DHUnplugged Podcast

A torn Meniscus - that is what they say... now what?

The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?

Black in packaging - byproduct of war

Markets - - Up up and away!

- New inflation data is in...

- The Circular Economy - Great chart....

- Some inflation facts

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- Torn Meniscus - that is what they say... now what?

- The beginning of UBI as a response from the AI boom?

- Black in packaging - byproduct of war

- Insights into consumer confidence reports

Markets

- Up up and away!

- New inflation data is in...

- The Circular Economy - Great chart....

- Some inflation facts

- From the TACO trade to the NACHO trade

The new CTP for Salesforce is open for entries!

From TACO to NACHO

- Not A Chance Hormuz Opens

- - New phrase being used in the oil pits and trading floors

Life Support

- President Trump tells reporters that ceasefire with Iran is on "massive life support"; says Iran's peace proposal was a "piece of garbage"

Going to CHYNA

- President Donald Trump has invited executives from some of the biggest U.S. companies — including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg — to join his trip to China this week, according to a White House official.

- Also expected to join Trump’s delegation for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping are Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman, Cargill’s Brian Sikes, Citigroup’s Jane Fraser, Coherent’s Jim Anderson, GE Aerospace’s H. Lawrence Culp Jr., Goldman Sachs’s David Solomon, Illumina’s Jacob Thaysen, Mastercard’s Michael Miebach, Meta Platforms executive Dina Powell McCormick, Micron Technology’s Sanjay Mehrotra, Qualcomm’s Cristiano Amon and Visa’s Ryan McInerney, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the list has not been announced.

- Jensen Huang supposedly not invited

Inflation Report Today

- Total CPI increased 0.6% month-over-month in April, as expected, following a 0.9% increase in March. That left total CPI up 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.3% in March.

- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, jumped 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.2% increase in March. That left core - CPI up 2.8% year-over-year versus 2.6% in March.

----Key Factors

- The food index was up 0.5% month-over-month and up 3.2% year-over-year.

- The energy index was up 3.8% month-over-month and up 17.9% year-over-year.

- The shelter index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 3.3% year-over-year.

- The used cars and trucks index was flat month-over-month and down 2.7% year-over-year.

- The apparel index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 4.2% year-over-year.

- The services index was up 0.6% month-over-month and up 3.4% year-over-year (services less rent of shelter was up 3.5% year-over-year).

- The all items index less food, shelter, and energy was up 0.2% month-over-month and up 2.3% year-over-year.

Consumer Confidence

- Surging gas prices due to the Iran war sent consumer sentiment to a new low in the early part of May, according to a University of Michigan survey Friday.

“Taken together, consumers continue to feel buffeted by cost pressures, led by soaring prices at the pump,” the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu, said.

- The latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for May came in at 48.2, below the 50.5 consensus estimate and below the prior 49.8 final reading for April.

---Note: Conference board's consumer confidence reading was actually better than last month so there is a discrepancy in reports.

- Conference Board measure as highly important because it is widely followed and often tied closely to labor-market perceptions, while the Michigan survey is also closely watched for inflation-sensitive consumer attitudes.

Thwarted!

- Google’s Threat Intelligence Group said hackers are using AI models such as OpenClaw to uncover and exploit zero-day software vulnerabilities.

- GTIG said it has “high confidence” that it recorded hackers using an AI model to find and exploit a zero-day vulnerability, or a software flaw unknown to developers, creating a way to bypass two-factor authentication.

-The group said in a report that it had uncovered and likely thwarted an AI-developed attack.

- Anthropic delayed its Mythos model rollout due to cybersecurity concerns, but current models are being used by hackers.

- How are we going to stop the hackers from using powerful AI models to hack?

Circular Economy

- Great Graphic

Circular

Always Money to be made...

- US derivatives exchange CME Group Inc. and index provider Silicon Data are teaming up to create a futures market for computing power.

- The futures will help traders, financial firms, AI builders and cloud providers manage volatility and price swings, according to a statement.

- CME CEO Terry Duffy said compute is "the new oil of the 21st century" and creating a futures market can help make the costs more transparent.

----- One more way to pump this as now there is ways to further inflate costs through a leveraged futures market

Private Credit Transparency?

- Faster mark-to-market plans

- Apollo Global Management Inc. has been stepping up efforts to provide liquidity and price transparency in the private-credit market, where assets don’t typically change hands.

- Last week, the firm said more than $830 billion of its credit assets will be priced daily by the end of September. "

- Others in the industry are not so happy about this.

- Most say that this is little more that lipstick on a pig

No Problem

- Congress is looking to suspend the federal gas tax for a few months

- Trump backing

- $0.18 per gallon tax in a effort to reduce gas prices that are now approx $4.40 average per gallon higher than before the war

- War not changed, Iran still stringing us along.

- Under/Over how long it will take until next Ceasefire bombings start?

- Will a sprinkle of warfare prior to China visit be in the cards as a show of strength?

AI Jobs

- Kevin Hassett says that AI isn't costing anybody their jobs rights now

- EVEN THOUGH TECH CONTINUES LAYOFFS

- Why bother even listening to these guys?

- Major deep discussion on this on TDI Podcast this week

-- WORTH THE LISTEN

Asian Markets

- Continuing to brush off any worries about oil prices, escalation or valuations that are in the stratosphere

- Korea - as we discussed this would be the case is up a staggering 78% last year and already up 81% this year

- Market cap has increased $2.7 trillion over the past year

- The massive wealth increase has been heavily concentrated. Tech giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounted for the vast majority of the gains, with individual rallies of up to 382% over the year.

Strange

- The retail trades added nearly 22,000 jobs in April, accounting for almost one-fifth of total job growth.

- In March, retailers posted their largest number of monthly job openings since 2023.

- Retailers are more confident after seeing consumers keep their wallets open in the face of an uncertain economy and higher gas prices.

- Nearly 15.5 million employees now hold retail industry jobs, the most since July 2024.

- What is strange is the UMich confidence hit another all-time low last Friday for the latest prelim reading for the month

ANALlysts

- The earnings upgrades for tech are not just incremental

- Examples:

-  Seagate Tech target raised to $1000 from $750 at Evercore ISI, cites HAMR-driven multi-year HDD growth, pricing power, and strong AI/data center demand backdrop

- AMD - Goldman Sachs upgraded to Buy and raised its price target dramatically (e.g., to $450 from $240). Other firms like Bernstein (to $525), Barclays, KeyBanc, TD Cowen, and Baird also hiked targets significantly (many by $200+)

- Several other names upgrades with big ranges of price increases

UBI Starting...?

- South Korea should consider institutional ways to redistribute potential excess tax revenue generated by the AI infrastructure boom to help ease inequalities that could deepen in an AI-driven era, a top presidential policy aide said.

- President Kim proposed the principle, tentatively named a “national dividend,” underlining that gains from AI infrastructure should be understood as the product of South Korea’s collectively built industrial foundation.

- In his Facebook post on Monday, Kim explained that "the central question of the AI era is not simply about growth rates, but about how to socially stabilize excess profits."

Black ink

- Calbee to switch its brightly colored packaging to black and white because war has disrupted supply of certain raw materials used in ink

- Calbee, whose potato chip brands in particular are known for brightly colored bag designs, said 14 of its products would switch to monochrome branding by the end of May.

- Printing ink requires naphtha, an oil derivative for which Japan relies on imports from the Middle East for about 40% of its consumption.

Black Ink Printing

HantaVirus

- Tristan da Cunha, home to only around 200 people, is halfway between South Africa and South America. It is the world's remotest inhabited island, more than 2,400 km and a six-day boat ride from St Helena, its nearest inhabited neighbor.

- It usually relies on a medical team of two people for its health needs, and is normally only accessible by boat as it has no airstrip.

- A British man was dropped from the death ship was there and has the symptoms - so "out of an abundance of caution...."

- "The arrival of paratroopers, medical personnel and medical supplies from the sky has hopefully reassured the people of Tristan da Cunh

Good overall earnings season - still going strong

Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough

Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam

Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines

Markets

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- Good overall earnings season - still going strong

- Economic reports show a mixed picture - but still good enough

- Semi-annual earnings report option gaining steam

- Saying goodbye to Spirit Airlines

- EGGS - Breaking News!

Markets

- Are markets riding tariff refund wave?

- Oil shoots up then slips back after Iran tensions rise and fall

- New Highs - NAZ100 powering ahead

- Huge Capex and OBBBA

NEED A NEW CTP

- CMG (last time was 2017)

Ship Sailing

- Seems that under the protection of the USA - a Maersk ship passed through the Strait

- But how many can they do a day like this?

- Oil down after a huge spike yesterday due to IRAN striking UAE

Big Shakeup

- US transportation stocks plunged after Amazon announced expanded logistics offerings that will turn it into a major competitor for parcel carriers and air freight companies.

- The move is a threat not just to other couriers' grasp on e-commerce, but potentially to more profitable areas such as healthcare, which UPS and FedEx have made a central part of their strategies.

- Amazon will offer freight, distribution and fulfillment, and parcel shipping to standalone customers, and its announcement "could be a watershed moment for North American freight transportation companies," according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker.

- FedEx Corp. shares fell 9.1% in their worst day in more than a year, while rival United Parcel Service Inc. dropped more than 10%.

-- Logistics firms Forward Air Corp. and GXO Logistics Inc. suffered double-digit declines. Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., among other truckers, slid almost 7%.

--- FYI - Did you know... last year there was a total of 23.9 BILLION packages shipped in the US. 25% was delivered by Amazon, Fed and UPS delivered a third.

Off the Hook - Chump Change

- Elon Musk agreed to pay $1.5 million to settle Securities and Exchange Commission allegations that he cheated Twitter shareholders by failing to properly disclose his growing stake in the social media company.

- An Elon Musk revocable trust would pay the penalty to end the SEC’s lawsuit, which is still subject to court approval, and Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations.

- The SEC said the deal would be the largest penalty the agency has levied against an entity or individual for allegedly failing to file a beneficial ownership report on time, but Musk’s attorney called it a “small fine”.

- Musk didn’t admit to the regulator’s allegations, according to a filing on Monday.

This could be something...

- Sonos Inc. shares climbed after reporting revenue that jumped 8% and said that it is filing for tariff refunds totaling $40 million.

- The company reported second quarter revenue of $282 million, up 8% year over year, and strong growth in international markets.

- Sonos is forecasting adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $20 million and $48 million for the current quarter

- Are markets riding higher also on the tariff refunds?

---- The US government is paying back up to $166 billion in revenue it collected through sweeping global tariffs that were struck down by the Supreme Court in February, with the first payments set to go out on May 11.

AND

- General Motors raised its 2026 guidance after significantly beating Wall Street’s first-quarter earnings expectations following a roughly $500 million benefit from the U.S. Supreme Court decision to terminate and refund certain levies AKA - tariffs.

OPEC?

- In an unexpected announcement - The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC on May 1, in a major blow to the cartel that coordinates production among many of the world’s largest oil producers, particularly those in the Middle East.

- OPEC+ to raise June output quotas by 188,000 bpd

- Most members cannot meet targets due to Hormuz closure

- Quota increase removes UAE share after it left OPEC+ and OPEC (so just a make-up)

- Meanwhile, they cannot meet the iutput as no place to put the oil....

--- This all looks and sounds good but there is no substance.

---- Saudi Arabia produces 10 million barrels a day (Biggest in OPEC). USA produces 13 Million ....

Spirit Airlines

- Goodbye - shutdown Saturday night at 3PM

- The administration had floated a last-ditch bailout that would have given the federal government a controlling stake in the airline, but the proposal stalled amid resistance from key creditors, whose approval would have been required for the deal to go through.

- Meanwhile, most ticket holders will get refunds.

--- Already Jetblue and others are looking to fill the void by offering more flights from airports that Spirit serviced.

-- Takes a low cost alternative off the market and potentially will be a negative for consumers - less competition - WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT BIDEN ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT BY BLOCKING JETBLUE MERGER

JC - are you listening??

- Duolingo beats Q1 revenue estimates, driven by 21% growth in paid subscribers

- CFO Gillian Munson says investments target long-term user retention

- Duolingo aims for 100 million daily active users by 2028

- Guided a bit lower and a strategy shift toward prioritizing user experience and long-term retention over near-term monetization, as it invests in product quality and engagement to build a larger base of paying subscribers. (DUMB?)

- Share down 8%

CHIPS

- Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and beating analysts’ estimates on the explosive growth of its chip business.

-  Revenue: 133.9 trillion Korean won ($89.96 billion) vs. 132.69 trillion won expected

- Operating profit: 57.2 trillion won vs. 55.28 trillion won expected

- The South Korean technology giant’s quarterly profit climbed more than 750% from a year earlier to a fresh record.

- The company also posted record revenue, up about 70% year over year.

AMD Reports

Conf Call: AMD paired strong current-quarter execution with a more ambitious long-term AI and server CPU outlook. The biggest positives were the stronger EPYC trajectory, rising confidence in MI450/Helios demand, and the upgraded server CPU TAM view.

- The company now sees the server CPU TAM growing more than 35% annually to over $120 billion by 2030, up from its prior long-term view.

- The main caution points were second-half PC and Gaming demand pressure from higher memory and component costs.

- Margins 55%

- Stock up 15% AH

Apple Chips Deal?

- Apple Inc. has held exploratory discussions with Intel Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. about producing main processors for its devices in the US, as a secondary option beyond Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

- The discussions with Intel and Samsung are preliminary and have not resulted in any orders, with Apple having concerns about using non-TSMC technology.

- Apple is considering additional suppliers due to supply-chain disruptions, including recent shortages driven by the build-out of AI data centers and higher demand for Macs, with CEO Tim Cook saying the company has less flexibility in the supply chain than normal.

- Discussions - yet Intel up 14% on the  news (after a 100% run in April)

Flashback - 2 weeks

- Remember when OpenAi came out with some news that they missed revenue and user growth goals?

- Took down tech for a day a couple of weeks ago....

Tech earnings

- Overall tech earnings were solid.

- Bbig takeaway is that the group (MAG7) are still spending a buttload on expansion into AI etc. Capex $$$$

- Meta was hit on theor outlook (which is why they came back and announced further layoffs)

AI Layoffs

- Recall - "AI will not take jobs"

- More announced this week - Coinbase today

- How long until the robots take over?

- Recent Announcements

AI Job Cuts

EGGS

- Consumption of eggs is associated with a lower risk of being diagnosed with Alzheimer's Disease for those 65 years and older, according to researchers at Loma Linda University Health

- Eating one egg per day for at least five days a week reduces risk of Alzheimer’s by up to 27%, researchers found.

--- More: Eggs are known to be a source of key nutrients that support brain health. Sabaté said. Eggs provide choline, a precursor to acetylcholine and phosphatidylcholine, both of which are critical for memory and synaptic function, the study stated. Eggs also contain lutein and zeaxanthin—carotenoids that accumulate in brain tissue and are associated with improved cognitive performance and reduced oxidative stress. Eggs also contain key omega-3 fatty acids, and yolks are particularly rich in phospholipids, which constitute nearly 30% of total egg lipids and are essential for neurotransmitter receptor function.

LIV Losing Saudi Arabia

- LIV Golf will lose its financial backing from Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund after the 2026 season, the fund announced Thursday.

- "PIF has made the decision to fund LIV Golf only for the remainder of the 2026 season," a representative for the PIF, Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told ABC News on Thursday.

- "The substantial investment required by LIV Golf over a longer term is no longer consistent with the current phase of PIF's investment strategy," the statement continued. "This decision has been made in light of PIF's investment priorities and current macro dynamics.

...

All-time highs - SP500 up 9% MTD - NAS100 even more

Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched

All tech right now (Example Monday Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%)

Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy

The new "Blockchain" , "SPAC", "MEME" that is pushing stocks

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- HUGE MOVES - All from Tweets

- Earnings seasons - banks did goooood

-- Earnings season - carrot ahead of next week when the tech giants report (lots of bulls on this)

- A belated 420 day to all you stoners out there! Grab a gummy, come back in about 45 minutes and listen - show will be much better...

- Tariff refunds now available

Markets

- All-time highs - SP500 up 9% MTD - NAS100 even more

- Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched

-- All tech right now (One day Equal Weighted up 0.33%, SP500 down 0.35%,) - Equal weight up 4.5% MTD, S&P up 9%

- Worried about No More Mr. Nice Guy ? - Seems like Trump is bored with the Iran thing...

- The new "Blockchain" , "SPAC", "MEME" that is pushing stocks

Announcing the Winner of the Closest to the Pin for NetGear...

Open /Closed

- Straits of Hormuz closed again, and again

- The brief opening allowed for a cruise ship to sneak through last week.

- Celestyal Discovery, a 1,360-guest vessel operated by Greece-based Celestyal Cruises, departed Port Rashid in Dubai, U.A.E., on April 17 at 11:36 a.m. local time, becoming the first cruise ship known to exit the strait since the crisis began earlier this year.

- No passengers aboard - aside from Captain and Crew.

- - That must have been a pretty scary passing....

OIL

- Oil hovering in the $80-$90 range for a while, now topping $100

- WTI and Brent flipped back to the normal relationship

- UAE leaving OPEC - (accounts for 12% of OPEC and 4% of global oil)

---- They need more flexibility and there seems to be a rift  with Saudi Arabia and others as they have not been protected

-- China! China to begin exporting jet fuel, diesel and gasoline - DOES THIS MEAN PRICED IN YUAN?

Economics

- Retail sales up more than expected.

- Some is due to the high cost of gas - but stripping out gas prices - still beat expectations

- How do we square this with the UMich at all-time lows?

Consumer Confidence

Retail Sales YoY

Chips

- MRVL Shares jumped more than 7% after a report by The Information said the company is in talks with Google to build two new AI chips.

- AVGO (Broadcom) dipped as they had a deal announced prior and this seems to have watered down some of the importance.

- Fast forward a few days and then we see a story about OpenAi missing user and revenue projections. Commentary about concern that if they do not meet their numbers, may not have enough money to fund all the build-outs they promised. (Lots of names dropping on this concern)

Tim Apple

- Apple announces that Tim Cook will become executive chairman of Apple's board of directors and John Ternus, senior vice president of Hardware Engineering, will become Apple's next chief executive officer effective on September 1, 2026.

- Ternus joined Apple's product design team in 2001 and became a vice president of Hardware Engineering in 2013. He joined the executive team in 2021 as senior vice president of Hardware Engineering. Throughout his tenure at Apple, Ternus has overseen hardware engineering work on a variety of groundbreaking products across every category. He was instrumental in the introduction of multiple new product lines, including iPad® and AirPods, as well as many generations of products across iPhone®, Mac®, and Apple Watch.

- Ternus's work on Mac has helped the category become more powerful and more popular globally than at any time in its 40-year history.

Prior to Apple, Ternus worked as a mechanical engineer at Virtual Research Systems. He holds a bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.

Mo Money - Vendor Financing

- Anthropic to secure up to 5 gigawatts (GW) of current and future generations of Amazon's Trainium chips to train and power their advanced AI models.

- Anthropic's Claude Platform available on AWS, providing their full AI developer experience in one place.

- Amazon to invest $5 bln in Anthropic today and up to an additional $20 bln in the future.

Operation Vaccu Suck

- AST SpaceMobile — Shares fell 15% after a satellite launched  was placed into the wrong orbit.

- The company said in a release it expects the cost of the satellite to be recovered by an insurance policy, and it still plans to conduct orbital launches once every month to two months in 2026.

- DH Space Cleanup - this is going to be huge. Like the Spaceballs Mega Maid Scene - goes from suck to blow. Mega maid cleaning up space trash - Operation Vaccu Suck

Fed Chair Nominee

- Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh told Senate hearing that Fed must stay independent and "stay in its lane"

- Opening statement (Senate) : "I do not believe the operational independence of monetary policy is particularly threatened when elected officials—presidents, senators, or members of the House—state their views on interest rates. Central bankers must be strong enough to listen to a diversity of views from all corners.

- But the actual confirmation may still be stuck until the lawsuit against Powell is dropped (Which it seems is in process)

Drugs man...

- Compass Pathways — The biotechnology company surged nearly 25% after President Donald Trump signed an executive order that directs his administration to speed up reviews of psychedelic drugs.

- Compass is conducting studies of psychedelics to create drugs for treatment-resistant depression and PTSD.

HOW?

- A refund system for businesses that paid tariffs which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump imposed without the constitutional authority to do so is scheduled to launch Monday.

- Importers and their brokers will be able to begin claiming refunds through an online portal beginning at 8 a.m., according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, the agency administering the system.

- It’s the first step in a complicated process that also might eventually lead to refunds for consumers who were billed for some or all of the tariffs on products shipped to them from outside the United States.

SUBS Emerging

- Sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s has confidentially filed for an IPO.

- - Blackstone bought a majority stake in the sandwich chain in 2024 in a deal that valued the company at roughly $8 billion.

- - - With more than 3,000 locations nationwide, Jersey Mike’s is the second-largest hoagie sandwich chain in the U.S.

-- Did some research - typical franchisee makes about $100-$200k per store.

----- Initial cost to get store going ~ $700k (3-7 year make-good on initial investment plus risks)

NEW Stock MOVER

- SPACS were HOT - now by all accounts one of the worst performance groups EVER

- AI Pivot

- - - Not sure this has legs like some of the ones in the past...

- Myseum shares more than doubled after the social media firm became the latest company to refocus efforts on artificial intelligence.

-----Shares of Myseum, which has been renamed Myseum.AI, will still trade under the MYSE ticker

- The New Jersey-based company announced Wednesday that it would change its name to Myseum.AI amid a concentration on integrating AI into its platforms like Picture Party and DatChat. Myseum will use AI agents to manage personal media in a way that adapts to users’ preferences while also maintaining privacy, the company said.

- Allbirds’ shares during the previous session after the struggling shoemaker announced a pivot to AI (Went from $3 to $24 and now $11)

Crypto News

- Charles Schwab is rolling out crypto trading, allowing clients to buy bitcoin and ether in the coming weeks.

- The move places the brokerage in direct competition with Robinhood and Coinbase, both of which tend to serve younger clients and offer commission-free trading on stocks (but still carry a fee on crypto).

- Schwab is the latest example of increasing crypto acceptance by traditional financial firms that previously were waiting on the sidelines to launch crypto offerings. (Only Ether and Bitcoin)

-- Stock was down on this news an some earnings hangover (8% from recent high)

- Robinhood and Coinbase had some selling on the news too....

OpenAi - Nastyness

- Sam Altman is seeking the dismissal of punitive damages claims in his sister's civil lawsuit accusing the OpenAI co-founder and chief executive of repeated sexual abuse more than two decades ago, an accusation he denies.

- Annie Altman accused her brother of sexually abusing and raping her between 1997 and 2006 at the family home in suburban Clayton, Missouri, starting when she was three and he was 12. She said the "last acts of sexual abuse and rape" occurred when Sam Altman was an adult. He is now 40.

- Sam Altman is countersuing his sister for defamation over her posts, including a video that said "an almost tech billionaire" molested her. (He is seeking $1)

Other Strange

- FBI Director Kash Patel filed a defamation lawsuit against the Atlantic and its reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick following the publication of an article on Friday alleging the director had a drinking problem that could pose a threat to national security.

- The magazine's story, initially titled “Kash Patel's Erratic Behavior Could Cost Him His Job," cited more than two dozen anonymous sources expressing concern about Patel’s “conspicuous inebriation and unexplained absences” that “alarmed officials at the FBI and the Department of Justice.”

- The lawsuit, filed in U.S....

All-time highs - SP500 up 8% MTD - NAS100 even more

Balanced risk - up or down from here is evenly matched

JCD could not make it tonight - back for some more tests....

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

PCE and inflation trends - single day concern

Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM

Eco Reports of historic proportion

Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- Walking back - Waffling and Extensions

--- Blockade - not really

- Market Immunity

- Jesus.ai

- Reading Retreats (The New Silent Disco?)

Markets

- PCE and inflation trends - single day concern - PPI revised

- Earnings Season - Goldman, JPM

- Historic Eco Report

- Feds looking at Private Credit holdings at banks

CONGRATS RORY! - back-to-Back Masters Champ

- Over $250M in tour winnings

Market Update

- Great week for markets as Operation obliteration is postponed

- - Weekend concerns and opening in the RED Monday as we get clarification

- Markets somewhat immune? Looking past?

- FWIW: Not much is moving thought the Straight....But who cares!

----- Markets made back all of the losses from the War! Nothing to worry about...

Historic!

- As of this month, we have officially hit a new historical floor.

- The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for April 2026 came in at 47.6, which is the lowest recorded value in the survey’s 70-plus-year history.

Consumer Sentiment

Fed Looking

- The Federal Reserve is asking major US banks for details about their exposure to private credit due to a surge in redemptions and a rise in troubled loans in the industry.

- The Fed's queries are intended to assess the level of stress in the private credit industry and the potential for it to spill over to the wider financial system.

- The Treasury Department is also questioning the insurance industry about exposures to private credit, as part of a broader regulatory push to get a handle on the scale of the strains in the $1.8 trillion private credit industry.

ECO - PPI

- PPI: Rose 0.5% month-over-month in March, well below the 1.2% consensus expectation

-  Follows a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in February (from 0.7%)

Core PPI (excluding food and energy):

- Increased 0.1% in March, below the 0.4% consensus expectation

- Follows a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in February (from 0.5%)

--- Market talk:

-- -  Final demand services were unchanged, giving markets room to look through the energy-driven spike as likely temporary

Meanwhile...

- Dow Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. are among the companies boosting prices for plastics as the sector grapples with supply shocks from the US-Israeli war on Iran.

- The company said Monday that it will raise prices for North American buyers of polyethylene resins — common plastics found in packaging, films and containers — through at least May, according to a document viewed by Bloomberg.

- That increase includes a 30-cent-per-pound boost for April and plans for another 20-cent-per-pound hike next month, according to the notice.

Blockade

- President Donald Trump said the US will begin a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to retaliate in the event of Iranian resistance.

-The US and Iran failed to reach a deal in direct talks in Pakistan due to differences over the nuclear issue, according to Trump.

--- At first, it was a FULL blockade - then another walk-back (or is this just politics vs reality?)

- The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, according to US Central Command.

Goldman Earnings

- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $17.55 per share, $1.08 better than the FactSet Consensus of $16.47; revenues rose 14.4% year/year to $17.23 bln vs the $16.99 bln FactSet Consensus.

- Net revenues in Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities were $4.01 billion, 10% lower than the first quarter of 2025, reflecting lower net revenues in FICC intermediation, due to significantly lower net revenues in interest rate products and mortgages and lower net revenues in credit products, partially offset by significantly higher net revenues in commodities and currencies.

- Provisions for the first quarter of 2025 primarily reflected net provisions related to the credit card portfolio, which was transferred to held for sale in the fourth quarter of 2025.

--- Goldman is cleaning up and selling off some of the credit card portfolio (Apple Card)

---- We discussed that analysts had been raising guidance for companies into the print. GS rallied 16% since March - so maybe just sell-the-news event

Stocks: Earnings

- Goldman Sachs downgraded Best Buy to a sell, and the stock dropped about 4% on the news.

--- Goldman’s view is that while Best Buy should get a short?term boost in the first quarter—helped by people pulling forward PC purchases and getting bigger tax refunds—that strength may not last.

--------According to the analysts, once higher memory costs start working their way into laptop and computer prices, sales could come under pressure after Q1.

Blackrock Call

- Asset management giant BlackRock has raised its outlook for U.S. stocks, reasoning that contained impacts from the Iran war and strong corporate earnings will create a favorable backdrop.

- With earnings season just getting underway, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a collective 12.6% profit increase for the first quarter.

- But do we care what Blackrock says? Long only shop with $14T in ETFs

Stocks: Monday/Tuesday

-----Cruise line stocks were under pressure as higher energy costs and renewed concerns about demand came back into focus. Carnival dropped about 4%, Norwegian Cruise Line was down roughly 3%, and Royal Caribbean slid more than 2%.

-----Airlines moved lower for similar reasons. Rising jet fuel prices and softer demand expectations weighed on the group, with United Airlines falling more than 2.5%, while Southwest and Delta both declined around 2%.

--Tuesday - Follow through getting us at/above pre-war levels

Stocks: Mattress Consolidation:

- Leggett & Platt jumped about 9% after announcing it will be acquired by Somnigroup International, a bedding manufacturer. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at roughly $2.5 billion, and it’s expected to close by the end of 2026.

----Mattress Monopoly Now? Adding to  - Tempur Sealy, Mattress Firm, Dreams

Stocks - Upgrades

- Toll Brothers, Pultegroup

— Shares of both stocks rose more than 1% after Evercore ISI upgraded the two homebuilders to outperform.

- - The investment firm said it’s time to buy the dip in the companies, believing the bad news is already priced in and that both Toll Brothers and Pultegroup could manage macroeconomic headwinds better than some of their peers.

Pope Leo

- WEAK on crime and terrible for Foreign Policy say President Trump

-- Is the Pope involved in criminal /  police issues ?

Jesus Update

- Aside from the Jesus imagery with Trump as Jesus this weekend (Trust social post - then deleted)

- At $1.99 per minute, the tech company Just Like Me is taking that concept to talk to Jesus to a new level.

-----Users of the platform can join video calls with an avatar of Jesus generated by artificial intelligence.

------- Like other religious AI tools on the market, it offers words of prayer and encouragement in various languages.

----------With the occasional glitch, it remembers previous conversations and speaks through not-quite-synced lips.

Reading Retreats

- What it is: Paid reading retreats where people travel to quiet, upscale settings to read their own books—mostly in silence—alongside strangers.

- The price: Typically $1,000+ for a long weekend, often selling out months in advance.

- Why it works: People are burned out by screens and distractions and are paying for structure, silence, and protected time to focus.

- Social without pressure: It offers light community—being alone together—without forced conversation or networking.

- Cultural tailwinds: Fueled by BookTok, wellness travel, and nostalgia for slower, analog experiences, turning reading into a premium lifestyle activity.

Of Interest

- Delta Air Lines said Wednesday it will “meaningfully reduce” its capacity growth plans in the near term. AFTER BULLISH COMMENTS DAYS EARLIER

- Delta joined United and JetBlue in hiking its checked bag fees this week as jet fuel costs surge. PRICE WILL NEVER COME DOWN

- Delta said its fuel bill will be $2 billion higher this quarter because of the spike in costs.

- The carrier also reported first-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ expectations. BY THE WAY>>>>>

JAYNA - AKA China

- China’s factory?gate prices rose 0.5%, the first increase in more than three years.

-  Consumer prices increased 1% year over year in March, falling short of economists’ expectations.

- Gasoline prices jumped 11.1% from the prior month, even as Beijing tried to limit fuel price increases.

- Economists warn the spike in input costs could lead to “bad inflation,” putting added pressure on manufacturers that are already operating with thin margins.

Health Breakthrough

- Revolution Medicines said its pancreatic cancer drug daraxonrasib succeeded in a Phase 3 trial.

- RevMed said its drug almost doubled the typical length of survival and slashed the risk of death by 60% versus chemotherapy.

- The company said it will soon seek FDA approval using a Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher, which grants a quicker review.

- It is a small?molecule oral oncology drug, taken as a daily pill, not chemotherapy or immunotherapy.

- Stock up nicely on the news...

China PPI

- China’s factory-gate prices rose for the first time in more than three years while consumer inflation moderated in March, amid a surge in oil prices as the Iran war upended global energy markets.

...

A surprising payroll report

The quick war - not over just yet

Food inflation coming

Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week

Space issues - Space sewage

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- A surprising payroll report

- The quick war - not over just yet

- Food inflation coming

- Economics - a bright spot and surprising report last week

- Space issues - Space sewage

- 8PM - End of Civilization?

Markets

- March sucked - that is the report

- 1st quarter results are in - we will discuss

- OIL - UP - WTI and Brent rising - its only transitory

- Market Manipulation - say it ain't so!

Oil

- Interesting note that WTI is trading higher than Brent - unusual

- WTI ~ $116  Brent ~ $109

- Brent for immediate delivery in Asia $140 as being bid up for purchase NOW

- WTI may have an edge because it is available and buyers also stocking up on that...

- Europe running out of Jet Fuel - USA sending over a supply - also unusual

BUT - 8PM ET - End of Civilization?

- Or last minute miracle - with mystery negotiations

- Pakistan requesting 2 week pause - with movement of ships through Strait

- YES, we have a 2-week pause - no kidding! Crude down 15%, market indices up 2%

---- Wait - Negotiations will start Friday... (Friday?)

In Process - In Theory - Framework

- OPEC+ agrees in principal theoretical framework to increase output

- OPEC+ eight members to raise quotas by 206,000 bpd for May

Apple Foldable Flop

- Apple shares sunk 2% after reports that the company’s foldable iPhones may face delays.

- Nikkei Asia reported that the company is facing engineering challenges in what would be the iPhone-maker’s first foldable device.

- Engineering problems they say....

Closing this Discussion

- Bored with this....But...

- OpenAI announced it closed its record-breaking funding round at a post-money valuation of $852 billion.

- The round totaled $122 billion of committed capital, up from the $110 billion figure that the company previously announced.

- OpenAI said it extended participation to investors through bank channels for the first time and raised $3 billion from individual investors.

The 1st Quarter Misery

- Microsoft lost almost a quarter of its value in the first three months of the year, its steepest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis.

- Concerns about the company include the return on investment for artificial intelligence build-outs and the adoption of Copilot.

- The company’s stock plunged 23% in the first quarter, a steeper drop than any of its tech peers or the Nasdaq,

- Microsoft’s earnings multiple hasn’t been this low since the fourth quarter of 2022, when OpenAI introduced ChatGPT.

- SAAS compaies got crushed - Adobe, Atlassian and ServiceNow all down more than 30% YTD

- Financials, Consumer Discretionary and Homebuilders had tough quarter

1st Quarter Happiness

- Energy Sector up 30%

- Materials up 10%

- Utilities up 10%

- Oil up almost 100%

- EM still positive for 2026

Latest Eco

- Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 178,000 in March, a reversal from the 133,000 decline in February and better than the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 59,000.

- The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.3%, though that was largely from a sharp reduction in the labor force.

- Wages also rose less than expected, with average hourly earnings up just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% from a year ago. The annual increase was the lowest since May 2021.

-Health care was responsible for much of the growth, with the sector adding 76,000 jobs.

- March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 54.0% vs. 54.9% Briefing.com consensus; prior 56.1%

- - Overall, there is not much going on good or bad - just the same in US Economics

------ Next couple of months will show inflationary pressures

Inflation

- Tomatoes, strawberries, asparagus, veggies in general are moving higher

- - - Tomato prices are rising, with significant increases driven by a 17%–21% tariff on Mexican imports, labor shortages, and supply tightening

- Experts warn these factors could increase prices by up to 50% for consumers, especially during winter months, and recent reports indicate continued shortages and high costs through early April 2026

- Florida frost in Q1 and now UREA shortages during spring planing will cause even more problems and pricing pressure (inflationary)

No View

- Satellite imaging firm Planet Labs said on Saturday it will indefinitely withhold visuals of Iran and the region of conflict in the Middle East to comply with a request from the U.S. government.

- Planet Labs will release images only on case-by-case basis for urgent or public interest needs

- Satellite imagery of hard-to-reach areas useful for news media, researchers

- Other providers like Vantor apply their own controls but were not contacted by U.S. government

- Interesting potential for an edge in war if we can see them and they and they can't see us

Dems probing stock trades

- Two Democratic U.S. senators on Thursday called on Wall Street's top regulator and a Defense Department watchdog to prevent and investigate possible insider trading by government officials following a spate of market activity seemingly timed to President Donald Trump's announcements.

- Reuters and others have reported that major moves over the last year in equity, commodities and prediction markets are consistent with the possibility that traders had advance knowledge of Trump's announcements concerning the war with Iran, tariffs and the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, among other examples.

- Repubs only care if Pelosi does trades and Dems only care if Trump related trades

The Final Frontier

- The Universal Waste Management System toilet on the Orion crew capsule has been giving the Artemis II crew some issues during their mission to the moon.

- The toilet's problems included a pump that needed extra water to work and a potential buildup of ice blocking the vent nozzle that allows wastewater to drain out into space.

--- For a while there was no urination allowed only space poops since on different disposal systems

- NASA was able to fix the issue by positioning the Orion so that the toilet vent would "bake" in the sun and melt the ice, and the crew is now cleared to use the toilet for all purposes.

---More: The UWMS comes equipped with a funnel and hose for urination, and there is a seat with a hole for bowel movements.

-------Since the astronauts are in microgravity, the toilet relies on air flow that pulls waste into the toilet and ensures the capsule stays clean.

-------------The astronauts can also use footstraps and handles to stay in position.

Earnings Season

- Analysts have been increasing their earning estimates into the quarter - which is unusual as usually see declines into the prints (so that companies have easier hurdle)

- The S&P 500 is expected to deliver 13.2% year-over-year earnings growth, marking a sixth straight quarter of double-digit gains.

- Revenue is expected to grow 9.7%, the strongest pace since Q3 2022.

- But what about the outlook?????????????????

Mag 7 Earnings expectations

- Of course The Magnificent 7 remain central to earnings growth and market direction.

Nvidia (~127.7%) and Tesla (~124.9%) are driving outsized earnings expansion.

Apple (~19.0%) and Microsoft (~17.2%) show solid but more normalized growth.

Meta (~3.4%) and Amazon (~3.2%) are slowing, while Alphabet (~-6.9%) is expected to decline.

Growth within mega-cap tech is becoming less broad and more concentrated in a few names.

Just In

- Remember in January with Medicare Advantage and Part D payment plans from governments were being cut?

- Insurance company stocks got smacked...

- Expectations were for a 4% or so raise and it came in flat

- ON DHUNPLUGGED - (1/27/2026) we discussed that this was a game and would come back when finalized inline with expectations  to show how great the benefit is to Medicare recipients (voters)

---- We added United HealthCare (UNH) to the Weekly Stock Pick game as a rare Purple pick

- Now, final numbers announced and  are projected to result in a net average increase of 2.48%, or over $13 billion in additional MA payments to plans in CY 2027. This expected increase includes consideration of the various elements that impact MA payments, such as growth rates of underlying costs, 2026 Star Ratings for 2027 quality bonus payments, and risk adjustment updates.

- UNH and other names int he sector moving up nicely on the news

- (Potential related stocks: UNH, CVS, MCK, CI, HUM, CNC, ALHC, MOH, ELV, THC, UHS, CYH, HCA, OSCR)

France Gold

- France’s central bank has sold off the last of the gold it held in the United States Federal Reserve and replaced it with higher quality bars in Paris, taking advantage of rising prices to make nearly €13 billion as it upgrades its holdings.

- Moved all holding back to France

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

ANNOUNCING THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN

for NETGEAR

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

March is the WORST month for markets in a long time.

International equities getting killed

Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down

The markets Trump Card no longer works...

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- Trump may have played the wrong cards (Making up stories for markets)

- Oil prices on the move - Monday highest close yet for this cycle ($105)

- For Real ? End of War?

Markets

- WORST month in a long time

- International equities getting killed

- Dollar Up, Oil Up, Equities Down, Bonds Down

Happy Passover and Happy Easter!

- Made a brisket 2 ways!

One Food item and then back to business

- New trend at restaurants: " We do not use any seed oils - no, we use beef tallow.....

- Reaction from crowd and recent FDA

- Sunflower, Canola, Soybean (unsaturated is better....)

Monday Morning Again

- 7:30am Monday Morning - More BS for the markets - Talks going great...

---- Problem is that there was a severe threat that if nothing changes by next week- Iran is going to get pummeled

------Iran strikes several key targets in Middle east - Aluminum prices spike, oil prices moves higher....

- It does not look like Iran is too concerned. (Complacency or Strength?)

- Unfortunate that markets are not reacting well - (Wolf?)

- So we have until the day after Easter?

Tuesday....

- Iran's State Media says Iran's President spoke with EU Council on the phone; says Iran is "prepared to end war" with guarantees against further attacks; EU Council President has confirmed this call -

- Just moments after WTI hit $105... quickly came down to $102+/-

- Everything turned higher - green across the board

More Crazy Records

- BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky added, "At 12:41 ET today, that NYSE TICK Index hit +2329, the highest on record back to 1993. This index measures the number of NYSE securities trading on an uptick minus those trading on a down tick at any given time of day.

- For perspective, there are ~2400 stocks on the NYSE, which means nearly 100% of stocks traded on an uptick, simply unprecedented.

- Prior high was 4/9/2025 when President Trump put a 90-day pause on tarrifs

---- More - S&P was up 9.5% that day and then sold off 6.5% over the next seven days

Hormuz Tolls/Permits

- Ships would have to pay for “safe passage” through the strait

- Fees reported as high as $2 million per vessel for some tankers

- Mandatory clearance and vetting by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)

- Escort through a narrow Iranian-controlled corridor, primarily near Larak Island

- Only “non-hostile” vessels would be eligible—a term Iran defines politically

Hedge Funds and Money Managers

- Plans continue - equities coming out to cash

- Hedges applied

- H&C is doing the same thing for portfolios - plans for what/if and action ahead of further breakdown

--- There is discussion that this sets up for a nice reversal (when/if) ceasefire

------- HOWEVER - damage has been done...

More....

- Heavy short sales by hedge funds and disposals by systematic investors have increased the potential for a sharp swing higher for stocks in the event of a de-escalation in the Iran war.

- Hedge funds have cut global equity holdings for a sixth straight week, driven by short sales, with net disposals across all major regions and short exposure in macro products in Europe reaching a 10-year high.

- Some signs of capitulation are starting to emerge among hedge funds, and the systematic community is running out of steam, with CTAs estimated to be buyers in every scenario over the next month.

Capitulation of More To Come?

GS Prime Book

Market Metrics

FRIENDLY REMINDER

- It is Tax season - Tax returns due 4/15

- IRA deposits due by 4/15

Food Deal

- Sysco Corp. is acquiring Jetro Restaurant Depot LLC for $29.1 billion including debt in a deal that will create one of the largest food-service groups in the US.

- Jetro shareholders will receive $21.6 billion in cash and 91.5 million Sysco shares, with the company's existing management team staying in place.

- The deal will give Sysco access to the higher-margin and growing cash-and-carry channel, with the combined company expected to have increased purchasing efficiencies and lower prices for customers.

- This looks like a smart deal - gives Sysco new footprint and distribution

Emerging Markets

- According to Bloomberg: The Middle East war risks ending a run of net credit-rating upgrades across emerging markets and could trigger a new downgrade cycle as it fuels inflation and tightens financial conditions.

- A prolonged Iran conflict could tilt the balance back toward downgrades, reversing the past three years when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets and implemented fiscal reforms.

- The inflation shock and tighter financing conditions will weigh on all countries, according to S&P Global Ratings Director Ravi Bhatia, as higher oil prices boost revenues for exporters and strain importers.

- The shift would mark a reversal from the past three years, when many emerging markets repaired balance sheets, implemented fiscal reforms and regained market access after the pandemic triggered widespread defaults and rating cuts.

- A prolonged Iran conflict could now tilt the balance back toward downgrades.

Oil Pries Factor

- Oil prices closed at the highest levels in 3 year on Monday

Market Metrics

In Stupid News

- Former world number one Tiger Woods was arrested on a charge of driving under the influence after his Land Rover rolled over on a two-lane road near his Jupiter Island home in Florida on Friday afternoon, the Martin County Sheriff's Office said.

- Woods had been overtaking a work truck pulling a trailer at high speed when he clipped the back of it, causing his vehicle to roll onto its driver's side, Sheriff John Budensiek told a press conference.

- Tiger crawled out of the passenger door before law enforcement officers arrived. A breathalyzer test at Martin County Jail returned no trace of alcohol, with investigators believing his impairment was drug or medication-related.

- Woods charged with DUI, property damage and test refusal (Woods refused to submit to a urine test, an offense that carries a separate charge under Florida law. No injuries were reported to Woods or the driver of the other vehicle.)

- Breathalyzer showed no alcohol; impairment believed drug-related

- Woods released after spending eight hours in jail

Private Credit - Now Blaming ... Private Credit

- Private credit industry execs are blaming the industry for not explaining to retail about lock-ups and liquidity.

- That is dumb - clearly easy to understand that you cannot get your money unless allowed by the investment firm

- - Here is the fact - they would have never got $ from most retinal if they told them they could not get their money readily - so they glossed over it.

USPS Surcharge

- The U.S. Postal Service plans to impose its first-ever surcharge on packages to cover the rising cost of fuel and transportation, as the agency looks for ways to stabilize its finances.

- The 8% surcharge will begin on April 26th

Meta Glasses

- Meta announced on Tuesday that it’s launching two Ray-Ban smart glasses that are designed for prescription wearers.

- While many people already use Meta glasses with prescription lenses, the company says these new ones support nearly all prescriptions and are built to better serve people who rely on all-day eyewear.

Wearables

- Whoop, the fitness and health tracking wearable company, has closed a $575 million Series G funding round at a $10.1 billion valuation — nearly triple its last reported valuation of $3.6 billion — in a deal that brings together sovereign wealth funds, major health institutions, and some of the world’s most recognizable athletes.

- The round was led by several VC groups, soverign wealth funds as well as

THEFT

- Cisco has suffered a cyberattack after threat actors used stolen credentials from the recent Trivy supply chain attack to breach its internal development environment and steal source code belonging to the company and its customers.

- A source, who asked to remain anonymous, told BleepingComputer that Cisco's Unified Intelligence Center, CSIRT, and EOC teams contained the breach involving a malicious "GitHub Action plugin" from the recent Trivy compromise.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

ANNOUNCING THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN

for NETGEAR

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

 

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE!

Correction in some areas and sectors.

Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran.

Airports are a mess.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm-Up

- JCD BACK IN THE HOUSE

- Need a new CTP

- Airports are a mess

- Not Kosher - Futures moves

Markets

- From the Brink....All is good?

- Correction in some areas and sectors

- US Dollar Rises, Gold, Silver and Bitcoin Drop

- Crude oil DROPS after "good" talks and a deal brewing with Iran - reversing all of the above

JCD UPDATE

- AH waiting by the microphone on a Tuesday in March - - no John... 9pm, 9:05, 9:15pm...

- Health update etc...Can we get the story?

- Thoughts on John S. Dvorak (Mimi on No Agenda) - Family backup!

Market Update

- Small-Caps taking the brunt of the selling

- Russell 2000 small-caps are down 10% from their high - an official correction

-- Interestingly the R2000 is still up this year by about 2%

- Stocks up on Monday after President Trump says intense negotiations over weekend and postpones targeted attacks for 5 days (after giving a 48 hour ultimatum)

Manipulation? Say it ain't so...

- Dateline Monday morning...

- Futures took a leg down pre-market - even after Friday (after close) President Trump said he was looking to wind down the Iran affair

- At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume.

- A similar pattern was observed in oil markets.

- Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump posted a market-moving announcement about Iran on Truth Social.

- Futures on DJ up 1,000 and oil down 89%

--- Were there really conversations and negotiations over the weekend?

A Few Leftovers that need to be discussed

Private Credit Again

- All of a sudden they are admitting there is a problem.....

- Blackstone Inc. approved redemptions of a record 7.9% from its flagship private credit fund, totaling about $3.8 billion.

- Redemption requests have increased across multiple private credit funds in recent quarters.

- Investor unease is being driven by concerns over the private credit asset class, particularly exposure to software companies vulnerable to AI disruption.

- According to Hugh Chung, CIO of Endowus, Blackstone’s experience suggests these concerns are asset-class wide, not limited to a small group of managers.

- Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that a shakeout is coming for private credit firms, driven by rising defaults on loans to software companies.

- Rowan emphasized that the shakeout is unlikely to be short-term, calling it foreseeable and predictable, and underscoring the importance of disciplined underwriting and strong risk management.

- He argued that investors should prefer having credit risk reside within private markets firms, rather than on bank balance sheets backed by government-insured deposits, which can amplify systemic risk.

- LATEST: Apollo is curbing redemptions from one of their biggest Private Credit funds.

Michael Gayed: Private credit default rate just hit 9.2%. That's higher than 2008 bank loan peaks. $1.8 trillion in assets, $100B in secondary liquidity. 18:1 mismatch

PRIVATE CREDIT

More OpenAI Funding

- Amazon invested $50 billion, Nvidia invested $30 billion and SoftBank invested $30 billion in the round, OpenAI said in a release Friday.

- The investment boosts OpenAI to a $730 billion pre-money valuation, which marks a big jump from its $500 billion valuation in a secondary financing in October.

- The will use some of the money to expland and buy more chips and cloud from NVDA and AMZN (? Circular?)

MORE ON THE CIRCULAR SHAM

- OpenAI said it is expanding its existing $38 billion agreement with Amazon Web Services by $100 billion over the next eight years.

-  AWS will also serve as the exclusive third-party cloud distribution provider for OpenAI’s enterprise platform Frontier, which it unveiled earlier this month.

AI and Where we stand

- Can we talk about Anthropic? Is the Government going to crush Claude?

- What is our Go-to AI bots?

- What stage are we at right now? LLMs > Infernce>Agentic

- - What comes after Agentic

Netflix OUT

- Last week, Netflix exited the bidding for Warner Bros. Discovery after a competing bidder submitted a superior offer.

- The decision followed pre-planned bidding scenarios, with co CEO Ted Sarandos saying the company knew exactly how to respond once the higher offer emerged.

- Sarandos said the Paramount deal is likely to drive significant cost-cutting, including roughly $16 billion in reductions and thousands of job losses.

- He emphasized that Netflix will continue investing in its business and explore new ways to collaborate with theater owners, rather than pursuing large acquisitions.|

- Stock rose nicely on the news

Tariff Refund Update

- You are screwed....

-- Trump administration seems hell-bent on keeping our money

Airlines

- After a rather bullish commentary from Delta last week....

-  United Airlines is cutting more unprofitable flights over the next two quarters as it prepares for a prolonged period of high jet fuel prices due to the Iran war, even as strong travel demand has allowed U.S. carriers to raise fares.

Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo the airline is preparing for oil to rise as high as $175 a barrel and remain above $100 until the end of 2027.

- At those levels, United's annual fuel bill would rise by about $11 billion, more than twice the profit it earned in its "best year ever," he said.

- Ticket prices going up!

Gas Prices

- Have you seen diesel prices?

- > $5 gallon on average across the U.S.

-- Implications beyond

--- Let's discuss the similarities to the 1973 oil embargo. (Barry switching license plates)

- 1973–1974 ? Arab oil embargo (the classic “1970s oil embargo”)

- 1979 ? Second oil shock caused by the Iranian Revolution (not an embargo, but another major supply shock)

Even So - Fedex

- FedEx Corp. raised its full-year profit forecast, with adjusted earnings expected to be $19.30 to $20.10 a share for the fiscal year.

- The company's shares climbed after the announcement, with the stock advancing about 23% this year through Thursday's close.

- FedEx does not expect the war in the Middle East to have a direct material effect on its business, but the broader consequences, including higher energy prices and volatile shipping patterns, are adversely affecting the global economy.

- In fact, company raised its full year outlook.....

--- Not a material effect???

Bad People

- SuperMicro Co-Founder Charged!

- Super Micro shares sank 28% last Friday after U.S. prosecutors charged three people linked with the company, including its co-founder, with helping smuggle billions of dollars worth of AI technology to China. (NVDA chips)

- The U.S. Justice Department charged Super Micro co-founder Yih-Shyan Liaw, sales manager Ruei-Tsang Chang, and contractor Ting-Wei Sun with running a scheme to route U.S.-made servers through Taiwan to Southeast Asia.

- The defendants allegedly used a Southeast Asian company as a middleman to place orders for high-end servers containing restricted Nvidia H200 and Blackwell chips. The equipment was then repackaged into unmarked boxes and diverted to China.

- To evade U.S. audits and customs inspections, the individuals allegedly created thousands of "dummy" servers and used a hair dryer to remove and reattach serial number labels from genuine servers to the fake ones.

--- Soooo, only 3 people did all of this?

Amazon Phone

- Amazon's new phone project codenamed 'Transformer'

- Focus on AI integration, Alexa features, and mobile personalization

- Here is what we know:

-------It is a smartphone, not a wearable or accessory

- It is AI-centric, with Alexa deeply integrated

- It is meant to act as a personalized, always-on gateway into Amazon’s ecosystem (shopping, Prime Video, Prime Music, services like Grubhub)

- It is being built inside Amazon’s Devices & Services group by a skunkworks team called ZeroOne, led by former Xbox architect J Allard

OpenClaw

- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says OpenClaw could be the next ChatGPT as AI shifts from answering questions to taking action.

- Jensen said : Nvidia is building security around the technology with NemoClaw to enable safe and scalable adoption of AI agents.

- Project OpenClaw: “It is now the largest, most popular, the most successful open-sourced project in the history of humanity,”

- OpenClaw is an open-source autonomous AI agent platform that goes beyond traditional chatbots.

-----Instead of answering questions, these agents can complete tasks, make decisions, and take actions with minimal input from users.

- Use case: Prompt to study images of a kitchen, learn design tools, iterate ideas to learn how to design a kitchen

------- Jensen says: “Every carpenter can now be an architect. Every plumber will become an architect. We are going to elevate the capabilities of everyone”

---- What happens to the architects?

Something....

- One of the hardest hit countries in all of this mess has been South Korea

- ~70% of South Korea’s crude oil imports come from the Middle East - Most of that oil transits the Strait of Hormuz

- Margin calls kicked in as high margin debt with heavy retail participation

- Won weakened sharply (17-year low)

- Korea economy is dependent on global demand and stable energy prices

- South Korea often leads sell-offs as it is the purest RISK ON market in Asia

---- SOOOOO, if this thing ends quickly, there is a potential of EWY to move up again....

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?...

Exploring Bogus oil prices

Hold cow - look at what Gemini and JSD can do...

Markets needed good news - Correlation high

Fed on hold?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

 

Warm-Up

- Bogus Oil Prices

- Look at what Gemini and JSD can do...

- Markets needed good news - Correlation high

- Fed on hold?

- JCD LIMERICK!

Markets

- Did we just correct?

- Inflation - Eco that matters

- Manipulation in Oil - Land?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest 

- UPDATE ON JCD

- AH Spoke with JCD Saturday....

Oil Prices - Bogus?

- The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100.

- Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect?

- But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation.

- Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75)

Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas?

Gas Prices

More Manipulation

- The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said.

- US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?)

- Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that.

- Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008

----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline.

------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse.

---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed

Inflation and ECO

- PCE Prices stay elevated

- GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday.

- The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%.

- The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December.

Eco Table

Oil Models...Very Cool

- JSD - Explain

- https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804

Department of Defense, err War, is hiring

- The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit?

- This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???)

----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations.

- Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil????

--- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense)

Did you know?

- 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar

- Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally

- South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically

-  Semiconductor manufacturing

- - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes).

- - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers.

-- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning.

- - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability.

- - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs.

INDIA! Running out of Gas

- Does it matter?

- India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil

- Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation

- BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India?

-- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India

Back to this...

- AI not causing job losses

- WHAT ABOUT META?

- Meta’s stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending.

Drone Warfare

- New Warfare fought like games

- Ender's Game Movie

- Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet)

Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet)

Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds)

Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range)

--- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia

Gaming Industry

- DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now

- Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales

- Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games

- Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU)

- Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles

- Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase

- Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M)

- AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside

- Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Target Earnings

- Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer’s earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump.

-  Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected

- Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected

- Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $7.50 to $8.50. Its adjusted earnings per share for the most recent full year were $7.57.

- Shares up 7% in a piss poor tape

 

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

There is a tech pundit whose name be John,

Whose sharp takes went late into dawn.

He hit pause for some care,

But with grit (and repair),

Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong.

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

WAR IS COMPLETE!

Oil Screaming higher

Euro Nat Gas up 60%

An update on JCD

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Warm-Up

- The CTP for Caterpillar - We have a winner!

- A tech earnings BLOWOUT

- A seminal moment with AI and Employment trends

- An update on JCD - from JSD

- A Limerick for JCD

Markets

- WAR FOOTING - Buyers are still there...

- Oil Screaming higher (Sunday night wow!)

- Euro Nat Gas up 60%

- Anyone wondering why markets keep going up?

John Dvorak Jr. - Guest 

- UPDATE ON JCD

JSD:

- Tell us what you are doing these days...

- What was it like growing up around constant tech commentary and skepticism?

- How did that environment shape the way you look at innovation and hype?

- Where do you most disagree with your father’s views on technology today?

- Is AI making people smarter—or more dependent?

- How should younger professionals think about job security when automation is accelerating?

War and Oil

- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, per a Reuters report.

- About a third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025.

- Threatening to BURN any ship that attempts to go through

- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical, narrow chokepoint about 90–104 miles (145–167 km) long and 21–60 miles (33–95 km) wide. At its narrowest, it is only 21 miles (33 km) across, with shipping lanes in each direction restricted to just two miles wide to accommodate massive oil tanker traffic, representing about one-fifth of global oil consumption

- Meanwhile - lots of production halts - Oil screamed to $115 on Sunday night before cooler heads prevailed AND SPR talk hit the tape.

- MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?

Just in...

- President Trump says "I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the financial security of all maritime trade, especially energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all shipping lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible"

- BUT, who would even want to take the chance of moving through that area - even if there is insurance?

Meanwhile LNG

-Daily charter rates for LNG tankers in the Atlantic Basin have surged to over $200,000 per day.

- Rates are roughly double levels seen less than a day earlier.

- The spike followed Qatar’s shutdown of LNG production as the conflict with Iran spread across the region.

- The new offer levels are at least three times higher than the most recent assessed LNG tanker rate of $61,500, according to Spark Commodities earlier Monday.

- Despite the elevated asking prices, no transactions have yet been confirmed at these levels.

You thought that was BAD?

- Europe in bad shape with Nat Gas after Qatar halted production (accounts for 20% of global LNG supply)

Euro Nat Gas

Amazon Data Loss - HEY WHAT ABOUT THIS?

- Amazon Web Services said late Monday two of its data centers in the United Arab Emirates and a facility in Bahrain were damaged by drone strikes, taking the facilities offline.

- “In the UAE, two of our facilities were directly struck, while in Bahrain, a drone strike in close proximity to one of our facilities caused physical impacts to our infrastructure,” AWS said. “These strikes have caused structural damage, disrupted power delivery to our infrastructure, and in some cases required fire suppression activities that resulted in additional water damage.”

- This is an interesting twist on cyber-warfare - WHAT IF?

- JSD: How does this impact AI and the world tech flow?

Why do/did markets keep climbing?

- Global debt climbed to a record $348 trillion at the end of 2025, after nearly $29 trillion was added over the year in the fastest yearly build-up since the pandemic surge

- The increase was driven primarily by governments, which accounted for more than $10 trillion of the rise, with the United States, China and the euro area responsible for roughly three-quarters of the jump

- Also, margin debt up 30% in 2025 - so there is that...

- No wonder there is resilience in these markets...

Berkshire News

- Earnings from operations totaled $10.2 billion in Q4. That’s down more than 29% from $14.56 billion in the year-earlier period.

- Insurance underwriting profits dropped 54% to $1.56 billion from $3.41 billion a year prior. Insurance investment income slid nearly 25% from to $3.1 billion from $4.088 billion.

- This was the final quarter under Warren Buffett as CEO, who announced he was stepping down at the annual shareholders meeting last May.

- Full year overall earnings, meanwhile, fell to $66.97 billion from $89 billion a year prior.

- NO Buybacks, bit they still have more that $350B is cash

INTERACTIVE BROKERS

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/

Irritating

- UBS’ top equity strategist dialed back his view on U.S. stocks, citing mounting risks from a weakening dollar, stretched valuations and policy turbulence in Washington.

- Andrew Garthwaite, head of global equity strategy at the investment bank, downgraded American equities to “benchmark” in a fully invested global equity portfolio, arguing that the factors that powered years of outperformance are starting to fade.

- Market weight - no risk for this guy on the call. Can't lose as will just perform with the benchmark - DUMB

Dell Earnings BLOWOUT (Follow up)

- Dell reported adjusted earnings of $3.89 per share, exceeding the $3.53 per share expected by analysts surveyed by LSEG.

- The company posted $33.38 billion in revenue for the quarter, topping a forecast of $31.73 billion.

- Stock up 22% on the news and followed through on Monday

- Dell cut quote time to less that a week (prices expire)

- Dell expects revenue for its artificial intelligence servers to hit $50 billion in 2027, more than double the year prior.

- Much different story from HP that was complaining about input pricing.... Obviously Dell is much smarter at pass-though management of pricing.

Jack on the Attack

- Financial technology firm Block (XYZ), run by Jack Dorsey began slashing more than 40% of its workforce (4k people) on Thursday, saying in a letter to shareholders that AI tools "have changed what it means to build and run a company."

- The AI layoffs came as the Square payment system and Cash App operator matched fourth-quarter earnings estimates, yet Block shares surged after hours.

- Evercore ISI analyst Adam Frisch called the layoffs "the seminal moment to date in the AI narrative and how it could transform companies as we know it going forward."

- SOOOOOO - AI is responsible for job cuts?

---- SOOOOOO - AI can replace humans and as productivity is enhanced?

Duolingo

- Duolingo forecast first-quarter and 2026 bookings below expectations on Thursday as it shifts strategy toward faster user growth, a move it said will weigh on bookings growth and profitability this year, sending the company's shares down more 23% after hours last week.

- The company plans to roll out more AI-driven speaking tools to free users, reducing friction that previously nudged learners toward paid plans

- Poster child of how AI can kill your business?

- However, earnings/financials looked pretty good and there is a strategy there that may be beneficial

 

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR

Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!

 

 

FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

There is a tech pundit whose name be John,

Whose sharp takes went late into dawn.

He hit pause for some care,

But with grit (and repair),

Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong.

See this week’s stock picks HERE

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter