for any edge & maximizing campaign efficiencies

Democrats have closed the gap in Decision Desk HQ’s Senate forecast. Their chances have particularly been boosted by strong polls in red-leaning states like Ohio, Alaska, Texas, and Iowa. But is there reason to doubt some of this positive polling news for Democrats?To dig into that question, Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Patrick Ruffini, a founding partner at the Republican firm Echelon Insights. Patrick recently published an analysis on his Substack, The Intersection, that found Senate polls in recent cycles have tended to overstate Democratic performance relative to the final outcome — especially in some of the red-leaning states that Democrats need to win.

---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► Patrick Ruffini on X: https://x.com/PatrickRuffini► The Intersection on Substack: https://patrickruffini.com/---► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► DDHQ SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN DDHQ’s OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq

---CHAPTERS1:35 Introducing Patrick and his findings7:00 Error in midterms vs. presidential cycles13:45 Competitive races with more polling aren’t immune16:20 The redder the state, the worst the error19:24 Potential demographic explanations for error27:20 Error by state: Texas, Ohio, and elsewhere31:12 What this could mean for the 2026 Senate map36:10 What to make of Alaska43:05 Maine and Susan Collins, the overperformer

DDHQ friend Chris Cillizza, who runs So What on Substack, was nice enough to have two members of the DDHQ team on a Substack Live conversation about our 2026 election forecast. Chris was joined by Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley and Data Science Fellow Maddisen Murrell to talk about the big picture and some specific U.S. Senate and U.S. House races. We’ll be doing this regularly every couple of weeks from now and until the election, so be on the lookout for more updates!

► Chris Cillizza on X: https://x.com/ChrisCillizza► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs► So What: https://chriscillizza.substack.com---► Find our forecast on DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq

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CHAPTERS

1:00 How does the forecast work8:05 The overall Senate picture11:50 Probability and range of outcomes in the Senate forecast17:07 Six key races in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Michigan22:00 The overall House picture25:34 Polling averages and credible polls28:06 Use of prediction markets30:05 Audience questions

With the rise of democratic socialism on the left and populism on the right, there has been substantial discussion about how Gen Z will impact the future of American politics. Decision Desk HQ Chief Elections Analyst Geoffrey Skelley spoke with Rachel Janfaza of The Up and Up about what Gen Z voters think about the term “socialism,” as well as the issues — especially economic worries — that are helping drive their views.

---► Geoffrey Skelley on X: https://x.com/geoffreyvs

► Rachel Janfaza on X: https://x.com/racheljanfaza

► The Up and Up on Substack: https://www.theupandup.us/

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► DDHQ Votes: https://votes.decisiondeskhq.com/

► SUBSTACK: https://decisiondeskhq.substack.com/

► JOIN OUR OFFICIAL DISCORD SERVER: https://discord.com/invite/ddhq

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CHAPTERS

2:08 Introducing Rachel Janfaza and The Up and Up

5:57 Gen Z views on socialism, capitalism, and communism

18:35 Gen Z views on the political establishment

27:15 Gen Z worries about the future and the economy

39:14 How swingy are Gen Z voters?