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Decisions in Uncertainty (Part 2): How to Make the Call
So now you have defined the starting point and the ending point. Check out Part 1, “Decisions in Uncertainty (Part 1): When ‘Go Build This’ Is All You Get.” What do you do next? In part two of this conversation, Todd Blaquiere and Ryan Cantwell define the messy middle and give you the playbook for making the call when certainty is still out of reach.
They walk through how to use a decision-making rubric, identify the highest-risk assumption, and test what matters most before a team sinks too much time into the wrong thing. They also dig into one of the hardest parts of product work: how to read unclear signals, weigh imperfect evidence, and know when you have enough confidence to stop researching and start recommending.
If part one was about slowing down long enough to get clear, this episode is about what it takes to move forward anyway. Pull up a chair on the porch and know how to make the call.
Time Stamped Notes:
What should a product manager do after getting clear on the outcome?
[00:00] Part two setup - Episode moves from clarity to decision-making
[01:01] Why this still feels hard - Clear requests can still hide unclear success
[02:19] What defines the target - Business outcomes and customer outcomes shape the call
[04:05] Why success must be defined - Better decisions start with clear success criteria
How can a product manager make a better decision when the answer is not obvious?
[05:13] Why a rubric helps - Shared criteria make hard calls easier
[06:04] What goes into a rubric - Value, demand, fit, timing, and right to win
[07:50] Why weighting matters - Some criteria matter more than others
[08:08] Why confidence matters too - Weak evidence should not count the same as strong evidence
[11:43] What a rubric is really for - Alignment matters more than fake objectivity
How can a product manager figure out what to test first?
[13:07] What the “monkey” means - The highest-risk assumption can kill the idea
[13:32] How to move faster - Tiny Acts of Discovery focus on the biggest risk first
[14:27] Example: missing data - No data can mean no product
[15:31] Example: willingness to pay - Real pain does not always lead to real revenue
How can a product manager test assumptions without fooling the team?
[19:32] Say versus do - Real behavior matters more than polite feedback
[19:54] Why direct asks work - Simple requests can reveal the truth faster
[20:33] What commitment looks like - Pre-orders, signups, and emails show stronger intent
[21:02] What to avoid - Friendly audiences can give false confidence
[22:12] Why the answer stays messy - Evidence is rarely perfect or complete
How does a product manager know when it is time to make the call?
[23:04] How to use the evidence - Outcomes, rubrics, assumptions, and tests work together
[24:07] Why a second lens helps - Another prioritization method can expose weak thinking
[25:01] What “enough confidence” looks like - Full certainty usually never comes
[25:27] When the job changes - Research mode must turn into recommendation mode
[29:06] How to present the call - Start with the ask, the risk, the test, and the recommendation
[30:22] What leaders want first - Executive audiences want the answer up front
[36:00] Who owns the decision - Judgment cannot be handed to someone else
Help keep the Product Porch lights on by giving at https://www.patreon.com/TheProductPorch
Join our email list and never miss an episode at theproductporch.com
View all episodes
By Ryan Cantwell, Todd Blaquiere, Joe GhaliSo now you have defined the starting point and the ending point. Check out Part 1, “Decisions in Uncertainty (Part 1): When ‘Go Build This’ Is All You Get.” What do you do next? In part two of this conversation, Todd Blaquiere and Ryan Cantwell define the messy middle and give you the playbook for making the call when certainty is still out of reach.
They walk through how to use a decision-making rubric, identify the highest-risk assumption, and test what matters most before a team sinks too much time into the wrong thing. They also dig into one of the hardest parts of product work: how to read unclear signals, weigh imperfect evidence, and know when you have enough confidence to stop researching and start recommending.
If part one was about slowing down long enough to get clear, this episode is about what it takes to move forward anyway. Pull up a chair on the porch and know how to make the call.
Time Stamped Notes:
What should a product manager do after getting clear on the outcome?
[00:00] Part two setup - Episode moves from clarity to decision-making
[01:01] Why this still feels hard - Clear requests can still hide unclear success
[02:19] What defines the target - Business outcomes and customer outcomes shape the call
[04:05] Why success must be defined - Better decisions start with clear success criteria
How can a product manager make a better decision when the answer is not obvious?
[05:13] Why a rubric helps - Shared criteria make hard calls easier
[06:04] What goes into a rubric - Value, demand, fit, timing, and right to win
[07:50] Why weighting matters - Some criteria matter more than others
[08:08] Why confidence matters too - Weak evidence should not count the same as strong evidence
[11:43] What a rubric is really for - Alignment matters more than fake objectivity
How can a product manager figure out what to test first?
[13:07] What the “monkey” means - The highest-risk assumption can kill the idea
[13:32] How to move faster - Tiny Acts of Discovery focus on the biggest risk first
[14:27] Example: missing data - No data can mean no product
[15:31] Example: willingness to pay - Real pain does not always lead to real revenue
How can a product manager test assumptions without fooling the team?
[19:32] Say versus do - Real behavior matters more than polite feedback
[19:54] Why direct asks work - Simple requests can reveal the truth faster
[20:33] What commitment looks like - Pre-orders, signups, and emails show stronger intent
[21:02] What to avoid - Friendly audiences can give false confidence
[22:12] Why the answer stays messy - Evidence is rarely perfect or complete
How does a product manager know when it is time to make the call?
[23:04] How to use the evidence - Outcomes, rubrics, assumptions, and tests work together
[24:07] Why a second lens helps - Another prioritization method can expose weak thinking
[25:01] What “enough confidence” looks like - Full certainty usually never comes
[25:27] When the job changes - Research mode must turn into recommendation mode
[29:06] How to present the call - Start with the ask, the risk, the test, and the recommendation
[30:22] What leaders want first - Executive audiences want the answer up front
[36:00] Who owns the decision - Judgment cannot be handed to someone else
Help keep the Product Porch lights on by giving at https://www.patreon.com/TheProductPorch
Join our email list and never miss an episode at theproductporch.com