Demographic Doom Podcast

COVID-19 disproportionately threatens the old while sparing the young, and this may spark a new conflict between the generations. Baby Boomers have often been accused of robbing future generations by monopolizing wealth and charging up the national debt. Now younger generations have a chance to get even. Because their risk from the virus is low, young people have little incentive to change their behavior. Many may ignore quarantines and recommended hygiene, which ultimately puts their elders at greater risk. There is no malice involved. Young people are simply obeying their own self-interest, just as the Boomers did. ***** UPDATE 3 MAY 2020: I was wrong! It isn't young people who are protesting the lockdowns but the same older voters who support Donald Trump. See video description for my confession. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_millboom [ep 32, 11 March 2020]

The week of February 24-28, 2020 saw the worst stock market drop since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. Glenn Campbell congratulates himself on his accurate prediction of it in his episode two weeks earlier. This week, he says, marks the beginning of a massive economic collapse he has been predicting for over a year. Looking ahead, he sees only bad things happening as the coronavirus spreads around the world and economies react. While his crystal ball is foggy in the long term, he offers a new prediction for the medium term: Unemployment in the United States will double by the end of June, and things can only get worse from there. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_crash [ep 31, 1 Mar 2020]

As of February 23, 2020, the coronavirus had invaded all of China and was gaining a foothold in several other countries, including Italy, South Korea and Iran. Glenn Campbell tries to comprehend the vast financial impacts of the pandemic—and finds that he can't. His position is like someone from 1939 trying to look ahead to the coming World War and trying to predict how it will work out. The best he can do is describe some of the medical and economic factors that will make this a truly horrible event. As of the date of this recording, stock market investors are in denial, pushing indexes to new highs. This cannot last. Before the virus, the economy was already in an "Everything Bubble" and a worldwide pandemic is more than enough to pop it. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_collapse [ep 30, 23 Feb 2020]

Glenn Campbell describes his own self-styled philosophy called "Triagism" based on medical triage as might be practiced in a big-city Emergency Room. Recorded on 21 February 2020 as coronavirus (Covid-19) spreads around the world, Triagism is highly relevant to the government response to this disease. If there are only 10 beds available in a hospital and 1000 sick patients show up outside its doors, how do the staff decide which patients to take in? In traditional triage, the aim is to save as many lives as possible by carefully selecting the patients served. Mildly sick patients may be declined because they are likely to live without intervention, while severely ill patients may also be refused because they are beyond help. Triage tends to favor the moderately ill patients who can most benefit from treatment. While intended for medical management, the same triage principles can be applied to all kinds of human decisions. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes, comments & corrections on the video version at j.mp/dd_triagism [ep 29. 21 Feb 2020]

By February 10, 2020, the coronavirus outbreak has spread across China despite draconian efforts by the Chinese government to contain it. As of now, the virus doesn't seem to have gained a foothold in overseas countries like the USA, but experts seem to concur that it will become endemic, affecting every part of the globe. At this pivotal point in history, Glenn Campbell summarizes what he understands about the virus and makes some predictions about the social and economic effects. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_corona [ep 28. 10 Feb 2020]

As a viral epidemic takes hold in China, Glenn Campbell predicts it will be the "black swan" that pushes the world economy into severe recession. Podcast recorded on Feb. 3, 2020, when only 17,000 cases were confirmed and 360 official deaths. The news will certainly change over the coming weeks, but no matter what happens, the economic costs will be devastating. The real damage is loss of confidence. In previous podcasts, Glenn talked about the worldwide debt crisis and the coming major recession. The economic collapse only needs a trigger, and the coronavirus may be it. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_virus [ep 27. 3 Feb 2020]

Governments around the world, desperate to raise their birth rates, are offering incentives to parents to make more babies. These can range for one-time cash bonuses to complex parental support systems like subsidized childcare. None of these systems seem to be working. For example, Sweden, which is doing everything right to encourage childbirth, has a fertility rate similar to the USA, which is doing little to support its parents. The core problem with any incentive program is that nothing a government can offer comes anywhere close to the true costs of parenthood. Such incentives may even have the perverse effect of encouraging the wrong kind of people to have children. — Also see DemographicDoom.com — Instagram & Twitter: @DemographicDoom — See episode notes and comments on the video version at j.mp/dd_incentives [ep 26 - 27 Jan 2020]

"Fictitious wealth" is assets that people think they have that cannot be realized in the long run. You can own stocks, bonds, real estate even cash in a mattress, but none of it has a secure value in the future. All assets are vulnerable to crash, and government actions over the past decade have assured that nearly all of them will. During the Global Financial Crisis, big governments and central banks worked together to rescue the economy, but all they really did is kick the can down the road. Particularly demaging are the runaway deficits of the U.S. government and the low interest rates of the Federal Reserve. Both have given rise to an "everything bubble" that is bound to pop in the 2020s. Glenn Campbell explains the mechanisms involved and how there is little hope for a non-catastrophic resolution. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_fiction [ep 25 - 21 Jan 2020]

In choosing to have a child, you must accept that you may be imposing pain upon them. For example, they may experience a devastating disease or disability which would have never happen had you not brought them into the world. Life is, by its nature, traumatic, and you can justify imposing this trauma on someone else only if you believe the value of sustaining your culture outweighs the potential risks. Roughly one in ten births is likely to become "problematic" in one way or another, but you do it for the nine successes. In this episode, Glenn Campbell explores several aspects of childhood trauma, including a form that every child must face: "real-life adjustment trauma." Parents create a protected environment for their children which is never easy to escape from. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_trauma [ep 24]

Education in America is in crisis. At the upper end, college graduates are saddled with huge student debt. At the lower end, public education is perpetually underfunded. Presidential candidates promise to fix public education and forgive student debt, but how much can the government afford? Since he is not running for public office, Glenn Campbell can offer a frank analysis: Physical universities are destined for collapse, while the best approach to primary education may be returning to the one-room schoolhouse of the past. — Also see DemographicDoom.com + Instagram + Twitter. Comment on video at j.mp/dd_education