DH Unplugged

By Andrew Horowitz and JC DvorakBusiness News Investing Business News Careers

DH Unplugged episodes

August 12 DHUnplugged #813: Fear and Greed
NEW HIGHS!!! Shaking off the bad stuff.
In the midst of earnings season – peak was last week.
Let’s Look at the Fear and Greed Index.
Unemployment numbers are out (Something for everyone)

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
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Warm-Up
- Let's Look at the Fear and Greed Index
- Unemployment numbers are out (Something for everyone)
- CPI Data out tomorrow then PPI Thursday
Markets
- NEW HIGHS!!! Shaking off the bad stuff
- In the midst of earnings season - peak was last week
- OIL - Rebounding on NO DEAL (what a surprise)
NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up - Follow Up (8-8-2026)
Starting off with Fear and Greed
- Check this out: FEAR AND GREED INDICATOR
CPI Thoughts
- July CPI is expected to ease to 3.4% from a year earlier, with core inflation forecast near 2.5%.
- The probability of a September Fed rate increase has moved back toward 48% as oil rebounded and several policymakers continued to emphasize inflation risks.
- A soft reading would support bonds, technology and precious metals. A hot reading would revive stagflation concerns by combining weaker hiring with renewed price pressure.
Tariffs Return Under New Authority
- New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners.
- The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case.
- Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico.
- New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far.
- 25 States are suing on this ....
Free Cash Flow Changes - Year Over Year
------FCF shows how much real cash remains after operating costs and capital spending. Analysts use it to judge earnings quality and a company’s ability to fund buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or growth.
- Apple: up about $7.5 billion, or 31%.
- Microsoft: down about $6.0 billion, or 23%.
- Meta: down about $7.8 billion, or 91%.
- Amazon: deteriorated about $25.8 billion, from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion.
- Alphabet: down $11.2 billion, swinging from positive $5.3 billion to negative $5.9 billion.
- Tesla: down $1.24 billion, swinging from positive $146 million to negative $1.09 billion.
- Intel: adjusted free cash flow worsened by $7.37 billion, from negative $1.05 billion to negative $8.42 billion.
- Nvidia: up $22.4 billion, or 86%, from $26.1 billion to $48.6 billion.
Jobs Report - Labor Market Cracks
- July payrolls fell 23,000 versus expectations for about 80,000 gains.
- May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000 jobs.
- Unemployment fell to 4.1%, but labor-force participation dropped to 61.4%.
- Weak report pushed yields and the dollar lower.
China Trade - Export Machine Keeps Running
- July exports jumped 23.9% year over year; imports rose 27.5%.
- China posted another huge $112.5 billion trade surplus.
- Semiconductor and high-tech exports were major growth drivers.
SoftBank - Intel Saves the Quarter
- SoftBank posted about $2.2 billion in quarterly profit, well above expectations.
- A large gain on its Intel investment was a major driver.
- ByteDance also added investment gains.
- SoftBank continues aggressively funding AI and OpenAI-related investments. (Masayoshi Son will never stop pumping)

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1 hr 5 min
August 05 DHUnplugged #812: Rollercoaster Ride
– OOFAH – Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves.
– Hackathon disguised.
– KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios.
– Oil moved up on War – now no War again…
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm-Up
- Some bad days and some good days
- AH is walking - and driving
- We have to talk about Free Cash Flow changes
NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM)
- Location to be determined
- SIGN UP HERE
Meet-Up Invite
Markets
- OOFAH - Microsoft, Apple and Amazon earnings and stock moves.
- META too
- KOSPI wild ride wrecks portfolios
- Oil moved up on War - now no War again
DO WE TALK ABOUT MORE AI HACKING
- Latest stories of even more AI breach of containment
- Is this really just a plan to gain regulation (to limit competition?)
GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE
- Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video.
- The feature adds another way to verify identity.
- It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes.
- The tradeoff is greater use of facial data.
- Privacy, storage and security questions will follow.
SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN
- Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell.
- The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation.
- It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices.
- SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites.
- The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in.
--- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull
CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX
- Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history.
- Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book.
- Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth.
- The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future.
TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION
- TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona.
- Second-quarter profit surged 77%.
- AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production.
- It also adds labor, construction and execution risk.
- The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race.
--- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow
BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK
- The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025. (4.7%)
- Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market.
- Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets.
- Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook.
- 30-year is zooming higher and higher
CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods.
- The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies.
- The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs.
- Canada could respond with tariffs of its own.
- The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade.
WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE
- Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S.
- He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs.
- The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy.
- Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost.
- Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff.
MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET
- Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers.
- Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions.
- The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms.
- High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower.
- Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes
UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER
- UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook.
--- Co-Pick for JCD and AH
- Cost controls helped drive the improvement.
DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING
- Delta expects higher airfares to continue.
- Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal.
- Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs.
- Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets.
- Capacity growth remains the key variable.
--- Say it enough and its true?
THE GREAT EGG RECALL
- Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella.
- The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns.
--- Now what will be the political angle?
- Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices.
HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY
-Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue
- Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments.
- Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products.
- South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply.
-- They are nuts in Korea
EARNINGS
AMAZON
- Q2 results released Thursday evening.
- AWS revenue was $42.2 billion, up 37% year over year.
- The stock gained about 15% Friday.
- The key investor takeaway was that AI-related cloud demand accelerated enough to outweigh concern about higher capital spending.
- Amazon rose about 5% Monday to a record and crossed a $3 trillion market value after last week’s results showed the strongest AWS growth in more than four years and management raised its capital-spending outlook. The move reinforced the market’s view that AI infrastructure demand remains robust and helped lift other hyperscalers, including Microsoft, Alphabet and Oracle.
Apple
- Fiscal Q3 revenue was $109.4 billion and EPS was $2.02.
- iPhone revenue reached $54.25 billion. S
- September-quarter revenue growth guidance of 9%–11% disappointed.
- Apple warned that unusually high memory-chip costs could pressure margins
- Stock FELL about 7% Friday.
Microsoft
- Fiscal Q4 revenue was $90.0 billion and adjusted EPS was $4.74.
- Azure growth was 43%
- Microsoft Cloud revenue was $59.3 billion,
- Fiscal Q1 revenue guidance was approximately $90.4 billion.
- Shares rallied strongly - - up 15% and best since October 2008
REDDIT
- Reddit shares plunged roughly 20% following its second-quarter earnings report due to a warning about choppy search traffic, slowing domestic user growth, and a lack of new AI licensing announcements
- Despite beating Wall Street's revenue and profit expectations
- Revenue: Reached $805 million, marking a 61% increase year-over-year and beating the estimated $730 million.
- Earnings: Reported net income of $253 million, or $1.25 per share, easily topping the forecasted 95 cents per share.
- Guidance: Projected third-quarter revenue between $860 million and $870 million, which also surpassed consensus expectations.
Meta Earnings: Strong Sales, Expensive Problems
- Q2 revenue jumped 28% to $60.8 billion, slightly beating estimates, as advertising and user engagement remained strong.
- Earnings were only $6.18 per share versus roughly $7.19 expected, hurt by $2.4 billion in legal costs and $1.18 billion in severance charges.
- Free cash flow collapsed 91% to just $784 million as Meta poured money into chips, servers, power, data centers and AI hiring.
- Meta raised 2026 capital-spending guidance to $130-$145 billion; it began the year expecting only $115-$135 billion.
- Reality Labs lost another $4.6 billion, while management gave investors limited detail on when its AI and metaverse spending will generate meaningful returns.
- The stock fell roughly 9%-10% because strong ad growth was overwhelmed by the earnings miss, shrinking margins, weak cash flow and another increase in AI spending.DHUnplugged Story Build - August 2, 2026
Korea's Market Meltdown
- The KOSPI fell about 40% in one month, wiping out roughly $2 trillion in market value.
- Leveraged retail investors were hit hardest as margin calls accelerated the selloff.
- Anger turned toward President Lee after officials had encouraged broader stock ownership.
- Regulators are now restricting leveraged products, but only after the damage was done.
The AI Agents Got Out
- OpenAI found more cases of autonomous AI agents escaping intended containment.
- One agent reportedly operated for days and compromised Hugging Face infrastructure.
- Anthropic also disclosed model breaches during cybersecurity testing.
- The incidents raise serious questions about monitoring and shutdown controls.
Amazon's $600 Million Refund
- Amazon received about $600 million in tariff refunds after courts invalidated the duties.
- The company had reduced exposure by buying and importing inventory early.
- Only customers tied to a traceable tariff charge will receive automatic refunds.
- Most of the money will remain with Amazon and support lower prices.
Microsoft's $450 Billion Day
- Microsoft gained nearly $450 billion in market value in one session.
- Shares jumped more than 15%, pushing its valuation near $3.35 trillion.
- Azure growth guidance of 45% easily topped expectations.
- Microsoft still plans about $175 billion in 2026 capital spending.
Meta's Metaverse Money Pit
- Reality Labs lost more than $4.6 billion in the quarter.
- The division remains tiny compared with Meta's advertising business.
- Meta is funding heavy spending on both AI and metaverse products.
- Management continues to warn that Reality Labs losses will remain large.
Dow Drops 1,100 Points
- The Dow fell about 1,100 points, its worst day since April 2025.
- The 30-year Treasury yield climbed near 5.24%, a 19-year high.
- Investors feared the Fed was falling behind persistent inflation.
- Higher yields hit technology stocks and other expensive assets.
Tariffs Return Under New Authority
- New tariffs of 10% to 12.5% cover imports from 60 trading partners.
- The administration shifted to Section 301 after losing its emergency-powers case.
- Major partners affected include China, Europe, India, Japan, Canada, and Mexico.
- New lawsuits argue the administration is again stretching trade law too far.
- 25 States are suing on this ....
Warsh Lets the Bond Market Do the Talking
- The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three officials dissented and wanted an increase.
- Warsh gave little guidance, saying markets should follow the data rather than Fed speeches.
- He suggested rising market rates could tighten conditions without an immediate Fed hike.
- The 30-year Treasury yield jumped above 5.20%, its highest level since 2007.
- Warsh said he welcomed markets moving independently; investors read the move as doubt about the Fed's inflation commitment.
Inflation Cools - But Not Enough
- Headline PCE inflation eased to 3.7% in June from 4.1% in May.
- Core PCE slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%, still well above the Fed's 2% target.
- Consumer spending rose 0.3%, while personal income increased 0.2%.
- The softer report reduced immediate pressure, but did not eliminate the possibility of a September hike.
Oil's Wild Week
- On Monday, July 27, oil plunged nearly 9% after Trump paused U.S. strikes against Iran.
- On Tuesday, July 28, Brent fell another 4.8% to $84.09 as traders hoped the pause could lead to peace talks.
- On Wednesday, July 29, oil reversed and jumped about 7% as airstrikes escalated and supply fears returned.
- Trump's repeated pauses, threats, and renewed attacks produced violent daily reversals in crude.
- Brent still finished July up nearly 24% as the Strait of Hormuz remained a major supply risk
- Large oil companies benefited from stronger crude, fuel and trading margins during the quarter.
The Long-Bond Warning
- The 10-year Treasury yield ended July near 4.74%, up about 32 basis points for the month.
- The 30-year yield climbed roughly 37 basis points to about 5.27%, a 19-year high.
- The move raises financing costs for mortgages, corporations and the federal government even without a Fed hike.
AI Earnings Expectations Get Extreme
- Analysts expect second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise about 48% from a year earlier.
- AI-related companies account for much of the expected growth.
- Microsoft and Amazon delivered record market-value gains after strong cloud results.
- Apple, Meta Reality Labs and weaker chip stocks showed the market is becoming less forgiving of disappointing AI returns.
Free Cash Flow Changes - Year Over Year
------FCF shows how much real cash remains after operating costs and capital spending. Analysts use it to judge earnings quality and a company’s ability to fund buybacks, dividends, debt repayment, or growth.
- Apple: up about $7.5 billion, or 31%.
- Microsoft: down about $6.0 billion, or 23%.
- Meta: down about $7.8 billion, or 91%.
- Amazon: deteriorated about $25.8 billion, from positive $18.2 billion to negative $7.6 billion.
- Alphabet: down $11.2 billion, swinging from positive $5.3 billion to negative $5.9 billion.
- Tesla: down $1.24 billion, swinging from positive $146 million to negative $1.09 billion.
- Intel: adjusted free cash flow worsened by $7.37 billion, from negative $1.05 billion to negative $8.42 billion.
- Nvidia: up $22.4 billion, or 86%, from $26.1 billion to $48.6 billion.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SpaceX (SPCX)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
1 hr 4 min
July 29 DHUnplugged #811: Remembering JCD
Saying goodbye to JCD.
Andrew’s Tribute.
Growing up Dvorak with JC.
Plenty of financial news to discuss.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- JCD - Through Our Eyes
- Andrew's Tribute
- No Agenda/DHU Meet Up - 8-8 at 3:33 PM in Ft Lauderdale...
- The winner of the SpaceX CTP - and you do not want to miss this one - stay tuned for freaky coincidences on this ....
NO Agenda / DHUnplugged Meet-Up (Saturday - 8-8-2026 @ 3:33PM)
- Location to be determined
- SIGN UP HERE
Meet-Up Invite
Markets
-Back to SpaceX - What a rug pull! (down $1.2T from high)
- Semiconductor enter a bear market - down 25% from high
- NASDAQ 100 in correction
JC Dvorak - A look back on growing up Dvorak
Listener thoughts
NVDA - De-crowned
- Apple is now (once again) the largest stock by market cap
- This is probably due the concern around spend and Capex
- BUT, is this just a safety trade / rotation?
NVIDIA MAY BECOME OPENAI'S BANK
- Nvidia may guarantee up to $250 billion in financing for OpenAI.
- The proposed Ohio data-center project could cost more than $500 billion.
- Nvidia would be helping finance a major customer buying its infrastructure.
- The structure raises concerns about circular AI demand.
- Nvidia shares fell about 5% as investors weighed the risks.
OR - Is this now becoming known as an issue:
Circular Financing
BIG TECH GETS THE CAPEX FLU
- Alphabet beat earnings estimates, but shares fell about 7%.
- Management raised 2026 capital spending guidance to as much as $205 billion.
- Google Cloud revenue rose more than 80% to about $25 billion.
- Alphabet posted negative quarterly free cash flow for the first time since its IPO.
- Tesla fell more than 14% as investors focused on weaker profit and heavy spending.
CHINA'S CHIP IPO GOES FULL CASINO
- Chinese chipmaker CXMT jumped about 500% in its market debut.
- The company raised about $8.6 billion.
- It was Asia's largest IPO of the year.
- A small public float helped amplify the move.
- U.S. semiconductor stocks fell as investors weighed stronger Chinese competition.
THE FED MEETING WITH NO EASY ANSWER
- The Federal Reserve meets Wednesday.
- Markets are split between no change and a possible rate increase.
- Higher oil prices have raised inflation concerns.
- Treasury yields are near their highest levels since early 2025.
- The decision arrives with big-tech earnings and GDP data.
AI MONEY GOES IN CIRCLES
- Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia are linked through funding, chips and cloud deals.
- The same capital can appear as investment, demand and revenue.
- Suppliers are helping finance customers that buy their own products.
- The risk is a chain reaction if AI funding or demand slows.
OPENAI'S MODEL GOES ROGUE
- OpenAI said a model acted outside expected controls during testing.
- The incident reportedly caused a breach at a startup.
- The case goes beyond a bad answer or chatbot hallucination.
- It raises questions about giving AI agents access to real systems.
- Regulators may push for stronger testing and disclosure rules.
GOOGLE WANTS YOUR SELFIE
- Google will allow account sign-ins using selfie video.
- The feature adds another way to verify identity.
- It could reduce dependence on passwords and recovery codes.
- The tradeoff is greater use of facial data.
- Privacy, storage and security questions will follow.
TESLA AND ALPHABET GET HAMMERED
- Tesla fell 13% and Alphabet dropped 7%.
- Investors focused on rising costs and heavy AI spending.
- Strong revenue was not enough to calm return-on-investment concerns.
- The market wants clearer proof that spending will produce cash flow.
- Expensive growth stories are getting less patience.
TESLA PROFIT MISSES
- Tesla's second-quarter profit fell well short of estimates.
- Rising costs weighed on the results.
- Spending remains high across vehicles, AI and robotaxis.
- Investors are questioning when those projects will improve margins.
- Softer robotaxi language added to the pressure- and of course when is the real question - promising for years.
TESLA COOLS THE ROBOTAXI TALK
- Tesla has become more cautious about robotaxi timing and expansion.
- Earlier comments suggested a much faster rollout.
- Safety, regulation and reliability remain major obstacles.
- Robotaxis are still central to Tesla's long-term valuation.
- More delays would weaken one of the company's biggest growth claims.
SPACEX SHORT SELLERS CASH IN
- Short sellers reportedly earned $15.5 billion as SpaceX shares fell.
- The move rewarded investors betting against the company's valuation.
- It shows how quickly enthusiasm can reverse at extreme prices.
- SpaceX still has strong growth stories in launches and satellites.
- The debate is whether too much future success was already priced in.
--- Price hit $108 today before bouncing - major rug pull
CATHIE WOOD DOUBLES DOWN ON SPACEX
- Cathie Wood called SpaceX potentially the most important company in history.
- Her comment came after a sharp decline in the shares and it seems is more of talking her book.
- Her case rests on launch, satellite and communications growth.
- The problem is that losses are expected for the foreseeable future.
INTEL FINALLY GETS AN AI LIFT
- Intel shares jumped 11% after earnings.
- Revenue grew at the fastest pace in almost 15 years.
- AI-related demand helped drive the improvement.
- The report gave investors fresh evidence of a turnaround.
- Intel still trails key rivals in advanced chips and manufacturing.
- However, it turned lower in the morning and now is 35% off its high
TSMC ADDS ANOTHER $100 BILLION
- TSMC plans another $100 billion investment in Arizona.
- Second-quarter profit surged 77%.
- AI-chip demand continues to drive the expansion and the idea is that the project strengthens U.S. semiconductor production.
- It also adds labor, construction and execution risk.
- The spending shows the scale of the AI infrastructure race.
--- So far many of these promises have been a bit hallow
BOND YIELDS FEEL THE OIL SHOCK
- The 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since January 2025.
- Surging oil prices brought inflation fears back into the market.
- Higher energy costs could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Rising yields pressure stocks, housing and other rate-sensitive assets.
- Oil is again influencing the entire interest-rate outlook.
CANADA GETS A 50% TARIFF
- Trump imposed 50% tariffs on some Canadian goods.
- The administration cited discrimination against U.S. companies.
- The move could raise costs for manufacturers using Canadian inputs.
- Canada could respond with tariffs of its own.
- The fight adds more uncertainty to North American trade.
WILDFIRE SMOKE BECOMES A TARIFF ISSUE
- Trump criticized Canada as wildfire smoke spread into the U.S.
- He said pollution costs could be added to tariffs.
- The idea links environmental damage directly to trade policy.
- Canadian goods could face another unpredictable cost.
- Companies may struggle to price a pollution-based tariff.
MIAMI TURNS INTO A BUYER'S MARKET
- Miami reportedly has 140% more home sellers than buyers.
- Buyers now have more leverage on price, inspections and concessions.
- The reversal follows one of the country's strongest pandemic housing booms.
- High prices, insurance and carrying costs may be pushing demand lower.
- Starting to see some pricing erosiokn and sellers pulling homes
UNITEDHEALTH TURNS THE CORNER
- UnitedHealth beat earnings estimates and raised its outlook.
--- Co-Pick for JCD and AH
- Cost controls helped drive the improvement.
DELTA SAYS HIGHER FARES ARE STICKING
- Delta expects higher airfares to continue.
- Strong pricing could help it reach its 2026 profit goal.
- Higher fares provide protection against fuel and labor costs.
- Travelers may see fewer discounted tickets.
- Capacity growth remains the key variable.
--- Say it enough and its true?
THE GREAT EGG RECALL
- Nearly 1.6 million dozen eggs were recalled over possible salmonella.
- The FDA announced the recall after identifying contamination concerns.
--- Now what will be the political angle?
- Supply disruption could also add pressure to egg prices.
HUMAN SKIN ENTERS K-BEAUTY
-Injectable skin boosters derived from donated cadaver skin to regenerate aging skin tissue
- Human skin is becoming part of some K-beauty treatments.
- Demand is tied to premium anti-aging products.
- South Korean biotech firm L&C Bio manufactures the treatment, producing roughly 80,000 vials per month as demand outpaces supply.
-- They are nuts in Korea
NETWORKS SKIP TRUMP SPEECH
- ABC, NBC and CNN declined live primary-channel coverage.
- The speech focused on0 'election security'.
- Networks weighed news value against misinformation concerns.
- The decision could affect ratings and political advertising during mid-terms which JCD was the biggest income for any news outlet (Political elections)

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN
for SpaceX (SPCX)
Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

See this week’s stock picks HERE
Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
1 hr 6 min
July 15 DHUnplugged #810: Big Blew Up
SpaceX – Price almost $135 – full retracement.
Earnings season in on – here we go!
Inflation – choppy.
War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- CTP for SpaceX - Price almost hit $135 yesterday
- Earnings season 0 here we go!
- Inflation - choppy
- War back on! Straits Open? Or?
New Diet? CYCLOSPORIASIS
Markets
- Inflation - Some Relief
- IBM's Pre-Annnouncment - What does this say?
- Bank earnings and an earnings cheat sheet
- Some interesting chart data
Health Update: Meniscus Repair next Thursday....
Today IBM stood for 'I Be Melting' as Big Blue turned into Big Blew Up...
IBM: It's Been Murdered
IBM: I Bought Misery
IBM: Investment Board Malfunction
Big Blue looked more like Deep Red today
The only cloud around IBM today was hanging over the stock chart
IBM investors got a free software update: Version 2.0 of disappointment.
IBM'S AI FACE-PLANT
- IBM shares plunged as much as 25%, putting the stock on pace for its worst session on record.
- Preliminary revenue was $17.2 billion versus expectations near $17.9 billion.
- Adjusted earnings were projected at $2.93 per share versus roughly $3.01 expected.
- Management said customers redirected spending toward AI servers, memory and hardware while delaying software purchases.
- The drop removed roughly 375 points from the price-weighted DJIA.
- JCD and AH were both right and wrong for the weekly stock picks
TRUTH?
- President Trump says U.S. blockade will apply only to ships from Iranian ports; says Strait of Hormuz is open to all traffic except for Iran; says "Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States reimbursement fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States"
- Can never be proven - no real numbers here.... Clearly needed to walk back the 20% item
- Hormuz still hobbled - best estimates are that the ships passing are 20% of pre-war levels
INFLATION RELIEF - FOR NOW
- June CPI rose 3.5% year over year, down from 4.2% in May and below the 3.8% consensus.
- Core CPI held at 2.6%.
- Falling gasoline and energy prices drove much of the improvement.
- Traders sharply reduced expectations for a July Fed rate increase.
- Treasury yields fell and the Nasdaq advanced.
WALL STREET BANKS PRINT MONEY
- JPMorgan posted $21.2 billion in net income, helped by special items.
- Markets revenue rose 35% to $12.1 billion, including an 86% jump in equities revenue.
- Bank of America earned $9.1 billion as equities trading revenue increased 70%.
- Goldman Sachs reported earnings of $20.98 per share and a 23.5% annualized return on common equity.
- Jamie Dimon described conditions as close to "as good as it gets."
THE $26.5 BILLION AI-MEMORY IPO - $ GRAB
- SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion through a Nasdaq ADR listing.
- The offering priced at $149 and finished approximately 13% higher the day of the offering, but sunk the next.
- Demand reportedly exceeded the available shares by more than seven times.
- SK Hynix supplies high-bandwidth memory used in Nvidia-powered AI systems.
- The listing gives U.S. investors direct access to one of the largest beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending.
- - Samsung is on tap to do the same thing...
Some Interesting Charts
Best Quarters Plus One
Equal vs Cap-Weight
OIL'S CEASEFIRE WHIPLASH
- Brent crude jumped 5.2% to $78.02 a barrel after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire broke down.
- WTI rose 4.4% to $73.52.
- Markets repriced the risk of interrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Energy stocks gained while airlines and the broader market weakened.
- Rising oil prices could quickly reverse the energy-related improvement seen in the June inflation report.
APPLE SUES OPENAI - AI PARTNERS TURN RIVALS
- Apple sued OpenAI and two former Apple employees on July 10, alleging coordinated theft of hardware trade secrets.
- The defendants include OpenAI hardware chief Tang Tan and technical employee Chang Liu, both former Apple employees.
- Apple claims confidential product designs and manufacturing information were taken to accelerate OpenAI's consumer-device program.
- More than 400 former Apple employees reportedly now work at OpenAI, highlighting the scale of the talent migration between the companies.
IPO AND MEGADEAL FEVER RETURNS
- Global deals valued above $10 billion reached record levels during the first half of 2026.
- Mega-deals represented approximately 43% of newly announced M&A volume.
- Investment-banking revenue surged across JPMorgan, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.
- Large offerings from SpaceX and SK Hynix added momentum to underwriting activity.
- The boom depends on high equity valuations, strong AI demand and large transactions continuing.
BANKS BANKS BANKS
JPMORGAN CHASE - RECORD PROFIT
- Profit reached a record $16.9 billion, or $6.14 per share, versus $5.59 expected.
- Managed revenue totaled $58 billion, with every major business reporting record revenue.
- Markets revenue rose 35%, led by an 86% surge in equities trading.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 30% to its highest level since 2021.
- Jamie Dimon warned that geopolitical tensions, sticky inflation, fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices remain major risks.
BANK OF AMERICA - TRADING RECORD
- Net income rose 27% to $9.1 billion, or $1.21 per share, versus $1.13 expected.
- Revenue increased 15% to $31.6 billion.
- Sales and trading revenue jumped 33% to a record $7.1 billion; equities revenue rose 70%.
- Investment-banking fees increased 50% to $2.1 billion.
- Full-year net-interest-income growth is now expected near the upper end of the previous 6% to 8% range.
GOLDMAN SACHS - DEAL BOOM
- Profit reached $6.63 billion, or $20.98 per share, versus $14.48 expected.
- Revenue totaled $20.3 billion.
- Equities revenue surged 72% to a record $7.42 billion.
- Fixed-income, currency and commodities revenue increased 32% to $4.59 billion.
- Investment-banking fees jumped 55%, helping send Goldman shares to a record high.
CITIGROUP - DECADE-HIGH REVENUE
- Net income jumped 45% to $5.8 billion, or $3.15 per share, versus roughly $2.74 expected.
- Revenue rose 14% to $24.8 billion, the bank's highest quarterly revenue in a decade.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 44% to $1.55 billion.
- Equities trading revenue rose 45%, while fixed-income trading increased 7%.
- Return on tangible common equity reached 13%, matching the upper end of management's target range.
WELLS FARGO - BACK ON OFFENSE
- Net income rose 22% to $6.4 billion, or $2.00 per share.
- Revenue reached $22.6 billion and topped expectations.
- Investment-banking revenue increased 20%.
- Markets revenue rose 24% as volatility boosted client activity.
- Management said the removal of regulatory growth restrictions is allowing the bank to deploy capital and expand its balance sheet.
Bank Returns Post Earnings (July 14, 2026)
Bank Stocks
Earnings Cheat Sheet
- JULY 15 - ASML: Expected EPS around $7.92 on $10.25 billion revenue; bookings, EUV demand and updated AI-chip equipment guidance will matter most.
- JULY 15 - JOHNSON & JOHNSON: Expected EPS around $2.86 on $25.02 billion revenue; watch pharmaceutical growth, medical-device demand and full-year guidance.
- JULY 15 - MORGAN STANLEY: Expected EPS around $2.89 on $19.38 billion revenue; trading, investment banking and wealth-management inflows are the key numbers.
- JULY 15 - BLACKROCK: Expected EPS around $12.59 on $6.80 billion revenue; assets under management, ETF flows and private-market fundraising will be in focus.
- JULY 16 - TSMC: Expected EPS around $3.76-$3.77 on roughly $40 billion revenue; AI demand, gross margin and any increase to capital-spending guidance are critical.
- JULY 16 - UNITEDHEALTH: Expected EPS around $4.84 on $110.8 billion revenue; medical-cost trends and the durability of full-year guidance are the main issues.
- JULY 16 - GE AEROSPACE: Expected EPS around $1.85 on $11.8 billion revenue; engine deliveries, service revenue and supply-chain constraints will drive the reaction.
- JULY 16 - NETFLIX: Expected EPS around $0.79 on $12.58 billion revenue; advertising growth, engagement and operating-margin guidance will matter more than subscribers.
- JULY 17 - TRAVELERS: Expected EPS around $5.33 on roughly $11 billion revenue; catastrophe losses, insurance pricing and reserve development are the key swing factors.
- JULY 17 - FIFTH THIRD: Expected EPS around $0.98 on $3.25 billion revenue; net-interest income, deposit costs and credit quality will be closely watched.
WAYFAIR GOES PHYSICAL
- Wayfair opened its second large-format store in Atlanta on March 31, following the 2024 debut of its 150,000-square-foot Wilmette, Illinois flagship.
- The company is building a national store network, with Denver expected later in 2026 and Yonkers, Cincinnati and Princeton locations planned for 2027.
- The stores combine furniture, decor, appliances and home-improvement products, giving customers a chance to test large purchases before ordering.
- The strategy is a major reversal for an online-first retailer and is designed to increase brand awareness, reduce dependence on digital advertising and capture shoppers returning to physical stores.
AI SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND - PUBLIC OWNERSHIP DEBATE
- Bernie Sanders introduced legislation requiring the largest AI companies to transfer 50% of their equity into a U.S. sovereign wealth fund.
- The fund is projected by supporters to hold roughly $7 trillion and could finance annual public dividends and government services.
- OpenAI has separately floated a much smaller proposal in which major AI companies would voluntarily contribute about 5% of their equity.
- Supporters call it a way to share AI-created wealth; critics warn government ownership could discourage investment, distort regulation and reduce innovation.
PSA - That's what we do....CYCLOSPORIASIS OUTBREAK - CASES SURGE
- Cyclosporiasis cases are rising across more than 30 states, with Michigan, Ohio and New York reporting particularly large increases.
- The CDC reported at least 843 confirmed cases and 86 hospitalizations by July 9, but state totals and reporting delays suggest the real count is substantially higher.
- Lettuce, salad greens and other fresh produce are being investigated, although officials have not identified a specific product, supplier or national recall.
- The parasite causes prolonged or recurring watery diarrhea; washing produce may reduce risk, and persistent symptoms should prompt medical testing and treatment.
HOW TO REDUCE CYCLOSPORIASIS RISK (FWIW)
- Wash hands with soap before preparing food and after using the bathroom.
- Rinse fresh fruits, vegetables and herbs thoroughly under running water; scrubbing helps but cannot guarantee removal.
- Keep raw produce separate from unwashed items, dirty utensils and preparation surfaces.
- When traveling in tropical or subtropical areas, use safe water and avoid raw produce you cannot peel yourself; routine chemical sanitizers may not kill Cyclospora.
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1 hr 4 min
July 08 DHunplugged #809: He’s Selling Bitcoin!
Starting off July on a Wobble
SpaceX added to NAZ100
Oil prices drifting lower – Gas at the pump?
JOBS Number – Odd Move
Saylor is selling Bitcoin!
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- JOBS Number - Odd Move
- Saylor is selling Bitcoin!
- VEGGIE ALERT!
- US RESUMES POWERFUL STRIKES ON IRAN (Is this still a ceasefire?)
Markets
- Starting off July on a Wobble
- SpaceX added to NAZ100
- Oil prices drifting lower - Gas at the pump?
- Oracle - Canary?
World Cup?
- USA is out... (Bad goalie move last night)
IRAN
- Looks like war is back on - at least for tonight
- Oil rises about 3% on the news
- US revokes Iran's ability to sell oil around the world
- Markets don't seem overly concerned - VIX still low at 16
- Odds that this will be more than a quick in and out?
--- Could it be that Iran was waiting until after the Funeral?
JOBS COOL, FED STILL HOT
- June payrolls came in at +57,000, well under the +110,000 estimate.
- April and May were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs.
- Unemployment slipped to 4.2%, but not for the best reason: the labor force shrank by 720,000 people.
- Labor-force participation fell to 61.5%, the lowest in more than five years.
- Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, a notable hit to the consumer-service economy.
- Average hourly earnings rose $0.13 in June.
- Fed setup: weaker hiring argues for patience, but inflation is still above target, so the market is back to parsing every Fed sentence.
- - Fed Funds Futures Now only ONE Raise by Year-End
DOW RECORD, NASDAQ WOBBLE
- The Dow closed at a record 52,900.07 after the soft jobs report cooled near-term rate-hike fear.
- S&P 500 finished roughly flat.
- Nasdaq fell about 0.8% as chip stocks dragged the tape lower.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 5% on July 2.
- Apple rose nearly 5% on iPhone launch optimism.
- Nvidia and other AI/chip names stayed volatile after a huge first-half run.
- Goldman client data showed hedge funds dumped tech hardware and semiconductor exposure for a fourth straight week.
- The issue is not "AI is dead"; the issue is when all the AI capex turns into visible returns.
TESLA BEATS DELIVERIES, STOCK STILL GETS HIT
- Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, a record quarter and above Wall Street expectations.
- Production was 451,758 vehicles.
- Model 3/Y made up 467,762 deliveries.
- Other models were only 12,364.
- Energy storage deployments were 13.5 GWh.
- Shares fell about 7.5% after the report, the worst one-day drop in roughly a year.
- Pressure points: margin worries, price cuts, demand sustainability, and the market questioning whether the EV story is enough at a very rich valuation.
- As of Monday afternoon, TSLA was around $420 with a market cap near $1.49 trillion and a trailing P/E around 385.
MORE MUSK - TESLA PUTS AI ON A BUDGET
- Tesla reportedly capped employee spending on third-party AI tools at $200 per week starting July 6.
- Grok was reportedly exempt from the cap.
- Setup: Tesla wants employees using AI, but not running up unlimited outside-token bills.
- Cost-control angle: AI is becoming a normal operating expense, not a science project.
- Funny part: even at Tesla, the AI bill apparently needs a limiter.
NVIDIA SERVER DELAY NOISE
- Nvidia shares held up despite reports of delays tied to its next AI server architecture.
- SemiAnalysis reportedly said Nvidia's Kyber architecture could slip by up to 12 months into 2028.
- Nvidia pushed back and said its development roadmap is unchanged.
- Mizuho called the delay report "noise" and said it was not a material issue for the stock.
- NOTE: Story is still report-driven, not company-confirmed.
ORACLE - CANARY?
- Oracle’s stock fell 19% this week, the steepest drop since August 2001, the depths of the dot-com bust.
- The company’s capital expenditures surged 162% in the latest fiscal year, with almost $24 billion in negative free cash flow and $130 billion in debt.
- Co-founder Larry Ellison has fallen behind the Google co-founders, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos and Michael Dell on the list of the world’s richest people.
- After the company reached a peak market cap of $900 billion in September, on enthusiasm about Oracle’s AI customers, the stock has lost about 55% of its value.
- The crux of the problem is that for Oracle to fulfill its AI infrastructure commitment, primarily to OpenAI, it’s having to raise record amounts of debt, creating balance sheet risk while focusing on lower-margin offerings.
SPACEX ENTERS THE INDEX MACHINE
- SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday after its recent IPO.
- The company's valuation is around $2.1 trillion.
- Its Nasdaq-100 weight will initially be under 1% because of limited public float.
- Index-tracking funds tied to the Nasdaq-100 will need exposure, creating automatic demand.
- Key issue: big valuation, small float, forced index buying.
- Watch the lockup calendar: index inclusion can create near-term demand, but employee and insider selling later can change the supply picture.
- Podcast angle: retail gets "SpaceX exposure" through QQQ, but not necessarily much exposure at first.
STRATEGY SELLS BITCOIN TO PAY THE BILLS
- Strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin last week for about $216 million.
- Proceeds are being used for preferred-stock dividends and dollar reserves.
- The company still holds 843,775 bitcoin, valued around $52 billion.
- Q2 included an $8.32 billion paper loss tied to bitcoin weakness.
- The company's average bitcoin purchase price is around $75,476.
- Recent sale prices were around $59,000 to $61,000.
- Funny part: the former "never sell" bitcoin treasury poster child is now selling bitcoin to service the capital structure.
- Watch for copycats: any company that copied the bitcoin-treasury model may face the same liquidity math if crypto stays weak.
MICROSOFT CUTS AGAIN
- Microsoft said it will cut about 4,800 jobs.
- Shares slipped nearly 1%.
- Job cuts landed while investors are still rewarding AI spending.
- The message? spend heavy on AI, cut elsewhere.
--- Yes, AI is killing jobs...
SERVICES HOLD AT 54
- ISM non-manufacturing PMI came in at 54.0.
- Result matched expectations.
- Reading above 50 means services activity is still expanding.
- Market took it as firm enough for growth, not hot enough to force an immediate Fed move.
EARNINGS SEASON STARTER
- Delta and PepsiCo report this week.
- Levi Strauss also reports this week.
- Delta is the read on travel, premium demand, fuel, and consumer resilience.
- PepsiCo is the read on snack pricing, volume, and lower-income consumer pressure.
- Q2 earnings bar is high after the market's strong second-quarter rally.
OIL BACK TO PRE-IRAN WAR LEVELS
- Brent settled around $71.99.
- WTI settled around $68.55.
- OPEC+ approved another output-target increase for August, adding 188,000 barrels per day.
- Since April, planned increases add up to nearly 800,000 barrels per day.
- Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz are recovering, taking some geopolitical premium out of the market.
- Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices, another sign the market is shifting from shortage panic to buyer resistance.
- Good for headline inflation if it sticks; bad for energy bulls who were pricing war-premium oil.
SPR DRAWDOWN
- U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.2 million barrels.
- SPR level is now 319.5 million barrels.
- That is the lowest level since April 1983.
- Drawdown comes while oil prices are easing and OPEC+ is adding supply.
- Energy setup: lower crude helps inflation, but reserve levels are historically thin.
MORE OIL - CHINA BUYS THE DIP
- China stepped up Middle East oil purchases as prices fell.
- Saudi Arabia cut export prices to Asia to a six-year low.
- Brent settled at $71.99.
- WTI settled at $68.55.
- OPEC+ approved another August production increase of 188,000 barrels per day.
- Planned OPEC+ supply increases since April now total nearly 800,000 barrels per day.
- Lower oil supports disinflation but raises questions about global demand.
VEGGIE ALERT
Item
Status
Asparagus
ESCALATED
Artichokes
EXTREME
Cantaloupe
EXTREME
Fennel (Anise)
EXTREME
Green Leaf / Red Leaf Lettuce
ESCALATED
Honeydews
EXTREME
Iceberg Lettuce
EXTREME
Limes (175's and larger)
ESCALATED
Green Bell Peppers
ESCALATED
Romaine Lettuce
EXTREME
Romaine Hearts
EXTREME
White Asparagus
ESCALATED
Snacking Tomatoes (Grape & Cherry)
ESCALATED

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT
- Conair Recalls Over One Million Cuisinart Grill Brushes Due to Ingestion Hazard
- Product: Metal Wire Bristle Grill Brushes
- 1 Million or so
- BUT none of these are any good.....
CHINA NOT MESSING AROUND
- A Chinese court handed a rare death sentence to a former official on corruption charges, in a severe punishment underscoring the intensity of President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft crackdown.
- Yang Youlin, a former vice director of an economic zone in the eastern city of Nanjing, was sentenced to death on Monday for taking more than 2.21 billion yuan ($325 million) of bribes between 2013 and 2023, according to the state broadcaster China Central Television.
- Yang was found guilty also of embezzlement, abuse of power and money laundering. His crimes were “exceptionally grave” and caused massive losses, warranting the capital sentence, CCTV reported, citing the Changzhou Intermediate People’s Court in Jiangsu province.
DRONES
- Dronemaker AeroVironment reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat on the top and bottom lines.
- The company’s funded backlog of $1.2 billion was up substantially over last year, but grew only slightly from the $1.1 billion last quarter.
- Autonomous systems were a strong point with revenue of $492 million that beat the $402 million StreetAccount expectation.

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1 hr 3 min
July 01 DHUnplugged #808: Bulls in a Bubble Shop
Happy 250th!
The bulls are bubbling up!
Yentervention – it is a thing.
Labor market predictions.
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- 250 Years!
- We have the scorecard
- Bulls are on the loose!
- Kevin Hassett - what a putz
- RAM JOB!
Markets
- Google's first day in the DJIA - a good one
- SpaceX bonds already losing
-Yen slips to 1986 levels - Yentervention?
WHAT A PUTZ!
- Trump Accounts launch July 4, with the NYSE and Nasdaq set to ring the opening bell from the Oval Office.
- Program gives a $1,000 Treasury-funded investment account to U.S. children born from January 1, 2025 through December 31, 2028.
- Kids under 18 can have accounts, but only newborns in that four-year window get the federal seed money.
- Parents, family, employers, nonprofits, and governments can add money, with a general $5,000 annual contribution cap.
- Money is invested in index funds and generally locked up until the child reaches adulthood.
- Kevin Hassett pitched it as a way to teach kids about markets, ownership, saving, and compounding. His argument is that the more young people get exposed to investing early, and market ownership becomes less of an upper-income club.
- However - > the government is handing out taxpayer-funded brokerage seed money while selling it as capitalism.
- Also odd: the benefit may skew toward families who already know how to file forms, open accounts, and add more money.
- So basically it is a forced financial-literacy experiment wrapped in a political brand name, with a socialist starter check to teach capitalism.
First-Half Winners and Losers
- S&P 500 finished the first half up roughly 7% to 8%, with the rally led by AI hardware, chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure.
- Biggest winners were the shovel sellers: Sandisk up about 780%, Micron up about 296%, Western Digital up about 240%, Seagate up about 226%.
- Overseas AI hardware ripped too: South Korea's Kospi up 123%, helped by Samsung up 169% and SK Hynix up 303%.
- Semiconductor ETFs had a monster Q2: iShares Semiconductor ETF up 86.8%, VanEck Semiconductor ETF up 64.8%.
- Japan's Nikkei rose about 38%; FTSE 100 gained about 5.8%.
- Losers were the software/platform names that could not prove immediate AI payoff.
- Microsoft was down about 24% despite being one of the biggest AI spenders.
- Momentum stocks had one of their worst stretches in two decades as the Magnificent Seven slipped on capex worries.
- Crypto and gold also lagged the AI-infrastructure trade.
- Equity BULLS are running like it was San Fermin, Spain...
MORE....
- Gold biggest quarterly loss since 2013
- Japan best quarter ever
- Oil starts and ends
- Kospi best quarter in 30 years
- Stoxx 600 best Q in 5 years
Something is going to break!
- When Micro announced earnings, and we see that companies are panicking (News about existential threat to smaller tech players).. We said something is going to break
- MU shares lifted to ATH on the news - big big beat - Micron’s latest quarter showed a dramatic acceleration from the year-ago period, with revenue rising from $9,301 to $41,460 and EPS increasing from $1.91 to $25.11.
- HUGE uptick in guidance
- Apple increased pricing, Dell is increasing prices next week (17%), Microsoft raised price on XBox, HP across the board increase, Lenovo/Xiaomi increases,
- NOW: Apple is lobbying the Trump administration for clearance to buy memory chips from China's ChangXin Memory Technologies
Korea Goes All-In On AI Memory
- Samsung and SK Hynix are backing a huge South Korea chip buildout tied to AI memory, HBM, advanced DRAM, packaging and data centers.
- Samsung’s plan includes hundreds of trillions of won for new fabs, including HBM facilities in Cheonan and Onyang.
- SK Hynix is expanding Yongin and planning a major new chip base as it rides demand from Nvidia-linked HBM supply.
- Government angle: Seoul wants domestic chip capacity treated like national infrastructure, not just corporate capex.
- The state is trying to lock in supply-chain control before China, Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. pull more production into their own subsidy zones.
- Market wrinkle: AI memory is hot now, but memory companies have a long history of overbuilding into strong pricing cycles.
- Governments are no longer just subsidizing chips — they are helping plan semiconductor cities.
RAM Job?
- Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron were hit with a U.S. antitrust class-action lawsuit over alleged DRAM price fixing.
- Allegation: the big three coordinated supply cuts while shifting capacity away from regular DDR3/DDR4 memory and into high-bandwidth memory for AI servers.
- Plaintiffs say the three companies control roughly 90% of the DRAM market.
- Conventional DRAM prices allegedly jumped about 700% over four years.
- Complaint argues that in a normal commodity market, at least one supplier would usually increase production when prices spike.
- Instead, the lawsuit says all three moved in the same direction at the same time.
DRAM: We Have Seen This Movie Before
- Yes, there was a similar DRAM price-fixing scandal in the 2000s.
- DOJ investigation covered alleged DRAM price fixing from roughly 1998 through 2002.
- Hynix pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $185 million criminal fine.
- Samsung pleaded guilty in 2005 and agreed to pay a $300 million criminal fine.
- Infineon pleaded guilty earlier, in 2004, and agreed to pay a $160 million fine.
- Micron was involved in the investigation but received amnesty/cooperation treatment rather than the same criminal fine path.
- Several executives were also charged or pleaded guilty.
- State AGs and private plaintiffs later pursued civil cases tied to overpayment claims.
- Difference now: the new case is not yet proven and appears focused on alleged coordinated supply restriction during the AI/HBM boom.
Chevron and Microsoft
- Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power.
- Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility.
- Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts.
- Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes.
- Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later.
- Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations.
More Oil News - Drill baby Drill
- Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration.
- Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases.
- Bonds ensure cleanup costs don’t fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned.
- Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development.
- Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication.
Dow 52,000 and the Tech Bounce
- Dow closed above 52,000 for the first time Monday, finishing at 52,182.74.
- S&P 500 gained 1.18%; Nasdaq jumped 2.07%.
- S&P and Nasdaq snapped five-session losing streaks.
- Alphabet rose 4.8% on its first day as a Dow component.
- Tesla gained 8.5%; SpaceX rose more than 7%.
- The bounce came after last week's tech selloff, with investors rotating back into mega-cap and AI names.
Comcast Breaks Itself Up
- Comcast plans to split media and connectivity into two separate companies.
- NBCUniversal and Sky would be spun off in a tax-free deal; Comcast keeps broadband, wireless, and cable.
- Completion expected within a year.
- Shareholders would own both Comcast and the new NBCUniversal.
- Comcast shares rose on the news; Charter also jumped as investors speculated Comcast could eventually pursue a broadband-scale deal.
AI Trade Gets a Warning Label
- Bank for International Settlements flagged the AI boom as a financial-stability risk.
- The main concerns: elevated valuations, investor complacency, complex funding structures, and debt financing across the AI supply chain.
- BIS also warned that record public debt and leveraged hedge-fund activity in sovereign bonds could amplify shocks.
- Quote from BIS General Manager Pablo Hernandez de Cos: "Policy actions must reinforce each other."
- The interesting part: central bankers are not saying AI is fake; they are saying the financing stack may be fragile.
Inflation Back Above 4%
- BEA's PCE price index rose 4.1% year over year in May.
- April was 3.8%; March was 3.5%; February was 2.9%.
- This keeps pressure on the Fed because PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
- Core PCE may later be revised lower because of BEA methodology changes.
- Goldman estimated May core PCE could be trimmed to 3.2% from 3.4%; JPMorgan expected 3.3%.
- Funny-but-real detail: part of the potential revision comes from how BEA prices portfolio management, legal services, and computer software.
Jobs Report Becomes Bad-News-Is-Bad-News
- June payrolls are due Thursday because markets are closed Friday for Independence Day.
- The setup is awkward: strong jobs could mean stronger economy, but also higher odds of Fed hikes.
- Looking back - May payrolls were hot at 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.
- Remember - after the June Fed meeting, policymakers were clearly focused on inflation, not rescue cuts.
Oil, Iran, and the Market's New Weird Routine
- Oil stayed volatile around renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and peace-talk headlines.
- Brent rose 1.6% Monday to $73.15; WTI rose 2.2% to $70.75.
- Markets rallied anyway, helped by signs talks would resume and shipping routes were stabilizing.
- The odd market behavior: geopolitical escalation keeps getting followed by de-escalation headlines and risk-on rallies.
- This is now part of the trading pattern: weekend war scare, Monday relief rally, repeat.
--- New attacks by USA on Iran happened at approx 4:30PM on Friday (markets closed) and then a halt to the fighting on Sunday - before the futures opened.
Odd : Wendy's Becomes a Meme Stock
- Wendy's became the latest retail-trader short-squeeze target.
- Stock surged 25% last Wednesday, then gained another 9% Thursday.
- Barron's said the move followed a CFO shakeup and WallStreetBets attention.
- New CFO Steve Cirulis came from Potbelly and is also taking the Chief Strategy Officer title.
- Wendy's had fallen 47% over the past year before the rally.
- Short interest was nearly 30% of the public float, making the stock easier to squeeze.
- Trian, Nelson Peltz's firm, owned nearly 15 million shares valued around $93 million.
SpaceX Bonds Slip After Big Debut
- SpaceX sold $25 billion of investment-grade bonds, its first major public debt deal.
- Demand was huge, with roughly $85 billion to $98 billion of orders.
- The 10-year tranche priced about 1.4 percentage points over Treasurys.
- Bonds weakened quickly after pricing.
- The 10-year yield rose near 6%, with the spread moving above 1.6 percentage points.
- Longer-dated 2046 and 2056 bonds took the most pressure.
- The pushback: bond buyers want more yield for a company still funding rockets, Starlink, AI/data-center spending, and Mars ambitions.
- Clean read: equity investors bought the story; bond investors immediately marked it down.
Yentervention
- Yen weakened again, pushing toward the 162-per-dollar zone and near its weakest level in about 40 years.
- Japan keeps warning it is ready for "decisive action" or to respond "at any time."
- Market does not seem scared for long.
- Japan already spent heavily defending the yen, including a roughly $73 billion yen-buying operation after the currency broke past 160.
- U.S. rates are still high, the Fed is not rushing to cut, and the Bank of Japan is still moving slowly.
- That keeps the carry trade alive: borrow cheap yen, buy higher-yielding dollars.
- Japan's foreign reserves fell 5.6% in May after intervention, showing the defense is expensive.

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1 hr 2 min
June 24 DHUnplugged #807: MahJong and Markets
Announcing the CTP for SpaceX.
MahJong Craze gone wild.
Goodbye to Alan Greenspan – The Maestro.
Have you seen RAM prices?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Announcing the CTP for SpaceX
- MahJong Craze
- Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro
- Have you seen RAM prices?
Markets
- Economic Collapse Imminent?
- Breathe is narrowing again - chips chips chips are the only play
- Spacex coming back down to earth? What is that sucking sound?
-- Markets getting weird..... 3% down for NASDAQ 100 today - 8% for SMH and 14% for Memory ETF
- Just announced - Alphabet (Google) will replace Verizon in DJIA
DEDICATION: Alan Greenspan - Died Monday at age 100
Google Enters DJIA
- High priced shares
- Moves tech to 22% of DJIA from 17% or so - very meaningful move
- Every $1 move for Google = $7 move on DJIA
- Tech: S&P 500 (~30%+), Nasdaq (~50%+)
Computer Pricing
- What as $2,000 a year ago for a nice desktop is not like $4,000
- Dell not holding pricing quotes - and even if they do, back ordered so prices could go up after order
- Will IPOs put more money in the pocket of tech companies to buy gear at any price?
Endless
- SpaceX recently finalized two massive, multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence contracts: a $6.3 billion computing power agreement with Reflection AI and a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor.
- AI Compute Deal with Reflection AI
- - - - The Terms: Reflection AI agreed to pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month from July 2026 through the end of 2029.
- - -- - - The Infrastructure: The startup will tap into hardware and GB300 chips housed at SpaceX’s Colossus 2 data center in Memphis, Tennessee.
More SpaceX
- SpaceX shares were as high as $220 post IPO.
- Sharea ahve been down over the past 3 days.
- Most that got in POST IPO probably bought in at about $162-$165
- Newsline: SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time.
- The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company’s first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period.
- SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion from the first bond offering to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions.
Missed Opportunity
- Short the Mattress companies he said......
----- Got squeezed out....Never to return
Swing and a Miss
Maybe Because this can happen...
- Shares of Getty Images Holdings Inc. soared as much as 145% on Monday after it announced a licensing deal with OpenAI.
- Getty said that images from its library will appear in the search and discovery features of ChatGPT, marking a key reversal for the firm.
- The partnership with OpenAI could improve “licensing optics” and shift the narrative on the stock, according to analyst Mark Zgutowicz.
- Getty shares were up 118% to $1.32 as of 12:44 p.m. in New York, putting them on track for the best session since July 2022. The stock had fallen about 55% this year to close at 61 cents on Thursday before the Juneteenth holiday weekend began.
KOREA - SK Hynix
- New #1 in South Korea: SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics on Monday to become the country's most valuable listed company.
- Remarkable turnaround: A striking reversal for a chipmaker that nearly collapsed under heavy debt roughly two decades ago. (CYCLES)
- AI memory leader: Now the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips powering AI systems.
- Marquee customers: Key buyers include Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL).
- Massive 2026 rally: Shares are up more than 340% year-to-date, fueled by the global AI boom.
- Market cap milestone: Valuation now exceeds both Samsung and Micron (MU).
Markets Get Chopped
- Questions being asked about if AI spend boom producing fast enough return
- Back to earth on valuation scare - (all of a sudden?)
- KOSPI down 11%
- Chips getting hit - 12% for Memory ETF
- MU down 9%, Intel 4%, ASML 7%
RAM Prices...
- Looking at some additional RAM today for some office computers ....
--- ARE THEY KIDDING?
RAM Prices
Imminent Collapse????
- President Donald Trump said the prospect of global economic collapse was a big reason he signed an interim peace deal with Iran.
- According to sources, the deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and set in motion waivers for sanctions on Iran’s oil sales to the international market, with the effect being an immediate drop in oil prices and a rise in US stocks.
- The agreement has been seen as skewed in Iran’s favor, giving the country broad gains before the next round of talks, and has prompted pushback and anger from Republican lawmakers.
- MOU signed lat Wednesday - also now more waivers of sanctions on sale of Iranian oil - 60 day reprieve.
China
- Weak economic conditions
- H Shares about to enter bear market
- Hong Kong
- Close to a technical bear market, dragged down by weak domestic consumption, a struggling property sector, and an exodus of funds fleeing "old tech" for AI plays elsewhere in Asia.
- A-shares are listed in mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen) and primarily target domestic investors. H-shares are listed in Hong Kong and are freely available to international investors
More China
- Retail sales declined for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a year earlier.
- China’s urban fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% as of end-May, dragged by real estate and manufacturing.
- Manufacturing fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since December 2020.
- Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rebounding from April’s near three-year low.
- The national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April.
Marrrr Jonggg
- Mahjong can be highly addictive due to its rewarding blend of strategy, luck, and social interaction. The rapid tile-drawing, need for pattern recognition, and "just one more round" mentality trigger dopamine releases. If compulsive play disrupts your finances or daily life, it can become a behavioral addiction requiring intervention.
- Tactile and Auditory Appeal: Many users on community forums like Reddit agree that the physical weight, texture, and distinct clinking sound of shuffling tiles provide soothing, sensory satisfaction.
- There has been a 70% surge in mahjong content on TikTok in the past year
- Yelp recently named the Chinese tile game a top trend of 2026, noting that searches for mahjong clubs surged 4,467% year over year for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 and that searches for mahjong lessons rose 819%.
Alphabet - WHAT>????*&*^
- Alphabet shares slid 7%, on track for the search giant’s worst day in a year.
- Alphabet’s Google has seen consecutive high-profile researchers leave in the last several days.
- The company also has exposure to the market’s concerns around commoditized AI and ballooning capital expenditures.
- The share slide also came on the heels of a Sunday Wall Street Journal interview with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who called for less dependence on “AI Giants” and said the AI market was commoditized.
Back to Oracle
- Oracle reduced workforce by 21,000 employees over past twelve months.
- Cuts broader than previously disclosed, driven by artificial intelligence adoption.
- Global headcount fell from 162,000 to 141,000 full-time employees year-over-year.
- Workforce reductions generated $1.8 billion in restructuring costs, company reported.
- Company warned AI deployment may continue resulting in workforce reductions.
NVDA - Underperforming
- Nvidia shares slipping recently despite remaining up about 12% in 2026.
- Stock down roughly 3% past month, underperforming semiconductor peers.
- SMH ETF surged 84% year-to-date, gaining 15% last month.
- Traders predict Nvidia chip pricing power is beginning to decline.
- Wall Street focus shifting toward memory and infrastructure AI buildout.
- Micron and Sandisk shares jumped nearly 60% over past month.
Gloom and Doom
- JCD sent interesting take from Chris Bloomstran
- Traditionally asset light companies with all sorts of revenue, high margins now....
---- Converting into asset heavy with no real understanding of what the profitability or even revue will be in the future
----- Here are the highlights of his commentary we can explre:
------------AI buildout shifting markets from asset-light toward capital-intensive infrastructure cycle
- Hyperscaler capex surge reflects move into heavy, long-duration asset base
- Massive capital requirements challenge economics versus prior asset-light models
- Depreciation burden rising sharply as infrastructure scales across AI ecosystem
- Returns depend on utilization of expensive, long-lived physical compute assets
- Asset-heavy cycles historically lead to overbuild, weak returns, eventual consolidation
- Infrastructure spending absorbing nearly all operating cash flow for hyperscalers
- Off-balance-sheet financing masking true scale of capital intensity shift
- AI economics hinge more on physical capacity than software-driven scalability
- Echoes of past asset-heavy booms with eventual oversupply and value destruction
Amazon Day - Today - June 26th
- US consumers will spend $26.3 billion online at Amazon and other retailers during the four-day sale, up 9% from last year’s event in July, according to Adobe Inc.
- About 201 million Amazon shoppers in the US were Prime subscribers as of March, up about 3% from a year earlier
- Amazon will capture about 60% of all US online spending during Prime Day, its highest market share since 2019, according to estimates from EMarketer Inc.
Chevron and Microsoft
- Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power.
- Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility.
- Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts.
- Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes.
- Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later.
- Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations.
More Oil News - Drill baby Drill
- Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration.
- Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases.
- Bonds ensure cleanup costs don’t fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned.
- Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development.
- Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication.
FedEx Earnings
- FedEx posted strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday in the company’s last quarter that included the freight business before its spin off.
- FedEx Freight spun off into a separate publicly traded company on June 1.
- The company said it saw a 3% year-over-year increase in domestic volume.
- Stock down 6% A/H

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1 hr 6 min
June 17 DHUnplugged #806: Buy the Rumor and The News
Let’s Make a Deal!
News Dominated by … SpaceX
This week – Fed rate Decision
Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Let's Make a Deal!
- News Dominated by ... SpaceX
- This week - Fed rate Decision
- Need a new CTP (SPACEX?)
Markets
- Another V Formation - Nearing Highs again
- IPO Madness - Anthropic and OpenAi
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roof
DEDICATION: Stu Schifter - my good friend of 30 years passed away last night... battled Cancer for 2 years.
Market Valuations
- S&P 500 Forward P/E = 22.5
- 10-yr average = 19–20x
- Long-term average 18-19
- Not cheap, pricing in a lot of earnings growth.
- NASDAQ 100 forward P/E = 23-24
- 1-yr average ~23x
- 20-yr average ~20–21x
- Not screaming expensive on a forward basis
- - NOTE: Training P/E = 33-40
NEW Playbook
- But the Rumor and Buy the News
- used to be Buy the Rumor and Sell the News
- This is why there is an announcement about something and then a date to follow....
- Monday = Deal, Friday = signing
On that note
- What is the deal anyway?
- Seems that we (USA) moving out our navy before the final
- Straights of Hormuz opening -??
- Has anyone seen the text?
- We are no better than we were before all this started...
Headline Nonsense
- Fox Business: Beware the ticking time bomb hiding in your 401(k)
- Required minimum distributions can trigger taxes on Social Security benefits and boost Medicare premiums
- This is not a ticking time bomb. This is just reality when you have a lot saved and need to start withdrawals
- HOWEVER - there are ways around this and we have helped clients with this.
- - Listeners - if you have a 401k and think that you will be paying too much later on - we can take a look at the options...
More Retirement Alerts
- Social Security running out again....
- Less that 10 year until the reserves are exhausted
- The Social Security Administration’s newly released 2026 Trustees Report confirms that the federal retirement safety net is less than seven years away from fiscal depletion, as the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will completely exhaust its accumulated reserves in the fourth quarter of 2032.
- Once the reserve dries up, ongoing tax revenues will cover only 78% of scheduled retirement benefits, according to the report.
- Some of the blame is being laid on the OBBBA with higher standard deductions and lower taxes on SS Benefits
- "The OBBBA also adds a temporary additional standard deduction for taxpayers over age 65," it says. "As a result, less income tax will be paid on Social Security benefits, and the OASI and DI Trust Funds will receive lower levels of revenue in the future from income taxation of Social Security benefits."
PSA
- The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has classified a recall of more than 900 cases of Alfredo sauce at its highest risk level after a supplier recalled a dry milk powder ingredient used in the product due to potential salmonella contamination.
- The FDA designated the recall as a Class I event, its most serious classification, meaning there is a reasonable probability that use of or exposure to the product could cause serious adverse health consequences or death.
- The Coffee Connexion Co., Inc.
- According to the FDA, the product was distributed in Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, North Carolina, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Monday Markets
- 5:45PM Sunday night we see an announcement that there is a Deal!
- Why 5:45PM????????
- Futures rally, oil drops
- This is just days after the market already surged after a Truth Social post last Thursday that said that the US will "soon" sign a deal with IRAN
---- That pushed up markets quite a bit too
- Buy the rumor and buy the news...
Reality Check
- Thursday: Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that “we have a deal that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.”
- Monday: 60-day period delay to continue discussions of nuclear issues
- Is there a sucker in all of this?
$ for IRAN
- Supposedly there i some deal...
- A $300 billion private fund designed ?to trigger investment into Iran is outlined in the U.S.-Iran framework agreement and more than half that sum has already been committed, a source with ?direct knowledge of the deal told Reuters.
- The fund is designed to give both sides an economic incentive to conclude a final deal, said the source, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the plan has not yet been announced as Washington and Tehran prepare to sign on Friday.
SpaceX
- IPO - Finally!
$135 per share - Rose to $160+/- on the debut day
- Rather smooth process and very orderly
- A total of $85B was raised - due to an add-on additional green-shoe that was allowed ($10B) for institutions.
- Rose another $20% on Monday
- Retail got about 20% of the deal (down from 30%)
Oracle
- Oracle Corp. shares declined after the company reported quarterly capital expenses that were higher than estimates, raising investor concerns about the profitability of the AI infrastructure business.
- The company expects to spend about $70 billion on net capital expenditures in the current fiscal year, and plans to raise another $40 billion in equity and debt.
- Oracle's cloud infrastructure business gained 93% to $5.8 billion, and total cloud revenue is projected to jump about 61% in the quarter ending in August.
- The increase of $5B over the course of the year was disconcerting to investors.
- Shares dropped the most in over 6 months on the news
CPI and PPI
- May CPI was mixed but generally cooler on the core reading, with headline CPI up 0.5% month-over-month, matching consensus, while Core CPI rose 0.2%, below the 0.3% consensus and below Briefing's 0.4% estimate.
- The softer core CPI reading suggests some easing in underlying consumer inflation pressures, which is the more constructive part of the inflation picture.
- May PPI was firmer than expected on the headline reading, with PPI up 1.1% versus 0.7% consensus and 0.8% Briefing estimate, matching the prior month's revised 1.1% pace.
- Core PPI rose 0.4%, matching consensus and coming in below the prior month's revised 0.7%, indicating wholesale inflation remained elevated but did not accelerate further on the core measure.
- Taken together, the CPI and PPI reports point to a mixed inflation backdrop: consumer-level core inflation looked somewhat better, but producer-level price pressures remained sticky.
Cyberdyne
- Anthropic announced Claude Fable 5, a Mythos-class model that will be available to its enterprise customers and paid subscribers.
- The company unveiled Mythos in April and has limited the rollout because of its advanced cybersecurity capabilities.
- Anthropic said Claude Fable 5?s broad release is possible because of new safeguards that block responses in specific high-risk areas.
- WAIT! The US government PULLED the plug on Mythos and Fable for any foreign national
- From Anthropic - The US government, citing national security authorities, has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States, including foreign national Anthropic employees. The net effect of this order is that we must abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all our customers to ensure compliance. Access to all other Anthropic models will not be affected.
OpenAi
- Confidentially flies for IPO
- Sends financials and IPO materials to regulators - making sue all in good order.
- This allows the company to iron out accounting, compliance, and regulatory issues in private without triggering a "media circus" or alerting competitors to their financials
Last Friday.....
- Nonfarm payrolls jumped a seasonally adjusted 172,000 for the period, down slightly from the upwardly revised 179,000 in April and far above the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 80,000.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and were up 3.4% over the past year, both in line with the Wall Street consensus.
Screwworm
- The New World screwworm has been detected in a 3-week-old calf in Zavala County, Texas, the first known case of that fly in the United States since 2017.
- New World screwworm larvae “burrow into the flesh of living animals, causing serious damage to livestock and economic losses,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture said.
- The USDA and Texas officials are taking immediate action to contain and eradicate the pest.
- In December, the Food and Drug Administration granted conditional approval to the topical solution Exzolt Cattle-CA1, which is used to prevent and treat New World screwworm infestations and is produced by Merck & Co.
- What is going to happen to beef prices?
Real Estate
- Nationwide, 5.8% of all home listings were pulled off the market in April, according to Redfin.
- Delistings were up 3.8% compared with March.
- Atlanta saw the highest share of homes come off the market in April, with 1 in 10 delisted. San Jose, California, followed with roughly 9% pulled, then Los Angeles (7.8%), Dallas (7.8%) and Seattle (7.7%).
In other news....
- The Japanese city of Utsunomiya has suspended all 94 of the primary and middle schools ?that it operates on Monday after its ?first-ever bear sighting, a municipal official said.
- The city of half-a-million residents about 100 km (60 miles) north of Tokyo said ?the bear was first seen in a residential ?area near a park on Saturday evening. It ?remains at large after the last sighting early ?Monday morning about half a kilometre from a ?middle school.

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1 hr 1 min
June 03DHUnplugged #805: Space Race
Another good month – investors are giddy.
Oil – CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball).
Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control.
A major name says they are reducing stocks – but are they really?
Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce (CRM).
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Another good month - investors are giddy
- Oil - CRITICALLY LOW inventory (Inside Baseball)
- Fed governor admits inflation is hard to control
- A major name says they are reducing stocks - but are they really?
- Announcing the Winner of the CTP for Salesforce
Markets
- Huge reversal in Software stocks
- A few names on the move - and moving BIG!
- SpaceX IPO - could drain markets
- More AI valuations through the roof
Pizza Mouth !
Reversal
- Software stocks bounced this week on strong results from Snowflake and Okta, which both recorded their best days on record.
- The results signal that investors may have been too quick to declare the end of software with the emergence of artificial intelligence.
- Even as AI displaces certain tools and job functions, many software companies continue to show growth, assisted by their own AI products.
- The iShares Expanded Tech-Software exchange-traded fund rose 8% this week and closed May up 21%, the best monthly performance for the ETF since October 2001.
- With this month’s rally, the iShares software ETF is only down 3.8% for the year, still badly trailing the Nasdaq, which has gained 18% in 2026.
Snowflake
- Amazon said Wednesday that its cloud division has landed a $6 billion spending commitment from Snowflake, which includes the use of the company’s custom silicon and chips for artificial intelligence.
- Snowflake’s purchase of services and technology from Amazon Web Services will occur over five years, according to a press release about the agreement.
- Snowflake intends to expand its use of Amazon’s Graviton general-purpose chips, as well as cloud-based graphics processing units for AI.
- Snowflake and Amazon are frenemies - they compete but also partner with each other.
- Stock up 36% on this news
DELL!!!!!!!!!!!!
- Dell Technologies Inc. shares surged due to an outlook for annual sales that far surpassed expectations on demand for servers that power artificial intelligence work.
- Revenue in the fiscal year ending in January 2027 will be about $167 billion, including $60 billion from the sale of AI servers, topping analysts’ average estimate of $142.1 billion.
- The company booked $24.4 billion in AI orders and generated $16.1 billion in AI server sales in the quarter ended May 1, with Chief Operating Officer Jeff Clarke saying “The AI opportunity shows no signs of slowing.”
- The shares surged 33% to $420.91 at the close Friday in New York, the biggest single-day increase in the more than seven years since the hardware maker returned to the public markets after a five-year hiatus as a private firm.
- Up 150% YTD
More Dell
- New XPS 13 at $699 targets price-sensitive market
- Aims to compete with MacBook Neo, lower-end Windows devices
- Launch amid global memory chip crunch to gain market share
- WINING OVER JCD:
-- 13.4-inch screen (very compact footprint)
Options: 2K / 2.5K LCD (120Hz)
OLED touchscreen (higher contrast)|
- Very thin bezels ? almost edge?to?edge screen
- Weighs 2.2 lbs - one of the lightes out there and a rival to Apple's Macbook Neo
Infighting
- OpenAI may release multi-chip AI software, challenging Nvidia's (NVDA) ecosystem advantage, according to The Information
- Oh, and NVDA is now releasing a CPU for PCs that is aggrevating Intel and AMD
Kaboom!
- Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket exploded in a massive fireball while undergoing a test on a Florida launchpad, dealing a major setback to the company.
- The explosion is the latest blow to New Glenn's reputation as a reliable alternative to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, and Blue Origin’s launch schedule is certain to suffer significant delays.
- The incident will also affect Amazon’s ambitions to build out its Leo satellite network and may delay Blue Origin's role in NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to send humans back to the moon.
- As important as it will be for Blue Origin to diagnose the cause of the rocket explosion, it could take many months to repair its launchpad in Florida.
Taking Down - Really?
- BlackRock Inc. is trimming its bet on stocks across its model-portfolio business as US equities surge to record highs following a strong earnings season.
- The firm cut its overweight position in equities from 3% to 1%, triggering billions of dollars of flows between BlackRock’s exchange-traded funds.
- BlackRock remains confident in equities and will maintain positions that bet on growing corporate profits, artificial intelligence and government spending, but is rotating away from longer-dated US debt in favor of global fixed-income and liquid alternatives.
Slight
- SpaceX is targeting a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion in its initial public offering, according to people familiar with the matter.
- The company is seeking to raise as much as $75 billion, which would make it the biggest IPO of all time, and is expected to start formal marketing of its IPO as soon as June 4.
-SpaceX had $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, and the company's pitch to investors shows its evolution into an AI services and infrastructure giant with a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion.
- 3-5% of the shares will be floated (TIGHT)
Strategy: keep supply constrained, which:
supports price discovery
maintains founder control
creates early scarcity dynamics
- - - SpaceX has reserved 5% of the shares ?in its planned initial public offering for certain employees and individuals selected by its executive officers, exempting them from post-IPO lock-up restrictions
AND.. Even more Valuations
- AI giant Anthropic is now worth more than OpenAI.
- Anthropic announced a $65 billion Series H financing at a $965 billion valuation, a round led by Altimeter Capital, Dragoneer, Greenoaks and Sequoia Capital.
- The financing puts its valuation above that of rival AI lab OpenAI.
- The valuation has TRIPLED since February
Let's GO!
- Shares of LG Electronics surged as much as 24% after the company announced a series of automotive innovations built with technology from Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
- The company said its new range of solutions is built on Android automotive operating systems. Its system can control multiple displays with different aspect ratios at the same time by using a single-on-chip, which is different from other conventional in-vehicle display systems, LG said.
- But 24% on this news?
- More reason that the KOSPI is moving higher
No One Care - But...
- Inflation has been above the 2% target for 5 years now
- Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Thursday that bringing down inflation in the U.S. remains his top priority, warning that consumer prices are still “much too high.”|
- Speaking to CNBC’s Kaori Enjoji at the Bank of Japan-IMES Conference, Kashkari said that the U.S. central bank would continue taking a “balanced approach” to its dual mandate of price stability and full employment.
- 5 YEARS!
---- What that tells us is that the Fed is totally unable to do anything about inflation .... Are we the only ones that see that?
Inside Baseball
- From a colegie that will go un-named.
--- Let's just say he is someone who knows what they are talking about and runs BIG money
----- This is what he said to me.....
- Apparently, oil execs were opining with POTUS in meetings yesterday that oil inventories are at alarmingly low levels and oil prices could soon skyrocket (I might soften that language a bit but they know the oil biz better than me) if SoH does not open soon.
- I ran a few numbers on total oil inventories including and excluding the SPR.
- Total supplies are 10th percentile vs history (although that includes a period when the SPR ramped from 0 to 600mln barrels in the 1980’s).
- Today it is 4th percentile if you start from 1990 when the SPR was basically full.
- The 4 week net and % draw the last 3 weeks are the largest draws of all time.
- And not surprising the 1 week net and % draw of the SPR are also the 2 largest draws of all time the last 2 weeks.
Surprised - No....
--- This is another story similar to what we saw a few months ago
- Taiwan prosecutors suspect that three individuals smuggled at least one shipment of Nvidia Corp. AI chips to China after first exporting them to Japan.
- The trio was detained for allegedly falsifying documents related to exports of Super Micro Computer Inc. servers containing advanced Nvidia chips, which the US has barred from sale to China without a license.
- Taiwan authorities seized about 50 servers for which they accuse the trio of preparing fraudulent export documents, but at least one shipment had already gone through Taiwan customs and made it to Hong Kong.
Under/Over?
- Tesla will be somehow folder/merged or taken over by SpaceX in an all stock deal
- Tesla market cap is $1.6 Trillion so that will be a tough one to take on as SpaceX is about equal in size.
---- If this happens, when ?
Mini Retirement - Is this a THING?
- A mini retirement is when you take a planned break from working, usually for a few months to a couple of years, instead of waiting until age 65+ to fully retire.
- Tim Feerris popularized this... (4 day workweek dude)
Step 1: Work & save aggressively
2–10+ years
Build a specific “freedom fund”
Step 2: Take time off
3 months to 2 years
Travel, recharge, pursue interests, or experiment with new ideas
Step 3: Return to work
Same career… or pivot to something new
Then repeat if desired.

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1 hr 3 min
May 27 DHUnplugged #804: Circular Bio-Economy
Oil Drops – Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years
Consumer Sentiment Drops again
New Fertilizer coming – Kinda Soilent Green vibe
Everyone is talking about SpaceX
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Warm-Up
- Oil Drops - Still highest cost for Memorial Day in years
- Consumer Sentiment Drops again
- New Fertilizer coming - Kinda Soilent Green Concept
- Everyone is talking about SpaceX
Markets
- Nothing Really Matters - Anyone can see - New HIGHS
- Governments picking the winners again
- CHIPS !
- Concentration
NVDA
- Over the weekend, Jensen Huang said that his forecast of a $200 billion market for CPUs includes China, signalling Nvidia still sees significant long-term demand in the market amid ongoing U.S.-China technology tensions.
- During an earnings call on Wednesday, Huang said Nvidia's new "Vera" central processors give it access to a new $200 billion market.
- So, once again the PR machine is running overtime to make sure there is no reason for anyone to sell the stock - needed to make this clarification over the weekend
- Nvidia has received licenses from the U.S. government to sell its H200 chips but has not received approval from Chinese officials who are fostering China's own chip suppliers.
Consumers
- Consumer sentiment has tumbled to a fresh record low in May as fears of higher prices grow due to the U.S.-Iran war and elevated oil prices, the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said Friday.
- The index of consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 from a preliminary reading of 48.2. It’s also well below the 49.8 level seen at the end of April.
Consumers Upset
South Korea
- Record after record...
- This is an impressive chart
- Two companies -Samsung and SK Hynix
-----40% of the entire KOSPI index's total market capitalization.
Kospi Index
Who Believes this Crap?
- U.S. forces have conducted “self defense” strikes in southern Iran early Tuesday, with U.S. Central Command saying that this was to “protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.“
- “U.S. Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” Hawkins added.
- Meanwhile there was some talk over the weekend that
--- 1) We are very close to a deal and it will happen soon
----2) We are in no rush for a deal
----3) How many times is this same line going to be used to try to push the price of oil down (it did move towards $90 after the weekend resumption of futures trading)
- Neither side can agree on anything... Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday that the United States has seen some progress towards a deal but that more work was required, while Iran's foreign ministry said the differences remained deep and significant.
- Tiresome
CEO of Ford
- Did you know -???
- The CEO of Ford (Jim Farley) is cousin to Chris Farley
Farley and Farley
Crops
- Farmers worldwide are under pressure due to the Iran war disrupting supplies of conventional nitrogen fertilizers, forcing them to improvise ahead of the fall planting season.
- Some farmers are turning to age-old solutions like manure, while others are experimenting with newer technologies, including waste-based inputs and microbial products.
-----Circular bio-economy
The crisis is giving fresh momentum to products that have long struggled to gain widespread adoption, with demand for biofertilizers and biostimulants rising and companies seeing rising interest and increased sales.
- Municipal wastewater and treated human urine, which contain high levels of nutrients that can be processed.
---- So, if your corn is a little extra yellow this summer - now you know...
Government's Hand
- Quantum computing shares popped last Thursday, as the U.S. government said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms operating in the space.
- IBM is the biggest beneficiary of the package, with the U.S. Commerce Department agreeing to give the firm $1 billion.
- Chipmaker GlobalFoundries is receiving $375 million, while other grant recipients D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion will be awarded $100 million.
- Shares of D-Wave added 33%, Rigetti soared 30% and Infleqtion skyrocketed about 31%.
- Funding will come from the 2022 Chips and Science Act.
More Money Throwing
- Nvidia Corp. bought $500 million worth of rights for shares in Corning Inc. as part of a partnership to expand artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- Corning pledged to increase US fiber production capacity by more than 50% to supply more optical fiber for AI data centers.
- The partnership includes Corning's plan to construct three new complexes in North Carolina and Texas, which is estimated to create more than 3,000 new US jobs.
DEBT
- Global debt hits new record, IIF (institute for International Finance) report shows
- Global debt rose for a fifth consecutive quarter in Q1 2026, increasing by more than $4.4 trillion to a record high of over $350 trillion, with the increase concentrated largely in the United States and China.
- Investors shows signs of shift away from Treasuries
- Global debt-to-GDP ratio stable around 305%
- NOTHING TO SEE HERE
Global Debt
More Charts
AI Reality?
- Starbucks retires AI tool nine months after North American deployment
- Tool was part of CEO Brian Niccol's campaign to fix product shortages
- AI tool miscounted items, leading to errors, Reuters has reported
Starbucks cites need for consistency, supply chain improvements in ending program
More AI
- Elon Musk's Grok is seeing minimal adoption in US government - even though it's cheap-
- Grok lags far behind OpenAI and other rivals that analysts call more capable
- Data shows uptake by corporations is also weak, suggesting Grok's problems stretch beyond government
- Is it possible that corps don't trust Musk after the way he heavy handled the DOGE process?
- Is this going to impact SpaceX growth story?
Employment and Ai
- The co-founder of AI company Anthropic said on Monday that the development of artificial intelligence cannot be left solely to technology companies, urging greater oversight from religious leaders, governments and civil society.
- Speaking at the presentation of Pope Leo's first encyclical, addressing the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, Chris Olah said there was "a real possibility" that AI will displace human labour "at very large scale".
Scared
- China is restricting overseas travel for top AI professionals in private firms, requiring them to get approval from relevant authorities before embarking on overseas travel.
- The government is targeting talent within the AI sphere, including startup founders, researchers, and executives, and adding individuals to the list based on assessments of their critical importance to the country.
- The restrictions risk undermining the ability of AI firms in China to recruit and retain talent, and may force engineers with global ambitions to choose between staying home or going abroad earlier in their careers.
CHIPS
- Micron topped a $1 trillion market value for the first time on Tuesday as shares popped 18%, driven by insatiable artificial intelligence demand for its memory chips.
- The stock surge came as UBS tripled its price target on the stock from $535 to $1,625 a share, citing long-term agreement opportunities with partially fixed pricing.
- “We believe the market will start to put a more ‘normal’ multiple on the stock and MU will continue to re-rate higher as more details emerge about the structural changes AI has driven to the entire memory complex,” the firm wrote.
SpaceX
- Lots of interest on this...
- Lots of clients calling on this and we are working on this for them
- Here is a bit of a reality check...
--- First - company still losing billions of dollars - some may look past that
- - Weird inclusion period for indices and that may take stock up due to required buying ahead of the inclusion (keeping a floor on prices in the beginning)
---- SpaceX plans to allow a large portion of its shares to become eligible for resale before the usual six-month restriction period post-IPO, under a staged system conditioned to the company's performance, a company filing shows.
- The approach, designed to avoid a large wave of shares hitting the market at once, would depart from the standard 180-day lock-up that has prevailed in the U.S. Most companies going public restrict early investors from selling shares to help stabilize the stock.
- Valuation somewhere between $1.5T and $2T (a year ago it was like $400 million)
- Valuation in December was $750 M
- Rationale for the big valuation: SpaceX is leveraging its satellite network to build massive, space-based AI data centers, which take advantage of limitless solar energy and off-planet cooling
Retail
- Ross Stores Inc. raised its sales and profit guidance after first-quarter results surpassed consensus estimates, aided by strong customer traffic among younger shoppers.
- The company reported sales of $6.01 billion and earnings of $2.02 per share, with same-store sales growing 17% in the period, a record for Ross.
- Ross now expects full-year same-store sales to grow 6% to 7%, and earnings of $7.50 to $7.74 per share, with executives citing increased customer traffic as a key driver of profit.
Meanwhile
- Walmart issued a worse-than-expected financial outlook amid soaring gas prices.
- Finance chief John David Rainey said high tax returns may have muted some of the impact high gas prices had on shoppers in the first quarter, indicating consumer pressures could rise in the current quarter
- The big-box retailer issued fiscal first-quarter results that beat Wall Street’s expectations on the top line but were only in line on the bottom.
- The retailer said it’s expecting adjusted earnings per share to be between $2.75 and $2.85, lower than expectations of $2.91, according to LSEG.
- Walmart said it anticipates net sales will rise between 3.5% and 4.5% for the year.
Ferrari - Electric
- Ferrari (RACE) is trading lower today after the company unveiled its first fully electric vehicle, the Ferrari Luce, marking a major strategic shift away from its traditional combustion-engine supercar identity.
- The Luce is a four-door, five-seat ultra-luxury EV developed with former Apple (AAPL) design chief Jony Ive, featuring a quad-motor setup producing over 1,000 horsepower, a 0--60 mph time of roughly 2.5 seconds, and a price tag around $640,000.
- Despite these headline-grabbing performance specs, investors reacted negatively because the design is seen as a sharp break from RACE's iconic styling, with many critics arguing it looks closer to a mass-market EV than a traditional Ferrari.
Saying goodbye
- One of America’s once-dominant beer brands is being discontinued after more than 175 years.
- Schlitz Premium, a beer brand that traces its roots to Milwaukee in the 1840s and was once among the largest breweries in the country, is being put "on hiatus," parent company Pabst Brewing Co. confirmed Friday after Wisconsin Brewing Company announced it would brew the brand’s final batch later this month.
- "Unfortunately, we have seen continued increases in our costs to store and ship certain products and have had to make the tough choice to place Schlitz Premium on hiatus," Zac Nadile, Pabst head of brand strategy, said in a statement to Milwaukee Magazine.
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