The dreaded downgrade.

Biden's health in the spotlight.

The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory

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 Warm-Up

- The dreaded downgrade

- Biden's health in the spotlight

- Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory

- China continues to stimulate

Markets

- Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels

- Stocks posting big gains for May

- Bitcoin surges past $100k

- Our debt load is untenable - great chart to consider

The Big Beautiful Bill

- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.

- The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.

- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.

- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.

- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.

- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.

- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.

- The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.

- The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government.

- The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided.

- The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000.

USD DEBT

Moody's

- U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns.

- That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1

- The first time since the  initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change

- Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process -

--- maybe they are sending a message

-"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.

Market reaction

- Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced

- Bonds - long end moved.

--- 30 yr treasuries up over 5%

---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7%

- Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futures

Bessent reaction

-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level.

-"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies."

- He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies

- Is that right?

China - Stimulating

- China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth.

- The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%.

US Steel still in play

- Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter.

- Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported.

- There is  a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then T...

- More Deals - So many deals! We are so Amazing with the Deals!

- Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened!

- Apple making moves - so smart

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 Warm-Up

- More Deals - We are so Amazing with the Deals!

- Investors turn hot on stocks - like nothing happened!

- Apple making moves - so smart

- Microsoft layoffs - Important information on this if you are one of these

Markets

- HUGE move as tariffs paused for 90 days on China

- Right on cue - most negative sentiment in decades then the squeeze

- China - we have something - Maybe Phase 1.5?

- Drug companies under pressure

- Google update  - Lots of headwinds

Announcing the Winner of the Micron (MU) CTP

Reconciliation BILL - Draft

- House Republicans release text of large reconciliation bill which includes extension of 2017 tax cuts for all income levels, spending cuts (Medicaid and green energy spending), energy reform, immigration reform, and a debt ceiling increase of $4 trillion

- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.

- It achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.

- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.

- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.

- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.

- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.

- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.

- Bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.

AI Diffusion Rule Repeal

- Wasn't the idea to stop chips from being sold to bad actors?

- Good news for NVDA, Intel, AMD etc...

- Is this good news?

Reality Bites

- A quick weekend meeting and all good

- 90 day pause

- The tariff rate on imported goods to the U.S. from China has been slashed from 145% to 30%, and the tariff rate on imported goods from the U.S. to China has been cut from 125% to 10%

- The Art of the ????

---- So confusing that it is hard to imagine that anyone really knows what is going on at this point.

What Do We Do With this:

- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the 10% baseline tariff rate on imports from other countries is likely to "be in place for the foreseeable future," echoing President Donald Trump's comments from days prior.

- They also said no change in tariffs not matter what China does, then maybe a reduction 80%  maybe

- FAKE PROMISES, Fake News????

China Shipments

- China's exports surged in April even as shipments to the U.S. plunged as businesses bore the brunt of prohibitive U.S. tariffs that kicked in last month.

- Exports jumped 8.1% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier

- Imports slumped by 0.2% in April from a year earlier (much less that expected)

- China's outbound shipments to the U.S. plunged over 21% in April year on year, while imports dropped nearly 14%, official data showed.

How Much?

- In April 2025, the U.S. government collected approximately $16 billion in net customs duties. This was a significant increase from the previous year, driven by higher tariffs on Chinese goods and other imports

- The budget results indicate that the U.S. collected just over $500 million a day from tariffs in April

Income Received

Inflation Update

- Somehow, not moving (yet)

- Total CPI was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.1% decline in March. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 2.3%, versus 2.4% in March. That is the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021.

- Core CPI, which excludes food and energy,

Good ECO/Markets = Trump

Bad ECO/Markets - Biden

CTP for Micron is underway

AI wins a horse race

News from Omaha

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 Warm-Up

- Good ECO/Markets = Trump

- Bad ECO/Markets - Biden

- CTP for Micron is underway

- AI wins a horse race

- News from Omaha

- India/Pakistan - India stikes

Markets

- Some Earnings Color

- S&P breaks it streak this week

- KRI +4, +5 (Spearman +100)

- Currency interventions happening

Interesting Timing

- Skechers U.S.A., Inc. the third largest footwear company in the world, today announced that it has agreed to be acquired by 3G Capital, a global investment firm built on an owner-operator approach to long-term investing.

- 3G gets discount as tariffs are softening price

- Helped to move the other names in the space higher

Heads I Win....

- President Donald Trump took credit for the "good parts" of the economy in an exclusive interview with NBC News airing Sunday, but said that the "bad parts" are former President Joe Biden's economy.

- "Ultimately, I take responsibility for everything, but I've only just been here for a little more than three months," Trump said.

- "The tariffs have just started kicking in. ... The tariffs are going to make us rich. We're going to be a very rich country," he added.

In terms of shortages:

- "I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs – that's 11 years old – needs to have 30 dolls," Trump said.

- "I'm just saying [children] don't need to have 30 dolls, they can have three, they don't need to have 250 pencils, they can have five," he added.

- But, Mira Lago has 58 bedrooms, 33 bathrooms, a 29-foot-long (8.8 m) pietra dura marble-top dining table, 12 fireplaces, and three bomb shelters.

---WHAT?

Ford Earnings

- Ford Motor beats by $0.14, misses on revs, co suspends FY25 guidance; says business is strong, adjusted EBIT tracking within prior guidance, excluding new tariff-related impacts

- Based on what the company knows now, and its expectation of how certain details and changes will be resolved related to tariffs, the company estimates a net adverse adjusted EBIT impact of about $1.5 bln for full-year 2025. Given material near-term risks, co is suspending guidance.

Block Earnings (Last week)

- Revenue decreased about 3% from $5.96 billion a year earlier.

-  Gross profit rose 9% to $2.29 billion from $2.09 billion a year earlier. That missed analysts' forecasts of $2.32 billion for the quarter.

- Gross payment volume hit $56.8 billion, missing expectations of $58 billion, according to StreetAccount.

- Stock plunges

 

 

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Palantir Earnings

- Palantir Technologies reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs above consensus; guides FY25 revs above consensus

- Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.13 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $0.13; revenues rose 39.4% year/year to $883.9 mln vs the $862.17 mln FactSet Consensus.

- U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% year-over-year and 19% quarter-over-quarter to $255 million.

- U.S. government revenue grew 45% year-over-year and 9% quarter-over-quarter to $373 million.

- Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $934-$938 mln vs. $899.44 mln FactSet Consensus.

- Co raises guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of $3.890-$3.902 bln vs. $3.75 bln FactSet Consensus. Raises adjusted income from operations guidance to between $1.711 -- $1.723 billion.

- Stock down- probably some profit taking as valuation is a bit stretched

Kentucky Derby

- AI Wins!

- Sovereignty won the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby in Louisville,

Oh boy -  Supply Chain Concerns again?

Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves?

China factories shutting down.

Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US.

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 Warm-Up

- Now Supply Chain Concerns

- Summertime lines - for goods/food? Empty shelves?

- China factories shutting down

- Talks/No-Talks Underway with China/US

- DONE DONE DONE - Lutnick

Markets

- Capital Raise - Big Boost - ELON

- Economics - Big Week

- Earnings - The big tech names are on tap

- Berkshire annual meeting and earnings this weekend

ELON

- Elon Musk's xAI Holdings is in discussions with investors to raise about $20 billion, Bloomberg News reported.

- The funding would value the company at over $120 billion, according to the report.

- THIS: The artificial intelligence firm last month acquired X in an all-stock deal that valued xAI at $80 billion and the social media platform at $33 billion.

- "This combination will unlock immense potential by blending xAI's advanced AI capability and expertise with X's massive reach."

- ELON also says that he will be stepping back from DOGE and refocus on TESLA

HAHA! FAV STORY!

- Tesla reported a $97 million loss due to digital assets, the company’s Bitcoin holdings. In the fourth quarter, there was a gain of $270 million.

- Tesla now excludes Bitcoin swings from its non-GAAP results.  Tesla also backs out stock-based compensation from its adjusted numbers.

- That means the Bitcoin gains were included in the company’s fourth-quarter adjusted results, and the losses weren’t included in the first-quarter adjusted results.

- Tesla’s report states that the accounting switch was due to the “adoption of the new crypto assets standard.”

Powell Under Fire - Update

- All is good - no new discussions is helping keep a bid under markets

Are Talks Ongoing at ALL?

- China says NO

- US says YES

- Which is it?

DONE DONE DONE

- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday teased that the Trump administration has reached its first trade deal, but said it was not fully finalized and declined to name the country involved.

- “I have a deal done, done, done, done, but I need to wait for their Prime Minister and their parliament to give its approval, which I expect shortly,” Lutnick told CNBC’s Brian Sullivan.

Unusual Winner

- With consumer sentiment shrinking and concerns about recession

- Travel companies are feeling the pinch - BUT, Travel insurance companies are cashing n on the Cancel for Any Reason Plans

- People want to travel but are hesitant as they don't know what will be in the future - therefore buy travel insurance

- No pure-play publicly traded stock

--  Berkshire Hathaway Travel Protection, Nationwide

Amazon White House

- The White House on Tuesday slammed Amazon for reportedly planning to display the cost of President Donald Trump's tariffs next to the total price of products on its site.

- "This is hostile and political act by Amazon," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a press briefing.

- "Why didn't Amazon do this when the Biden administration hiked inflation to the highest level in 40 years?" Leavitt asked.

- Amazon spokesperson tells Washington Post putting tariff rates next to products "was never under consideration for the main Amazon website.

- Says Amazon Haul has considered listing import price duties on certain products.

----- What is our take on this?

Big Moves

- Novo Nordisk and Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (NYSE: HIMS) today announced a long-term collaboration designed to make proven obesity care and treatments more accessible, more affordable, and more connected for millions of Americans.

CEOs Selling stock

Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP!

Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY

USD Weak - what are investors thinking?

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 Warm-Up

- Chaos - What next?

- Rates - moving in the wrong direction again

- USD Weak - what are investors thinking?

- A moment for Pope Francis

- CEOs - Selling stock

Markets

- Markets have had it - Done with this nonsense

- Fed Put in question - Powell under Fire from White House - Markets FED UP!

- Earnings Season - VERY CLOUDY

- VIX - back above 30 again (~35)

- HyperScalers - not so Hyper...

Update One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)

- We have a clear winner from all of the entries and will announce and play at end of the show - I think it is awesome!

ECB

The Governing Council today decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. In particular, the decision to lower the deposit facility rate -- the rate through which the Governing Council steers the monetary policy stance -- is based on its updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Powell Under Fire

- President Trump says "The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “too late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always too late and wrong.....Too Late should have lowered interest rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!"

- President Trump says he is "not happy" with Fed Chair Jerome Powell; says he thinks Mr. Powell would leave if he asks him to do so

- Is he going to ask - will he leave????????

- How will markets react?

--- STOP THE PRESSES - Already did a 180 on that..."No intention of firing Powell"

Flurry of Deal Comments Tuesday

- As expected, most contradict the other

- Confusion as to how long

- general happy thoughts - nothing concrete

- Markets reacted positively then came off highs

Pentagon in Chaos?

- White House looking for a new Secretary of Defense, according to NPR

- Will he now have a Podcast or go back to Fox and Friends?

- Of course the White House press secretary is denying

Skinny Minny

- Eli Lilly soaring after announcing positive late-stage trial results for its oral weight-loss and diabetes drug, orforglipron, paving the way for a possible launch by the end of 2025

- Novo Nordisk is looking for FDA approval of their pill-form Wegovy weight loss medication

Some Eco

- April Philadelphia Fed Index -26.4 vs. 10.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior 12.5

- March Building Permits 1.482 mln vs. 1.455 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.459 mln from 1.456 mln

- March Housing Starts 1.324 mln vs. 1.418 mln Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 1.494 mln for 1.501 mln

- March Leading Indicators -0.7% vs. -0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.2% from -0.3%

IMF - Downgrades US ECO

- The US growth forecast for this year has been given the biggest downgrade among advanced economies by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of uncertainty caused by trade tariffs.

- Growth is now expected to be 1.8% this year, down from the IMF's estimate of 2.7% for the US in January.

- The sharp increase in tariffs and uncertainty will lead to a "significant slowdown" in global growth, the Fund predicts.

NVDA

- NVIDIA breaks below $100 as China-based rival Huawei reportedly preps updated AI chip for mass shipment

- Last week, NVDA gapped lower after writing down its inventory by around $5.5 bln,

If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny

President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off

Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!

Earnings season rolls on

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 Warm-Up

- If this wasn't idiotic it would be funny

- President Miyagi at it again - Tariff on - Tariff Off

- Winning - We are Winning so much. Too much winning!

- Earnings season rolls on

- Need a new CTP stock

Markets

- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday and Tuesday - Called the near-term bottom

- Stock markets slammed

- President Trump discussing stocks

- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs

- VIX HITS 60 back UNDER 30

ANNOUNCING - One Time Competition - Put Lyrics to Music - The Tariff Blues (DHUnplugged Shirt and Song Play)

Nice end to the week!

- Markets gave some hope to the idea that more exceptions were coming

- Across the board, markets gained for the week in highly volatile trade

- Last week and the week before saw extreme movements

- Bond yields (10 yr) swung between 3.7% and 4.5% (add that to historic records)

- At one point equity futures were swinging 1% every 10 minutes in average during height of volatility

Wild Ride

VIX

- Moving lower as things settle down a bit

- This is something that everyone should understand - VIX does not stay elevated forever...

- VIX moves lower as shocks expire

- Great tool for risk management and trading during wild market moves

--- Get in and out...

Not Inflationary..(wink)

- China increased tariffs to 125%

- US Increased China tariffs to 145%

--- Speaking with colleagues and business owners - they are raising prices as cannot absorb thee levels

Tariffs

- Are we sick of this discussion yet?

- hares of automakers jumped during midday trading Monday following President Donald Trump saying he's looking to "help some of the car companies."

--- Auto companies are expecting to see a drop in vehicle sales in the millions, higher new and used vehicle prices, and increased costs of more than $100 billion for the industry, according to research reports from Wall Street and automotive analysts.

- BCG expects tariffs to add $110 billion to $160 billion on an annual run rate basis in costs to the industry, which could impact 20% of U.S. new-vehicle market revenues, increasing production costs for both U.S. and non-U.S. manufacturers.

- Weekend - Some exemptions are being made for semi's, smartphones and other electronics (Shares jumped Monday)

Workaround

- Apple airlifted $2 bln worth of iPhones from India ahead of tariffs

Boeing

- Chinese airlines have been ordered not to take any further deliveries of Boeing aircraft in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, Bloomberg News reports.

Zero Day

- Newsline: Wild intraday gyrations in stocks since "liberation day" have put investors more on edge than ever, and the popularity of zero-day-to-expiration options is partly to blame.

- Zero-day-to-expiration options are contracts that expire the same day that they're traded.

- The trading volume of 0DTE options tied to the S&P 500 surged to 8.5 million in April, a 23% jump since the beginning of the year and accounting for roughly 7% of the total volume in U.S. option markets, according to data from JPMorgan.

NVDA - News Drop

- Nvidia said on Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations.

- The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions. It generated an estimated $12 billion to $15 billion in revenue in 2024.

Tariffs are killing markets.

A glimpse int what happens when we take a difference course

Markets making some of the wort moves in decades

Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions...

WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not...

More finesse, less sledge hammer?

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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 Warm-Up

- Markets making some of the worst moves in decades

- Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions...

- WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not...

- More finesse, less sledge hammer?

Markets

- Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday.. Oversold?

- Stock markets slammed

- President Trump discussing stocks

- Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs

- VIX HITS 60!

-- A Quick Poem - Green Eggs and Navarro

--- One of the gents that responded to Vietnam's desire to have zero tariffs as "not enough"

DAX on Monday and other Markets

- Opened up down 10% - clawed back a bunch by end of the day

- European stocks down 1.5% YTD 2024

- US Stock bearing the brunt of the move

- Hong Kong (after being closed Friday) - closed Monday DOWN 13%!

- Monday in Japan, Markets halted, futures trading suspended as Nikkei and Topix plunge more than 5%

--- Follow up - then up 6% the next day

- Monday YTD US Markets:

Heads Up - Just in...

- Tuesday at 12:30PM

- 'White House Press Secretary says 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed it's retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow April 9th' 

-Markets were trying to right themselves - up big to start the day - then this headline....

- What if  - China comes back at 200%?

More:

- Tuesday afternoon : White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt answers questions on trade at briefing: President Trump not considering delay in tariffs that are due to go into effect tomorrow at 12:01 AM

- Where is the negotiation? Seems like a pissing match or bluff with unlimited funds.

If you are interested

- Rand Paul making all sorts of sense this morning

- Trades are win-win. Trade does not mean that one side has to win and one lose.

- https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/08/sen-rand-paul-on-trump-tariffs-trade-is-an-integral-part-of-capitalism.html

Stupid

- Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Sunday it will impose temporary curbs on short-selling of shares to help deal with potential market turmoil from U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs, and will take other steps as needed.

- Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement it would limit the number of shares that can be sold short and raise the minimum short-selling margin ratio to 130% from 90%, starting from Monday and lasting until Friday.

- We have seen how this plays out in the past.

More references to bluffing

- "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos," Bessent said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them."

VIX

- Hits 60 on Monday - then backs off to 45

- Not often we see a run like that.

- Still at 45 shows big concerned about near-term volatility.

--- S&P 500 top to bottom 7% move today - VIX was at 37 - back to 52

BREAK - IBKR

Billionaires losing $$

- Do we feel bad?

- Sample of losses on Liberation Day

- Zuck lost $18B

- Bezos lost $15B

What?

- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans looking to retire aren’t concerned about day...

Big changes - lots of year-end market S&P 500 downgrades.

Recession and stagflation

April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)

Bill Gates out with a big prediction

The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)

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DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

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 Warm-Up

- Big changes - lots of year end market S&P 500 downgrades

- Recession and stagflation

- April - a quick look at some interesting highlights of April (historically)

- Bill Gates out with a big prediction

- The Best Deal Ever! (ELON)

Markets

- Corrections happen

- Market jumped off the down worst levels on Monday - is worst priced in?

- Earnings season starts 4/11 - JPM to report

- Year end price targets - lowering

- Yields DOWN - Was that the plan all along?

OpenAi

- OpenAI on Monday announced it had closed its $40 billion funding round, the most ever raised by a private tech company.

- The deal values OpenAI at $300 billion, including the new capital.

- The round comes to $30 billion from SoftBank and $10 billion from a syndicate of investors.

Google Trends

- Stagflation - Keyword Search hit highest point in a long time.

- Lots of talk about the potential for higher inflation and softer jobs

Friday is the UnEmp Report

- Expectations are that the rate will tick up from 4.1% to 4.2%

- 145-150k people added to the jobs rolls

---- That would till be good numbers.

Tariff Day - AKA Liberation Day

- April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on-

- Facts say you? (I am not a smart man....)

--- Between China and Canada, Mexico, estimates that the tariffs would bring in $150 Billion in 2025.

- The US Stock market has lost $5.25 TRILLION during the same time

- US GDP is $29 trillion annually - what is $150 BILLION going to do?

- The U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2025 is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion.

Reagan - He is revered...ReaganOmics......

- April 25, 1987 -  Radio Address..

- " And today many economic analysts and historians argue that high tariff legislation passed back in that period called the Smoot-Hawley tariff greatly deepened the depression and prevented economic recovery. You see, at first, when someone says, Let's impose tariffs on foreign imports,' it looks like they're doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works -- but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.

- https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4

Something to Consider...

- Talk on the street: " Tariffs are a negotiation tactic" (What does that mean anyway)

-- Assumption: "US will win the negotiation"

- - Has anyone considered: What if it does not?

- The thought is that it needs to be "fair"

Atlanta GDPNOW

- Liked when it looks good - disregarded when looks bad

- January 31 initial GDP Forecast for Q was +2.9%

- Latest April 1  -3.7%

Inflation - Transitory again..

April 2 dealing approaching!

Doctor Copper!

Mag 7 = Lag 7

A New Closest to The Pin!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

 Warm-Up

- Inflation - Transitory again

- End of month - March not so good for US Markets - investors may try to squeeze toward the end

- Tariff waves - now there is talk of softening - April 2 is the day - next Wednesday.

- A restaurant Chain at ALL-TIME highs....

- Turkey - Market Mayhem

- An fun Limerick from a Listener

Markets

- Doctor Copper!

- Mag 7 = Lag 7

- Tesla Woes- Stock bouncing but challenges still remain

- March Sadness for Markets...

Attention Collectors! 

- The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by the end of the month above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000.

-  Put your address and size in the comments

Tariff Day

- April 2nd is the date that the retaliatory tariffs go on

- Why April 2nd? Why not April 1st??????

--- Worried that is April Fool's day and no one would take them seriously?

Copper Prices

- 45 year high

- What is this? Usually a predictor of the economic conditions -

- Seems like a little inflation (China also pumping)

- FYI - An average single-family home contains roughly 439 pounds (or 200 kilograms) of copper, primarily in wiring, plumbing, appliances, and hardware

Doctor Copper

What about Coffee?

- Chart - Cents per pound

- These increases are driven by climate-related impacts on major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam, as well as financial speculation in the market

- DOUBLE THE PRICE of last year

Coffee Prices

Housing Prices

- Reports that tariff induced panic is prices of raw materials is pushing prices up

- Developers are not going to get behind and this may push prices up - on average $10,000 per new home (at least)

Powell on Inflation

- Back to Transitory

- In his latest speech/commentary last week, he hinted that he believes that the current

- During his post-decision press conference last Wednesday, Powell said tariff-induced inflation could be “transitory,” or temporary.

- Here we go again!

Stagflation Anyone?

- Fed sees higher inflation and an economy growing by less than 2% this year

- The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee downgraded its collective outlook for economic growth to 1.7%, down from the last projection of 2.1% in December. In the meantime, officials hiked their inflation outlook, seeing core prices growing at a 2.8% annual pace, up from the previous estimate of 2.5%.

- In a statement, the FOMC noted the "uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased," adding that the central bank is "attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate."

Meanwhile...

- The 3-month Treasury rate inverted against the 10-year for a bit earlier this month.

- Currently they are locked at the same rate...

- This is the Fed's "preferred" measure of the potential for a recession in the future.

Boeing

- Boeing wins $20-billion contract for Next Generation Air Dominance program

- Win comes after Boeing annual loss, strike, other setbacks

- On the news, Boeing's shares rise, Lockheed's fall

- Lockheed has been plagued by delays in F-35 upgrade

- New name of the aircraft? The F-47 !

New-Clear Energy

- A nuclear power plant on the shores of Lake Michigan is aiming to make history this fall by becoming the first reactor in the U.S. to restart operations after shutting down to be eventually dismantled.

- Markets still unsettled

- Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?)

- Consumer frayed

A New Closest to The Pin!

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

 Warm-Up

- Markets still unsettled

- Retail spending down - another bankruptcy (but who they blame?)

- Consumer frayed

- Announcement #1 Closest to the Pin is a good one...

- Announcement # 2 New DH Shirts - attention collectors...

- March madness - BBall and Markets

Markets

-Worst month since 2023 - and it is not over

- USD is dropping - loss of confidence

- Gold - keeps shining - wow what a run!

- Revenge of the Dems on Markets? Tesla stock pummeled...(We initiated a new position on this drop - today)

- US Stocks  - where is the money going?

Attention Collectors! 

- The New DHUnplugged shirts are finally here! We are going to sell only 6 - the donations received by this Friday - March 21 above $250 will get a shirt - Nice white swim/light long sleeve. (The rest are reserved for winners and special occasions) - We will also have the #1 as the first shirt ever out to the public for $1,000.

-  Put your address and size in the comments

Consumer Confidence

- The preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for March experienced a significant drop, falling to 57.9 compared to the Briefing.com consensus of 65.6 and the final reading of 64.7 in February. This marked the third consecutive decline in consumer sentiment.

--- A year ago during the same period, the index stood notably higher at 79.4.

- Several key factors contributed to this decline.

-- The Current Economic Conditions Index decreased from 65.7 to 63.5, down from 82.5 a year earlier.

-- Similarly, the Index of Consumer Expectations saw a sharp drop from 64.0 to 54.2, compared to 77.4 a year ago.

-- Inflation expectations also played a significant role, with year-ahead inflation expectations climbing from 4.3% to 4.9%, marking the highest level since November 2022.

--- Additionally, long-run inflation expectations increased from 3.5% to 3.9%, the largest month-over-month rise since 1993.

!--The overarching takeaway from the report was that the decline in sentiment affected various demographic groups across age, income, wealth, political affiliations, and geographic regions, with inflation concerns and policy uncertainty emerging as critical factors behind the drop.

Consumer Confidence

Private Equity

- Time Bomb Twitter post?

- Yes, agree PE is getting too mainstream and not a good amount of liquidity - not right for most investors

- Is it the next bomb waiting to happen?

HANG ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

- Jeremy Siegel is sayibg market could go lower (Tom Lee !!!! We need you!!!!)

- Speaking on current market conditions, Siegel pointed to several risk factors that could push stocks lower in the near term. Key concerns include persistently high inflation, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and growing fears of an economic slowdown. While markets have shown resilience in recent months, he believes investors may be overly optimistic about the trajectory of interest rates and economic growth.

- “The market has priced in a near-perfect landing,” Siegel said, referencing investor expectations that the Fed will successfully bring inflation down without triggering a recession.

- However, he warns that there are still significant headwinds that could derail this outlook.

Retail

- Forever 21 filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in six years on Sunday and blamed fast-fashion e-tailers Shein and Temu for its demise.

- The retailer's operating company is expected to cease all operations in the U.S. and has already begun liquidation sales at its mor...