I’ve been occupied with the 28-point plan all week and this saga. A lot of what I’ve written is about that. Basically, the first intimation I had of the capitulation plan was on the 11th of November, when a journalist wrote in the *Kyiv Post* that the United States was attempting to remove the reference to territorial integrity from the annual UN resolution condemning Russia’s occupation, invasion and aggression against Ukraine. That was an ominous sign. The moment I saw this capitulation plan, I thought of that report.
I first wrote about it on the 21st of November: “Russia’s Escalations in Europe — Scenarios and How Witkoff’s Capitulation Plan Will Backfire.” One: attempt by hitting Ukraine’s allies to intimidate them into even subtle changes of behaviour towards Ukraine. Two: desperately trying to goad a NATO country into attacking Russia back. Like a dead cat on a table, this could be Russia’s only forlorn hope to somehow get something positive out of its current predicament.
I was wondering, as many of us have been, what Russia hopes to achieve by attacking NATO countries and sending drones in. I do have this sense that the unwillingness of Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries to respond aggressively is partly a function of the lack of American support under both the former and current president for NATO. But I also have a strong intuition that they are allowing Russia to exhaust itself, to create these kinetic attacks — and that the purpose of this lack of response, which frustrates all of us and especially Ukrainians, is to allow Russia, in the way you might a toddler, to just play out its aggression. Meanwhile, the main game is arming Ukraine. I saw this week that Norway’s response to the 28-point capitulation plan was to front-load a billion euros in planned arms deliveries to Ukraine.
I’m leaning towards this idea that desperately trying to goad a NATO country into attacking Russia back is what Russia is up to. Like a dead cat on the table, Russia wants to distract us — as it did after Crimea by occupying parts of Luhansk and Donetsk, trying to spur revolts around the rest of Ukraine, then escalating in Syria. We’ve seen this pattern again and again. When Russia hit that LNG carrier on the Danube, that was a big sign — and nothing really seemed to happen in response.
I then wrote: “Donald’s Russian mafia controllers’ latest attempt to goad Ukraine into surrender, at a moment when there are 15 dead Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty in Pokrovsk. Likely it will backfire. It will help bolster President Zelensky when he says no for the nth time since 2019 to Russia’s attempt to troll the West into forcing Ukraine’s capitulation. Meanwhile, the project to dissolve Russia into four to five sovereign states continues.”
I noticed, as some of us might have, this kind of briefing against Umerov, the former defence minister and head of the security council. This journalist who wasn’t on my radar — a lot of people seem to rate her — Kathleen Dombos, extraordinary name. She was briefing about Umerov and Yermak. It struck me that just because we support Ukraine doesn’t mean every journalist covering it understands what’s happening. If one thing we’ve seen this week, it’s that a lot of journalists I’ve never heard of are part of the White House press room and are probably very esteemed in their professions, but that doesn’t mean they know anything about Ukraine or have any understanding of what all of us have been monitoring so closely since the 24th of February 2022 — and which many of us have been monitoring since February 2014, when Russia first invaded.
This kind of breathless reporting of things which you and I, having followed this very closely and having listened to Mokrushyna or Will or Wendy or others each day, understand is just a new cycle of the same old stuff — that’s a phenomenon I’ve noticed. It seemed to me that someone, probably a faction within the American administration, was trying to weaken Ukraine by getting rid of Umerov and Yermak. Yermak in particular has been on this rodeo since November 2019 and is the best person for the role. Because of Rubio’s status as national security advisor, Yermak can meet him directly as his interlocutor, which is very helpful.
I just noticed that undercurrent. I think all of us on Volya Radio do our best not to intervene in Ukrainian internal politics, because just because we support Ukraine 100% doesn’t mean we’ve earned the right to intervene in whatever’s happening internally. But I’ll be watching the campaign against Umerov and Yermak quite closely.
Donald is at his weakest. He can still choose to go all in on Ukraine. He lost the Epstein files vote, with his own party turning against him for the first time this presidency. Then this month’s election defeats — the NYC mayor, Virginia, across the board wins for the Democrat Party, Pennsylvania school boards — mark the beginning of the end for a physically depleting Donald.
Since then, we’ve seen him announce he was going to introduce a bill to restore parts of Obamacare. But Congress members, as soon as they heard, threatened mass resignation. The bill was pulled. The reason they threatened mass resignation — something we haven’t seen over the cutting of USAID or ICE or anything else — was because they hadn’t been consulted and they’re sick of being treated like slaves. The White House handling of Congress has weakened Donald considerably. Because of this weakness, he’s allowed Russia to come out with this ridiculousness of the 28-point plan.
Then there’s the fact that Russia’s central bank printed 1.65% of Russia’s GDP equivalent in new rubles last week — the Bank of Russia is the source for that. To put it in context, the United States printed about 20% of GDP during COVID and an equivalent amount during the financial crisis. Russia is at 1.65% of GDP — and of course that GDP denominator is probably a lie from 2023, so the real figure is likely higher. We’ve got a little way to go, but the trajectory is clear. I think that’s what explains this haste with the plan.
I was quite happy with this one: “Donald’s Thanksgiving Turkey.” Americans are mad at Donald for two and a half thousand appearances in the Epstein files. Ukraine needs to give Donald a Thanksgiving turkey. Crazy reasoning from Donald’s people. Thankfully, nothing is going to happen over Thanksgiving. This is the same pattern we’ve seen again and again.
I thought Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation was a significant bellwether. Now these threats by Congress members en masse to resign their seats and give the Democrats a majority underpin my immediate reaction to her resignation: she is archetyping herself for a run for the presidency. She and Steve Bannon — who I believe is her controller, her puppeteer, the person who gives her her lines — he clearly sees her as a vehicle to propel him to the presidency. According to Michael Wolff, Epstein’s biographer, Steve Bannon sees himself as presidential material. Maybe he sees MTG as a better vehicle. But in any case, that was a harbinger for what we’ve subsequently seen with the other Congress members.
All of this feeds into interpreting what Donald is up to. His chances of success in forcing Ukraine into surrender or withholding intelligence support are in proportion to his power fading.
A lot of people are questioning what’s going on inside the administration. When I was studying intellectual history at Georgetown University as a postgraduate, I had this amazing teacher, Hisham Sharabi — one of the great Arab intellectuals, Palestinian intellectuals of the twentieth century. He ran the full gamut from helping the PLO in the armed struggle, to teaching Bill Clinton at Georgetown, to being celebrated at the time of the Oslo Accords and given credit for helping Clinton put that deal together. By the end of his life, Sharabi was against the Oslo Accords. He taught me intellectual history and was a great scholar and writer.
The gender aspect — my ability to perceive that Russia conceives of Ukraine as a woman and to look for that language in Putler’s speeches — comes from Sharabi. When Putler used that phrase on the 20th of February 2022, citing this song “Sleeping Beauty in a Coffin” by Red Mould, a Soviet-era hard rock band — “I did a horrid thing to her and she was dead, and I said to her: take it, my beauty” — international lawyers saw this as an expression of the intention to commit genocide against Ukraine and the perception of Ukraine as a dead woman, a corpse.
My ability to see this comes from a great book Sharabi wrote called *A Theory of Neopatriarchy*, in which he tried to explain why the Arab world’s worship of the father was the reason it hadn’t developed along democratic lines. He introduced me to Frantz Fanon, the great intellectual who wrote *Black Skin, White Masks*. The idea is that we constantly get fooled by identities. Georgian Dream archetypes itself as nationalists, but in fact they’re Russians. Confused American commentators don’t understand what’s going on. Do they think Witkoff is stupid? No — he’s Russian mafia adjacent. You just have the Russian mafia negotiating with itself. All of these real-estate millionaires, now billionaires — Donald, Kushner, Witkoff — these are all Russian mafia adjacent people, and the Russian mafia situation is just an internal negotiation.
Fanon’s masterpiece describes the strategy white-supremacist colonialists use: conceal the white-supremacist occupiers by coercing Black Africans to impose the settlers’ will. Similarly, Russia gets Americans to act as a veneer for its imperialist advances into the American mind. Russia’s Brighton Beach, New York real-estate mafia — Donald, Epstein, Kushner, Witkoff — running America. American foreign policy being directed by the Russian mafia. It’s that simple.
Then we’ve seen these tapes today, which I think were probably leaked by the Russians, by Ushakov, mainly because he’s the one who appears on both of them. I also had this idea from Evelyn Waugh, the great English novelist and one of my favourite writers. He did this great parody of what Hollywood screenwriters are like: you start off with the script for Macbeth, and by the time everyone’s put their oar in three months later, you end up with Julius Caesar or something.
I had this idea that Kvartal 95 — the part of Kryvyi Rih where President Zelensky grew up, which I visited many times — that this notion of rewriting scripts, which President Zelensky and his wife and all those around him are very professionally good at, applies here. You start off with a 28-point plan and then you turn it into something opposite. Ironically, it’s precisely Kvartal 95’s infinite script-rewriting experience that enables them to transform *The Tempest* into *Cymbeline*, one character at a time.
I’ve been very curious about why Silicon Valley is so anti-Ukraine. By Silicon Valley, I really mean these four South African billionaires who were part of the PayPal mafia and made PayPal go public. The money they earned established the seed capital for Google, Facebook, LinkedIn — everything. The whole second wave. When I was at business school, we studied Silicon Valley and its institutional and cultural makeup that enables it to repeatedly resurrect itself and transform itself over the decades. A lot of the literature I read was from the 1990s, and it always struck me as amazing that Google and Facebook and all the companies that enabled the AI revolution weren’t even existing then.
These four billionaires — Andreessen and David Sacks, whom I’d never heard of before the Ukraine war, and Elon Musk, who was kind of a late arrival, and Peter Thiel, who literally isn’t South African but spent his teenage years in a South African boarding school as his father was in mining — they brought capital from apartheid South Africa. That capital established PayPal, then colonised Silicon Valley, and now that money has colonised our minds. They own everything from Substack to you name it.
It was always very curious to me why they’re so anti-Ukraine. I’ve previously written about how Putler’s money — whatever it is, a trillion dollars or euros that the Russian elite have — I suspect there’s a big missing chunk. If you look in venture capital funds, that money will be there. What could be precipitating this very fast acceleration? I suspect billions of Putler’s money is invested through surrogates in Silicon Valley venture capital funds. The VCs know whose money it is. Much of the so-called AI bubble is powered by illicit Russian cash going around Silicon Valley.
What happens as Russia’s economy implodes, which we’ve all been watching for months? Russian mobsters and their proxies will start calling that money in. If you’re running a venture capital fund in Silicon Valley — Andreessen Horowitz or whoever — with maybe twenty-five funds at various stages involving billions, and Russian mobsters start calling that money in, it’s very complicated to unwind funds. The Russians have the FSB and state security forces behind them. It’s much simpler to get 42 million Ukrainians to pay the price. Save Russia at all costs to save the Palo Alto housing market. Now you know why David Sacks and other South African billionaires running Silicon Valley care about Ukraine’s capitulation.
The Fourteenth Amendment — which meant that people who engaged in insurrection could not hold official office in the United States — had the political will been there, the case in the Colorado Supreme Court, which found that Donald Trump shouldn’t have been on the ballot, could have been dispositive. Had the Republican Party not planned for this eventuality by owning the Supreme Court, and had the obstruction of the federal January 6th case not led to the immunity decision, and had the Georgia case not been obstructed — I see that in Arizona they’ve just resurrected one of the January 6th fake electors cases. The mechanism was there: Donald Trump was ineligible. He engaged in insurrection. This was ruled on by the Colorado Supreme Court and in a variety of different cases. I read the federal indictments. It was an open and shut case.
Because it’s such a multi-dimensional takeover of the government — from January 6th itself to the decades-long Federalist Society takeover of the Supreme Court to this kind of hypnotic stuff — the law wasn’t enforced. I have enormous respect for the founding fathers and anyone trying to come up with constitutions. I studied the English constitution in great depth at Cambridge as a law student.
I had this debate with a great human rights law professor who was always more worried about America than I was, and I was always more worried about England. What happened around the prorogation — the unlawful suspension of Parliament to stop them voting — that same weakness has become commonplace. You can close down Congress for two months because you don’t want the Epstein files released.
One of my other great teachers, John Collier at Trinity College, Cambridge, taught us — in reference to South Africa and apartheid — about how the parents of some people he’d been at Cambridge with were Supreme Court judges in South Africa in the 1930s. They tried to hold apartheid back, and eventually the Parliament just legislated to put more members in the upper house and rammed it through, and darkness returned. His teaching, which in 1999 was quite quaint but also very emotionally charged — I didn’t think that fifteen years later he’d be talking about exactly the same thing with the ERG and the absence of a deep state in England to protect us from the prorogation. Boris lying to the Queen, the head of state, trolling her into proroguing Parliament.
He said: politicians and judges can only do so much. At a certain point, the politicians will come in and ram things through. Sometimes the judges can hold things up long enough for the heroes to ride to the rescue. Unfortunately, the Supreme Court held the line, but Johnson won that election in December 2019 and did his terrible things. We’ve seen the same structure in America.
Let me finish with where I think we’re at. The chances of any peace plan working are zero. Ukraine are masters at ensuring there’s something in any proposal that the Russians will never accept. Failing all else, Ukraine would just drop the Kerch Bridge if peace requiring the abandonment of its people under occupation or territory was imminent.
For example, Ukraine agreeing to a limit of an army of 800,000 souls may sound entirely reasonable to an American negotiator. However, to the Russian who supposedly invaded Ukraine to demilitarise it, it’s impossible to accept. Likewise, when President Macron says “we have a multinational force from 13 nations ready to enter Ukraine the moment peace is agreed,” I believe he’s subtly trolling the Russians. Not that it is any of the Russians’ business what Ukraine does on its land. But having falsely alleged that NATO moving closer to Russia was the reason it had to sacrifice almost one and a half million Russians to kill a few hundred thousand native Russian-speaking Ukrainians and eviscerate old cities, it would be impossible to sell any peace that involves a multinational force inside Ukraine.
Russia will continue fighting until it destroys itself utterly. I think Ukraine will end up keeping Donald on board only to provide intelligence assistance, which, as we know, is all America is really providing now. As Will Thiel set out perhaps four months ago, Ukraine’s dominant strategy is to maintain that intelligence assistance but not hope for anything more.
The leverage the European countries have is significant. Norway this week front-loaded a billion to buy American weapons. This gives tremendous leverage over Lockheed Martin and the other companies, who in turn will put pressure on Congress members and senators to pressure Donald to continue allowing Ukraine to buy these weapons systems. Germany, Portugal and others are paying for them. So Donald’s America has limited leverage — but is acting like Ukraine’s ultimate victory depends on America, which it doesn’t.
The intelligence support is really helpful but not irreplaceable now, as Japan and other countries are helping Ukraine with satellite targeting. By respecting Donald so much — when really any normal human being would tell him to take a hike — President Zelensky is maximising the chances of retaining intelligence support and maintaining the strong support of important senators and the people around Donald. It’s an investment for the future. By not alienating Donald and handling it so well, this is a masterclass in diplomacy.
The Epstein files vote, the threatening to resign en masse over Donald’s healthcare bill, and the universal characterisation of the 28-point plan as a “capitulation plan” are all significant. I went through the real capitulation plan in November 2019, when I was working in the Dnipro office, when Yermak had initialled the Steinmeier Formula. There were “No to Capitulation” rallies across Ukraine. Even the introduction of this term “capitulation” — the Ukrainians had it ready-made because we went through this whole process where tens of thousands of people rallied across Ukraine. I monitored many of these rallies for the OSCE. I was immediately convinced these were real — not tітушки, not fake paid protesters. These are true patriotic Ukrainians who have fought, and whose families have fought since 2014, and who will not capitulate.
That point of view is now mainstream. We see in the polls released in the last couple of days that 76% of Ukrainians believe Ukraine can win, and about 75% believe that even if America withholds intelligence support, they should fight on. Even low-information people saw this as a capitulation plan. The Russians kind of overdid it.
Then we see Budanov meeting Driscoll in the UAE to troll him with drone tech. Ukraine has something significant. Obviously there are dangers ahead, but I think Ukraine will get through this and continue exhausting and destroying Russia — which I have believed since I tweeted about it on the 1st of March 2022.
Ukraine’s dominant strategy — what its leaders are actually doing, aside from what they have to say they’re doing — and what many of our countries’ leaders understand, whether it’s the Scandinavian countries, Denmark, Norway, Poland and others, is that Russia, just as Napoleon exhausted himself, will exhaust itself in Ukraine. It won’t accept any deal. But Ukraine has the capacity to tickle it whenever it’s getting close. I didn’t even think this latest plan was getting close, but Ukraine can always find a way to ensure the Russians refuse the deal and get archetyped — archetype themselves — as being a mess and not wanting peace. Obviously the whole thing is ridiculous, that Ukraine has to archetype someone’s peace. But that’s where I think we are at the moment.
⚡️Donald’s Thanksgiving Turkey
‘Americans are mad at Donald for 2,500+ appearances in Epstein Files.
So Ukraine needs to give Donald a ‘thanks-giving’ Turkey.’
Crazy reasoning from Donald’s people.
P.S. note the function of Donald’s signature on his Epstein card.
⚡️American Skins, Masking Russians.
Fanon’s masterpiece described the strategy white supremacist colonialists used: conceal white supremacist occupiers by coercing Black Africans to impose the settler’s will.
Similarly, Russia gets Americans to act as a veneer for its imperialist advances into the American mind.
American Russian mafia fronts
Russia’s Brighton Beach New York real estate mafia-adjacent dons (Epstyn, Kushner, Trump, Witkoff,…) running America.
“American” foreign policy being directed by the Russian mafia.
It’s that simple.
⚡️Evergreen “Trump admin plans Ukrainian coup” again tweet.
Rubio claims “Ukrainian input” into capitulation plan. Ex-Party of the Regions (pro-Russia) Ukrainian MP @GoncharenkoUa supports it.
Paul Manafort, Donald’s felon adviser, earned $30m from advising @GoncharenkoUa former party - 2004-2014.
Before Party of the Regions’s attempt to divide Ukraine and hand it over to Russia failed.
Today, treacherous Ukrainians in league with Donald, his Russian mafia fronts and others attempt to hand Ukrainian and Russian security over to Russia.
They will fail.
⚡️Bannon, for whom MTG works/acts, clearly sees Marjorie Taylor Greene as his vehicle to capture the US (vice presidency for himself) presidency for her. Her resignation is the canary in the coal mine and harbinger of doom for Don’s presidency (and so it goes).
⚡️Ruschia’s Weimar Inflation Consolation
Ruschia printed more than 1.64% of GDP in new money.
Ruschia may have printed 1.64% of its GDP this week - but don’t worry: Weimar and Zimbabwe printed more than that in one day.
Ruschia went full-on Nazi first.
Now, Ruschia has gone full-on Weimar.
According to Russia’s central bank (https://cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/repo/) Russia printed the equivalent of more than 1.64% of its GDP in new roubles this week.
2,830,000 Million new Russian roubles were born this week. Russian banks then use these newly minted rubles to buy Russian government bonds.
This is on top of massive Repo sales (quantitative easing) every week over the past eight months.
In case you haven’t yet gotten the memo: Russia is dissolving.
P.S. this 1.64% of GDP figure is overly generous. It’s based on Ruschia’s false gdp number for 2023.
⚡️Donald is at his weakest.
He can still choose to go All In on Ukraine.
He lost the Epstein Files vote, with his own party turning against him for the first time this presidency.
This month’s election defeats for Donald (NYC mayor, Virginia, Pennsylvania school boards,…) mark the beginning of the end for physically depleting Donald.
Instead in his weakness he allowed Russia to come out with this ridiculousness.
Last week Russian central bank printed 1.5% of Russia’s GDP in new roubles. The highest Repo printing yet. Its people are freezing. Internetless. It’s rumoured the defence minister is being lined up by the elite to replace Putler.
Russia could just leave Crimea, pay its debts, say sorry.
Instead it chooses every day atrocity after atrocity.
There will be no peace in Europe until Russia is utterly defeated, denazified and turns into 5-6 new sovereigns.
⚡️On Russia’s escalations in Europe - Scenarios, and how Witkoff capitulation plan will backfire.
Why does Russia keep attacking European powers?
1. Attempt by hitting Ukraine’s allies to intimidate them into even subtle changes of behaviour towards Ukraine.
2. Desperately trying to goad a NATO country into attacking Russia back. Like a dead cat on a table, this could be Russia’s only forlorn hope to somehow get something positive out of its current predicament.
I’m erring towards the 2nd view, mainly because of how unresponsive NATO states are being to these kinetic armed attacks:
Russia hit a Turkish LNG carrier on Ukraine’s side of the Danube three days ago-Romania had to evacuate 200 people and all their animals from two villages on their side of the river, etc.
Meanwhile, western countries are giving Ukraine hitherto unheard of weapons systems like the Gripen, Rafaele and US allowed Ukraine to use US ballistic ATTACMs cluster munitions on a Russian airfield well inside Russia, for the first time, the other day.
Inside Russia: it’s fucked: steel-making down hugely (in the middle of a war!!), lots of industries (cars, steel) down to four day weeks, wired Internet suspended in 23 regions across Russia except for government services, many regions facing immediate financial bankruptcy, black outs, glut of Russian oil no one will buy on the high seas cos Ukraine keeps hitting oil terminals, infrastructure and storage, electricity substations out all over Russia due to strikes, 400 of Russia’s most elite nuclear researchers recorded a video to put in appealing for back wages (their employer state-owned Rosatom still has ~50% of global uranium market yet they can’t pay their scientists), and heaps of other such indicators.
Donald’s Russian mafia controller’s latest attempt to goad Ukraine into surrender (at a moment when there’s 15 dead Russian soldiers for every Ukrainian casualty in Pokrovsk (a town Russia was supposed to have taken two years ago)).
Likely, it will backfire: it will help bolster president Zelenskyy when he says ‘non’ for the Nth time since 2019 to Russia’s attempt to troll the West into forcing Ukraine’s capitulation.
Meanwhile the project to dissolve Russian state into 4-5 sovereigns that can no longer pose a threat to Ukraine continues.
⚡️Donald’s BBC America shake-down in collusion with far-right English pro-Brexit establishment English nationalists.
Ambush of the BBC by the far right who, ironically, run the BBC (all Sunak, Johnson’s mates and the pro-“Reform” promoters).
Highly suspicious that it was the far-right paleo-conservative pro-Brexit/pro-‘Farage-‘Reform’ Torygraph which exposed what appears to me to be a completely non-story:
It’s clear from both the Federal Jan 6 indictment and the Georgia Jan 6 indictment (both approved by grand juries) that Donald was guilty of insurrection against the US.
Donald planned Jan 6 as a means of seizing power.
Amy documentary which does not communicate this truth is wilfully participating in Donald’s sinister campaign to erase the truth about Jan 6:
cf. pardoning those convicted of sedition and insurrection, persecution and prosecutions of those who exposed it.
Branding Jan 6 criminals as ‘hostages.’ Playing Kash Patel’s co-produced ‘Jan 6 anthem’ instead of the national anthem at election campaign events.
Chances of Donald actually going to court against BBC are nil.
It’s a shake-down and attempt to get the already obsequious BBC not to report any truth in relation to Donald in the US. BBC is one of the most trusted news sources in the US. It’s actually only in the UK where BBC news coverage seems to have a far right, paleo-conservative bias.
Would be nice though if Labour would exploit this situation to get rid of all the far right Tory-appointed pro Brexit pro-Reform people in BBC including the board.
⚡️ something macabre and comical about Russia’s megalomaniacal insistence on taking towns they’ve turned to ashes.
All the while Ukraine eviscerates. Russia’s SOLE revenue earning industry (fossil fuel).
I mean, Russia if you’re listening, can’t you understand that while Ukraine and your blood-lust is distracting you, you’re being bombed back into the Stone Age? All 1/6 of the world’s surface of you.
Kvartal95’s greatest production.
⚡️Russian ‘Hunter Biden’ troll author, Duma member Derkach suspected in Energy scheme.
It’s indeed possible Mindich and co were merely well remunerated un/knowing Russian assets.
“It is essential to understand that in Ukraine, corruption is often intertwined with state treason and with advancing Russian interests. In this case, the suspected money-laundering schemes connected to the energy sector lead back to the network of Andriy Derkach—an officially designated Russian agent. Though formerly a Ukrainian politician, he is now a member of the Russian parliament. Members of his team were employed inside Energoatom and participated in the corruption scheme.”
⚡️Ruschian missile aimed at Kyiv’s main children’s hospital.
The “successful” strike is yet more evidence of genocidal intent (Mens Rea).
The actus reus of the crime of genocide is the hit itself.
The aiming of the missile against the children’s hospital discloses the Mens Rea (Intention / Mental Element) of the crime.
⚡️To naive letter writers about peace.
Do you think Ruschia would welcome your naive letters about peace, if Ruschia had a chance of winning on the battlefield?
Ruschia bombs children’s hospitals because in the past year it lost 250,000 soldiers to capture 750 sq.km of Ukraine.
Ukraine de-occupied 1,500 sq.km from Ruschism in 2022!
At this rate the f attrition Ruschia would need a further 200m Ruschists to capture all of Ukraine. Yet, of course not only does Ruschia no longer have an army (guys on electric mopeds don’t count as soldiers), Ukraine is manufacturing 120,000 armed drones a month.
This war will be won on the battlefield- by Ukraine.
Ruschia understands this - which is why it’s so desperate for a ceasefire.
This is what you are being used by Ruschia to secure. A ceasefire, because Russia understand that within the next year Ukraine will be sending 50,000 armed drones to hit military targets across defenceless Ruschia. This will happen, whether you write letters or not.
I spent 2015-2022 in eastern Ukraine, as a diplomat, monitoring Ruschia’s compliance with Minsk I and Minsk II.
Ruschia broke its commitments every single day. In 2003, Putler himself signed a Treaty with Ukraine recognising Ukraine - Ruschia border.
Ukraine is not stupid.
Ukraine will press on until there is a 200km wide waste land inside Ruschia along side the border. A waste land without ANY humans. A sanctuary for wildlife and animals. A demilitarised zone.
Ruschia’s only strategy is to withdraw from 100% of Ukraine, pay Ukraine £2t in compensation, and return the 700,000 stolen Ukrainian children and 2m stolen Ukrainian adults.
Sooner it does that the better - for itself and for you letter writers.
⚡️Why Ruschia Bombs Hospitals?
To please International Relations (IR) Scholars.
‘Escalate to deescalate’ is Ruschia’s governing Military Doctrine as communicated into the minds of Western security policy makers.
Ruschia’s ‘Escalate to De-escalate’ Military Doctrine is a Troll.
Ruschia uses self-declared military doctrine memos to troll International Relations (IR) into misinterpreting reality.
Ruschia’s published military doctrine doesn’t include the Meat Wave Assailts that have killed 300,000 of its soldiers in Ukraine.
Yet, IR hacks still believe Ruschia adheres to the doctrinal instruments it publishes about how it fights wars.
IR educated souls in charge of our security (and who study in Ruschia-funded institutions like @BlavatnikSchool at my Alma mater @UniofOxford) read Ruschist doctrine, not as an example of hybrid warfare, but as a description of how Ruschia fights wars.
So instead of interpreting Ruschia’s war of aggression as a means of killing and destroying EVERYTHING west of the Don River that Ruschia can get away with obliterating.
@JakeSullivan46 and co see Ruschia’s ‘Escalations’ as a Good Thing. “Ruschia’s Signaling it Wants to De-Escalate.”
Result? Ruschia escalates by occupying Crimea, then Luhansk and Donetsk, interfering in our political systems (Trump-Brexitism). Carpet-bombs Syria (Sept 2015-), … Full-Scale invasion of Ukraine…
And instead of perceiving the reality of the situation (Ruschia won’t stop until it is stopped), IR professionals and amateur geopolitical strategists interpret these activities as: “Signs Ruschia Wants Peace.”
In reality, Ruschia has brainwashed these lost souls, using IR Disinfolklore, into seeing Ruschist aggression as some kind of Faery Tale with a happy ending of peace. “Just surrender,” Ruschia’s Big Bad Wolf Disinfolklore brainwashes us, “We promise we won’t gobble up anything else. We just want to eat Crimea, we mean Luhansk, Donetsk, okay Kyiv too, maybe a bit of Poland… but by the time we get to Lisbon, okay just Oporto, and a smidgeon of Alaska…”
As @ZelenskyyUa said ages ago: “Ruschia is the fatted calf who won’t stop eating.”
Yet, IR educated ‘strategists’ think every time Ruschia blows up another dam, commits Ecocide, that’s just Ruschia escalating to de-escalate.
Don’t fall for trolls, however disguised. Ruschia’s Disinfolklore troll “Don’t Poke the Bear” is the most successful means of deterring us from exercising our UN Charter Art 51 right to self-defence EVER. It feeds our hunger for passivity. Our desire for a happy ending. Our dream that Ruschia really just wants peace even though you don’t even need to wear a short skirt to provoke it into turning your body politic and your land into a crime scene.
But “Escalate to De-escalate” is a close second.
And ‘Putin is quietly signalling he wants peace’ while he murders dozens of Ukrainians, tortures thousands, and keeps millions captive daily, a close third.
Look at the data, not what Ruschia says it’s doing.
Arm Ukraine now.
⚡️Russia’s Reverse Napoleon - Reversed. Then, Reversed again, before meeting its Waterloo.
By invading Ukraine with insufficient supply lines even to take Kyiv, Russia, a victim of French Napoleonic imperialism, mirrored Napoleon’s error.
This First “Reverse Napoleon” led to Russia’s defeat at Mostyn on 27 March 2022, and its retreat from Kyiv Region by 29 March 2022.
The first signs that Ruschia’s army was rubbish emerged by early March - I called this a “Reverse Napoleon” invasion on 1st March 2022, as the Ruschist army couldn’t communicate, ran in easily destroyed convoys with chaps casually sitting atop tanks,… Errors, which still haven’t been rectified.
“Reverse Napoleon 2” was when Russia decided to invade itself - the Chef’s March on Rostov was less Gates of Vienna, and more Monty Python’s Life of Brian.
Having lost 75,000 souls failing to take a small Ukrainian city in nine months the Chef Wanger Nazi could have reached Moscow in less than 24 hours -
So much for the second army in the world!
The Third Napoleon: Russia’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine itself is a Napoleonic scale tribute act of disaster piled on disaster that must have Ukraine, Germany, Sweden, China, Japan, and Finland (and maybe even Jupiter Macron) planning to retake their historical lands from Muscovy.
Currently, Ukraine has gone from a few mouldy Javelin missile systems to being able to use US provided artillery inside a 100km zone of Ruschia itself. F-16s are imminent. And Ukraine is (currently) manufacturing 120,000 deadly drones a month - and it only takes one of these to detonate a massive missile storage facility inside Ruschia’s Voronhaz region. Pop.
Now, the Pièce de La Resistance:
Having put all their “hopes” in one madcap scheme after another (famine Africa, Republicans will win Senate, Ukraine will surrender,…), after Macron went All-In in France’s military support for Ukraine, Ruschia hoped for a victory of its client party.
Instead, a pro-Ukraine coalition has won the balance of power.
So now, that hope is reversed too.
Meanwhile, since February 2024, Ruschia been sacrificing 1,200 Ruschists a day in Ukraine (RIP), its tanks have been replaced with electric scooters, its guns with sticks, and its PPE with wooden ‘armour plates.’
Ruschia needs to send its midget Napoleon Putler to Elba, as soon China will reoccupy its ancient territories in the east.
Ukraine is true reversal for the current Czar that cannot be reversed.
⚡️Why Vance/Silicon Valley Want Ukraine’s Capitulation.
Billions of Putler’s money is invested through surrogates in Silicon Valley Venture Capital funds.
The VCs know whose money it is.
Much of the so-called AI bubble is powered by illicit Russian cash.
Now, what happens as Russia’s economy implodes?
Russian mobsters and their proxies start calling that money in.
Venture Capital funds will need to be unwound.
Much simpler to get 42m Ukrainians to pay the price.
Save Russia, at all costs, to save the Palo Alto housing market!
Now you know why David Sacks and other South African billionaires running SV care about Ukraine’s capitulation.
“According to a report by the Russian Okno Project, an increasing number of families across Russia are not being paid their 1 million ruble ($12,739) initial death benefits due to the growing budget crunch…
“According to public information published by the Ministry of Finance, Moscow’s 2025 budget deficit has grown to $51.9 billion through October. Currently, the shortfall is 1.6% of GDP, but the Kremlin has admitted that by the end of the year, the deficit will grow to an estimated 2.6% of GDP. Almost 40 kopecks of every ruble is going to fund the military, military benefits, and internal state security. Another 16 kopecks is needed to service the national debt…According to the Moscow Times, 61 of 83
Russian federal subjects are facing regional budget deficits. The Volgograd Oblast has a 24% shortfall, and the Irkutsk Oblast is facing a 35% budget deficit. Last month, the governor of the Kursk Oblast, Alexander Khinstein, sought a loan to bridge the region’s budget deficit. No Russian bank was willing to assist, forcing Khinstein to announce sweeping austerity measures.” (h/t @MalcontentmentT)
“Izvestia: Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant has temporarily suspended production of the expedition version of its model, the UAZ SGR Expedition.”
“Bloomberg: Russian oil offered India refineries $7 discount per barrel.”
“Newsweek: Russia Has Run Out of Money to Pay Its Soldiers—Regional Finance Minister”
“Russia’s oil and gas revenue may fall in November by 35%,
Reuters calculations show.”
“The Ministry of Finance has noted the creation of artificial sources of financing for budget deficits by regions.
Moscow. October 8. INTERFAX.RU - The Ministry of Finance wants to put a stop to the practice of regions artificially creating sources to finance their budget deficits, which has been identified in several federal subjects, through amendments to the Budget Code.”
“Despite Putin’s attempts to revitalize the arms export industry, no one wants Russian weapons anymore.
2021 $12.5b
2023 - $3 billion
2024 - $1 billion.
@JamestownTweets”
“Moscow Times: Dimitriev’s NWF held 405.7 tons of gold before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The Finance Ministry has since sold 57%, or 232.6 tons, to cover budget shortfalls, leaving 173.1 tons as of Nov. 1.”
“Deficits across the regions have exploded to $8.1B this year, after a surplus last year. More than eight regions have already slashed enlistment bonuses from the equivalent of $30-35k down to just $4.5k.” @KShevchenkoReal
“MilitaryNewsUA
@front_ukrainian - Nov 6
Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s largest manufacturer of railway cars and the main supplier of tanks to tharmy, is launching a major wave of staff cuts, E1 reports. According to the publication, 10% of its workforce will be laid off by February 2026. The company will also stop…”
“The body is not healthy.” The government has reported almost complete lack of economic growth for the second month in a row.”
“Russia’s oil revenues are collapsing.
Minus $25B in 2025, crude selling at half price. Sanctions + Ukrainian strikes are hitting hard — U24.
Ukraine strikes Novorossiysk and refineries almost daily. Seaborne exports fall 130k bpd. 350M barrels sit in tankers with no use.” @Mylovanov
⚡️Russia is collapsing.
“The total amount of problem loans of legal entities on bank balance sheets by the end of the third quarter reached 10.4 trillion rubles, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation said on Friday. Since the beginning of the year, debts for which companies and individual entrepreneurs could not pay off on time have increased by 1.9 trillion rubles, and in the third quarter - by 600 billion.”
“@Beefeater_Fella Putin was informed about the collapse of raw material revenues and the increase in collections from Russians
Oil and gas revenues of the Russian budget have decreased by 2 trillion rubles this year, Federal Tax Service head Daniil Egorov told Vladimir Putin at a meeting in the Kremlin.
Despite the decline in raw material revenues and a deficit exceeding 4 trillion rubles, “the budget is stable,”
Egorov assured.
According to him, more taxes are being collected from the non-raw sector of the economy — plus 3 trillion rubles since the beginning of the year.”
“@Jonpy99: One of the biggest MT-LB bases prewar, the 7004th is now all but empty. Even most trucks are gone, but what’s interesting, I can only spot 3 bad looking MT-LBs left here.”
“Yakutia’s Minister of Finance Ivan Alekseev went on television to report that payments to participants in the war in Ukraine are suspended due to a shortage of budget funds.”
“Russian AvtoVAZ just admitted: 2025 car sales crashed 25% to only ~370k units.
Advertised by Putin Lada’s market share plunged from 25% → 20%.
Even Putin’s “save Russian cars” scrap fees got delayed twice after public outrage.
Russians panic-bought foreign cars while the Chinese quietly take over the market.
The Lada era is dying.”
“Russia’s Novatek, the country’s largest LNG producer, is now selling #LNG to China at !. 30-40%.! discounts — a direct consequence of U.S. #Sanctions pressure on the Arctic LNG-2 project. The company couldn’t sell a single cargo for 20 months.
Exports only resumed after Novatek offered gas at $3-4 below the Asian benchmark and at $28-32M per shipment — far below the $44M+ market value. Such”
“Russia’s largest coal mining firm Mechel continues to spiral into oblivion as part of general collapse in Russia’s natural resource sector, today posting catastrophic 3rd quarter earnings.
Coal production down another 38% over 9 months, and TOTAL anthracite production stopped, zero production in the third quarter.
From earnings report.” @JayinKyiv
“kremlin no longer tries to hide behind excuses and openly admits: mobile internet shutdowns in russia are approved at the highest level
putin’s spokesperson dmitry peskov stated that the kremlin “fully supports” mobile internet restrictions allegedly introduced to counter drones”
“AKORT noted that past experience with price fluctuations for buckwheat, sugar, eggs, and other products has shown that such fluctuations are difficult to predict. Attempts to regulate them result in products flowing into the
“gray market,” where dealers sell them at reduced prices without official permission.”
“Bank of Russia prints 1.65% of GDP to buy government bonds, just last week.
Get full access to Decoding Trolls at www.decodingtrolls.net/subscribe
