Blain’s Morning Porridge Feb 23rd, 2026 – Private Credit and Treasury Wobbles... Relax….

“Apart from that Mrs Lincoln, did you enjoy the show?”

Sometimes you just have to laugh. The Tariff Judgement against Trump raises elevated Chaotic Tantrum risks in Treasuries, while markets fear what wobbles in private credit might conceal. Everything in markets are connected – when something cracks in credit, someone somewhere else will start screaming!

An interesting week’s play in prospect for global markets this Monday morning. There was a distinct judder moment on Friday after the US Supreme Court declared Trump’s emergency tariffs were unconstitutional. He didn’t react well. The markets shrugged and wondered… Where do we go from here?

I suspect the driving theme for the week with be elevated fears on bonds and credit markets, and how swiftly risks and concerns are jumping the gap to cross-contaminate between bond and equity markets.

• How will markets react to Trump’s tariff SNAFU? Weren’t tariffs going to pay off the USA’s $38 trillion debt? (No – they were not!)
• How will markets react to the wobble-signs from the private credit markets as Blue Owl acts to control retail redemptions on certain funds – while sharks, in the guise of SABA (Boas Weinstein) get ready to pounce with a 35% discount offer to NAV. Could private credit trigger a credit/liquidity crunch?
• The fact lending to software companies (hammered by AI threats) is at the core of the Blue Owl lending concerns highlights the circularity of markets and that credit lending is as much about risk as equities!
• How will these forces inter-relate with all market noise around geopolitics, AI, liquidity, politics, Iran and the growing sense of instability that seems to pervade everything? Cheer up – as I’ll scribble at the end of this Porridge, Life is Still Good.

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