Blain’s Morning Porridge 30th, April 2026 – Defence: too complex, too difficult, which is why you must invest!

“If you want to value the price of freedom and defence – take a look at the failed Soviet economies.”

Defence is among the most difficult areas to invest. Who would become an analyst after 30-years as a Cinderella sector in the wake of ESG and peace dividends? Now, the imperative for new defence investment is crying out for private capital. That puts a clear premium on knowledge, contacts and skill to invest. Here is a solution. 

Regular readers of the Morning Porridge will be aware that a large part of my “day-job” focus is on the defence sector. This morning I will be part-talking my own book - I am senior advisor to the Defence Fund, Spitfire Strategic Capital.

Security is the single most important function of government. Defence is a critical part of the economy in terms of multipliers and innovation. Yet the sector is widely misunderstood by politicians and under-analysed by the investment community. Politicians box-tick security spending as if it’s a choice rather than necessity. Many major funds simply don’t invest in defence – full-stop. Other’s dip cautious toes in the water, thinking a small allocation to BAE or Rheinmetall will make the war-risks to the global economy go away.

Time to wake up and smell the coffee. The world has changed.

Conflicts happen because states perceive weakness and see the opportunity for a win. Trump spun the dice on Venezuela and won. He doubled down seeing an easy play in Iran. Bad roll. Now the war is a Stalemate, with oil touching record levels this morning. The economic consequences will likely cost Trump the November mid-terms, leaving him lame-ducked and very, very angry – raising additional US political polarisation risks.

Let me blunt about the consequences of War.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 29th, 2026 – Malta, The King, The Gulf and whatever next….

“America’s words carry weight and meaning… the actions of this great nation matter even more...”

Interesting times indeed. Mr Market seldom looks beyond the end of his own nose, but the World is looking increasingly fraxious these days. Big nations have ever bigger problems. Maybe smaller ones will do better? The end of strong states often results in smaller nations competing harder to thrive! 

Apologies for the lack of Morning Porridge the last few days. I’ve been in Malta – a mix of business and pleasure. Having withstood two incredible sieges in the last 500 years, Malta resonates with lessons from history – and history informs markets (if they are prepared to listen.) 

What has Malta got to do with markets you wonder? Little and everything. Today the market is trading small wave to small wave – weighing up the implications of what the solved Fed Head impasse means, disappointing OpenAI numbers mean for the change AI promises to enact across the whole economy, or wondering what the next Trump outburst might do to sentiment. They pay less attention to developing situations, like what the long-term consequences of the exit of the UAE from OPEC and the rift between the Gulf States and Saudi might ultimately mean. 

Watch events carefully. They highlight how the world is changing and evolving – not necessarily to the advantage of the powers in positions of apparent strength. NATO has been the cornerstone of the most successful defence and economic alliance of all time. OPEC has dominated energy markets as a Cartel threat for over 50 years. All things change... and to figure out how… 

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 22nd, 2026 – Gilts Wobble as Much as Starmer…

“All political lives end in failure…..”

The spike in Gilt Yields says it all. Its crisis – again – in Westminster as Starmer is mired in crisis with no obvious way out. Yet again we learn a political lesson – good  political leaders are a scarce commodity. The British electorate is losing faith in politics. What will global investors think?

Last Friday I was chatting to a risk officer at a US hedge fund, and he was wondering why the UK Bond market is not in more trouble? With the 10-year gilt spiking nearly 50 bp higher in just a few days - 5.14% this morning – what’s the definition of trouble?  

How much worse might it get as the government teeters on the edge of a precipice and steps forward….? Just last week I was writing how Labour could raise bond funding to finance defence and other critical crises points. Now there is talk of scaling back bond sales in the face of rising “political risk”.

Oh dear… things as so dire I might have to stop and have a nice strong cup of tea.

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 21st, 2026 – Robots, Competition and Total Addressable Markets.

“When Henry Ford made cheap, reliable cars, people said, ‘Nah, what’s wrong with a horse?”

Past performance is not a guide to the future. Tesla trades on a massive PE because folk believe Elon Musk will repeat his success in EVs across AI, Capacitance, Robotaxis, Autonomous Driving and Robotics. But hype, showmanship, undelivered promises and increasing competition are leaving his ventures in the literal rear-view mirror. 

I am indebted to my chum Mark Blyth, Professor of International Economics (and fellow Scot) at Brown University in the US for yet another pithy quote of the moment. We were discussing the current state of global play, supply chain risks, and Robotics yesterday and he made the following astute observation: “The US is doubling down on Coal. China has robots that run on batteries the US can’t make.” What more is there to say?  

OUCH….

Did you see the videos of Chinese Robots doing the Beijing half-marathon last weekend? (Here is a link.) Interesting. Run Robot, Run! They beat the humans hands and feet-pads down. The winning robot could have run a 1 hour 41 min Marathon. When it comes to Robotics, or other demonstrable tech like drone swarms, China is right out there, leading from the front. The signals that should be sending to the US and the West about tech development, and concerns about access to critical rare earths for the server motors, is pivotal – but we’re all too busy watching the absolute FUBAR/clusterf*ck that is the on/off/on again War against Iran.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 20th, 2026: Day Trading vs 60-year K-Waves

“He must know something, but don’t say nothing...”

The markets are on a tear convinced normalisation is around the next corner. Yet they ignore the reality the Iran war has done significant damage to the global outlook – even if Tehran and Washington kiss and make up tomorrow. I don’t claim to understand the madness of markets and their ability to keep fooling themselves, but I do follow economic history and how events change outcomes.

LINK TO PODCAST

Here we go... another exciting week in the global financial markets.... What have we got to look forward to? Let me try to explain it … Trump is going to declare a new war on a country he had obliterated 2 ago weeks because they are doing what the US is doing– blockading the Strait of Hormuz? Is that about it? Think so. The story of the age – the War in Iran…. How much will US cabinet secretaries make this week front running Trump’s Tweets? Want to know what’s really going on in the White House? Try this article from the WSJ “Behind Trump’s Bravado, He Grapples With His Own Fears.”

But, what everyone really, really wants to know is why are Markets so hot when the outlook looks so dire? Stocks have been on a 2-week role since Trump declared he’s won and cease-fired. Markets have a habit of looking unconcerned, happily buying the dip, convinced everything will be fine, right up to moment it isn’t.

Back in the 1970s stocks also anticipated early upside after the October 1973 shock – expecting prices and supply would swiftly normalise after the Yom Kippur War. They did not. The 40% stock tumble came months later and lasted a year as it became clear just how deep and wide the economic consequences of higher oil and societal damage went. Inflation soared, earnings collapsed, unemployment rose, and angry politics got very messy. Prices recovered back to pre-shock levels by 1976 but tumbled again following the botched Jimmy Carter raid on Tehran in 1979 and stayed depressed for the next few years.

Today stock-pickers will tell you “this time it’s different” – the most dangerous words in finance.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 17th, 2026: Sports Investments on a Wobble

“I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been.”

I have no interest in golf – it’s a good walk spoilt. But the rumoured collapse of the rogue LIV Golf Tour, and the disinterest fans are showing in attending Trump’s price-gouging Football World Cup, may be hints the sports investment bubble is about to burst. If it does, it could trigger a confidence wobble across private capital. It could also spell opportunity!

LINK TO PODCAST

One of the more esoteric markets I follow is Sports – watching how much teams sell for, the revenues top stars can command from monetising their brands, and how the cash flows (and property sales) from infrastructure investments like stadiums can be captured for funding. The value of teams and stars is immense. It’s a fascinating market and it’s no wonder there are a significant number of investors focused on sports investment opportunities.

The rationale is to capture the cash generative power and potential returns from monetising fandom, media and advertising rights. These are huge. Hedge funds like CVC and private capital have bought up teams and events across the sporting spectrum; including Football, Formula 1, Rugby and some of the more niche spectacles including my particular passion, Sailing.   

But suddenly the mood has started to turn…

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 16th, 2026 – Stock Markets and Common Sense.

“There is a knack to learning to fly. It lies in learning to throw yourself at the ground and miss.”

Stock markets are on a buzz. Central banks are expected to ease immediately. Joy unlimited. What war? Peace in the Middle East! Really? There are none so blind as salesmen wanting to talk a market higher.

Blain’s Market Mantra No 1 states; “The market has but one objective: to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of participants.”

Global stocks are at an all-time high, sniffing the nitrous oxide of an Iran peace deal around the corner. Donald Trump is tweeting about his great relationship with China. Tech stocks are off to the races. The American aircraft carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush, is taking the scenic route round Africa to the Gulf - the most powerful navy on the planet doesn’t fancy messing with the Houthis in the Red Sea.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge 15th April 2026 – UK Gilts.. Nothing To Worry About

“Spend, Spend, Spend”

Damn the torpedoes! Full steam ahead. The recent 10-year Gilt auction was a screaming success. There is plenty of demand at the right yield – 5% for 10 years! The cost of servicing debt is high, but to create growth the government needs to fix the economy by borrowing more. Global investors know that when assessing the UK’s yield premium. The UK would do better to borrow more rather than less! 

Time for a morning without being angry worrying about Iran, Trump and other mistakes.

Instead, let’s celebrate Gilts! Yep, I’m a great fan of the UK’s government debt market because it’s the best organised, structured and managed bond market on the planet. That’s not just national pride – I have zero concerns today the UK is about to default. (If the Greens or Reform look likely to take office I reserve the right to panic – which is why I watch UK politics so closely. I oft despair.)

Surprised at such positivity from a bond guy? You should not be. Yesterday the UK’s Debt Management Office launched a new 10-year Gilt which saw a nearly $150 bln order book for a £15 bln sale! Wowser! Who said no one wanted to buy Gilts? Well… er, buyers bought because at 4.9% it’s a historically very attractive yield.

You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

Blain’s Morning Porridge April 14th, 2026 – What Orban’s end means for Europe and Populism

“All political lives end in failure.”

Viktor Orban was a curious beast. A pragmatist and a populist who tried to play off Moscow, Washington and Brussels. Hungary is not yet solved, but it could be a transformational moment for Europe in terms of Populism and Unity.

THE BATTLE FOR HAMBLE
I am delighted to announce the launch of a new book – The Battle For Hamble.

It’s an in-depth look at the Hamble Gravel Quarry, an example of everything that is wrong with Broken Britain’s inept planning process, bureaucracy, and how greedy corporates arbitrage the system to their own ends. I’ve written about the quarry many times in the Morning Porridge.

This morning I thought I would share a sample from the book - this is an edited couple of pages from the chapter on The Planning Bureaucracy.

You can order the Book online: https://www.amazon.com/Battle-Hamble-Corporate-Illiteracy-Hampshire/dp/1036951251

Thanks

Bill Blain