Wild ride for markets – election movers and groovers.
Fed dousing the fire a bit.
Inflation is still a thing.
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- Up and Down - Election Confusing Markets - What a wild ride - more to come
- CTP for Carvana will be closing out this coming Friday and that is it for 2024 - CTP Cup comes in December
- More hacks that no one cares about
- Another big bankruptcy
- Up and down - shine off that penny?
- Every pick / comment brings on new move
- Fed pours some cold water on markets
- Inflation - still a thing
- Something happening - only happened a few times in history
ANNOUNCEMENT : AH - Chili Competition Results - 3rd Place
Netflix - Jake Paul (27) and Mike Tyson (58)
- 60 million people "tried" to watch
- Glitches - system overload
- Jake Paul took it in a 8 round decision.
- Can you imagine if Netflix starts doing these live events with a $1 charge?
- Jake Paul got $40M and Tyson got $20M
- Palantir - Jumps after earnings and then announcing move to NASDAQ (Nov 26)
- As of last Friday - #1 performer in S&P 500 this year
- Up 48% MTD and 250% YTD
- Big move Friday was because it will qualify for NAZ 100 (QQQ) and lots of buying will need to be done
- Good for Peter: Thiel's Palantir holdings have increased in value by about $3.2 billion since the earnings report and $2 billion since the election.
- Here is company that we had for clients -bought low, sold higher, bought some more higher, sold on way down
- Super Micro - SMCI - was a darling for some time - then a few short sellers attacked - stock sold off
- Company decided to follow the other guys with 10-1 stock spilts - stock was as high as $1,200 per share pre split- now??? $21.75 ($217.50 comparable)
- Could be kicked out of NASDAQ
- Short -Sellers couldbe right - Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm.
--- UPDATE - Super Micro Computer secures BDO USA as lead auditor, targets key filings by early 2025 amid NASDAQ approval process (Stock up 25%)
- The stock market has done this only three times since January 1871
- The Shiller P/E ratio has reached a reading of 38 only three times during a bull market rally in 153 years. In December 1999, during the dot-com boom, the Shiller P/E peaked at a reading of 44.19. Meanwhile, in the first week of 2022, it very briefly lifted above 40.
- On most occasions, this heat needs to be cooled... It could take time as this is a slow moving ratio/indicator
- Another point - only a few times in history have we seen a market up 20% - 2 consecutive years.
--- Will it continue? History shows that this needs to cool off too - but that does not mean a crash is imminent.
- Russell 2000 was HOT right after the election.
- Day after it was up like 5%+++
- Hackers linked to a Chinese intelligence agency were able to breach T-Mobile as part of a months-long campaign to spy on the cellphone communications of high-value intelligence targets
- Last Wednesday, The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. cyber watchdog agency CISA said China-linked hackers have intercepted surveillance data intended for American law enforcement agencies after breaking into an unspecified number of telecom companies.
- Earlier in October, the Journal reported that Chinese hackers accessed the networks of U.S. broadband providers, including Verizon Communications, AT&T and Lumen Technologies, and obtained information from systems the federal government uses for court-authorized wiretapping.- Does anyone care? OR are we just okay with anyone having all of our information?
What is with the Nuke Talk?
- President Biden has given Ukraine the green light to use powerful American long-range weapons for strikes inside Russia, a U.S. official told NPR on Sunday.
- The missiles, known as the Army Tactical Missile System, or ATACMS, can travel about 190 miles. Their use would enable Ukrainian troops to strike Russia's weapons stockpiles, logistical centers and airfields — which could help stop Russian forces from advancing on the battlefield and attacking Ukrainian cities.
- This war going to end?
- All of a sudden US "allows" long range missiles to be used in Ukraine
- Vladimir Putin has approved changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, setting out new conditions under which the country would consider using its arsenal.
- The doctrine now says an attack from a non-nuclear state, if backed by a nuclear power, will be treated as a joint assault on Russia.
- Nvidia - The Information reported that NVDA's flagship AI GPU platform, Blackwell, is experiencing overheating issues when installed in high-capacity server racks, housings found in data centers that support many servers, routers, storage units, etc.
- Jim Cramer came out with a defense in that the report was done at a tie that NVDA can't respond because it is in a quiet period ahead of 11/20/2024 earnings. (meanwhile Jensen Huang is out on the road giving speeches - so not sure this defense holds water)
- Cramer also said Michael Dell is out with comments that they are still installing and that they know it is a hot operating environment that needs to be water cooled and cold conditions
- Inother words, Cramer is bullish - SURPRISE!
- Election beneficiary
- Elon seems to know how to properly manipulate a situation
- Been grabbing heaps of $ from government since the beginning - why stop now?
- What does Elon want? FSD:
--- Tesla shares jumped on Monday following a report that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is planning to make a federal framework to regulate self-driving vehicles a top priority for the U.S. Transport Department.
- AT LEAST THAT IS THE NEWS - TRUMP TRANSITION TEAM DID NOT VERIFY
- Department of Government Efficiency
- HARDY HAR HAR - big 5th grade belly laugh
- Musk and Vivek being put on (supposedly) to the DOGE committee (that does not exist as of yet) to cut government expenses
- Monday: Trump advisers and GOP lawmakers eye cuts to Medicaid, food stamps to fund tax cuts extension
- Jumps bigly after election - up 100% since election
- Up Up Up
- Bitcoin clears $93,000 for a bit, drops and then rocks back up
- Thoughts that it will be less regulation and who knows.
- Shares of vaccine makers fell on Thursday on reports that President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.
- The stocks fell in the final hour of trading as reports emerged about Trump's expected pick. Moderna's stock closed more than 5% lower on Thursday, shares of Novavax fell more than 7% and Pfizer's stock ended more than 2% lower.
- This is going to be interesting to watch - plenty of winners and losers going to happen
- Last Thursday - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates.
-"The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."
- The Fed is in a predicament - with tariffs and potential tax breaks, deregulation.
- All is good for growth - but the concern is that it will also spark inflation
- "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully."
- Markets are pricing in 0.25% cut in December - but it looks like the potential for a pause from there. (Wait and see)
- Does this sound like a company that is making big strides in AI?
- Last week, AMD said that it will lay off 4% of its global staff, as the longtime CPU maker seeks to gain a stronger foothold in the growing artificial intelligence chip space dominated by Nvidia.
- "As a part of aligning our resources with our largest growth opportunities, we are taking a number of targeted steps that will unfortunately result in reducing our global workforce by approximately 4%," an AMD representative said in a statement. "We are committed to treating impacted employees with respect and helping them through this transition."
- After years of financial losses and a failed merger attempt, Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.
- The low-cost carrier announced it has reached a deal with its bondholders to restructure its debts — and expects to continue flying as normal during the bankruptcy process. The airline says it will continue to honor all tickets, credits and loyalty points.
- "The most important thing to know is that you can continue to book and fly now and in the future," the Florida-based carrier said in an open letter to its customers.
- They need to say that as most people will be worried - but the fact is that this is standard procedure
- Bondholders will get big haircut and the common stock should be wiped out....
- AH is flying Spirit on Friday.....
- same pitch, modest beat and concern about the outlook
- Consumers are being more selective and looking at pricing
- Stock was up pre-market, but fell on reality
- Disney reported a nice quarter last week
- Revenue for the entertainment segment – which includes the traditional TV networks, direct-to-consumer streaming and films – increased 14% year over year.
- During Disney’s fiscal 2025, the company expects high-single-digit adjusted earnings growth compared with the prior fiscal year.
- Good performance this year as they are trying to clean up the massive problems they have had - bloated---However, there are still many that believe that DID has big problems long-term. (Stock up 25% YTD and 18% MTD)
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Earnings per share: $1.14 adjusted vs. $1.10 expected
Revenue: $22.57 billion vs. $22.45 billion expected
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday confirmed that a person contracted bird flu in a case linked to an outbreak that sickened thousands of birds in a Clackamas County commercial poultry operation.
- Public health officials declined to provide details about the person, name the operation or other details. They also said there is no evidence of bird flu spreading from person to person and the risk to the public is low.
- Rudy Giuliani has relinquished dozens of watches and a Mercedes once owned by movie star Lauren Bacall to two former Georgia election workers who won a $148 million defamation judgment, his lawyer said.
-Joseph Cammarata said in a letter filed late Friday in Manhattan federal court that the trove of watches and a ring were delivered by FedEx to a bank in Atlanta, Georgia, in the morning.
-The 1980 Mercedes-Benz SL 500 was turned over at an address in Hialeah, Florida, and an undisclosed amount of funds from Giuliani’s Citibank accounts were also surrendered to the two women who won the judgment, according to the letter.
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ANNOUNCING
The Closest to The Pin - Carvana (CVNA)
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