The Denver MLS trends data for September 2020 is out. Comparing year over year (September 2019 to September 2020) is better than comparing the previous month, because we have defined seasonality trends.
Denver MLS Market Stats
Listing Count (inventory)
Down 43% from this time last yearDown 4% from last monthNormally, we’d expect to see an increase in inventory in the fall, after the busy summerNew Listings in September
Good performance, up 7% from Sept ‘19Not enough to keep pace with red hot demandDoes seem to suggest that some sellers that were reluctant to list, perhaps due to COVID, are now coming to marketNumber of new listings in Sept ’20 was down a little from Aug ’20, but that would be normal seasonalitySTRONG showing traffic this year vs. last year in both Denver and Colorado SpringsVery strong, +27% from last yearDown -10% from Aug ’20 which is about normal seasonalityWe can anticipate strong closing volume in October, and we’re set up well for November, too+17% from this time last yearIt’s strong in most major US metros, but we’re doing even better than that lofty average-11% from Aug ’20, about normal seasonality+12% from last year, about the same as last monthThis is a distortion of mix which we have discussed a lot – we are not selling many small, cheap homes, but we are selling a lot of big, pricy housesDon’t be surprised if we see price declines in spring ’21 when this reversesDown about 30% from last yearNormally we’d see a slow down for a presidential election, but there sure is not evidence of that this time around.
Source: The above executive summary is from Lon Welsh of Your Castle Real Estate.
Denver Housing Trends September 2020
Very strong traffic!
Rezoning to Allow ADUs in Certain Denver Neighborhoods
A recent article indicates that council members are starting to push for rezoning individual neighborhoods that want Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) starting with Chaffee Park. Sloan’s Lake and East Colfax are next on the list.
In summary, it does not seem they will rezone the entire city for ADUs. However, any individual can petition for rezoning of their lot if they want an ADU for a $1000 fee and additional costs that the city may charge. Most of these petitions are being approved.
Update on Forbearance and Foreclosures
Below is a chart from the Wall Street Journal this morning. Of all of the people that took a forbearance, 4% have had their payment holiday expire and could not re-start payments and are now actively delinquent.
This supports our hypothesis that this would not lead to a material number of short sales and foreclosures. At least in Colorado, most of the people in that 4% bucket will have a lot of equity and should be able to sell their home without distress.
This blog post is a summary. For all the details, listen to the podcast or watch the video!
YouTube Video: Denver Real Estate Trends – September 2020
https://youtu.be/c8O7N6hfRb8