Blain’s Morning Porridge 30th, April 2026 – Defence: too complex, too difficult, which is why you must invest!

“If you want to value the price of freedom and defence – take a look at the failed Soviet economies.”

Defence is among the most difficult areas to invest. Who would become an analyst after 30-years as a Cinderella sector in the wake of ESG and peace dividends? Now, the imperative for new defence investment is crying out for private capital. That puts a clear premium on knowledge, contacts and skill to invest. Here is a solution. 

Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will be aware that a large part of my “day-job” focus is on the defence sector. This morning I will be part-talking my own book - I am senior advisor to the Defence Fund, Spitfire Strategic Capital.

Security is the single most important function of government. Defence is a critical part of the economy in terms of multipliers and innovation. Yet the sector is widely misunderstood by politicians and under-analysed by the investment community. Politicians box-tick security spending as if it’s a choice rather than necessity. Many major funds simply don’t invest in defence – full-stop. Other’s dip cautious toes in the water, thinking a small allocation to BAE or Rheinmetall will make the war-risks to the global economy go away.

Time to wake up and smell the coffee. The world has changed.

Conflicts happen because states perceive weakness and see the opportunity for a win. Trump spun the dice on Venezuela and won. He doubled down seeing an easy play in Iran. Bad roll. Now the war is a Stalemate, with oil touching record levels this morning. The economic consequences will likely cost Trump the November mid-terms, leaving him lame-ducked and very, very angry – raising additional US political polarisation risks.

Let me blunt about the consequences of War.

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