DHUnplugged #672: Surprises

Jobs report - a blowout.

Build the Wall (again).

Short squeeze - that was something.

What other surprises can the market ignore?

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Warm Up

- ROFL - Experts have no idea

- Strikes still coming

- Virginia is cold

- Building a Wall!

- Announcing the Winner of the CTP for NVDA

Market Update

- Employment Report Hot - Markets cave and then.....

- Next up on list of surprses - Israel conflict (odd market action - but explainable)

- Not a surprise - Fed gang talks down rate hike

- Once again - entering earnings season

- Even more potential strikes

JOBS

- U.S. employment increased by the most in eight months in September as hiring rose broadly, pointing to persistent labor market strength that could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to raise interest rates again, though wage growth is slowing.

- The larger-than-expected surge in nonfarm payrolls last month and sharp upward revisions to July and August's jobs counts reported by the Labor Department in its closely watched employment report on Friday cemented expectations that economic activity accelerated in the third quarter.

- Bond yields initially surged, then came back a bit - for whatever reason stocks surged late morning into the end of the day

- -  Bond yields came in a bit, but weird situation - still elevated. Looked like a short-cover extraordinaire initially

---- Here is other side of the thinking (bull camp (just keep investing)  - "With bond yields soaring, the dollar strengthening, and equity market volatility increasing there is a renewed tightening of financial conditions that does some of the work for the Fed, so it's not a done deal the Fed hikes rates again," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.

----------The broad increase in payrolls was led by the leisure and hospitality industry, which added 96,000 jobs. Restaurants and bars dominated, with 61,000 positions created, returning employment in the sector back to its pre-pandemic level.

Strike is On

- Tens of thousands of nurses and other healthcare workers launched a planned three-day strike at Kaiser Permanente facilities across the U.S. on Wednesday, after contract talks failed to meet the union deadline for reaching a settlement.

- Only going to get worse

- MORE-->  Pharmacy employees at some U.S. Walgreens stores, including pharmacists, technicians and support staff, plan a walkout this week - between Monday and Wednesday

- The walkout is in response to what pharmacy employees call burdensome prescription and vaccination expectations placed on pharmacists, the report said.

Tesla

- Needs to be in the news everyday - clearly this is a general plan by management

- Drops prices again after lower unit deliveries - stock ignores the reality

- Something weird with the stock recently...Way too much optimism (either manipulation/inside buying/something else?)

War - Israel and ...

- Big horrible situation in the Mid-East

- Oil surges on conflict

- Gaza strip cuttoff - ground offensive about to begin

- Quite the social media war going on - misinformation on parade

---- Sunday futures get knocked then markets  rally on Monday (see below)

Fed - Not Surprising

- Top ranking Federal Reserve officials indicated Monday that rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which directly influence financing costs for households and businesses, could steer the Fed from further increases in its short-term policy rate and substitute the work done by financial markets for formal monetary policy moves by the central bank.

- "We are in a sensitive period of risk management, where we have to balance the risk of not having tightened enough,