What goes up?
Uncertainty - that word again!
American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly.
Back from India - Namaste....
Psychological Indicators.
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Warm-Up
- What goes up?
- Uncertainty - that word again!
- American Exceptionalism - the theme for 2025 that is fizzling out quickly.
- Back from India - Namaste....
- Psychological Indicators
Markets
- Follow up - "They call it dumb money - ruling again" - how did that turn out?
---- Quantum stocks down 40-50% YTD
- Billionaires - kissing the ring and getting rug pulled
- TRILLIONS (4) lost in market cap - in the name of what again? (MAGA?) Make America God Awful?
- Germany's stock market hits all-time high (even though economy is not doing well)
- President Donald Trump marked his 50th day in office on Monday. So far, the stock market is off to its worst start since President Barack Obama's first term in 2009. (Have to go back to Nixon for the next "worst" start comparison)
Monday Markets
- Worst day for the Nasdaq since late 2022 (-4%)
- Tesla plunged 15% - worst day on 5 years (Emperor Elon has new clothes?)
Market Update (YTD)
- NAS100 down 7%
- SPY down 4.5%
- SPY Equal Weight down 0.5%
- ! Russell 100 Growth Down 10.5% , Russell 1000 Value up 1%
- Cruise ships and Airlines - Down 20-30%
- Emerging Markets UP 3.5%
- European Stocks up 7%
- China up 16%
- Nat gas up 50%
- WTI Crude - Down 7%|
- 40% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are off 20% from their recent highs
Down from the highs
Smacked Stocks
Is This the Plan?
- Tariffs as negotiating chip?
--- How Is that working?
- Slashing Government employees and spending
--- Is this the Twitter Plan of re-org?
- Deregulation?
- Tax Cuts?
- Bitcoin Reserve (major disappointment?)
--- Just the forfeited crypto from criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings.
- US Sovereign Wealth Fund
---- Are they taking down markets to get better pricing to then prop up?
- Rates are Down - but not for a good reason (10Yr @ 4.2%)
- - Recession concerns are growing
When will Fed step in to save the day?
--- Fed has taken harder stance - but they don't have the backbone to stay out of it if markets cave
Crypto Check
- Not good
- Bitcoin - big bump post election and then faded - back to exactly where it was pre-election
- ETH - back to levels from Nov 2023
How are the Big Boys doing this year?
- Billionaire Index Top Movers....
Billions and Billions
Elon Update - TSLA
- For seven straight weeks, since Elon Musk went to Washington, D.C. to join the Trump administration, shares in his automaker have declined, closing on Friday at $270.48. It's the longest such losing streak for Tesla in its 15 years as a public company.
- Several Wall Street firms this week, including Bank of America, Baird and Goldman Sachs, cut their price targets on Tesla.
- Elon was bemoaning how hard it was on him and companies right now....running them "with great difficulty"
- President Trump said that in light of this "boycott" of Tesla by the public - he is going out to buy a new Tesla this morning as a sign of support.
Quick AI Check - Tech Update
- Oracle issued quarterly results on Monday that trailed analysts' estimates, but the company offered bullish comments on its cloud infrastructure segment.
- Earnings per share: $1.47 adjusted vs. $1.49 expected
- Revenue: $14.13 billion vs. $14.39 billion expected
- Revenue increased 6% from $13.3 billion in the same period last year. Net income rose 22% to $2.94 billion, or $1.02 a share, from $2.4 billion, or 85 cents a share, a year earlier
