Blain's Morning Porridge

Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd October 2026

“I am going to make you an offer you can’t refuse.”

Elon Musk is the richest man in history. With great wealth comes great power and influence. How wisely is Musk wielding that power? Switching off Starlink in Ukraine, threatening Europe with “devastating consequences” on satellite broadband, and whatever deals he doing on the regulation of his companies all beg closer examination. He raises questions about his accountability, and whose interests he serves.

Key Takeaways:

• Extreme wealth is no longer confined to domestic power – Elon Musk shows it can be wielded on the geopolitical stage. His control of Starlinkt, and dollar political funding power is not balanced by accountability.
• Starlink is now shown to be a Strategic Resource. Musk has demonstrated its power and that he controls it – and it’s in his and America’s interest to limit others from having it.
• Europe needs to build its technological independence from the USA. Digital and Space sovereignty is critical, especially as Trump, Musk, the Art of the Deal and America First collide in the new America’s stance to the world.
• Tesla and Space X will shortly merge, giving Musk an enormous payoff, further increasing his wealth without having to deliver on the targets once set him. It deserves closer oversight by government.
• The points discussed this morning are opinions. Feel free to believe whatever you still do about Musk.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge 21st October 2026

“Pride cometh before the fall…”

It really does feel the Atlantic Ocean got much, much wider. As Europe struggles with riots and populism, financiers in the USA dismiss Yoorp as irrelevant, and think their economy is doing just great, fuelled by the AI boom and rising earnings. What they miss is the vulnerability of the economy to a debt shock and rising Treasury refinancing risk.

Key Takeaways:

• America’s apparent economic strength masks considerable financial vulnerability – the USA’s high government debt, escalating and persistent deficits, and rising refinancing risk leave it exposed to excessive bond market risk in the event of any loss of confidence.
• The economies of Europe and the USA diverged after 2008 – creating an impression Europe will remain mired in ongoing sovereign debt crises and lethargic growth. That is reinforced by Europe’s capital markets being diverse and subscale, while the US has benefited from plentiful access to capital (much of it European!) though its highly efficient capital markets.
• Strip out the scale of US debt, then the scale and pace of the US and European economies are not that different. The size of the AI infrastructure boom dwarfs the risks from other parts of the US economy – making any AI downturn a highly significant risk.
• Treasury Refinancing risk is the biggest risk to the USA – if inflation remains high and yields continue to rise, the scale of quarterly refinancings to simply stand still will rise. Eventually… something breaks.
• With 25% of the Treasury market held overseas, the USA’s political stability, and competency to address crisis, are core issues for foreign buyers. If post mid-term gridlock and lawfare erupts after the Midterms it will change sentiment – particularly where the USA is no longer seen as aligned with the core values of Europe.
• The potential for political disruption, an equity correction, and rising treasury yields to create an “imperfect storm” around the US economy for the remainder of Trump’s term is high.

The US Midterms are 2 weeks away. It feels we really have gone deep down the rabbit hole.

On one hand, the US Treasury market isn’t worried – the 10-year T-Bond yield has fallen from 5.31% to 5.125%, despite awful CPI and PPI inflation data last week. The improvement is because the Fed appears to be paying attention to Trump and the impact on consumers of higher rates – hinting at a slower path of rate rises… Fair enough… Investors would be wise to remember that Central Banks may guide interest rate expectations, but it is market sentiment that ultimately set bond yields….

On the other hand, everyone remains shocked by Trump’s support for Russia and betrayal of Ukraine, but who is actually making decisions in Washington?

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th October 2026

“Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men.”

The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board. 

Key Takeaways:

• A European Sovereign Bond Crisis is a rising risk as riots hit market confidence and cause rates to rise and growth to stall.
• Genuine social grievances leave Europe vulnerable to Russian manipulation and misdirection – seeking to undermine European unity, diminish support for Ukraine and rearmament, and further split NATO.
• Russia is indifferent exploing Hard Right and Hard Left grievances to achieve its destabilisation goals. Immigration or Palestine are divisive topics which ferment dispute and conflict.
• How European Governments counter the deliberate destabilisation is critical, and given the vulnerabilities of Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK to populist parties, will be difficult.
• If a bond market crisis emerges, the ECB could face distracted European politics and could struggle to contain a chaotic bond market where yields rise and confidence breaks down.
• The social cohesion of Europe is under threat – and that’s the economic asset that underlies the Euro and the European polity. A crisis will impact European markets, growth, inflation and further fuel political instability.

Anyone spotting bond yields across Europe spiked higher yesterday in the wake of the French riots gets a No Sh*t Sherlock award. There are ongoing riots in Albania, unrest and looting in Italy, and it looks like Spain is set for violent protest ahead of next month’s snap elections… The big question in London: how soon before copy-cat riots hit the streets of Blighty?

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Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th October 2026

“A walk in the woods will change the way you respond to the everyday enshitification of everything”

Markets have a habit of watching the wrong things – which why they are repeatedly shocked by No-See-Ums. Perhaps, the real issue isn’t how economies miss growth or inflation targets, but how miserable or unhappy the electorate becomes? Traditional politics are failing in the democratic nations, while populism is set to create wider instabilities. Maybe it’s time to go “forest bathing” in the autumnal glory and focus on resiliency and satisfaction?

Key Takeaways:

• The real economic crisis is being felt at household level. Markets focus on inflation, rates and outlook in terms of prices, but rising costs and diminished opportunities explain crashing consumer confidence.
• The political unrest – so visible in France and India – highlight the growing sense of public disillusionment with political failure and corrupt bureaucracy.
• Populism offers easy answers, but, as Trump is demonstrating, ineffective solutions. The repair of failing state infrastructure and services is long-term while blocked opportunities for all workers (from young to mature) is breeding resentment.
• Political incompetence will reduce economic strength – while resilient and adaptable nations will exhibit a greater ability to absorb shocks, innovate and adapt themselves out of crisis.
• The USA’s loss of global standing illustrates incompetency, while Ukraine is example of resiliency. The War in Iran demonstrates how Iran is winning because the USA has failed to achieve its objectives, while Ukraine demonstrates how it is winning by frustrating Russia’s objectives.
• Social cohesion is a factor in the strength of nations. Political competency and household stability underpin successful economies – and are more important long-term than quarterly earnings or month-to-month growth.

This is going to be another… interesting week. Breathe deep. Earnings reports, European inflation and a host of other data lie ahead, but who knows what else is about leap out and mug us all?

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Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 16th, 2026

“Markets are not smart or intelligent, but they are very efficient at converging on the wrong conclusions.”

It’s been a bad week in the AI markets. Suddenly folk are waking up to the growing gap between inflated expectations and disappointing revenues, and the risks which include competition. It’s a pattern that reoccurs repeatedly in markets. The name to watch will be CoreWeave – illustrating what can go wrong when blithe assumptions about fantabulous upside ignore the rules of financial commonsense. A default or troubling rescue is on the cards.

 Key Takeaways

• AI is a key technology of the future, but the path to riches seldom runs smooth. The AI Investment Bubble is running well ahead of commercial adoption as businesses figure out how best to harness its power effectively and economically.
• CoreWeave is the potential catalyst for an AI reset. It is the canary-in-the-coal mine showing how revenue growth is failing to cover rising debt costs.
• Strong demand for AI Services in a competitive and price-inelastic market (remember the Chinese do AI too!), does not guarantee success when capex, opex and debt costs are rising – Accounting 101.
• Nvidia’s infamous circularity financing of chip sales to datacentres could magnify losses. Nvidia is down nearkly $300 bln this week! It highlights the risks of being an investor in what you supply – making it a leverage play on GPU demand (which is a function of price and competition)!
• A collapse in Chips could trigger a reset across the private capital markets based on the number of deals secured on chips, compute and infrastructure, now on the books of captive insurance firms.

Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 15th, 2026

“Be certain that those who will betray you once will betray you again.”

Ukraine was stabbed in the back yesterday. Its defenders found their access to Starshield and Intel on incoming missile strikes suddenly blocked. Trump is saying nothing – but it's increasingly clear the orders came from POTUS. Trump is furious that Zelensky refuses to surrender Ukraine to his good chum Putin. It represents a new nadir of the Trump presidency.

Key Takeaways:

• Trust in America has taken a global battering after Trump used his Kill-Switch to leave Ukraine defenceless. The alleged withdrawal of Intel and Starlink support is seen as a fundamental breach of trust by NATO allies.
• It will have massive implications on future working relationships and warfighting coordination within NATO functions – European nations will never be entirely certain the US will honour its commitments.
• Trump thought he would get away with sacrificing Ukraine for a short-term bolster to MAGA’s electoral prospects in the Midterms – pretending the deal with Russia would bring down diesel prices. (It will benefit his family through the deal Jared Kushner has struck to buy Lukoil!)
• Instead, Trump has further unravelled the USA’s geopolitical credibility. It will have market consequences as demand for US weapons, financial services, and confidence in the dollar and Treasury market slumps as Europe faces up to America as “unreliable.”
• Trump appears to have taken the decisions to deal with Russia, and to deny Ukraine intel and Starshield, without reference to his cabinet or military advisors – creating speculation he is either unfit for office, or even a Russian asset.
• The coming midterms may now become a vote on Trump’s leadership and judgement. American’s can decide if what is good for Trump is good for them, or what is good for freedom and democracy is better for America in the long run.

I don’t think I have ever been this angry writing a Morning Porridge. 

The honourable American president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was consumed with fury when he told Congress that Dec 7th, 1941, was “a day that will live in infamy” after the Japanese sneak attack on Pearl Harbour which killed 2403 Americans – including 68 civilians.

We don’t know how many Ukrainian civilians and troops died in the last two days on the back of President Trump demonstrating America’s kill-switch.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 14th, 2026

“All the world’s a stage – and the French like to think they are at the centre of it.”

French political instability and it’s looming fiscal crisis will distract and delay the European project of a shift towards “strategic unity” in the face of a) the immediate security threats from Russia, and b) the long-term geopolitical shift towards China at the end of the Transatlantic American age. How Europe responds to the growing French threat could determine its economic outlook for decades.

Key takeaways:

• Europe must address its future and shift as the USA is exposed as an unreliable partner. It has to swiftly establish “collective independence” across defence, energy, trade and supply chains.
• The ECB and EU will face substantial problems dealing with the likely French bond crisis – constrained by the French Government’s inability to agree on credible, deliverable fiscal measures, and the limited scale of stability mechanisms to address bond contagion.
• The French crisis shows how limited the concept of European unity is – debates over conditions and burden sharing will dominate in coming months, rather than facing up to strategic imperatives.
• The risk that Europe lapses into future economic irrelevancy is rising. The threat posed by European right-wing populist political parties, (often with obscure funding that might be Moscow-tainted), and their Anti-EU rhetoric highlights the risks Europe will fracture rather than become a stronger economic polity.
• The response of EU institutions to the rising crisis will be critical if Europe is to move forward.

I’ll probably pop into one of my favourite London Bookshops (Daunts or Foyles) later this morning to pick up a copy of Unreliable Boyfriend – the new book by Canada’s former deputy president, Chrystia Freeland, about coping with the new USA. I am hoping it will give me some insights on how Europe might evolve to meet the end of the Transatlantic Era, and face up to the challenges of a new Global Order where the newly emerged nations of Asia, Africa and South America won’t be minded paying much attention to the decaying Old World of Yoorp…

Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 13th, 2026

“It is not the man who has too little, but the man who craves more, that is poor.”

Should Donald Trump have won the Nobel Prize in Economics? His groundbreaking work on instability and unpredictability, and how naked greed and connections can drive economic growth and prosperity exposes the fundamental weakness of liberal, woke societies. Should economies be driven by innovation and productivity, or by political connections and favour? 

Key takeaways:

• Should Donald J Trump have won the Nobel Prize in Economics?
• Confident stable societies are a laudable goal – for Liberals!
• Trumponomics provides proofs that liberal, woke policies stifle growth, wealth creation and prosperity – for the entrepreneurs who drive the evolution of society. Greed and the pursuit of personal wealth and power is a far more important driver of power and prosperity – and thus national success.
• Notions about national prosperity should not be subordinated to private enrichment. Tax benefits, political connections, legal immunities and pardons benefit wealth creators, while “trickle-down” promises can reassure electorates and keep them in check.
• Under Trumponomics foreign policy is transactional. Deals are struck in pursuit of votes and business opportunities – conflicts between public and private motivations are subordinated.
• The Russian Diesel Deal is commercial genius. Trump wins votes. In return for easing sanctions, American entrepreneurs gain control of Russian oil to sell to Europe, and the economic reconstruction of Ukraine is handed to US firms. Ukraine? Sorry… who?
• The bounds of Trumponomics are untested. The latest efforts to investigate a US congresswoman for immigration fraud highlight the growing political power of an authoritarian state.

Big news yesterday was Donald J Trump did not win the Nobel Prize for Economics either.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 12th, 2026

“Be careful if America is your enemy. Be terrified if they are your friend.”

Consequences spread like ripples on a pond. Trump lobbed the bloody great rock of the Iran War into the global economy earlier this year. Now the risks he raised are converging. Inflation, Rates, Trade, Geopolitics and Conflict were thrown into stark relief over the weekend as Trump further roiled markets, and climate risks will be extra spice. How this ends is unclear… 

Key takeaways:

• The consequences of the Iran war are escalating in geopolitics, rising conflict risk, inflation and trade, all putting markets under potential pressure.
• The Super El-Nino threatens a further inflationary spike and could deepen trade instabilities.
• Trump’s comments and US policy have further undermined the confidence and stability of the Western Alliance.
• A Democrat victory in next month’s US Midterms may not solve anything except to ratchet up US political uncertainty.
• Meanwhile, the left-wing in France is proposing to use “Zonk Theory” to manage down France’s unsustainable debt burden. What would work in the UK won’t work in Europe.

This morning’s photo is a container ship She-Who-Is-Mrs Blain snapped while we were sailing over the weekend. It was headed into Southampton, one of the UK’s largest ports. It’s practically empty. There are fewer containers on it than I’ve ever seen in 25 years sailing in the Solent. It may well be it’s come empty from Rotterdam to fill up – but given the state of UK exports… that’s unlikely. Global Trade has shifted. The whole point of container shipping is to stack ‘em high to keep costs down. Since the Iran War kicked off the cost of sending a container from China to Europe has tripled. That is a trade shock the world has not yet fully felt. Throw in shipping bottlenecks (and the possibility the Panama Canal will restrict passage because of drought) … and the outlook is scary.

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Blain’s Morning Porridge October 9th, 2026

“Taxation is the price we pay to remain civilised.”

The US economy looks rosy – if you are looking at the fantabulous promises of the Stock Market. The reality is very different. The scale of the $40 trillion National Debt is a problem that will not just go away and puts substantial limits on how the US can respond to any new economic or conflict crisis without risking massive inflation. Underlying the scale of the debt is not just poor spending decisions, but tax cuts that have accelerated the debt crisis.

Key Takeaways:

• The pace of the rising US National Debt has massively outpaced the growth of the economy and tax revenues.
• Tax receipts, and how tax cuts have effectively increased the scale of the US national debt, are just as important as spending to the debt quantum as Government Spending.
• Trump’s two rounds of tax cuts in 2017 and 2025 have had major impacts on the outstanding debt but show limited effects in terms of triggering economic growth.
• Tax cuts have been Reverse Robin Hoods, favouring the wealthy over the poor – a contradiction to Trump’s promise to support those left behind by globalisation, foreign competition and industrial decline.
• Now the USA finds itself with an unsustainable debt pile which becomes more expensive as self-inflicted inflation rises and leaves it less able to respond to economic and conflict crises as global Treasury buyers look elsewhere.
• Inflating away the scale of the debt, as Trump has proposed, would be a disaster for the economy and likely trigger higher rates and destructive hyper-stagflation.

The front pages say it all this morning.

Open AI revenues disappointed to the tune of $20 bln, while Masayoshi Son of Softbank is asking Gulf investors for a further $100 bln to fund his AI investment thesis… (He’s already backed OpenAI to the tune of $65 bln.) Masayoshi’s brilliant, cunning plan is to buy firms and use AI to make them more profitable – which is exactly what the commercial world is struggling to do. Business has embraced AI – it’s made work better, easier, but it’s not entirely clear how it changes profitable firms into extremely profitable firms – especially in highly competitive markets where every firm is doing it. In other words, AI is just like a tax or any other fixed cost. You have to pay it to remain in the game!

Taxes are the main theme of the Porridge this morning.

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