DHUnplugged Podcast

By Andrew Horowitz and JC DvorakBusiness News Investing Business News Careers

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July 30, 2025 DHUnplugged #762: What a Week!
GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting
Cover Art – Best Ever – Not…
New term – QUISHING
I gotchooo and Say less
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
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INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- Cover Art - Best Ever - Not...
- New term - QUISHING
- I gotchooo and Say less
Markets
- What a Week! - GDP, Earnings and FOMC meeting
- MORE ATHs!
- Earnings Season Update
- Homes - Capital Gains?
Cover Art
- Can we take a close look at what was AI generated this week?
- At least TWO glaring issues ...
China - another delay/pause?
- President Trump tells reporters on Air Force One that he could meet with Chinese President Xi by the end of the year (???)
EU Deal
- Framework of the deal seems done
- 15% across the board tariff on EU goods into the US (a couple of exceptions)
- Prices for Olive Oil from your favorite region is going up
- Some new benefits for US cars into Europe
- - If this is all so good for say US car manufactures, why aren't Ford and GM stocks doing anything?
Earnings this week of note:
- Microsoft (MSFT): Expected to report on July 30, 2025
- Meta Platforms (META): Scheduled to report on July 30, 2025
- Amazon (AMZN): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025
- Apple (AAPL): Scheduled to report on July 31, 2025
--- Those 4 companies are 20% of the S&P weighting
Earnings Season Update
- Overall, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2025 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 75%.
- If 80% is the final number for the quarter, it will mark the largest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise for a quarter since Q3 2023 (81%).
- In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 6.1% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 9.1% and below the 10-year average of 6.9%.
Real Estate
- Existing home sales fell 2.7% in June but were unchanged from June 2024.
- According to the latest report from the National Association of Realtors®, record-high home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and a moderate supply are discouraging some potential home buyers, particularly first-time home purchasers.
- The median existing-home sale price in June was $435,300, up from the May price of $423,700, and higher than the June 2024 price of $426,900
- Inventory ticked up from a 4.6-month supply in May to 4.7 months in June
- Sales of single-family existing homes dipped 3.0% last month. The median single-family existing home price was $441,500 in June, compared to $428,800 in May and $432,900 in June 2024.
Quishing
- QR codes used to trick people into visiting malicious websites or unknowingly share private information, a scam that has become known as “quishing.”
- The increasing prevalence of QR code scams prompted a warning from the Federal Trade Commission earlier this year about unwanted or unexpected packages showing up with a QR code that when scanned “could take you to a phishing website that steals your personal information, like credit card numbers or usernames and passwords. It could also download malware onto your phone and give hackers access to your device.”
- There is work being doen to develop a “smart” QR code called a SDMQR (Self-Authenticating Dual-Modulated QR) that has built-in security to prevent scams. But first, he needs buy-in from Google and Microsoft, the companies that build the cameras and control the camera infrastructure.
Thoughts?
- During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv’s trust in Starlink, the satellite internet service the billionaire provided early in the war to help Ukraine’s military maintain battlefield connectivity.
- According to three people familiar with the command, Musk told a senior engineer at the California offices of SpaceX, the Musk venture that controls Starlink, to cut coverage in areas including Kherson, a strategic region north of the Black Sea that Ukraine was trying to reclaim.
Trump and Powell
- Clearly nothing there...
- Trump had funny moment with Powell at renovation site
- May 2026 will be the day Powell steps down - when his term is over
- Until then, Trump will use Powell as an excuse if economy falters
- END OF STORY
Chocolate and Coffee
- Swiss food giant Nestle said Thursday that prices for its KitKat bars and Nespresso coffee pods could rise further in the second half of this year, as U.S. tariffs risk exacerbating existing commodity price pressures.
- CEO Laurent Freixe said that he was “satisfied” with broad price hikes implemented in the first half of the year, but said that company was still considering whether further action would be needed.
-- Arabica coffee prices have more than doubled since early 2023, while those for cocoa have more than tripled.
Who Would Have Thought?
- Obesity drugmaker Novo Nordisk today cut its full-year sales and operating profit forecasts for the second time this year, sending its shares down as much as 17%.
- The maker of weight-loss drug Wegovy is struggling to convince investors it can remain competitive in the obesity drug boom against U.S. rival Eli Lilly
- Novo shares have fallen sharply over the past year.
TESLA
- Shares fell last 8% Thursday after the company reported a second straight quarter of declining auto sales, and CEO Elon Musk told analysts that there could be a “few rough quarters” ahead due to the expiration of federal electric vehicle tax credits.
- Musk’s EV maker reported a 16% decline in automotive revenue from a year earlier to $16.7 billion.
- Total revenue fell 12% to $22.5 billion from $25.5 billion a year earlier, missing the average analyst estimate of $22.74 billion, according to LSEG.
- BUT ROBOTaxis are coming! (someday, maybe)
- Next plan is to roll up xAI into Tesla - Shareholders may not be too happy with that.
-- BTW 0- Shares have just about recovered already from the post-earning drubbing
Still losing $
- Intel reported second-quarter results on Thursday that beat Wall Street expectations on revenue, as the company’s new CEO Lip-Bu Tan announced significant cuts in chip factory construction. The stock fell about 5% in extended trading.
- Earnings per share: Loss of 10 cents per share, adjusted.
- Revenue: $12.86 billion versus $11.92 billion estimated
- Intel said it expects revenue for the third-quarter of $13.1 billion at the midpoint of its range, versus the average analyst estimate of $12.65 billion. The chipmaker said that it expects to break even on earnings while analysts were looking for earnings of 4 cents per share.
- Company also cited several other spending cuts in the memo, particularly in the company’s costly foundry division, which makes chips for other companies and is still looking for a big customer to anchor the business.
- Intel said its foundry business had an operating loss of $3.17 billion on $4.4 billion in revenue.
Economic and Other
- Two very important market-moving reports are out this week. The first estimate of gross domestic product for the second quarter is released this week.
- FYI 0 The economy contracted 0.5% in the first quarter.
- Expectations are that an uptick to +2.7% for Q2 - VERY strong!
--- ALSO - The Federal Open Market Committee has a rate decisions due Wednesday at 2PM. ----- What are we thinking about the potential for a rate cut this meeting?
New Trial Balloon
- No Capital Gain tax on home sales?
- Been thinking about this more - how does this help with housing prices and affordability?
Amazon Fraud Prevention
- An Amazon venture fund backs startup developing fix for return fraud
- Retailers of all sizes have in recent years struggled with an uptick in fraudulent returns. The scam involves shoppers requesting a refund, but instead of returning the merchandise, they keep the item and send back an empty package or a box of unrelated junk.
- Cambridge Terahertz, a Sunnyvale, California-based startup, has developed a 3D imaging system that can see inside unopened packages, enabling retailers to more easily and quickly spot cases of return fraud.
Transport M&A
- Union Pacific said on Tuesday it would buy smaller rival Norfolk Southern in an $85 billion deal, to create the nation’s first coast-to-coast freight rail operator and reshape the movement of goods from grains to autos across the country.
- If approved, the deal would combine Union Pacific’s stronghold in the western two-thirds of the U.S. with Norfolk’s 19,500-mile network that primarily spans 22 eastern states.
- This would mark the largest-ever buyout in the sector
THE GAME
Since the start of 2023
(Approx numbers as some names off as they have been bought out - so take with some grain of salt)
- 116 names, Total of the plus and minus is 330% - average is 2.85%
- Highest is 99.54% and lowest is a loss of 22%
- 64 losers, 54 winners (46% batting average)
- That is raw numbers, does not take into account reinvesting, amount invested, just the returns from the buy and the sell

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1 hr 7 min
July 23, 2025 DHUnplugged #761: Running of The Bulls
Back from Vacation – refreshed?
Fun with Coldplay!
A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing
Sugar in the news….
The REAL running of the bulls – bad things happen
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
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INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- Back from Vacation - refreshed?
- Fun with Coldplay!
- Sugar in the news....
- The REAL running of the bulls - bad things happen
Markets
- Earnings Season is here - about to get some big results this week
- Some earnings to discuss
- A quick look at how indices and sectors are doing
- Markets react to Trump/Fed comments
- YUGE deal with Japan
Market Update
Top to Bottom in - Fed - April (2 Months)
Bottom to Recovery of Loss - (2 months)
Now overshot and climbing to new ATH
DJIA up 4.8%
SP500 Up 7.69%
NASDAQ up 9%
Bitcoin Up 24%
Emerging Markets up 24%
USD down 10%
Gold up 24%
Copper up 35%
Small Caps up 0.95%
Apple DOWN 14%
YTD Sectors
Staring off: Will the TARIFFS actually go into play on August 1st, 2025???
What to do?
- Here we go again...
- I heard Adam and Tina coming to Florida next week and I have not heard from them....
-- Now maybe it is nowhere near me - Florida is a big state... (Am I being too sensitive?)
- If JCD came to FLA - I would think you would call me.... right?
Lessons
- Astronomer, the tech company that found itself launched into the public eye after its CEO Andy Byron was spotted on a Jumbotron video at a Coldplay concert last embracing an employee, announced that Byron has been placed on leave.
- Astronomer’s cofounder and chief product officer Pete DeJoy is now serving as interim CEO, the company said in a statement Friday night.
- “Our leaders are expected to set the standard in both conduct and accountability,” the statement said in part, adding that the company’s board of directors “has initiated a formal investigation into this matter and we will have additional details to share very shortly.”
- PEOPLE - think before you do stupid things!
NETFLIX Earnings
- Netflix posted second-quarter revenue growth of 16% on Thursday after the closing bell.
- The company raised its full-year revenue guidance, citing “healthy” member growth and ad sales.
- Netflix reported revenue of $11.08 billion for the second quarter, higher than Wall Street’s estimates of $11.07 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
-Stock was sold off after - priced to perfection
- Netflix’s higher forecast reflects the weakening of the U.S. dollar compared with other currencies as well as “healthy” member growth and ad sales, the company said in a statement. (What happened to constant currency?????)
- Off 8% this month, Up 36% YTD
Impressive
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, hitting a record high and beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stayed strong.
- The world’s largest contract chip manufacturer forecast third-quarter revenue between $31.8 billion and $33.0 billion — a 38% year-over-year increase and 8% higher from the prior quarter at the midpoint.
- - Revenue: 933.80 billion new Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected
- - Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billion
On the Other Hand
- ASML warned of the possibility of no growth in 2026, even as it beat top and bottom line expectations for the second quarter.
- ASML’s guidance for the current quarter missed expectations while it narrowed its own forecast for the rest of the year.
- Shares of the firm ended the day 11.4% lower after the report
- ASML is the sole supplier of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential for producing cutting-edge semiconductor chips. These machines are used by top chipmakers like TSMC, Samsung, and Intel to fabricate chips with features as small as a few nanometers
JAPAN DEAL
- We have a huge deal - no specifics but really big
- 15% tariffs on goods
- U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday stateside announced that he had made the “largest Deal ever” with Japan, that involves “reciprocal” tariffs of 15% on the country’s exports to the U.S.
- In a post on Truth Social, Trump also said that Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States, adding that the U.S. will “receive 90% of the Profits.”
OpenIA and Google
- OpenAI said Wednesday that it expects to use Google’s cloud infrastructure for its popular ChatGPT artificial intelligence assistant.
- The reach for additional capacity aligns with OpenAI’s desire for more computing power to meet heavy demand after initially relying exclusively on Microsoft
for cloud capacity. The two companies’ relations have evolved since then, with Microsoft naming OpenAI as a competitor last year.
-- Theory - Google (struggling to maintain its existence in a post-search world) gave them a really "competitive" pricing to win this account - hoping others will follow
EVEN MORE~!
- OpenAI is close to releasing an AI-powered web browser that will challenge Alphabet’s market-dominating Google Chrome.
- The browser is slated to launch in the coming weeks, three of the people said, and aims to use artificial intelligence to fundamentally change how consumers browse the web. It will give OpenAI more direct access to a cornerstone of Google’s success: user data.
Trial Balloon
- Comments that Trump will "FIRE" Powell last week sparked a quick sell-off in stocks and bonds. (A key Trump advisor made those comments)
- But all that was reversed within an hour as Trump said that was not true
- Stories about potential fraud charges due to cost overruns with refurb of the Fed's office building. (Cost now $2.5 Billion!)
- DID SOME DIGGING: Once construction began, the general contractor came across unexpected asbestos in the building, toxic soil contamination and a higher-than-expected water table, the Journal said.
- Inflation was a problem, too. Budget documents released at the end of last year showed “significant increases” in the cost of steel, cement, wood and other materials that “far exceed standard cost escalations,” the Journal reported.
- There were also changes to the scope - the agency added high-cost below-ground square footage to its office building adjacent to its historic headquarters to offset space it lost after the U.S. Commission of Fine Arts asked it to nix plans for a five-story tower addition.
Fed Push-back
- Chairman Jerome Powell and the central bank is quietly pushing back with a new “Frequently Asked Questions” page on its website defending the central bank’s $2.5 billion renovation project.
- The project aims to modernize the Federal Reserve’s campus by renovating three buildings overlooking the National Mall and adding a visitors center.
- “It involves a complete overhaul and modernization that preserves two historic buildings that have not been comprehensively renovated since their construction in the 1930s,” according to the Fed’s web page, which went up one day after Vought’s remarks on how the Fed was mismanaging the project.
AI Headway - Finance
- Anthropic on Tuesday announced Claude tools for financial services as part of the artificial intelligence startup’s latest attempt to court enterprise customers.
- The so-called Financial Analysis Solution can help financial professionals make investment decisions, analyze markets and conduct research, Anthropic said. It includes the company’s Claude 4 models, Claude Code and Claude for Enterprise with expanded usage limits, implementation support and other features.
- “What this is is a tailored version of Claude for Enterprise,” Kate Jensen, Anthropic’s head of revenue said at an event in New York City on Tuesday. “It’s specifically built for financial analysts, and it’s equipped for the nuance, accuracy and reasoning that you need to handle the complexity of your work.”
- As part of its new Financial Analysis Solution, Claude will get real-time access to financial information through data providers like Box, PitchBook, Databricks, S&P Global and Snowflake.
Forward Thinking
- Apple has signed a $500 million deal with MP Materials (MP) for rare earth magnets, mitigating supply risks after China curbed exports this year and representing a major coup for MP that sent its shares soaring by 20%.
- The backing from one of the world's most valuable companies comes after MP, which operates the only U.S. rare earths mine, last week agreed to a multibillion-dollar deal with the U.S. Department of Defense that will see the Pentagon become its largest shareholder.
- As part of the agreement, Apple will prepay MP $200 million for a supply of magnets slated to begin in 2027.
Cross Contamination
- Elon Musk ruled out a merger between Tesla and xAI but said he plans to hold a shareholder vote on investment in the artificial intelligence startup by the automaker, in the latest step to deepen integration across his business empire.
- $2 Billion of the $5 Billion share sale of xAI
- Tesla shareholders are now going to get a nice piece of Twitter (gigantically artificially overpriced) - JOY!
Sugar Sugar
- President Donald Trump said last Wednesday that Coca-Cola had agreed to use cane sugar in its beverages in the U.S. after his discussions with the company.
"I have been speaking to Coca-Cola about using REAL Cane Sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so. I'd like to thank all of those in authority at Coca-Cola," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
- Coca-Cola switched to High Fructose Corn Syrup in 1984 (Regan)
----Cane Sugar: Broken down into glucose and fructose in the body. Excessive intake is linked to obesity, diabetes, and other metabolic issues.
----Corn Syrup: Especially HFCS has been scrutinized for its potential role in increasing fat accumulation and insulin resistance, though research is ongoing and often debated.
-- Florida, Texas and Louisiana make up the majority of cane sugar
--------"Replacing high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar doesn’t make sense," said Corn Refiners Association President and CEO John Bode. "Replacing high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar would cost thousands of American food manufacturing jobs, depress farm income, and boost imports of foreign sugar, all with no nutritional benefit.”
- What shall we call it CokeCane?
----Coca-Cola on Tuesday reported quarterly earnings and revenue that topped analysts’ expectations as strong demand in Europe offset weaker volume in other markets. STOCK DOWN
Dumb Run
- A man was gored and seven others lightly injured on Tuesday, the second day of Pamplona's San Fermin festival in which thousands of people line the mediaeval city's narrow streets for the centuries-old tradition of running with bulls.
- The man who was gored, identified only as being older than 25, was injured by a bull horn under his right armpit, a spokesperson for the city emergency services said.
New App by Dorsey
- Jack Dorsey spent the weekend building Bitchat, a new decentralized, peer-to-peer messaging app that works entirely over Bluetooth mesh networks, with no internet, central servers, phone numbers or emails required.
- The Twitter co-founder announced Sunday that the beta version is live on TestFlight, with a full white paper available on GitHub.
- In a post on X Sunday, Dorsey called it a personal experiment in “bluetooth mesh networks, relays and store and forward models, message encryption models, and a few other things.”
Jack Dorsey Pic
M&A
- Chocolate maker Ferrero has agreed to buy cereal giant WK Kellogg in a deal valued at $3.1 billion, the companies announced Thursday.
- Shares of WK Kellogg soared 30% in premarket trading on the announcement.
Sad News
- Ozzy Osbourne, the wailing Black Sabbath singer-turned-solo act who took the “Crazy Train” from a bleak childhood in working-class Birmingham, England, to heavy metal stardom, has died.
- He was 76.
OH and..
- Genius Bill passes and is signed into law..
- Does anyone know why called genius Bill????
- HINT: Stablecoin big part of it...

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1 hr 10 min
July 09, 2025 DHUnplugged #760: Full Court Press
OBBBA written into law!
Big week for Coney Island
The American Party – Musk taking a shot
Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
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INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- OBBBA written into law!
- Big week for Coney Island
- The American Party - Musk taking a shot
- Amazon Prime Day (Prime Week) happening
- BIG WIN FOR US AT AIRPORTS!
Markets
- ATH before the July 4th break
- Jobs numbers - a bit surprising
- Tariff threats are back - full court press is on!
-- Letters are going out!
- NVDA - History in the making
THE WINNER OF THE CTP - Something that never happened before!
Earnings Season
According to Factset:
- During the second quarter, analysts reduced earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates by a wider margin than usual.
- The bottom-up EPS estimate for Q2—which aggregates the median EPS forecasts for all companies in the index—fell by 4.2%, dropping from $65.55 on March 31 to $62.83 by June 30.
- While it’s common for analysts to lower EPS estimates during a quarter, the size of this quarter’s decline stands out. Over the past 5 years (20 quarters), the average quarterly decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate has been 3.0%.
- Over the past 10 years (40 quarters), the average drop was 3.1%, and over the past 15 years (60 quarters), it was 3.2%.
- Only when looking back 20 years (80 quarters) does the average match this quarter’s 4.2% decline.
--- What this means is that easier hurdles to get over for companies that have had their earnings estimates slashed.
ELON
- On July 5, Musk said he would found an "America Party" as an alternative to the Republican and Democratic parties. Musk says the party will focus on "just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 house districts."
- He can't be President, what are his aspirations here?
Joey, Joey, Joey
- Joey Chestnut on Friday regained his longtime title of champion in the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest at New York City's Coney Island after he was banned from the competition last year.
- In the 2025 contest, he ate 70.5 hot dogs and buns in 10 minutes, totaling roughly 21,150 calories, 1,269 grams of fat, and 48,280 milligrams of sodium
Tariffs
- After OBBBA - good time to start this up again
- Bessent, White House and Navarro are back on the Tariff Trail
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump will send letters to some trading partners saying tariffs will boomerang back to April 2 levels on Aug. 1 if there is no progress.
- Bessent rejected that Aug. 1 is a new trading deadline, but it could still give countries more time to negotiate.
Bessent also said that he expects to see “several big announcements over the next couple of days” about trade deals.
- Johnny:I am going to count to three!
- Trump has threatened an additional 10% tariff on countries that orient themselves along the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.”
- Trump’s announcement, which did not elaborate on any specific policy of BRICS, came as the group’s meeting is underway in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
- Navarro out with his usual tough talk about all countries in the world screwing America on CNBC Monday..
- Trump said he had signed letters to 12 countries outlining the various tariff levels they would face on goods they export to the United States, with the “take it or leave it” offers to be sent out on Monday.
OOPS THERE IT IS!
- Monday 12PM: President Trump posts letters to Prime Minister of Japan, President of the Republic of Korea outlining 25% tariffs starting August 1}- Sends out a total of 14 letters. Markets miffed, but don't care
China and Trade Deal
- GE Aerospace has received U.S. government approval to resume jet engine shipments to China's COMAC, following a period of suspension due to trade tensions. This decision allows GE to supply engines for COMAC's aircraft programs, including the LEAP-1C for the C919 and the CF34 for the C909.
- Again, nothing more or less, just putting things back to g3ther after Humpty Dumpty broke into pieces on Liberation Day
CELEBRATION
- It’s now OK to keep your shoes on at some airports checkpoints
- The Transportation Safety Administration will allow passengers at selected airports to keep their footwear on as they go through security checkpoints, a senior government official tells NBC News.
- People in screening lanes will have to keep their shoes on at selected airports, but the source said the relaxation of the rules could expand nationwide in the near future.
TSA Lines
OBBBA
- Some highlights
OBBBA Highlights

Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/
Economic Boost
- Now that there is "no tax" on tips - do we tip less? Seems like we should back off by 25% on the 15-18% customary. New 2026 customary 13%? Which would in effect be more money in our pockets to spend and boost the economy! SMART!
- Foodservers/Tips Related workers could save up to about $3,000 a year in taxes if you can take full deduction ($25,000 of tips excluded through 2028)
- Overtime workers get a deduction -
Overtime:
-The OBBBA also provides a temporary above-the-line deduction for qualified overtime compensation.
Overtime pay is exempt from federal income tax up to:
- $12,500 for individuals
- $25,000 for married couples filing jointly
- The deduction phases out for MAGI above $150,000 (individuals) or $300,000 (joint filers).
- Qualified overtime includes pay mandated by the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) that exceeds the employee’s regular rate.
- Employers must report total overtime compensation on W-2 forms to support the deduction.
- Payroll taxes (Social Security and Medicare) still apply to overtime pay
Employment Report
- Job Growth: Nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June.
- Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May.
- Private Sector: Private sector job growth was weaker, with some sectors experiencing job losses.
- Government Employment: Government employment saw gains, with state and local governments adding jobs.
- Average Hourly Earnings: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% in June and 3.7% over the year.
- Workweek: The average workweek edged down by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours.
---Takeaway - Government hiring seems to push the numbers in the right direction - odd that hiring was up
OIL - Boosting Supply
- Eight oil-producing nations of the OPEC+ alliance agreed on Saturday to increase their collective crude production by 548,000 barrels per day, as they continue to unwind a set of voluntary supply cuts.
- This subset of the alliance — comprising heavyweight producers Russia and Saudi Arabia, alongside Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates — met digitally earlier in the day. They had been expected to increase their output by a smaller 411,000 barrels per day.
- In a statement, the OPEC Secretariat attributed the countries’ decision to raise August daily output by 548,000 barrels to “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories.”
- As would be expected - Oil is actually moving higher on this news.... (The Upside Down)
Do We Feel Safe With This?
- Boeing said last Thursday it had secured a $2.8 billion U.S. contract to develop and produce two satellites with options for two more.
The Evolved Strategic Satellite Communications (ESS) program will deliver space-based nuclear, command, control, and communications for the U.S. president and joint strategic global forces.
- Boeing is set to deliver the first of two space vehicles by 2031.
- When deployed in geostationary orbit, the ESS will provide persistent coverage to strategic warfighters worldwide.
NVDA
- Nvidia's market cap surpasses Apple's record close $3.915 trillion
- Demand for AI chips drives Nvidia's market value surge
- Valuation exceeds total of Canadian and Mexican stock markets
- Stock hit a market value of $3.92 trillion last Thursday
Amazon Prime Day
- Expectations that sales will reach a record 23.8 BILLION
- 96 Hour event
- JCD - Have you ever got deals on Prime Day?
- First 4 hours on Tuesday - DOWN 14% as compared to 2024
CME Traders - Lawsuit
- Started in 2014 and trial just beginning
- CME Group faces former pit traders as its $2 billion trial gets underway.
- The lawsuit was forwarded by a group of veteran CME and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) traders, who claim that CME Group’s change to electronic trading more than a decade ago violated their contractual rights as members and cost them both financially and professionally.

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1 hr
July 02, 2025 DHUnplugged #759: MSGA
Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy
Banks got some good news – you can’t have a prolonged rally without the financial sector
Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement
ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging)
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

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Warm-Up
- More companies are doing this again..
- Make Showering Great Again! MSGA
- - - Twitter Poll -
- New ways to buy stocks via tokens
- Musk/Trump Feuding Again
Markets
- Month/Quarter ends and everything is just peachy
- Banks got some good news - you can't have a prolonged rally without the financial sector
- Bond yields soften a bit as Trump closer to Shadow Fed announcement
- ATH for SP 500 and NAS100 (DJIA and Russ2000 still lagging)
Historically...
- Once we know the pattern - we know what usually happens next!
Stocks by Month
Circle (CRCL)
- MONDAY: Circle reverses ground after initially trading lower on JP Morgan initiation at Underweight and $80 price target.
- Note that several analysts' targets came in above $200.
- Stock down 15% since we mentioned last week (short idea)
Good News for Showering? MSGA
- As we know, Trump has railed against modern dishwashers, washing machines, light bulbs, showerheads and toilets, claiming that onerous government regulations render them less effective and more expensive.
- On April 9, Trump issued an executive order directing certain federal agencies “to incorporate a sunset provision” into a laundry list of energy production regulations, including those covering appliances. A month later, he issued a memorandum, entitled “Rescission of Useless Water Pressure Standards.”
- Following that, on May 12, the Department of Energy announced that it was preparing to eliminate or modify 47 federal regulations “that are driving up costs and lowering quality of life for the American people.”
- Many of the rules are covered in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), a decades-old law that mandates energy-efficiency and water-conservation standards for home appliances and plumbing fixtures.
- Meanwhile, the Environmental Protection Agency said it is planning to eliminate the Energy Star program, a popular voluntary initiative that manufacturers employ to rank their appliances based on energy conservation and cost savings, displayed on familiar blue labeling at retail as comparison-shopping guides.
- Twitter Poll
Twitter Poll
Just in....
- Shares of renewable energy companies are rising after a tax on solar and wind was removed from the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
The Senate narrowly passed the legislation Tuesday and will now be considered by the House of Representatives.
The American Clean Power Association had warned that tax would up to $7 billion to the wind and solar industry’s burden.
Next Level?
- Robinhood launches stock tokens, reveals Layer 2 blockchain, and expands crypto suite in EU and US with perpetual futures and staking
- With tokenized stocks, our European app transitions from being a crypto-only app to an all-in-one investment app powered by crypto.
- European customers will have access to 200+ US stock and ETF tokens. Stock token holders will also receive dividend payments directly in their app.
Big Beautiful
- Clears first hurdle in the Senate (procedural)
- Needs to get going on the rest if they want to have it signed into legislation by July 4th
- Musk very vocal about the fact it is it is "utterly insane"
- Musk says: will “destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country!” in a post on X.
MUSK not happy
- Elon does not like the massive spending bill - which it looks like - not the cuts they promised
- Elon poking at the Republicans that vote for it and Trump not happy
- Now Trump says he is going to send DOGE in to check out all the money the government is spending on Elon's businesses. Says if cut could save the country lots of money.
No Surprise
- Twenty-two of the largest banks in the U.S. are well-positioned to weather a hypothetical severe economic downturn and continue lending, with firms maintaining robust capital levels even after suffering hundreds of billions of dollars in losses, the Federal Reserve reported on Friday.
- The results of the U.S. central bank's annual "stress test" of large banks' finances found firms remain resilient in the face of a potential recession, a spike in unemployment, and market turmoil.
- The optimistic showing could lead to banks upping how much excess capital they plan to distribute to shareholders via dividends or stock buybacks.
- Monday Headline: Goldman Sachs +2.6% trades to new all-time high, trades above $700 level for first time; move follows Fed bank stress test results late Friday
--- The XLF (Financial Sector ETF) trading near all-time highs
Florida - Do We Love This?
- Alligator Alcatraz
- Florida AG proposes 'Alligator Alcatraz' migrant detention center in Everglades
- In a video statement on Friday, Uthmeier announced the plan to build a temporary migrant detention center on a 39-square-mile parcel in the Everglades.
- "This is an airport that's already there. Clearly, from a security perspective, if someone escapes, you know, there are a lot of alligators you're going to have to contend with. No one's going anywhere once you do that. It's a safe and secure as can be," the governor said.
Oh Cana-DUH
- President Donald Trump said Friday that he had terminated trade discussions with Canada, citing an incoming Canadian tax on tech companies including those based in the U.S.
- In a post on Truth Social, Trump referred to Canada as "a very difficult country to trade with" and said that its levy on tech firms — the first payment for which is due Monday — "is a direct and blatant attack on our Country."
-"Based on this egregious Tax, we are hereby terminating ALL discussions on Trade with Canada, effective immediately," he said. "We will let Canada know the Tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America within the next seven day period."
- By Sunday night, Canada dropped their digital tax so they can resume talks
Going Down
- A massive cargo ship carrying an estimated 3,000 vehicles capsized in international waters this week, causing it to sink, according to the US Coast Guard.
- The Morning Midas, operated by the London-based company Zodiac Maritime, sank on Monday, June 23, around 5:30 p.m., officials said. The incident occurred about 450 miles southwest of Adak, Alaska.
- According to the Coast Guard, the ship carried 1,530 metric tons of very low-sulfur fuel oil, along with 350 tons of marine gas oil. Additionally, it was transporting 3,048 vehicles, including 70 electric and 681 hybrid.
- Fires started on June 3rd and finally sunk 20 days later
- It was carrying thousands of vehicles manufactured by Chinese brands, including Great Wall Motor and Chery. The ship was traveling from Yantai, China, to Lazaro Cardenas, Mexico, when a fire broke out on board
NIKE Earnings and more
- Nike reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter earnings and revenue.
- The company expects tariffs will cost it $1 billion in the current fiscal year before price increases and supply chain shifts.
- The sneaker giant said it took its biggest financial hit yet from its turnaround plan during the period, but expects sales and profit declines to moderate moving forward.
- “With the new tariff rates in place today, we estimate a gross incremental cost increase to Nike of approximately $1 billion”
- He added that the company intends to “fully mitigate” that cost over time as it tweaks its supply chain, works with its factory and retail partners and implements price increases. (16% of supply chain originated from China)
-Stock up BIG after the report...
China's EV Market
- Hong Kong-listed shares of China’s Xiaomi surged over 5% to hit a record high on Friday, a day after its electric car drew a strong response from customers.
- The consumer electronics company, a relatively newer player in the EV market, took aim straight at rival Tesla with its new electric luxury vehicle, YU7.
- The SUV’s pricing starts at 253,500 yuan ($35,322), CEO Lei Jun said Thursday, pointing out that the vehicle was 10,000 yuan cheaper than Tesla’s Model Y, which starts at 263,500 yuan in China.
- 100% Tariff on China EVs entering US (If they ever get here at all)
INTERESTING
- Companies are relying more on what is known as reverse logistics to get returned products back into the marketplace faster due to tariff costs already paid.
- Use logistics industry is experiencing significant growth, according to Alix Partners, with the U.S. market valued at $150 billion in 2024 and projected to grow between 6%-8% through 2030.
“Returns can be a key salvation for companies to keep costs down. Tariffs are making new goods more expensive,” said Casey Chroust, chief operating officer of returns management software company Optoro.
- The segment of the supply chain responsible for the fast turnaround of returns is known as reverse logistics, where retailers inspect returned items and determine if they can be resold, repaired, or recycled, or if they need to be disposed. The more efficiently a retailer can manage the reverse logistics process, the faster the product can be resold — either at full price online or in-store, or at a discount at a retailer’s outlet channels.
Seeing More of This:
- Bumble shares rallied 25% last Wednesday after the dating app company revealed in a securities filing that it intends to slash 30% of its workforce, or about 240 roles.
- The layoffs will result in $13 million to $18 million in charges for the company hitting in the third and fourth quarters of this year. Management estimates that the reductions will help the company save $40 million annually.
- IN other words.... Layoffs are being rewarded by investors (which means that more companies will probably announce soon)

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1 hr 2 min
June 25, 2025 DHUnplugged #758: Dropping the Hammer
WAR! (or is it?)
Tesla Robotaxi Update
Japan’s rice problem
Drink up! New guidelines coming…
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Warm-Up
- WAR! (or is it?)
- Tesla Robotaxi Update
- Japan's rice problem
- Drink up! New guidelines coming...
Markets
- Not phased by Iranian attack - (well planned attack for markets - timing, newsflow and narrative of "successful mission")
- A ceasefire now - quick wars!
- P/E forward nearing 22
- Leading indicators - dropping
- VERY Resilient overall - dips are for buying
- NASDAQ 100 closing in on all-time highs - triple top
Dropping the F Bomb - 7am CNBC
- " Two counties that have been that have been fighting so long and so hard that they do not know what the "F***ck" they are doing"
Oil
- Drops from high of $78 to $66
- Iran bombing news spikes the price on Sunday night - and then....free fall....
Tesla
- Everyone is a flutter about the RoboTaxi test in Austin
- Stock moved up 10% on the news Monday
-- Everyone knows it is a long haul - but the hope and the promise is something that investors live on
- Tesla Robotaxis spotted speeding, making improper turns on first day of service, according to Bloomberg
HAMMER
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Dan Caine, in a news conference Sunday, reviewed operational details of Saturday’s “Operation Midnight Hammer,” the well-concealed strikes against nuclear development facilities in Iran that both men called an “incredible and overwhelming success.”
- “We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan,” President Donald Trump said Saturday.
- Bunker Buster Bombs - lots of them
- Was it a success?
-- Monday: Iran coordinated the attacks on U.S. base in Qatar and gave officials advance warning to minimize casualties
Interesting
- Online job listing company CareerBuilder + Monster filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Tuesday.
Leading Indicators
- A measure of future U.S. economic activity fell in May for the sixth straight month and triggered a recession signal, held down by consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims and a drop in building permit applications.
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline matched the consensus expectation among economists polled by Reuters.
- "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal," she said.
"The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026."
Global Rates and Central Banks - Update
World Rates
Japan's Rice Problem
- Rice prices in Japan more than doubled in May, spiking 101.7% year over year and marking their largest increase in over half a century.
- The huge spike follows a 98.4% increase in April, and a rise of 92.1% year over year in March.
- Japan’s rice prices have been in the spotlight in recent times, with the government releasing emergency stockpiles to moderate the price of the country’s staple food.
- The surge in rice prices comes as Japan’s core inflation rate climbed to 3.7% in May, marking its highest level since January 2023.
- The figure — which strips out costs for fresh food — was higher than the 3.6% expected by economists polled by Reuters, and is above April’s reading of 3.5%.
Since Warren's Announcement
- That retreat translates into roughly fifteen percentage points of underperformance versus the benchmark?S&P?500 index over the period since the announcement
- Analysts attribute a sizable portion of the decline to the fading of the so?called “Buffett premium” that had been embedded in Berkshire’s valuation for decades.
- Note: Operating earnings, which capture performance at wholly owned insurance, railroad, energy, and manufacturing subsidiaries, fell fourteen?percent year over year to?$9.64?billion - so there is that too...
Drink Up!
- The U.S. government is expected to eliminate from its dietary guidelines the long-standing recommendation that adults limit alcohol consumption to one or two drinks per day, according to three sources familiar with the matter
- The updated Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which could be released as early as this month, are expected to include a brief statement encouraging Americans to drink in moderation or limit alcohol intake due to associated health risks.
Fed Rate Decision
- The U.S. central bank held interest rates steady and policymakers signaled that borrowing costs are still likely to fall this year.
- But Powell cautioned against putting too much weight on that, saying he expects "meaningful" inflation ahead from the Trump administration's tariffs.
- "No one holds these ... rate paths with a great deal of conviction, and everyone would agree that they're all going to be data dependent," Powell said.
- In new economic projections, policymakers sketched a modestly stagflationary picture of the economy, with growth in 2025 slowing to 1.4%, unemployment rising to 4.5% and inflation ending the year at 3%, well above the current level.
- Policymaker projections show two rate cuts still seen in 2025
- Year-end inflation projection higher at 3%, growth lower at 1.4%
AI for Marketers
- Reddit announced a “listening tool” called Reddit Insights, which shares real-time insights with marketers to help them identify trends and launch campaigns.
- The other tool, called Conversation Summary Add-ons, allows brands to show “positive” user content under their ads.
- Following the Meta (Facebook) move to have AI run marketing campaigns (cutting out the middle man)
- “These are tools for a new era of community marketing, one where brands can tap into Reddit’s authenticity and connect meaningfully with high-intent communities around the world,” the company wrote.
- Sounds like they are just preying on free-userbase
Airlines - Cutting Routes
- U.S. carriers have announced plans to trim capacity, particularly in the second half of the year, as bookings for domestic travel came in weaker than expected this year and fares fell.
- Airfare in May was down 7.3% compared with last year, according to U.S. Department of Labor’s inflation report.
- JetBlue and other airlines pulled their 2025 financial forecasts, citing economic uncertainty that executives said made it difficult to predict demand.
- JetBlue will further cut off-peak flights and trim unprofitable routes. It will also pause plans to retrofit four of its older Airbus A320 jets with new interiors and park them, while the six remaining jets slated for the refurbishment are still on track for next year
Canva
- Canva has grown into a $32 billion startup through its popular design tools used for easily creating images, marketing material and presentations.
- Now the company, with its 12th acquisition, is buying its way into the analytics market.
- Canva said on Tuesday that it’s buying MagicBrief, whose technology is used for analyzing ad performance, for an undisclosed sum. With MagicBrief, companies can track spending and engagement on their ads and see what’s working well for competitors.
- Around 240 million people use Canva’s products, which compete with offerings from Adobe’s
Creative Cloud.
Trump Phone
- Donald Trump's family business licensed its name to launch a U.S. mobile service and a $499 smartphone on Monday, calling it Trump Mobile, in the latest deal brokered by the president's children to capitalize on his last name while he is in office.
- The new mobile venture, announced at Trump Tower in Manhattan, will operate using the networks of the three major U.S. wireless carriers.
- The phone will likely be produced by a Chinese original device manufacturer, one analyst says.
- The phone is advertised to have a 6.8-inch AMOLED display and 50-megapixel camera.
Retail Sales
- Consumer spending pulled back sharply in May, weighed down by declining gas sales and looming unease over where the economy is headed, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.
- Retail sales declined 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. The decline followed a 0.1% loss in April and came at a time of unease over tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Sales rose 3.3% from a year ago.
-Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, also worse than the estimate for a gain of 0.1%.
China Data
- Retail sales jumped 6.4% from a year earlier in May, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 5% growth and accelerating from the 5.1% growth in the previous month.
- Growth in industrial output slowed to 5.8% year-on-year in May, slightly weaker than analysts’ expectations for a 5.9% rise.
- Fixed-asset investment, reported on a year-to-date basis, expanded 3.7% this year as of May from a year earlier.
- he urban survey-based unemployment rate in May came in at 5.0%, the lowest level since November last year.
Greenpeace and Bezos
- Global environmental lobby Greenpeace added its voice on Monday to protests against this week's celebrity wedding in Venice between American tech billionaire Jeff Bezos and journalist Lauren Sanchez.
- "The problem is not the wedding, the problem is the system. We think that one big billionaire can't rent a city for his pleasure," Simona Abbate, one of the protesters, told Reuters.

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1 hr 4 min
June 18, 2025DHUnplugged #757: Storm Alert
A parade of pauses
WAR! Middle East at it again
Oracle earnings – wow!
Tesla robotaxi spotted
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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** Look At Album Art ** - So bad
Warm-Up
- More pausing floated
- We have a CHYNA deal - kind of
- Saying goodbye to Brian Wilson
- Tesla - back in buy mode
Markets
- War! Middle East again (US seems to be helping ?)
- Within 2% if ATH and then...
- Oracle blows the roof off
- UK economy shrinks - bigly
***A NEW Closest to the Pin!
Middle East Again
- Israel launched a series of airstrikes against Iran early Friday morning local time, targeting locations it said were related to Iran’s nuclear program, sparking market fears of a wider conflict.
- Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, chief of the Iranian Armed Forces and the country’s most senior military official, was killed during the strikes, alongside the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, Iranian state media reported.
- The Israeli airstrikes also targeted and killed two of Iran’s leading nuclear scientists, Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, according to Iranian news outlets.
- Odd timing?
- Markets initially took it better than expected - until Iran stuck back
Valuations
- As of the most recent update on June 5, 2025, the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 21.70. This reflects a decline from 22.44 in the previous quarter and 25.20 one year ago, 10 -year average is about 19
PE Forward Chart
Something we discussed on TDI
- Presidential Cycles
- The U.S. stock market tends to follow a four-year cycle aligned with presidential terms. Historically, the first year of a president’s second term (4 years apart in this case) often mirrors the first year of a new presidency in terms of market behavior—marked by uncertainty, policy re-calibration, and sometimes muted performance
- While the first half of the first year can be choppy due to post-election adjustments and early policy moves, the second half—especially Q4—has historically shown stronger performance. This is often attributed to:
Stabilizing policy direction after early-year volatility
Investor optimism around fiscal planning and budget cycles
Seasonal tailwinds like the holiday rally and year-end portfolio rebalancing
Presidential Cycle
UK Economy- This is why we need to dig further than the headline (more beneath the surface)
- The U.K. economy shrank sharply in April as global trade tariffs and domestic tax rises kicked in, data showed Thursday.
- The latest monthly growth figures from the Office for National Statistics showed the U.K. economy contracted 0.3% month on month in April, following growth of 0.2% in March.
- It was also more than the 0.1% fall economists were expecting.
- “After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States with decreases seen across most types of goods, following the recent introduction of tariffs,”
--- The real culprit:
----- Domestic tax rises have also been blamed for the steep decline in economic activity. British businesses have been confronted with an increase in national insurance contributions and rise in the minimum age from the start of April, while a temporary tax break on property purchases also came to an end in March.
- ----The change in the Stamp Duty Land Tax (paid when buying property or land) in April meant there was a decrease of 63.5% in U.K. residential property transactions from the previous month, the ONS noted, with buyers rushing to complete purchases before the tax break ended.
US Economy
- U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in May as cheaper gasoline partially offset higher rents, but inflation is expected to accelerate in the coming months on the back of the Trump administration's import tariffs.
- Consumer price index increases 0.1% in May
- Foods prices rise 0.3%; but eggs a bit cheaper (eggs discussion)
- CPI advances 2.4% year-on-year
- Core CPI gains 0.1%; increases 2.8% year-on-year
CPI Chart
Oracle Earnings
- Stock goes vertical
- Shares rose about 13% Thursday after the software maker reported results that exceeded Wall Street estimates and signaled that cloud growth will accelerate.
Here’s how the company did in comparison with LSEG consensus:
- Earnings per share: $1.70 adjusted vs. $1.64 expected
- Revenue: $15.9 billion vs. $15.59 billion expected
- Revenue increased 11% year over year during the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended on May 31, according to a statement.
- Net income rose to $3.43 billion, or $1.19 per share, from $3.14 billion, or $1.11 per share, in the same quarter last year.
- Cloud infrastructure revenue should increase more than 70% in the 2026 fiscal year, up from growth of 52% in the quarter, CEO Safra Catz said on a conference call with analysts.
- She called for more than $67 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue, compared with the LSEG consensus of $65.18 billion.
Tesla
- Stock back in buy mode
- After the "fight" Elon back in the CEO Chair
- RoboTaxi carrot being used
- Austin - 2 Robotaxi's been spottted
- Will use their own ride hailing service (Uber, Lyft repercussions?)
- ELON: "These are unmodified Tesla cars coming straight from the factory, meaning that every Tesla coming out of our factories is capable of unsupervised self-driving!"
Amazon
- Amazon is now restructuring its health business, stating that Amazon Health Services will be divided into six new units, with a goal of creating a simpler structure.|
Amazon Clinic: (now Amazon One Medical Pay-per-visit): A virtual care service for common conditions, allowing patients to consult with doctors online.
One Medical: A concierge primary care clinic, offering membership-based access to virtual and in-person care, including same and next-day appointments.
Amazon Pharmacy: An online pharmacy that delivers prescription medications and offers access to a wide range of medications.
Amazon Care: A hybrid, in-person, and virtual healthcare service primarily for Amazon employees and other employers, offering telehealth and in-person visits.
Amazon Health Benefits Connector: A service that connects customers with digital health programs and benefits offered by their employer or insurance plan.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) Health Services: AWS provides various cloud-based solutions for healthcare providers, including services for data analytics, AI, and secure data storage.
- Spaceballs
- Bill Pullman and Rick Moranis are set to reprise their respective roles as Lone Starr and Dark Helmet in the new Spaceballs movie from Amazon MGM Studios, with Keke Palmer (One of Them Days) joining the cast, sources tell Deadline.
- Year of original?
---- More Movie news - 50th anniversary of Jaws! June 20, 1975
CHY-NA "Deal" - LOLOLOLOLOL
- We got magnets and rare earths
- 55% Tariffs on China imports (select) and 10% on US to China
- China began restricting exports of rare earth elements and magnets to the U.S. on April 4, 2025, in retaliation for new U.S. tariffs introduced under the so-called “Liberation Day” policy.
- Initially, the restrictions targeted seven types of rare earths and were expanded five days later to include 12 more U.S. firms
- China paused these export restrictions on May 14, 2025, following a breakthrough trade agreement with the U.S. The deal included a 90-day suspension of the export curbs and a major rollback of reciprocal tariffs.
- "We made a great deal with China. We're very happy with it," Trump told reporters before a performance at Washington's Kennedy Center on Wednesday evening. "We have everything we need, and we're going to do very well with it. And hopefully they are too."
Shadow Fed
- Talking about this again
- The White House might consider using a shadow chair to accelerate the influence it can exert on the Fed and to avoid the more drastic step of removing the current chair
- Bessent says he is not interested in the position
- Would have to be a DOVE
- Trump, who made that statement last Friday while speaking with reporters, also said he has a “pretty good idea” of who he’s considering for the post, though he didn’t reveal any names.
- “Bottom line, this would be a high-risk move for the administration in a bid to provide dovish forward guidance and support the U.S. economy, because the undermining of the Fed could have serious consequences for foundational assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries,”
U.S Steel
- Official - The Merger of US Steel and Nippon Steel is approved by the US
- President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Friday approving U.S. Steel’s merger with Japan’s Nippon Steel, after the companies signed a national security agreement with the U.S. government. (?Why was EO needed?)
- U.S. Steel and Nippon said the national security agreement will give the U.S. government a “golden share” and makes certain commitments related to governance, domestic production, and trade. The companies did not elaborate on what powers the U.S. government will wield with its golden share.
- Trump said Thursday that the golden share gives the president “total control” without elaborating.
>US Credit Not So Hot
- Sweden: S&P 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
- Germany: S&P 'AAA/A-1+' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
- Recall that the US was already lower by S&P and knocked down by Moody's last month.
- USA AA+ Rating: This rating indicates that S&P considers the US to have a very strong capacity to meet its financial obligations. It is one notch below the highest possible rating of AAA
Cape Ratio and Valuations
- As of the latest update, the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 stands at ~21.50. This marks a decline from 22.44 in the previous quarter and a more notable drop from 25.20 a year ago.
- While still elevated relative to the 10-year average of approximately 19, the recent moderation suggests a slight cooling in valuation expectations, possibly reflecting a more cautious outlook on earnings growth or a recalibration of risk premiums.
- In other words, valuations have cooled, but they’re still running a bit warm.
- Historically, a high CAPE ratio has been associated with lower future returns, while lower CAPE levels have often preceded stronger long-term performance.
CAPE RATIO

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58 min
June 11, 2025 DHUnplugged #756: Mutual Assured Destruction
Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement
Trial Balloons – Next Fed Chair thoughts
Excitement over China talks
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Interactive Brokers
Warm-Up
- Trial Balloons - Next Fed Chair
- Everyone loves to hate China these days
- Trump and Musk breakup
- Your DNA may be for sale
Markets
- Retail shares have wide earnings outcomes
- Plenty of Buy-the-Dip excitement
- Excitement over China talks - Lutnik is showing the thumb-up
- Who is buying?
Powell Replacement
- President Trump considering naming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to succeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026, according to Bloomberg
- Just floating the idea (Trial balloon) at this point - YES!
--- Proof - Wait 45 minutes:
- White House official tells Reuters that Bloomberg reporting is "false" that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is being considered for Fed Chair
China - Everyone loves to hate
- China’s May factory activity unexpectedly shrinks as tariffs dent sentiment — worst drop since 2022
- China’s manufacturing activity in May shrank at its fastest pace since September 2022, a private survey showed Tuesday, as a sharper decline in new export orders highlighted the impact of prohibitive U.S. tariffs.
- The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 48.3, missing Reuters’ median estimate of 50.6 and dropping sharply from 50.4 in April. It fell below 50, the mark that separates growth from contraction, for the first time since September last year.
China Eco
Who is Buying and Selling?
- When President Donald Trump set off a global stock market slump in April with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs, small investors across Asia rushed to the US stock market to buy the dip.
-Retail investors in South Korea turned net sellers of US equities in May for the first time since before Trump’s election victory, while Japanese accounts became net sellers of US exchange-traded funds, according to official data.
- The number of Singapore traders buying US stocks fell by a quarter in May from the previous period.
Trump Musk Divorce (Mutual Assured Destruction)
- Trump says Elon Musk went ‘CRAZY,’ suggests cutting government contracts for his companies
- “The easiest way to save money in our Budget, Billions and Billions of Dollars, is to terminate Elon’s Governmental Subsidies and Contracts,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. ”I was always surprised that Biden didn’t do it!”
- Trump wished Elon "very well" in a presser on Monday night
- “I took away his EV Mandate that forced everyone to buy Electric Cars that nobody else wanted (that he knew for months I was going to do!), and he just went CRAZY!” Trump wrote in the social media post.
-- Musk fired back with pictures of Trump with Jeffrey Epstein and backed impeachment
- “I asked him to leave,” Trump claimed. Musk called that “an obvious lie.”
- - - - Does either one of these guys know the truth from a lie?
-- Telsa stock dove harder than Trump's ratings post election on the spat
BUT BUT
- Wasn't the point of hiring Musk and the DOGE to reduce waste, fraud and abuse?
- - Lots of positive thoughts on the job he was doing
- Now that he found waste in the Big Beautiful Bill - he is banished???
Palantir CEO
- CEO Alex Karp said the artificial intelligence arms race between the U.S. and China will culminate in one country coming out on top.
- “My general bias on AI is it is dangerous,” Karp told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “There are positive and negative consequences, and either we win or China will win.”
- Either way - Palantir wins - right?
Select Retail
- Last week we saw shares of Dollar General move higher
- Lululemon shares hit the skids (we own this for clients) -
--- LULU eat Wall Street expectations for fiscal first-quarter earnings Thursday, but cut its full-year earnings guidance, citing a “dynamic macroenvironment.”
Central Banks
- India’s central bank delivered an outsized cut to its benchmark policy rate, bringing it to 5.5% from 6%, its lowest level since August 2022.
- This also marks a third straight rate cut since February, and comes below the median estimates of 5.75% in a Reuters poll.
- Expectations are for a GDP of 6.5% this year (was 9.2% last year)
US Employment
- Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.
- Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and a bit below the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.
- The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
- U6 A more encompassing measure that includes discouraged workers and the underemployed also was unchanged, holding at 7.8%.
- Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared with respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.
Employment

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More China - Just in...
- China consumer prices slump again, deepening deflation worries as demand stays weak
- China’s consumer prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in May, as Beijing’s stimulus measures appear insufficient to boost domestic consumption, with price wars in the auto sector adding to downward pressure.
- The consumer price index fell 0.1% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Monday, compared with Reuters’ median estimate of a 0.2% decline.
- CPI slipped into negative territory in February, falling 0.7% from a year ago, and has continued to post year-on-year declines of 0.1% in March, April, and now May.
Goldilocks
- Jensen Huang (NVDA) poured praise on the U.K. on Monday, promising to boost investment in the country’s artificial intelligence sector with his multitrillion-dollar semiconductor company.
- “The U.K. is in a Goldilocks circumstance,” Huang said, speaking on a panel with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Investment Minister Poppy Gustafsson. “You can’t do machine learning without a machine — and so the ability to build these AI supercomputers here in the U.K. will naturally attract more startups.”
- Huang also stressed that Britain “has one of the richest AI communities anywhere on the planet,” along with “amazing startups” such as DeepMind, Wayve, Synthesia and ElevenLabs.
Student Loans
- Every May, interest rates on new federal student loans are recalculated for the upcoming school year. For the 2025-2026 school year, interest rates will decrease slightly but still remain near record highs.
- Undergrad loans moving from 6.53% to 6.39%
DNA 4 Sale
- 23 & Me bankrupcy is taking a weird turn
- What happens to the data?
- NY AG Letitia James says "My office and a group of AGs are suing 23andMe to protect Americans' private information from being sold to the highest bidder
- 23andMe cannot auction the personal genetic information of millions of New Yorkers and others around the nation without their consent.
Apple WWDC
- Underwhelms - yet again
- Apple TV Karaoke Machine
- Live translation (text and Facetime)
- Liquid Glass iOS redesign
- Renumbering OS to 26 (year by year now)
GreenDot Assist
- Starbucks plans to roll out a generative AI assistant created with Microsoft Azure’s OpenAI platform to 35 locations this month as part of its strategy to simplify baristas’ jobs and speed up service in its cafes.
- Instead of flipping through manuals or accessing Starbucks’ intranet, baristas will be able to use a tablet behind the counter equipped with Green Dot Assist to get answers to a range of questions, from how to make an iced shaken espresso to troubleshooting equipment errors. Baristas can either type or verbally ask their queries in conversational language.
--- User manual? Training?
Talking about CharGPT
- OpenAI has hit $10 billion in annual recurring revenue
- OpenAI is also targeting $125 billion in revenue by 2029, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be named because the details are confidential

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1 hr 5 min
June 04, 2025 DHUnplugged #755: Smoking Mirrors
Set your clock - must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposed
Someone wants the Fed Chair job
TACO FAFO and more...
More muddy AI cover art
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Must be the weekend - New Tariffs imposed
- Someone wants the Fed Chair job
- TACO FAFO and more...
- More muddy AI cover art
Markets
- YUGE move for markets
- Tariffs reinstated by Appeals court - for now
- Hope for a spending bill - SPENDING BILLS
- Retailers still worried - apparel stores not happy
More tariffs
- President Donald Trump told U.S. steelworkers on Friday that he will double tariffs on steel imports to 50%.
- “We’re going to bring it from 25% to 50%, the tariffs on steel into the United States of America,” Trump said during remarks at U.S. Steel’s Irvin Works in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania. The president said the steep tariffs would “further secure the steel industry.”
- “At 25%, they can sort of get over that fence,” Trump said. “At 50%, they can no longer get over the fence.”
- Shares of mining company Cleveland-Cliffs popped roughly 22% following the announcement, while Steel Dynamics jumped more than 13% and Nucor was up more than 12%
Tariffs
- Court Strikes them down - something we discussed a bit on the legality of tariffs in the way they were impose to begin with
- Appeals court reinstates temporarily
- Did you see Howard Lutnik? Like putty in Trump hands, saying how Trump will win, he always wins, he is such a winner, no one can negotiate like Trump - on and one in a press conference.
Economic Downtick
- The U.S. growth outlook was downwardly revised to just 1.6% this year and 1.5% in 2026. In March, the OECD was still expecting a 2.2% expansion in 2025.
- “Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% this year and in 2026 ... on the technical assumption that tariff rates as of mid-May are sustained despite ongoing legal challenges,” the OECD said.
- It had previously forecast global growth of 3.1% this year and 3% in 2026
Big Month
- NASDAQ up 9.6% for May
- S&P 500 up 6%
- Some calling it a Bear Market Bounce
- Valuations getting toward top end again
- Breath is poor again - BIG Names pulling most up
- Tech was big driver in May
- Best month for S&P 500 since November 2023
Someone Looking to Be Appointed
- Kevin Warsh (Brown Nose Warsh) Says Fed Officials Shouldn’t Be ‘Pampered Princes,’ Defends Trump’s Criticism of the Bank
- Leading name for the next Fed Chair
- defended the president’s right to criticize the central bank, saying the Fed is too big and politically exposed.
--- He is showing how political it can be with this kind of populist view
Inflation Report
- PCE moved to 2.1% on April (lower than expected)
- Core inflation also was at 0.1% for the month though it was higher on an annual level at 2.5%.
- Consumer spending, though, slowed sharply for the month, posting just a 0.2% increase.
- The savings rate surged to 4.9%, the highest in nearly a year.
- Food prices fell 0.3% on the month while energy goods and services increased 0.5%. Shelter costs, which has been one of the most stubborn inflation components, increased 0.4%.
-- Put all of that together - consumers are pulling back
New and Old Acronyms making waves
- MEGA (Make Europe Great Again)
- MAGA (Make America Go Away)
- TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)
- FAFO (Fuck Around and Find Out)
----It is used to capture the financial market's volatility and chaos that Trump's policymaking process has created
Dell Earnings
- Dell Technologies reported fiscal first-quarter earnings that missed Wall Street expectations, but the company beat on revenue and offered a stronger-than-expected forecast for the current quarter.
- Dell said it expects $2.25 in adjusted earnings per share for the current quarter, with between $28.5 billion and $29.5 billion in revenue. That was significantly higher than LSEG expectations.
- Seemingly strong results, but earning missed and revenue came in in-line. Investors not impressed after absorbing the info.
HP Earnings
- Headline: HP sinks 15% as company misses on earnings, guidance due to ‘added cost’ from tariffs
- HP reported better-than-expected revenue on Wednesday, but the company missed on earnings and issued disappointing guidance.
- The company said its outlook “reflects the added cost driven by the current U.S. tariffs,” as well as the associated mitigations.
- HP CEO Enrique Lores said that the company has increased production in Vietnam, Thailand, India, Mexico and the U.S.
- Earnings per share: 71 cents adjusted vs. 80 cents expected
- - - “Through our actions, we expect to fully mitigate the increased trade-related costs by Q4,” Lores said--- BUT WAIT!
- Revenue: $13.22 billion vs. $13.14 billion expected
NVDA Earnings
- Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, as the company’s booming data center business recorded year-over-year growth above 73%.
- The stock rose about 6% in extended trading.
- Overall revenue grew 69% during the quarter, and sales in the company’s data center division, which includes AI chips and related parts, grew 73%.
- Earnings per share: 96 cents adjusted vs. 93 cents expected
- Revenue: $44.06 billion vs. $43.31 billion expected
- Nvidia said its gross margin of 61% for the quarter would have been 71.3% if not for the China-related charge.
Gap Earnings
- Headline: Gap shares plummet as retailer says tariffs could cost between $100 million and $150 million
- Tariffs could cost the company between $250 million and $300 million, it said, but with mitigation efforts it expects the cost to be between $100 million and $150 million."
- Gap said it’s already mitigated about half of those costs and without further action, the cost is expected to be between $100 million and $150 million, which will likely show up on the balance sheet in the back half of the year. The company said it’s going to build on its mitigation efforts by continuing to diversify its supply chain and reducing its exposure to China.
- Shares down hard on this
- question: What i they diversify to some other country that comes under fire?
--- These brands have a target on their head - margins big concern (even if they manufacture all here in USA)
META Moving Up
- Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) believes its artificial intelligence tools could soon fully automate the process of creating advertising campaigns, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The news was viewed as positive for Meta stock but could be bad news for some major advertising firms.
- Meta aims to offer a tool that "enable brands to fully create and target ads using artificial intelligence by the end of next year,"
- "Over the long-term, advertisers will basically just be able to tell us a business objective and a budget and we're going to go do the rest for them,"
---- How is this different from a n ad agency - META will do it better? Capture the best advertisement for eyeballs and cheaper - is that the plan?
--- Don't the advertisers want a wall between the ad agency and the media it is played on.
==== Lots of questions, but investors seem to like the idea of a one stop shop
ELON
- Ketamine haze - did you see the clips from when he was saying goodbye in Oval office
- And how he was gazing up looking how cool the gold eagle was on the ceiling of the oval office
- Eyes rolling, head swaying
==== Reports out Monday about sales of Tesla in Europe - very poor (so Elon back on the Robotaxi promise again to hang the carrot out there)
South Korea
- South Korea’s central bank expectedly cuts its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%.
- That marked the central bank’s fourth cut in the current easing cycle.
- The central bank slashes GDP forecast, plans more rate cuts ahead. |- The BOK monetary policy board attributed the rate cut decision to its expectations that economic growth will “decline considerably” while inflation remains “broadly stable,” according to its statement. (When have you heard that level of dire outlook from a central bank?)
New Clear Energy Deals
- Meta has signed a 20-year agreement to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy.
- Beginning in 2027, the tech giant will purchase about 1.1 gigawatts of power from Constellation’s Clinton Clean Energy Center in Illinois. Without -Meta’s backing, the plant was in danger of premature closure.
- Tech companies, including Amazon, Google and Meta, signed a pledge in March led by the World Nuclear Association calling for nuclear energy worldwide to triple by 2050.

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1 hr 5 min
May 28, 2025 DHUnplugged #754: Waffling Tactics
Waffles for the Win
Workarounds are the thing to avoid onerous tariffs
Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite
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Warm-Up
- Waffles for the Win
- Workarounds are the thing
- Learning about the First Sale Rule
Markets
- 42 Days? And counting
- Investors starting to think that bark is worse than the bite
- US Steel Deal - WOW!
- Fresh steam for speculation - lots of movement
Waffling
- What are your favorite way to eat waffles?
- Friday - 50% on Europe - Blah Blah
- 25% on Apple and every smartphone maker that brings in product to USA
- Sunday - Delay the Europe tariffs until July 9th
- Not sure where we are on
Results
- Markets swoon on the initial Europe Tariff announcement
- Markets (Overnight Futures) Popped higher on the Waffle
- Apple will look to eat and see a cut to margins -
---- Surely Apple will promise to build plants in the US and slow role it to get some relief
--- Apple recently announced a 250,000-square-foot advanced manufacturing facility in Houston that is expected to begin operations in 2026, indicating a timeline of roughly 1.5 to 2 years from announcement to production start (managed by Foxconn - manufacturing AI Driver Servers
China - Not bad
- China’s industrial profits rose for a second straight month in April, with their growth improving despite U.S. tariffs and persistent deflationary pressures, thanks to Beijing’s measures aimed at supporting businesses.
- Cumulative profits at major industrial firms climbed 3% last month compared to a year earlier, official data showed Tuesday, accelerating from a 2.6% growth in March.
- In the first four months this year, industrial profits rose 1.4%, year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bolstered by stronger earnings in the equipment and high-tech manufacturing sectors.
Facts though first:
- Foxconn’s Zhengzhou campus in China, often called “iPhone City,” spans over 1.4 million square meters (15 million square feet) and employs hundreds of thousands of workers. Approx 80% of Apple's annual iPhone production)
-- To replicate this in the U.S., Apple would likely need multiple facilities totaling 10–15 million square feet or more, depending on automation levels and vertical integration.
First Sale Rule
- Love this!-
- The first sale rule has been around since 1988
--- This is why markets/stocks/companies will always win
- The “first sale rule” is a concept in U.S. customs law that allows importers to use the lowest cost of a good to calculate duties.
- Under U.S. customs law, the first sale rule allows importers to base customs duties on the price of the initial transaction in a multi-tiered supply chain.
Example scenario:
A Chinese manufacturer sells a t-shirt to a Hong Kong vendor for $5.
The Hong Kong vendor resells it to a U.S. retailer for $10.
The U.S. retailer sells it to consumers for $40.
- Using the first sale rule, the U.S. retailer can declare the $5 price for customs purposes, rather than the $10 resale price.
- This approach reduces the duty owed by excluding the middleman’s markup.
Asked AI to make easier to understand in an infographic
AI Info-graphic
Boeing Update
- The U.S. Justice Department said Friday that it has reached a deal with Boeing
- That will allow the aircraft maker to avoid prosecution over two crashes of its 737 Max planes that killed 346 people.
- The non-prosecution agreement would allow Boeing, a major military contractor and top U.S. exporter, to avoid being labeled a felon.
- The decision means Boeing won’t face trial as scheduled next month, as crash victims’ family members have urged for years.
- Out of the woods? A buy yet?
Wednesday - Big Day
- NVDA earnings
- Expectations are still for a good level of growth - but tempered bu reality
- In focus will be Blackwell chips and plans for China's AI market
New Clear Energy Update
- Friday - Trump Administration ordered the nation's independent nuclear regulatory commission to cut down on regulations and fast-track new licenses for reactors and power plants, seeking to shrink a multi-year process down to 18 months.
- The requirement was part of a batch of executive orders signed by Trump on Friday that aim to boost U.S. nuclear energy production amid a boom in demand from data centers and artificial intelligence.
- Stocks in the sector took off (we have on on the weekly picks)
- NuScale (SMR) is the only US Company with an SMR design approved by regulators.
Supreme Court on the FED
- The Supreme Court on Thursday strongly suggested that Federal Reserve board members would have special protection against being fired by a president in a ruling that, for now, allows President Donald Trump to fire two members of other federal agencies’ boards.
- “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the majority ruling said.
- In summary- A President is not prohibited from Firing a Fed official, it suggests that the Supreme court will be very resistant of approving.
---Markets will breath a sigh of relief on this
US Steel
- President Donald Trump on Friday cleared the merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel, after the Japanese steelmaker’s previous bid to acquire its U.S. rival had been blocked on national security grounds. ($%% per share + investment)
- “This will be a planned partnership between United States Steel and Nippon Steel, which will create at least 70,000 jobs, and add $14 Billion Dollars to the U.S. Economy,” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social.
- U.S. Steel’s headquarters will remain in Pittsburgh and the bulk of the investment will take place over the next 14 months, the president said. U.S. Steel shares surged more than 20% to close at $52.01 per share after Trump’s announcement.
-- US Steel currently employees 21k - how we getting to 70k?
- US Steel did $15 billion in revenue last year and we are going to $14 billion additional to the US economy?
- Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported.($4 Billion promised to build new steel mill)
Jony!
- OpenAI said last Wednesday that it’s buying Jony Ive’s AI devices startup io for about $6.4 billion in an all-equity deal that pushes the artificial intelligence company firmly into the world of hardware.
- Ive is taking on “deep creative and design responsibilities across OpenAI and io,” the company said in a statement.
- OpenAI said io is coming in-house, while Ive and his “creative collective” called LoveFrom will stay independent.
- In a blog post Wednesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Ive said that io was founded a year ago by Ive, along with Apple alumni Scott Cannon, Tang Tan and Evans Hankey, who briefly took over Ive’s role at Apple after he departed.
Caving in...
- Nike will resume selling its products directly to Amazon in the U.S. for the first time since 2019, CNBC has confirmed.
- The sneaker giant stopped selling its goods wholesale on Amazon six years ago as part of a push to distribute more directly to customers and have greater control over the shopping experience. At the time, Nike and several brands like popular shoemaker Birkenstock cut ties with Amazon due to rising concerns around counterfeit products on the company’s sprawling third-party marketplace.
- Can't compete....
Take Private?
- After Sketchers news last month - there is talk about other retailers looking to go private
- “The breakneck pace of the instability, the volatility, and the macro changes have made board members start thinking, ‘Would it be better to manage this business in private where we don’t have to report out to the street with the same quarterly cadence and where we can control operational, financial, and capital allocation decisions in private?’” said Kurt Anthony, head of consumer and retail investment banking for the Americas at UBS.
- Hard hit by tariffs - looking for alternatives - maybe start thinking about take out candidates?
Now They Are Serious
- Southwest Airlines is ending its long-standing policy of free checked bags and introducing a new basic fare on Wednesday as the carrier aims to attract new customers and boost profitability.
- Most passengers will be charged $35 for their first checked bag and $45 for their second checked bag for flights booked and or changed on or after Wednesday, marking a major shift in its customer-friendly pricing model.
Must Have Musk
- "Back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in conference/server/factory rooms," the billionaire posted on X. "I must be super focused on ?/xAI and Tesla (plus Starship launch next week), as we have critical technologies rolling out."
- So that is it? DOGE .... What is final tally of savings?"
- Tesla shareholders happy about this - stock up 7%

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1 hr 3 min
May 21, 2025 DHUnplugged #753: Big and Beautiful
The dreaded downgrade.
Biden's health in the spotlight.
The big and beautiful Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- The dreaded downgrade
- Biden's health in the spotlight
- Tax bill making its way through the sausage factory
- China continues to stimulate
Markets
- Yields - moving up after worrying signs for US debt levels
- Stocks posting big gains for May
- Bitcoin surges past $100k
- Our debt load is untenable - great chart to consider
The Big Beautiful Bill
- The bill eliminates taxes on tips and overtime.
- The bill achieves "no tax on social security" by increasing deductions for seniors on the program.
- The bill eliminates several green energy spending programs and ends the EV tax credit early.
- The bill makes auto loan interest tax deductible.
- The bill raises the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
- The bill raises the State and Local Tax Deduction to $30,000 for people making $400K or less.
- The bill makes changes to the IRS free tax filing program, pending review by a task force.
- The bill includes tax on college endowments and private foundations.
- The bill includes reforms for how pharmacy benefit managers do business with the government.
- The bill creates a new savings account for children, and $1000 of funding will be provided.
- The bill raises the child tax credit to $2500 from $2000.
USD DEBT
Moody's
- U.S. Treasury yields spiked on Monday after Moody's downgraded the U.S.' credit rating, citing fiscal concerns.
- That brings it down one notch from Aaa — the highest score — to Aa1
- The first time since the initial rating back in 1919 that Moody's made a change
- Interesting timing - in the middle of a big spending package process -
--- maybe they are sending a message
-"This is a major symbolic move as Moody's were the last of the major rating agencies to have the US at the top rating," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.
Market reaction
- Futures fell in late trade after the close of the markets- when it was announced
- Bonds - long end moved.
--- 30 yr treasuries up over 5%
---- 30 yer mortgage rates over 7%
- Markets - yawned and turned on the open after a 1.5% love lower on the futures
Bessent reaction
-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview on NBC News' "Meet the Press" that Moody's Ratings were a "lagging indicator" after the group downgraded the U.S.' credit rating by a notch from the highest level.
-"I think that Moody's is a lagging indicator," Bessent said Sunday. "I think that's what everyone thinks of credit agencies."
- He asserted that the downgrade was related to the Biden administration's spending policies
- Is that right?
China - Stimulating
- China cut its key lending rates by 10 basis points on Tuesday, as Beijing ramps up efforts to boost its economy at a time when trade tensions threaten to derail growth.
- The People's Bank of China trimmed the 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% from 3.1%, and the 5-year LPR to 3.5% from 3.6%.
US Steel still in play
- Nippon Steel plans to invest $14 billion in U.S. Steel's operations including up to $4 billion in a new steel mill if the Trump administration green lights its bid for the iconic U.S. company, according to a document and three people familiar with the matter.
- Under details of the plan included in the document, the company will plow $11 billion into U.S. Steel's infrastructure through 2028. That includes $1 billion in a green field site, which is expected to grow by $3 billion over the following years and has not been previously reported.
- There is a deadline of May 21st for a national security review - then T...
1 hr 2 min