Deterrence Down Under

In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, defense analyst Derek Grossman joins the discussion with Carl to unpack how countries across the Indo‑Pacific view—and respond to—China’s growing influence. As Grossman notes, the Indo‑Pacific is far from monolithic, with regional actors pursuing distinct strategies shaped by history, geography, and national interest.

The conversation examines Australia’s evolving defense posture, the implications of AUKUS, and the role of U.S. alliances in shaping regional security. It also explores China’s expanding diplomatic footprint, including the Belt and Road Initiative, alongside concerns over coercion, influence, and strategic signaling. From ASEAN’s careful balancing to Vietnam’s nuanced approach, this episode highlights why calibrated engagement and credible deterrence remain essential in managing great‑power competition.

This discussion offers valuable insight into the complexity of Indo‑Pacific security dynamics—and why understanding regional perspectives is critical to shaping effective strategy.

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In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Christine and Carl examine the accelerating pace of China’s military modernization and what it means for Australia, regional allies, and stability in the Indo‑Pacific. The discussion explores Beijing’s strategic objectives—particularly its anti‑access/area denial (A2AD) approach—and how these capabilities shape deterrence dynamics surrounding Taiwan and U.S. and allied forces operating in the region.

The conversation also highlights Australia’s evolving defense posture, including industrial cooperation with partners such as Germany, the growing importance of alliances, and the challenges posed by operating exquisite but finite military systems across vast distances. Drawing lessons from recent conflicts, the panel assesses how multi‑domain precision warfare, forward basing vulnerabilities, and alliance cohesion factor into deterring conflict in an increasingly contested strategic environment.

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China’s rapid nuclear expansion is reshaping global deterrence—and it’s happening faster than many realize. In this episode, Christine and Carl break down China’s evolving nuclear strategy, from new missile systems and submarine-launched capabilities to alarming tests near Lop Nur. They explore what a growing arsenal—potentially reaching the thousands by the 2030s—means for strategic stability, first‑strike dynamics, and regional security in Australia and the Indo‑Pacific. Essential listening for anyone concerned about the future of nuclear deterrence and global security.

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In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl speaks with Dr. Fei‑Ling Wang about China’s worldview, the Chinese Communist Party’s vision for a new global order, and the strategic implications of China’s military and technological rise. The conversation explores why Taiwan is central to CCP legitimacy, how China seeks influence through both power and institutions, and why long‑term coordination among Western allies is essential to counter Beijing’s ambitions.

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In this episode of Deterrence Down Under, Carl and Christina are joined by renowned counterintelligence expert Nick Eftimiades for a deep dive into the evolving landscape of Chinese espionage. Drawing on decades of research and firsthand experience, the conversation unpacks how China’s intelligence system operates as a whole‑of‑society enterprise—one that incentivizes espionage behavior across state, economic, and social domains.

The discussion explores the organizational structure of Chinese intelligence, the expanding use of technology and social media, and the growing threat of economic and political interference. With a focus on Australia and other middle powers, the episode examines how foreign interference laws are being tested by these evolving tactics and why education, international cooperation, and economic diversification are critical countermeasures.

This timely conversation underscores the urgent need for collaboration among like‑minded nations to build a credible deterrence framework capable of responding to China’s covert influence operations and safeguarding national security.

Nicholas Eftimiades retired in 2017 after a 34‑year career with the U.S. Department of Defense, serving with the CIA, as a Special Agent in the State Department’s Bureau of Diplomatic Security, and as a Senior Intelligence Officer at the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). His senior DIA roles included Chief of Counterterrorism Operations and leadership of the Transnational Issues, Futures, and Space Divisions. He is a recipient of the National Intelligence Council Achievement Award and the DIA Director’s Intelligence Award.

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Christine and Carl unpack the newest U.S. National Security Strategy and examine what it means for both the United States and Australia. They explore recent trends in defense spending by the U.S. and its allies, analyze how alliance structures shape security in the Indo‑Pacific, and note the absence of AUKUS in the strategy.

The discussion concludes with a candid look at preparedness, public perception of defense priorities, and why sustained investment and ongoing dialogue are essential for long-term security in the Indo‑Pacific region.

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In this compelling episode of Deterrence Down Under, host Carl Rhodes sits down with Lachlan Colquhoun—one of Australia’s leading voices in counterterrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE). They unpack how Australia confronts today’s complex security landscape through a coordinated, whole‑of‑government approach.

Colquhoun offers a candid look at the evolving nature of violent extremism, the challenges of defining emerging threats, and what recent incidents—such as the Bondi Beach attack—reveal about shifts in motivation and behavior.

He also explores how online technologies accelerate radicalization and why community engagement remains essential to prevention. Clear-eyed, timely, and deeply informative, this episode sheds light on the strategies and partnerships that form the backbone of Australia’s national resilience.

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In this compelling episode of "Deterrence Down Under," hosts Carl and Christine are joined by Air Vice Marshal John Blackburn to explore Australia's resilience in the face of strategic challenges. From the intricacies of national security to the vulnerabilities in infrastructure and supply chains, Blackburn shares insights from his extensive experience in defense and strategic planning. The discussion delves into the need for a shared national narrative, the impact of political systems on resilience, and practical steps towards a more secure future. Tune in to understand why resilience is not just a buzzword but a critical necessity for Australia's survival.

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In this conversation, Carl and Christine welcome Edward Geist, of RAND Corporation, to explore the concept of civil defense during the Cold War, its evolution, and its implications for modern deterrence strategies. They discuss the goals of civil defense in the US and Soviet Union, differences in their approaches, and lessons that can be applied to contemporary defense planning. The conversation highlights the complexities of preparing for nuclear conflict and the challenges of balancing civil defense with other military priorities.

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This episode explores Australia’s most challenging strategic environment since World War II, drawing lessons from history to understand today’s security landscape. Carl and Christine highlight the gap in official crisis preparedness guidance and examine how personal strategies often diverge from government recommendations. With a sense of urgency, they discuss resourcefulness, critical thinking, and the importance of being ready for unexpected events. Listeners will gain insights into why preparedness matters, how historical parallels shape current decisions, and why individual judgment plays a key role in times of uncertainty.

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