DHUnplugged Podcast

By Andrew Horowitz and JC DvorakBusiness News Investing Business News Careers

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DHUnplugged Podcast episodes

October 08, 2025 DHUnplugged #772: Best of Us (1)
ROTFL – Some of the best host stories from over the years.
Shoes off at airports anyone?
Vinegar book?
How about economics based on train count?
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51 min
October 01, 2025 DHUnplugged #771: Red October?
Crypto pulling back
October – one of the toughest months
Day traders – some good news
Intel’s new growth model
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
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Warm-Up
- Crypto pulling back
- REMINDER - NEW CTP for Lithium Americas (LAC) stock!
- October - one of the toughest months
- Day traders - some good news
Markets
- New Tariffs announced - Drugs, trucks, kitchen cabinets
- Intel's new growth model
- Quantum stocks rallying
- Powell setting the stage
RYDER CUP - What a finish!
Friday Jobs Report
Labor Dept - may - or may not release jobs report Friday
- Fearing that a government shutdown will be problematic
- Convenient
US to take stake in Lithium Americas - Up 29%
- Where are we coming up with all of this $
Red October?
-9 of the 20 largest single-day drops in the Dow Jones occurred in October.
- 1907 Bank Panic
- 1929 Crash (Black Tuesday)
- 1987 Crash (Black Monday, -22.6% in one day)
- 2008 Financial Crisis (S&P 500 fell ~17% in October alone)
- Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of ~0.91% in October
-Over the past 20 years, October has been relatively favorable, with average gains between 0.8% and 1.5% for the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.
-October is 35% more volatile than the average month.
Saudi Arabia for the Win!
- Electronic Arts rallied on Friday following a report by the Wall Street Journal that the video game company is nearing a roughly $50 billion deal to go private.
- The deal would likely be the largest leverage buyout of all time, according to the Journal.
- Investors including Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund and Silver Lake could announce the deal as soon as next week, the report said
- Also in n the TikTok Deal - what is up with that?
- Oh - Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners is another participating investor, according to a source familiar with the matter, who asked not to be named because the discussions are private.
On the Other hand
- Shares of CarMax fell to an all-time low on Thursday, as investors disposed of positions after disappointing second-quarter earnings results.
- This followed surprisingly disappointing financial and operating results, with retail used unit sales declining 5.4 percent, and comparable same-store sales decreasing 6.3 percent.
- Net income declined by 28.16 percent to $95.4 million from $132.8 million in the same period last year, while net sales and operating revenues dropped by 6 percent to $6.59 billion from $7.013 billion year-on-year.
- Carvana next or reason why KMX doing poorly?
Ponzi Accusations
- The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is accusing the men who bought bankrupt chains RadioShack, Modell’s Sporting Goods, and Pier 1 Imports of running a Ponzi scheme that duped investors out of tens of millions of dollars.
- A complaint filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida on Tuesday, alleges the co-founders of Miami-based Retail Ecommerce Ventures, Alex Mehr and Tai Lopez, together with the company's Chief Operating Officer Maya Burkenroad, raised approximately $112 million combined from hundreds of U.S. investors by selling investments in eight companies they created and controlled under Retail Ecommerce Ventures.
- Between April 2020 through Nov. 2022, they raised money by selling two types of investments. They sold unsecured notes that promised returns of up to 25% a year, and ownership shares that offered monthly payouts as high as 2%, according to the complaint.|
- To pay interest, dividends and maturing note payments, Mehr and Lopez resorted to using a combination of loans from outside lenders, merchant cash advances, money raised from new and existing investors, and transfers from other portfolio companies to cover obligations, the SEC said.
Pfizer Playing Ball
- President Donald Trump announced an agreement with Pfizer to voluntarily sell its medications at lower prices in the U.S., as his administration pushes to link the nation’s drug prices to cheaper prices paid abroad.
- Pfizer has agreed to take measures to lower U.S. drug prices, including selling its existing drugs to Medicaid patients at the lowest price offered in other developed nations on a website the administration is calling TrumpRx.gov.
- As part of the deal, Pfizer has also agreed to a three-year grace period during which the company’s products won’t face pharmaceutical-specific tariffs – as long as the drugmaker further invests in U.S. manufacturing.
TikTok
- ByteDance to retain ownership of TikTok's U.S. business operations, sources say
- Joint venture to handle U.S. user data and algorithm, sources say
- ByteDance to control revenue-generating operations like e-commerce and advertising, sources say
- Sources said the new U.S. TikTok would be divided into two companies. The joint venture that was announced by Trump will serve as the backend operations to the U.S. company and handle U.S. user data and algorithm. ByteDance is expected to be the single largest minority shareholder in the joint venture, sources said.|
- The new U.S. company will be valued at around $14 billion, Vice President JD Vance said. (Which everyone is asking how that number was arrived at and why so low)
Holy Economics
- GDP now expected to be between 3.8% and 3.9% in coming quarter (annualized)
- Home sales soar 20% to 3-year high
-- Sales of newly built homes rose a much larger-than-expected 20.5% in August compared with July, according to the U.S. Census.
- Sales were 15.4% higher than August 2024.
---That’s despite mortgage rates that are higher than they are today.
---The median price of a new home sold in August was $413,500, in increase of 1.9% year over year.
- Initial claims number last week came in much lower than anticipated at 218k
Powell Hinting
- Stocks overvalued?
-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell furthered valuation concerns , noting “equity prices are fairly highly valued.”
- Powell also signaled that the rate-cutting path wasn’t clear and that it was a “challenging situation.”
- Stocks sold off a bit during the week - but came buyers stepped in again
- He also said last week: weakness in the labor market is outweighing concerns about stubborn inflation, leading to a decision he backed to lower the central bank’s key interest rate last week. (setting up potential cuts and ignoring inflation pressures)
Government Shutdown..
- Didn't they have open ended budget and debt ceiling?
- Does it really matter anymore?
- Bill being pushed to end shutdowns (therefore Congress will never have to present a budget - formalized)
Quantum
- Last week...
- IonQ on Tuesday said it achieved a “significant quantum internet milestone,” leading shares 3% higher in afternoon trading and lifting quantum stocks in sympathy during the session.
- Shares of Rigetti Computing gained 10%, D-Wave Quantum added 6% and Quantum Computing rose 4%.
YTD: RGTI up 100%, IONQ up 65%, QUBT up 25%, QBTS up 218%
Intel
- Now Intel is asking Apple to make an investment...
- So the new growth model for Intel is begging?
Going Private
- Electronic Arts said it will be acquired by the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners in an all-cash deal worth $55 billion.
- Shareholders of the maker of Battlefield, The Sims and the Madden NFL will receive $210 per share.
- Jared Kushner, who is President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, is CEO of Affinity.
Interesting Development
- New tariffs - rate cut cover - moving ahead with more threats
- Late last week: Trump cites national security for new round of tariffs
- 100% duty on branded drugs waived if ground broken on US factory
- Despite trade deal, Britain's drugs face full 100% US tariffs
- His new duties included a 50% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, as well as a 30% levy on upholstered furniture, raising costs for a core consumer sector.
- Trump said the 100% tariff on branded drugs would only apply to producers that had not already broken ground on U.S. manufacturing plants.
- Top import of drugs ,Ireland, Switzerland, Germany, Singapore, India, Belgium
- About 60% of the $25.5 billion in U.S. furniture imports in 2024 came from Vietnam and China, according to Furniture Today, a trade publication. (Wayfair?)
- Trump said the new heavy-duty truck tariffs would benefit companies such as Paccar-owned (PCAR.O), opens new tab Peterbilt and Kenworth and Freightliner.
Pattern Day Trader
- This was a dumb rule
- Regulators are moving to dismantle one of the most controversial barriers for active retail traders — the $25,000 minimum equity rule for pattern day trading.
- The $25,000 minimum equity rule mandates that traders must maintain a minimum account balance of $25,000 in a margin account to execute four or more day trades within a five-business-day period. The rule was put in place in 2001.
- FINRA is replacing this mandate with an intraday margin rule that applies the existing maintenance margin rules to intraday exposure. In other words, one’s intraday buying power will be based on the margin requirements for the positions they take on during the day, not a fixed equity minimum.
- Good for Robinhood, Schwab and other brokers
Docusign
- DocuSign shares lower by 11% after OpenAI introduced DocuGPT? last night, an agent that converts contracts into structured, searchable data
- BUT, this seems to be more f a searchable AI to help with Document management - not Document signing.
Firefly (FLY)
- Firefly Aerospace crashes to post-IPO lows after disclosing that the booster stage of its Alpha rocket was destroyed during a testing mishap
- Seen as a a significant setback because the booster is a critical component for achieving successful launches, and the failure raises questions about the reliability and readiness of Firefly's (FLY) launch technology.
- Commentary: The setback could delay the company's commercial launch schedule, erode customer confidence, and provide competitors with an advantage in the rapidly growing small-rocket market.
- Investors are reacting negatively as the incident highlights both execution risks and the uncertainty around FLY's near-term growth prospects
Years in the Making
- Charlie Javice, founder of a startup acquired by JPMorgan Chase in 2021 for $175 million, was sentenced to seven years in prison Monday for defrauding the bank by overstating how many customers the fintech firm had.
- A jury found Javice and her chief growth officer Olivier Amar guilty on three counts of fraud and one count of conspiracy to commit fraud.
- Javice said she felt profound remorse for her actions and asked for forgiveness from JPMorgan, employees of the startup, shareholders and investors.
- Company was FRANK - million of customers related to mortgage were frauds - they beefed up numbers and scammed JP Morgan
Beyond Bad
- On September 29, 2025, Beyond Meat announced the commencement of an Exchange Offer and Consent Solicitation aimed at eliminating over $800 million of debt.
- The initiative involves exchanging existing convertible notes for new ones, with the support of holders of approximately 47% of the existing notes.
- This move is intended to reduce leverage and extend maturity, supporting Beyond Meat’s long-term vision.
- Investors hated it - stock down 30% to all -time low

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The Closest to The Pin for
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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS

See this week’s stock picks HERE
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1 hr 3 min
September 24, 2025 DHUnplugged #770: The Money Tree
Rate cut – rates up?
Diet Stocks – losing weight
Good news/bad news – all good for markets
Bessent for Fed Chair and Treasury Secretary?
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- BRAND New server - all provisioned - Much faster DH Site
- Need a new CTP stock!
- New Clear Stocks!
- To the Sky - Money Tree Market
- Tik Tok news
Markets
- Rate cut - rates up
- Diet Stocks - losing weight
- Good news/bad news - all good for markets
- StubHub IPO Update
SELL Rosh Hashanah - Buy Yom Kippur?
Vanguard Issues? Got a call this morning..Gent in NY...
NEW CLEAR - On Fire!
- Have you seen the returns on some of these stocks?
- YTD
- - URA (Uranium ETF) Up 75%
-- SMR (NuScale) Up 164%
- - OKLO (OKL) up 518%
- - CCJ (Cameco) up 65%
TikTok Nonsense
- President Donald Trump said in an interview that aired Sunday that conservative media baron Rupert Murdoch and his son Lachlan are likely to be involved in the proposal to save TikTok in the United States.
-Trump also said that Oracle executive chairman Larry Ellison and Dell Technologies CEO Michael Dell are also likely to be involved in the TikTok deal.
More TikTok
- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says TikTok's algorithm will be secured, retrained, and operated in the U.S. outside of Bytedance's control; Oracle (ORCL) will serve as Tiktok's security provider; President Trump will sign TikTok deal later this week
- What does that mean and will it be the same TikTok.
- Who is doing the retraining??????? SO MANY QUESTIONS
MEME ALERT!
- Eric Jackson, a hedge fund manager who partly contributed to the trading explosion in Opendoor, unveiled his new pick Monday — Better Home & Finance Holding Co.
- Jackson said his firm holds a position in Better Home but didn’t disclose its size.
- Shares of Better Home soared 46.6% on Monday after Jackson touted the stock on X. At one point during the session, the stock more than doubled in price.
- The New York-based mortgage lender jumped more than 36% last week.
Intel
- INTC getting even more money.
- Now, NVDA pouring in $5B
- Nvidia and Intel announced a partnership to jointly develop multiple generations of custom data center and PC products. Intel will manufacture new x86 CPUs customized for Nvidia’s AI infrastructure, and also build system-on-chips (SoCs) for PCs that integrate Nvidia’s RTX GPU chiplets.
- Both the US Government and NVDA got BELOW market pricing on their shares.
NVDA $$
- Nvidia is investing in OpenAI. On September 22, 2025, Nvidia announced a strategic partnership with OpenAI, which includes an investment of up to $100 billion
- The agreement will help deploy at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems, which will include millions of its GPUs. The first phase is scheduled to launch in the second half of 2026, using Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform.
Autism Link
- Shares of Kenvue (KVUE) are trading lower largely due to reports from the White House and HHS suggesting a forthcoming warning linking prenatal use of acetaminophen (Tylenol's active ingredient) to autism risk.
- Investors are concerned that such a warning could lead to regulatory action, changes in labeling requirements, litigation risk, or reduced demand for one of KVUE's key products. It's estimated that Tylenol accounts for approximately 7-9% of KVUE's total revenue.
- The company has strongly denied any scientific basis for the link, but the uncertainty itself is hurting sentiment.
- Finally, this also comes on top of recent weak financial performance: KVUE posted a Q2 revenue decline of 4% and cut its full-year guidance on August 7.
- - Lawsuits to follow...
Pfizer
- Pfizer (PFE) announced it will acquire clinical-stage biotech Metsera (MTSR) in a cash-and-contingent value rights deal worth up to $70 per share, as it seeks a foothold in the fast-growing obesity drug market. The deal includes $47.50 per share in cash -- a 43% premium to MTSR's closing price last Friday -- plus up to $22.50 in milestone payments tied to the development and commercial success of MTSR's lead candidate, MET-097i.
-PFE shares are climbing higher Mondayon the news, with investors hopeful the acquisition could provide the next long-term growth catalyst, especially as COVID-19 product sales have sharply declined in recent quarters.
Mortgage Rates
- Ten- and 30-year Treasury yields rose this week despite the Federal Reserve cutting its short-term interest rate.
- The 10-year yield is little changed since early 2024, despite the Fed cutting rates multiple times since then.
- The 10-year Treasury yield jumped as high as 4.145% after briefly falling below 4% this week. The 30-year Treasury yield — closely followed for its connection to home mortgages — traded around 4.76%, up from a low of 4.604% earlier in the week.
-- Sell the news?
Big
- BOJ keeps short-term policy rate steady at 0.5%
- Two board members proposed unsuccessfully to hike to 0.75%
- BOJ decides to start selling ETFs, REITs in market
- The BOJ said it would start selling once necessary operational preparations are completed, and could review the pace of selling in future policy meetings.
- The decision marks another step toward dismantling remnants of the BOJ's radical stimulus aimed at reviving a moribund economy, which left it with 37-trillion-yen worth of ETFs on its balance sheet accumulated during 13 years of purchases.
- Yen rallies, stocks turn negative after decision
Close the OpenDoor
- Keith Rabois, Opendoor’s new chairman, said the company he co-founded needs to slash its workforce as much as 85% to fix its cost structure.
- Rabois returned to Opendoor this week, when the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO.
- “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them,” Rabois told CNBC.
- meme stock that moves on every tweet/Reddit post
WHO Backs Diet Shots
- The World Health Organization will recommend using weight-loss drugs to treat obesity in adults, according to draft guidance from the agency that urged countries to take the condition seriously as a chronic disease.
-The WHO’s expert committee concluded that the popular GLP-1 drugs, first developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are part of the solution for the long-term treatment of obesity for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above, alongside counseling on lifestyle and behaviour changes.
AND
- FDA issues NVO a warning letter; says Oprah Special misled consumers on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic, Victoza marketing
_ The video originally appeared on ABC as a Primetime Oprah Special on March 18, 2024 and can also be accessed through ABC’s website.6 The video subsequently appeared on Hulu on March 19, 2024. FDA has determined that the video is false or misleading. Thus, the video misbrands Wegovy, Ozempic, and Victoza within the meaning of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) and makes its distribution violative.
Crackdown
- HIMS trades down 2.8% yesterday and more today after U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner, Martin Makary stated that the Super Bowl ad from Hims & Hers "breached" federal law.
- Makary's primary argument is that the ad violated the "fair balance" rule required for prescription drug advertising.
- Omission of Side Effects: The commissioner specifically noted that the Hims ad highlighted the benefits of its compounded weight-loss drugs without mentioning any of the potential side effects. This omission, in his view, is a clear violation of FDA regulations.
Thoughts? Dual Roles
- New item of oddness
- Idea being floated that Treas Secty Bessent could have dual roles as Fed Chair and Treasury Secty
- How does that work?
H1-B
- Golden passports??
- The White House announced the new fee on Friday, prompting some major U.S. tech firms to advise visa holders to either remain in the country or return there quickly.
- Imposing a new $100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications could disrupt the global operations of Indian technology services companies that deploy skilled professionals to the United States
- Some follow up over the weekend that if you were here already, this probably does not apply
There it is...
- Paul Atkins, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, said his agency will propose a rule change following President Donald Trump’s call to switch quarterly earnings reports to a semiannual schedule.
- Atkins said if the rule change is approved, it will be left to companies to decide whether they switch to semiannual or stay with quarterly.
- Rule can be changed by majority vote
- The issue has come under heated debate as opponents of less frequent reporting argue the lack of transparency would be a detriment to investors, especially retail investors who don’t have as ample resources as Wall Street institutions.
- Supporters say a six-month reporting schedule would free up companies to focus their businesses on a longer-term basis.
Suckers!
- Elon Musk’s xAI is raising $10 billion from investors in a round that values the company at $200 billion, sources told CNBC’s David Faber.
- The fundraising comes weeks after Musk raised $10 billion in debt and equity at what was believed to be a roughly $150 billion valuation.
- Later on Friday, Musk called the report “fake news” in a post on X, and said “xAI is not raising any capital right now.”
- Remembering: In March, Musk announced that xAI had merged with X, his social network, in an all-stock transaction that valued the AI company at $80 billion and the social media company at $33 billion. Musk acquired Twitter for about $44 billion in 2022 and later changed the name to X.
More Rug Pulls
- Shares of StubHub Holdings fell by 6.38 percent on its first day as a publicly listed company, dropping 6.38 percent to close at $22 apiece
- Nonetheless, StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB) was able to raise $800 million from its initial public offering, having issued more than 34 million shares to the public.
- The company’s market value was at $8.1 billion at market close.
- Why crap: StubHub Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:STUB) said it planned to use the proceeds from the offer to pay down debt, while the balance will be allocated for general corporate purposes.
Oh And...
- The Federal Trade Commission and seven states sued Live Nation and Ticketmaster for tacitly coordinating with brokers and allowing them to harvest millions of dollars worth of tickets in the primary market.
- Live Nation and Ticketmaster then sell the illegally harvested tickets at a substantial markup in the secondary market, causing consumers to pay significantly more than the face value of the ticket.
- BTW, exactly what is happening in the stock market right now. Exactly what we are seeing with the AI startups too.
The FTC further alleged in a complaint that California-based Ticketmaster LLC and its parent company Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., (collectively “Ticketmaster”) deceived artists and consumers by engaging in bait-and-switch pricing through advertising lower prices for tickets than what consumers must pay to purchase tickets; deceptively claimed to impose strict limits on the number of tickets that consumers could purchase for an event, even though ticket brokers routinely and substantially exceeded those limits; and sold millions of tickets, often at much higher cost to consumers, on its resale platform that those brokers obtained in excess of artists’ ticket limits.
- - - IS Anything Going to Come of THIS?
Apple Watch Workaround
- Remember when they had to take out that component for blood pressure
- Now adding AI to monitor blood pressure notification in latest watch (back to models series 9)
- Not actual blood pressure - but takes various readings and theorizes and recommends you see someone
Update
- Spirit Airlines is planning to reduce capacity 25% in its November schedule, CEO Dave Davis told staff Wednesday.
- Davis hinted at further job cuts or furloughs as the discounter scrambles to cut costs, according to a memo viewed by CNBC.
- Spirit filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month for the second time in a year.

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1 hr 5 min
September 17, 2025 DHUnplugged #769: Sideline Ca$h
Cash on the sidelines…. (that thesis is coming back)
ATH – Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks… (Sentiment)
Most hated stocks – more hate
PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!
Click HERE for Show Notes and Links
DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.
Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter
Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter
Warm-Up
- AI - the promise and the theft
- Need a new CTP stock!
- Most hated stocks - more hate
- Football Season !!!!!!!!!
Markets
- ATH - Fed cut, AI earnings, buybacks... (Sentiment)
- NVDA under China's microscope
- Cash on the sidelines.... (that reason coming back)
- StubHub IPO coming (thieves, but make $ for company)
Once again
- House to put forth stopgap bill that would fund government through November 21; vote expected Friday
CPI and Jobs
- The consumer price index posted a seasonally adjusted 0.4% increase for the month, the biggest gain since January, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.9%.
---For the vital core reading that excludes food and energy, the August gain was 0.3%, putting the 12-month figure at 3.1%, both as forecast. Fed officials consider core to be a better gauge of long-run trends. The central bank’s inflation target is 2%.
- The Labor Department reported a surprise increase in weekly unemployment compensation filings to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
- The reports provide the final pieces of a complicated data puzzle that central bankers will review at their two-day policy meeting that concludes Sept. 17.
Retail Sales
- Can't count out the US Consumer - THEY CONSUME
- Retail sales increase 0.6% in August, beating expectations
- Core retail sales rise 0.7%; July gain unrevised at 0.5%
- Higher prices account for some of the rise in sales, but consumers also showing resilience
- Import prices increase 0.3% amid strong gains in capital, consumer goods
Fed Day
- Odds are 100% for 0.25 cut and 3.9% for a 0.50% cut
- Lots of talk about 3 cuts for 2025 (Sept, Oct, December)
- Gold hitting new highs, silver up there (Schiff on TDI Podcast this week)
- Cook not allowed to be fired
Google
- Welcome to the TRILLION dollar market cap club
- Even with the concern over AI eating up search - stock is ATH after the recent court ruling
-- Probably also due to free input for their LLMs
- The owner of Rolling Stone, Billboard and Variety sued Google on Friday, alleging the technology giant's AI summaries use its journalism without consent and reduce traffic to its websites.
- The lawsuit by Penske Media in federal court in Washington, D.C., marks the first time a major U.S. publisher has taken Alphabet-owned Google to court over the AI-generated summaries that now appear on top of its search results.
- News organizations have for months said the new features, including Google's "AI Overviews," siphon traffic away from their sites, eroding advertising and subscription revenue.
- Penske, a family-owned media conglomerate led by Jay Penske and whose content attracts 120 million online visitors a month, said Google only includes publishers' websites in its search results if it can also use their articles in AI summaries.
- Without the leverage, Google would have to pay publishers for the right to republish their work or use it to train its AI systems, the company said in the lawsuit. I
NVDA
- China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly law after preliminary probe
- China’s market regulator on Monday said that Nvidia violated the country’s anti-monopoly law, according to a preliminary probe, adding that Beijing would continue its investigation into the U.S. chip giant.
- Surely if USA allows access to the H20 chip that this will go away....
Tesla Shares
- First, company is not doing well - as a company - but stock is performing
- Elon announced that he invested $1B in Tesla shares (first time since 2020)
- It is being interpreted by the market as a strong vote of confidence in TSLA’s long-term prospects
--- OH MY Robotaxis must be near!
--- Timing on 2 fronts (Oracle and Pay package)
---- Real reason: (an bets on for him Shorting Oracle after the pop)
Billionaire List
NEW CLEAR
- The Trump administration’s top energy official said the US should look to boost its strategic uranium reserve to buffer against Russian supplies and increase confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power generation.
- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright comments underscore the Trump administration’s plans to promote nuclear energy as the demand for power soars with the electrification of the economy.
- Russia supplies about a quarter of the enriched uranium needed by America’s fleet 94 nuclear reactors, which generate about a fifth of US electricity.
IPO
- Gemini, the Winklevoss’ crypto exchange, pops more than 14% in Nasdaq debut
- Got to$44 on the open then faded - currently trading at $33 $28
-- Funny how all of these DEFI companies want to trade on Old School exchanges
Cash and Cash Alternatives
- There is over $7 trillion in cash-equivalent investments that have offered an attractive return for no market risk, and while much of that money is institutional or emergency funds savings, some shift out of cash-equivalent assets can be expected as the Fed begins to cut rates.
- Cash of the sidelines - money will pour into markets if rates come down as TINA returns
- - - The cash on the sidelines bull thesis has been debunked many times
On Sideline
Tariff Fun
- Swiss watchmaker Swatch has begun selling a special edition watch with the numbers three and nine reversed on its face in a play on the 39% tariffs President Donald Trump imposed on U.S. imports from Switzerland last month.
- The tariffs - among the highest set by Trump worldwide - were met with shock and dismay in Switzerland, a leading producer of high-end watches and other luxury goods.
- Costing 139 Swiss francs ($175), the watch named "WHAT IF...TARIFFS?" went on sale on Wednesday and is only available in Switzerland, a company spokesperson said on Friday.
Most Hated
- Shares of Pfizer and Moderna fell on Friday after a report that Trump administration health officials plan to link Covid vaccines to the deaths of 25 children.
- The report comes as Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, moves to change immunization policy in the U.S.
- The report said officials plan to include the claim in a presentation next week to a key vaccine panel that advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and plays a key role in shot access.
Close the OpenDoor
- Keith Rabois, Opendoor’s new chairman, said the company he co-founded needs to slash its workforce as much as 85% to fix its cost structure.
- Rabois returned to Opendoor this week, when the company named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO.
- “There’s 1,400 employees at Opendoor. I don’t know what most of them do. We don’t need more than 200 of them,” Rabois told CNBC.
- meme stock that moves on every tweet/Reddit post
Phishing
- Reuters and a Harvard University researcher used top chatbots to plot a simulated phishing scam – from composing emails to tips on timing – and tested it on 108 elderly volunteers. The bots’ persuasive performance shows how AI is arming criminals for industrial-scale fraud.
- “We believe every senior deserves dignity and joy in their golden years,” it read. “By clicking here, you’ll discover heartwarming stories of seniors we’ve helped and learn how you can join our mission.”
- But the charity was fake, and the email’s purpose was to defraud seniors out of large sums of money. Its author: Elon Musk’s artificial-intelligence chatbot, Grok.
- Grok warned a reporter that the malicious email it created “should not be used in real-world scenarios.” The bot nonetheless produced the phishing attempt as requested and dialed it up with the “click now” line.
- Overall, about 11% of the seniors clicked on the emails sent. Five of the nine scam mails tested drew clicks: two generated by Meta AI, two by Grok and one by Claude. None clicked on emails generated by ChatGPT or DeepSeek.
WHO Backs Diet Shots
- The World Health Organization will recommend using weight-loss drugs to treat obesity in adults, according to draft guidance from the agency that urged countries to take the condition seriously as a chronic disease.
-The WHO’s expert committee concluded that the popular GLP-1 drugs, first developed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are part of the solution for the long-term treatment of obesity for patients with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or above, alongside counseling on lifestyle and behaviour changes.
AND
- FDA issues NVO a warning letter; says Oprah Special misled consumers on Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Ozempic, Victoza marketing
_ The video originally appeared on ABC as a Primetime Oprah Special on March 18, 2024 and can also be accessed through ABC’s website.6 The video subsequently appeared on Hulu on March 19, 2024. FDA has determined that the video is false or misleading. Thus, the video misbrands Wegovy, Ozempic, and Victoza within the meaning of the Federal Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act (FD&C Act) and makes its distribution violative.
Crackdown
- HIMS trades down 2.8% yesterday and more today after U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner, Martin Makary stated that the Super Bowl ad from Hims & Hers "breached" federal law.
- Makary's primary argument is that the ad violated the "fair balance" rule required for prescription drug advertising.
- Omission of Side Effects: The commissioner specifically noted that the Hims ad highlighted the benefits of its compounded weight-loss drugs without mentioning any of the potential side effects. This omission, in his view, is a clear violation of FDA regulations.
Thoughts?
- The Senate has confirmed Stephen Miran, President Donald Trump’s pick to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
- Miran will participate in the Fed policy committee’s upcoming meeting, where the board will consider whether to cut interest rates.
- Miran will also keep his White House position at the helm of the Council of Economic Advisors, but will take an unpaid leave to serve on the central bank board.
- Mole???? Moellleee mole Moleee....

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1 hr 6 min
September 10, 2025 DHUnplugged #768: Glass Houses
Football Team Valuations
Sexy is back – Retail
What winning the Powerball Jackpot means
A little 1,000,000 revision…
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Warm-Up
- Stagflation - as payrolls drop
- People in glass houses ....Stupid Politics
- We are still here - which means we did not win the Powerball Jackpot
- They say it will never happen - Ban on stock ownership for Congress
Markets
- CRISPR Chocolates?
- Tech - again the driver
- Sexy is back - Retail
- Take in stride - on 900k less workers
- ORACLE!!!!!!
Powerball Jackpot
- $1.8 Billion
- Two winners - Texas and Missouri
- Each winning ticket holder can choose either an annuitized prize of $893.5 million or a lump sum payment of $410.3 million – both before taxes.
- Additionally, two lucky tickets sold in Kansas and Texas won a $2 million prize and 18 tickets sold across 13 states won $1 million.
- Back to just $20 million now...
- The odds of winning were 1 in 292.2 million, according to the Multi-State Lottery Association, which oversees the game.
Glass Houses
- Pulte - Accuses Fed's Cook and with simple accusations Trump looking to Fire ...
- Close relatives of the federal official who has accused a Federal Reserve governor of improperly claiming primary residence on two properties have declared the same status on two homes in two different states, public records show.
- Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called “homestead exemptions” for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida, according to the records. The exemption is meant to give a discount to homeowners on taxes for properties they use as their primary residence.
- Local tax officials in both states told Reuters that claiming more than one home as a primary residence isn’t generally allowed in their jurisdictions and could be punishable by fines or back taxes.
- After Reuters contacted tax officials in Bloomfield Township, Michigan, to inquire about the dual claims, Darrin Kraatz, director of assessing, on Thursday said the township “as of today” would revoke the exemption on the Pultes’ residence there.
Beat Your Ass
- Seems at a recent dinner- Pulte got under Scott Bessent's skin and bessent was pissed
- F You - I am going to beat your ass - punch you in the F'n mouth for bad talking me to president Trump
- Class act these children
Chocolate Editing
- Candy maker Mars said Wednesday it has partnered with biotech company Pairwise to speed up the development of more resilient cocoa using CRISPR-based gene editing technology.
- CRISPR technology is a gene-editing tool that makes changes to DNA and can be used in farming.
- The goal is to create cacao plants that can better withstand disease, heat and other climate-related stresses that can put global chocolate supply at risk.
---- Public Service: The main difference between cocoa and cacao: cacao is minimally processed and remains largely raw and nutrient-dense, while cocoa is made from roasted cacao beans that have been processed at high temperatures. This heat and processing affect cacao's nutrient profile and flavor, making cacao powder more bitter and richer in nutrients, and cocoa powder milder and more suitable for baking.
GOOGLE for the win
- Google shares popped 8% on Wednesday last week as investors celebrated what they viewed as minimal consequences from a historic defeat last year in the landmark antitrust case.
- Last year, Google was found to hold an illegal monopoly in its core market of internet search.
- U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled against the most severe consequences that were proposed by the Department of Justice, including the forced sale of Google’s Chrome browser, which provides data that helps its advertising business deliver targeted ads.
- “Google will not be required to divest Chrome; nor will the court include a contingent divestiture of the Android operating system in the final judgment,” the decision stated. “Plaintiffs overreached in seeking forced divestiture of these key assets, which Google did not use to effect any illegal restraints.”
- Knock on... Google pays Apple billions of dollars per year to be the default search engine on iPhones.
--- It’s lucrative for Apple and a valuable way for Google to get more search volume and users.
----- Apple stock rose 4% on Wednesday in response...
Sexy Back
- American Eagle said its campaign with actress Sydney Sweeney has so far led to positive gains in new customers and sales.
- The clothing retailer issued fiscal second-quarter earnings that beat expectations on the top and bottom lines.
- It re-issued its full year guidance and is now expecting lower operating income because of tariffs.
- American Eagle stock soared more than 20% in after-hours trading Wednesday.
- “The fall season is off to a positive start. Fueled by stronger product offerings and the success of recent marketing campaigns with Sydney Sweeney and Travis Kelce, we have seen an uptick in customer awareness, engagement and comparable sales,”
- Sweeney or Swift?
- Earnings per share: 45 cents vs. 21 cents expected
- Revenue: $1.28 billion vs. $1.24 billion expected
- - - Calling BS: The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended Aug. 2 was $77.6 million, or 45 cents per share, compared with $77.3 million, or 39 cents per share, a year earlier.
Congress
- A ban on members of Congress and their families trading or owning stocks got new momentum last week, after a bipartisan group of House members announced they had come to an agreement on a new bill.
- The Restore Trust in Congress Act combines several different proposals into one vehicle that supporters say will focus the debate and lead to passage.
Apple Event
- Apple today announced AirPods Pro 3, taking the most popular headphones in the world to an entirely new level. AirPods Pro 3 deliver unbelievable sound quality and the world’s best in-ear Active Noise Cancellation (ANC) — removing up to 2x more noise than the previous-generation AirPods Pro, and 4x more than the original AirPods Pro.
- For the first time, users can utilize AirPods Pro 3 to measure heart rate and track over 50 workout types with the new experience in the Fitness app on iPhone.
- Live Translation also comes to AirPods, making face-to-face conversations easier by helping users connect even if they don’t speak the same language.
- Apple® today introduced Apple Watch Ultra® 3 — the most advanced Apple Watch® — delivering expanded health, fitness, safety, and connectivity features, and seamlessly shifting between a powerful sports watch, an elegant smartwatch, and a comprehensive health companion.
--- 42 hours battery, satellite, 5G
- New iPhone 17
- GAME CHNGER slimmer Iphone Air (still noting about the AI and SIRI update)
- Glass big point they discussed... Ceramic shield
- Seems like just put new number on phone with some upgrades - video presentation is the same as has been for years
- On one hand - stale - on the other, if it ain't broke...
Oracle
- "We signed four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three different customers in Q1...This resulted in RPO contract backlog increasing 359% to $455 billion. It was an astonishing quarter—and demand for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure continues to build. Over the next few months, we expect to sign-up several additional multi-billion-dollar customers and RPO is likely to exceed half-a-trillion dollars. The scale of our recent RPO growth enables us to make a large upward revision to the Cloud Infrastructure portion of Oracle's overall financial plan which we will be presenting in detail next month at the Financial Analyst Meeting. As a bit of a preview, we expect Oracle Cloud Infrastructure revenue to grow 77% to $18 billion this fiscal year—and then increase to $32 billion, $73 billion, $114 billion, and $144 billion over the subsequent four years. Most of the revenue in this 5-year forecast is already booked in our reported RPO."
"MultiCloud database revenue from Amazon, Google and Microsoft grew at the incredible rate of 1,529% in Q1," said Oracle Chairman and CTO, Larry Ellison.
- Stock up 22% A/H
!!Rounding Error!!
- The BLS preliminary benchmark revision for 12-month period ending March 2025 shows 911,000 fewer jobs than previously published
- Large benchmark revision (-911,000) for nonfarm employment will reinforce market's belief that Fed will cut rates by at least 75 basis points before the end of the year, while perhaps also driving increased expectations of a 50-basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting
- Historical Average: From 2002 to 2023, the average benchmark revision was around 255,000 jobs, with most years seeing revisions well below that.
Largest Prior Revision: The previous record was in 2009, when the BLS revised employment down by 902,000 jobs, which was considered extraordinary at the time due to the financial crisis.
Current Revision: The 2025 revision of -911,000 is now the largest in over two decades, surpassing even the 2009 figure
BLS Monthly Report
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 22,000 for the month, lower than the 75,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.
- The report showed a marked slowdown from the July increase of 79,000, which was revised up by 6,000. Revisions also showed a net loss of 13,000 in June.
- Health care again led by sectors, adding 31,000 jobs, while social assistance contributed 16,000. Wholesale trade and manufacturing both saw declines of 12,000 on the month.
AI - The Promise
- OpenAI has sharply raised its projected cash burn through 2029 to $115 billion as it ramps up spending to power the artificial intelligence behind its popular ChatGPT chatbot, The Information reported on Friday.
- The new forecast is $80 billion higher than the company previously expected, the news outlet said, without citing a source for the report.
- So.... Not profitable untol at least 2029 (4 years)
- To control its soaring costs, OpenAI will seek to develop its own data center server chips and facilities to power its technology (Broadcom and what does this mean for NVDA)
What about those Tariffs
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is “confident” President Donald Trump’s tariff plan “will win” at the Supreme Court, but warned the U.S. would be forced to issue massive refunds if it loses.
- National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett noted that there are “other legal authorities” that the administration could use if the tariffs are blocked.
- Before court action, Trump’s tariffs were set to affect nearly 70% of U.S. goods imports.
- Bessent has said that “delaying a ruling until June 2026 could result in a scenario in which $750 billion-$1 trillion in tariffs have already been collected, and unwinding them could cause significant disruption.”
Tesla -
- New pay package for Musk - could result in upwards of a $TRILLION payday
- Tesla’s board is asking investors to approve a new pay plan for CEO Elon Musk worth about $975 billion.
The full award would give Musk more than 423 million additional shares.
The company will also ask shareholders to vote on whether the automaker should invest in Musk’s artificial intelligence company, xAI.
Hedge Fund Performance
- Hedge fund stock pickers returned over 2.2% in August and are up just over 10% for the year so far, said a Goldman Sachs note to clients on September 2.
- Systematic hedge funds, which use algorithms to trade, returned almost 2.4% for the month and are now up 12.3% for the year to August-end, the note showed.
- Hedge fund leverage, an indication of how actively hedge funds trade, declined across all regions into September, suggesting hedge funds turned cautious despite the anticipated U.S. rate cut later in September, said the Goldman note.
Football Team Valuations
Team Values

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1 hr 8 min
September 03, 2025 DHUnplugged #767: Flirty Chatbots
Blame it on AI – new excuse: Flirty Chatbots
NVDIA earnings the high point for a while?
Announcing the WINNER of the CTP
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Warm-Up
- Tariffs deemed illegal?
- So much for rates coming down - Long bond up again
- Announcing the WINNER of the CTP
- Blame it on AI - new excuse.... Flirty Chatbots
Markets
- NVDIA earnings the high point for a while?
- Good month - August is green - Sept starting out wobbly
- AI News - Valuations - TO THE MOON
NVDA Earnings
- From last Wednesday
- STRONG: Nvidia reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue on Wednesday, and said sales growth this quarter will remain above 50%
- Earnings per share: $1.05 adjusted vs. $1.01 estimated
- Revenue: $46.74 billion vs. $46.06 billion estimated
- Overall company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from $30.04 billion a year ago, Nvidia said. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters, dating back to mid-2023
-Stock opened Thursday at $180 - now trades near $168
--- Some concern over data-center revenue declining 1% from previous quarter due to $4B less in sales of H20 chips
NEW CLEAR
- The Duane Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons in 2020
- NextEra Energy (NEE)
- Duane Arnold would follow similar restarts planned for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, which plan to resume operations later this year and in 2027
- Big Change on the economics is just 5 years!
USA Travel
- Who needs those pesky visitors anyway
- Overseas travel to the U.S. fell 3.1% year-on-year in July to 19.2 million visitors, according to U.S. government data. It was the fifth month of decline this year, defying expectations that 2025 would see annual inbound visitors finally surpass the pre-pandemic level of 79.4 million.
- New VISA INTEGRITY fees on incoming travelers from many countries
- The extra charge raises the total visa cost to $442 for non-via waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China
- In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic, with July numbers still 53% below 2019 levels. The visa fee also threatens travel from India, where visits are down 2.4% so far this year, driven by a near 18% drop in students.
Tariffs Illegal?
- A divided U.S. appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key inter
- Trump lamented the decision by what he called a "highly partisan" court, posting on Truth Social: "If these Tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the Country."
national economic policy tool.
- So, now it goes to the Supreme Court (non - partisan?)
- Talk of the Bond Vigilantes making a move if the tariffs struck down because not much to pay the huge deficit and debt encumbered with new OBBBA

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Speaking of Rates
- Since the Powell hint of cuts - rates on the rise
- -Longer-Term rates
- Mortgage rates are the highest in months and the 10-Yr is at approx 4.30%
-- Please note, the Fed controls short-term rates.... Some influence on mortgages due to Quantitative easing, but even if rates are dropped does not mean that longer-dated paper will see a drop in the rates
DEE MINIMUM US
- The de minimis exemption, which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the country duty-free, came to an end globally last Friday.
- Small business owners on Etsy, eBay and Shopify, for example, relied on the provision to support their marketplace businesses.
- For nearly a decade, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight.
- The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper
- The end of de minimis could cost U.S. consumers at least $10.9 billion, or $136 per family, according to a 2025 paper
- More interesting is that some research shows that a good amount of drugs make their way into the US in de minimus packages.
--- In a fact sheet published on July 30, the White House said 90% of all cargo seizures in fiscal 2024, including 98% of narcotics seizures and 97% of intellectual property rights seizures, originated as de minimis shipments.
Make US Politics look calm
- Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Friday for an ethics violation, in another crushing blow to the Shinawatra political dynasty
- She became the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by the Constitutional Court, underlining its central role in an intractable power struggle between the governments of the Shinawatra clan and a nexus of powerful conservatives and royalist generals with far-reaching influence.
This is excellent news
- US is moving forward with the “America by Design” initiative
- The Order establishes the National Design Studio and the role of Chief Design Officer to facilitate design improvements in both digital and physical Federal spaces.
- Updating Federal websites to make more intuitive and user friendly
- Currently Only 6% of Federal websites are rated “good” for mobile performance, and 45% of Federal websites are not mobile friendly.
Following Up - Spirit Airline
- Not looking good
- Frontier Air took on and aimed to bury Spirit once and for all
- 2nd Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 6 months
- Presidents letter stated: Blah Blah... We are going though the Chapter 11 process, just like many of companies in the airlines industry have....
Some AI News
- Alibaba is developing a new AI chip
- The chip is specifically for inferencing rather than training but Alibaba will still use semiconductors from other vendors like Nvidia.
- Alibaba said it would invest at least 380 billion Chinese yuan ($53.1 billion) in AI over the next three years.
More IA
- Artificial-intelligence company Anthropic said on Tuesday it is now valued at $183 billion post-money, over twice as much as its earlier valuation, as investor enthusiasm towards AI startups stays strong despite some doubts over tech industry spending.
- The new valuation is a jump from the $61.5 billion post-money valuation in March this year, where it raised $3.5 billion.
- Estimates that the company will be pulling in $5B revenue from what they have done recently
TESLA
- News that Euopean sales are sliding - down 40% in the past year
- Tesla has reportedly sold few cars in India since launching in mid-July 2025, with just over 600 orders placed
Kraft Heinz
- Kraft Heinz will split into two companies, one focused on groceries and the other on sauces and spreads, it said on Tuesday, dismantling a packaged goods giant that never achieved the growth expected when it was formed a decade ago.
- The spinoff, which is expected to close in the second half of 2026, is the latest in a series of rearrangements among major global consumer brands that once embraced the conglomerate model, but are now rethinking their business structure amid sluggish sales, depressed valuations, and tariffs.
- Warren Buffet said he was disappointed in the move
- Shares dropped 7% on the news (so much for unlocking value)
Flirty Chatbots
- Meta has appropriated the names and likenesses of celebrities – including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway and Selena Gomez – to create dozens of flirty social-media chatbots without their permission
- Meta removed some flirty celebrity bots after being questioned by Reuters
- Meta says its own AI created inappropriate images, violating its policies
- Legal expert says Meta's use of likenesses may have violated celebrities' publicity rights

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1 hr 2 min
August 27, 2025 DHUnplugged #766: Jackson HOLY!
Jackson HOLY cow what a move….
SOE’s get used to it – We are now China.
Airline consolidation or murder?
Bond yields – Long bond yields up.
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Warm-Up
- Excitement over a change in tone from Powell (Powell throws the towel?)
- Crypto surges - then comes back down
- SOE - Get used to that
- Bond yields - Long bond up
Markets
- Hitting all-time highs
- Airline consolidation or murder?
- NVDA earnings - reports this week
- Some crypto really moving
Fed Firing
- How do we feel about the firing of Fed's Cook?
- Allegations, not confirmed
- Could this be a play to actually fire Powell?
--- Trump now says that this paves the way to him having a majority that soon will push rate lower (after firing Cook)
Windless
- Shutting down the alt-energy projects
- Wind turbines ugly and no good
- Shares in wind farm developer Orsted
- The U.S. government last week ordered the company to halt construction of an almost completed project.
- Late on Friday the U.S.? Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind Project off of Rhode Island. According to Orsted, the project is 80% complete and 45 out of 65 wind turbines have been installed
Pricing Power
- News that Spotify will raise prices as it invests in new features and targets 1 billion users
- said the price will rise to 11.99 euros ($14.05) from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.
- Price increases combined with cost-cutting efforts in recent years helped Spotify achieve its first annual profit last year.
Jackson Holy !!
- Powell hinted that maybe there would be a change to his thinking
- In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries.
- In particular, the market was enthused by Mr. Powell's line noting that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," which the market took as an open-mindedness to easing.
- The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now stands at 83.1%, up from 75.0% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Jackson - HOLY 2
- Markets reacted strongly in favor of a rate cut - hope
- DJIA up 800 - S&P and NASDAQ rallied
- Small Caps up close to 4%
- USD dove
- Yields - slightly lower
- Crypto - ETHER rallied hard - ATH
---- Give it a day and Ether and Bitcoin came back down to earth
Misunderstanding
- Cut rates so houses more affordable?
- Long rates moved higher -
NVDA
- Earnings due Wednesday After the close
- Nvidia makes up about 7.5% of the S&P 500.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates
Zacks Consensus: $1.00
Kiplinger Forecast: $1.01, up 48.5% year-over-year
MarketBeat Average: $0.97 (range: $0.92–$1.05)
- Revenue Estimates
Zacks Consensus: $46.14 billion
Kiplinger Forecast: $46.0 billion, a 53.1% increase YoY
MarketBeat Range: $44.1–$45.9 billion
- Forward-Looking EPS
FY 2026: $4.28 (Zacks), $4.12 (MarketBeat)
FY 2027: $5.70 (Zacks)
SOE - State Owned Enterprises
- We had better get use to it
- All the anger directed at China for this - as unfair practice
- Now, US takes a piece of Intel (10% for $2B ?)
- Wait - 10% is $10B value - is that right?
Intel Math (MATH?)
- The U.S. government acquired a 10% stake in Intel by converting $11.1 billion in previously issued grants and pledges into equity.
- It received 433.3 million non-voting shares priced at $20.47 each, totaling an initial valuation of $8.9 billion
- At the time of the deal, Intel's stock was trading at $24.80, giving the government's stake an immediate paper gain of $1.9 billion, bringing the current estimated value of the stake to approximately $11 billion
Spirit Doomed?
- Frontier on Tuesday announced 20 routes it plans to start this winter, many of them in major Spirit markets like its base at Fort Lauderdale International Airport in Florida.
- Frontier overlaps with Spirit on 35% of its capacity, more than any other airline
- Spirit lost $245million in the 2nd quarter - Frontier $70 million
- This could be the last hoorah for Spirit
- Maybe US Government will buy into
Next Up
- - Lutnick now talking about possibly USA getting a piece of Defense contractors
- Lutnick: Lockheed Martin, which makes most of its revenue from federal contracts, is “basically an arm of the U.S. government,” he said.
- Trump administration military leaders are “thinking about” whether the U.S. should acquire equity stakes in top defense contractors, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said.
180 Degree Turn
- Cracker Barrel Kerfuffle
- Cracker Barrel Old Country Store on Monday issued a statement responding to the backlash it faced last week over its rebranding and new logo.
- “We could’ve done a better job sharing who we are and who we’ll always be,” the restaurant chain said.
- Were people annoyed with the simple logo or why they removed the old man (old White Man Uncle Herschel)
--- OLD COUNTRY STORE was also removed
- Users on social media were quick to criticize the new logo, describing it as “generic,” “soulless” and “bland.”
Crypto
- BIG move post Powell
- Ether surged 15% late Friday, rising as high as $4,885.00 and surpassing its November 2021 record of $4,866.01
- The moves came during Powell’s annual address from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which he indicated conditions “may warrant” interest rate cuts."
- Ethereum doubled over the past two months
- Only about 800,000 ETH is expected to be created over the next year, while institutional demand could reach $20 billion. This 7x demand-to-supply ratio is pushing prices higher
Apple and Google
- Apple in early discussions to use Google’s Gemini AI models for an updated version of the iPhone maker’s Siri assistant.
- HMMMM - The reported talks come as Google faces potential risk to its lucrative search deals with Apple.
- This month, a U.S. judge is expected to rule on the penalties for Google’s alleged search monopoly, in which the Department of Justice recommends eliminating exclusionary agreements with third parties.
META and Google
- Google won a $10 billion cloud contract from Meta spanning six years, according to two people familiar with the matter.
- Meta has largely been reliant on Amazon Web Services for cloud infrastructure though it also uses Microsoft Azure.
-
Furniture Tariffs
- President Donald Trump threatened Friday to impose tariffs on furniture, adding to his levies on specific products and commodities.
Stocks for some furniture and home goods companies, including Wayfair, RH and Williams-Sonoma, tumbled after the market close, following Trump’s post.
- “Within the next 50 days, that Investigation will be completed, and Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “This will bring the Furniture Business back to North Carolina, South Carolina, Michigan, and States all across the Union.”
- Vietnam markets do not care - Up 55% since April low, 30% since just before tariff announcement.
- Beneficiary of the China hate?

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1 hr 3 min
August 20, 2025 DHUnplugged #765: Money Fishing
Bottom Fishing for bargains.
Consolidation, Digestion – awaiting the next catalyst.
Saudi SWF takes a hit.
The Jackson Hole confab is around the corner.
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Warm-Up
- Labubus - Beanie Babies ?
- US Debt - wretched
- Good fishing this weekend
- Chip Trackers
Markets
- Bottom Fishing
- Consolidation, Digestion - waiting for the next catalyst
- Saudi SWF takes a hit
- Validations - to the MOON
- Casual Dining take a hit
Weekend Fishing
- Marlin, Roosterfish and Yellowfin Tuna
- 2 bucket list items
The CONFAB
- August 21 to August 23
- Theme: Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy
- Powell to speak Friday at 10am
- Historically:
---- 1989: Alan Greenspan became the first Fed Chair to formally participate in the program, establishing a tradition of Fed leadership using the event to signal policy direction (Volker stopped by in 1982)
--- 2010: Ben Bernanke used the symposium to signal QE2
--- 2014: Mario Draghi, ECB President, hinted at aggressive stimulus to combat Europe’s sluggish growth, influencing currency markets
--- 2020: Jerome Powell announced the Fed’s new “average inflation targeting” framework, allowing inflation to run above 2% temporarily to support employment growth
More Jackson Hole
- Many are saying this is the be the defining moment in Powell's Career
- Certainly the last one attending that he will be chair
- Odds are that he will look to continue the Fed independence and data dependency talk
US Debt
- The federal government's gross national debt topped $37 trillion for the first time in history last week, and the U.S. has room to add trillions of dollars more to the debt following the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
- OBBBA included a $5 trillion debt limit increase to avert a potential stand-off over the borrowing limit ($41 trillion limit)
- US Debt to GDP = 100%
- Every American owes $111,045 (Assuming spread evenly)
- 25 years ago it was $19,000 er person
LabooooBooo
- Labubus, the quirky monster plush dolls made by Pop Mart, have exploded into a global phenomenon, doubling as collectibles and fashion accessories for adults.
- In the first half of 2025, Labubu-related products generated a staggering $418 million in global sales for Pop Mart, with nearly 40% of revenue last year coming from outside mainland China. The company says sales in the first six months of this year are on track to more than triple, fueled by what’s become a full-blown international craze.
- The thrill of the hunt. Labubus are only available through online purchases and in-store pickups, if you can find one in stock. Adding to the scarcity factor is the blind-box packaging – you never know which character you’ll get.
- Some collectors chase elusive "secret" editions, with odds as low as 1 in 72.
Investing - A better Way?
- Powerball jackpot grows to estimated $643 million after no one won Monday night's drawing
- Next drawing - Wednesday night
- The jackpot is a new high for 2025
- he highest Powerball jackpot ever was $2.04 billion, won on November 7, 2022 by a single ticket sold in California.
- The winner, Edwin Castro, opted for the lump sum payout of $997.6 million
Energy Needed
- Google and Kairos Power will deploy an advanced nuclear reactor to help power the tech company’s data centers on the Tennessee Valley Authority grid.
- The Hermes 2 reactor developed by Kairos will dispatch 50 megawatts of electricity, enough to power about 36,000 homes.
- TVA will purchase the electricity from the reactor, making it the first utility in the U.S. to sign an offtake agreement with an advanced nuclear plant.
- Google, Kairos and TVA said their collaboration will move the U.S. a step closer to deploying advanced nuclear reactors by making sure consumers are not on the hook for the cost of building the plant.
- In other words, public-private and private industry is footing the bill for their own utility infrastructure build out.
Chip Trackers
- U.S. authorities have secretly placed location tracking devices in targeted shipments of advanced chips they see as being at high risk of illegal diversion to China, according to two people with direct knowledge of the previously unreported law enforcement tactic.
- The measures aim to detect AI chips being diverted to destinations which are under U.S. export restrictions, and apply only to select shipments under investigation, the people said.
- None of this is really supposed to be know and if it was - to what extent?
Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue
_ Cisco reported results on Wednesday that narrowly exceeded analysts’ expectations and issued quarterly guidance that was also better than expected.
- Earnings per share: 99 cents adjusted vs. 98 cents expected
- Revenue: $14.67 billion vs. $14.62 billion expected
- Management called for 97 cents to 99 cents in fiscal first-quarter adjusted earnings per share on $14.65 billion to $14.85 billion in revenue
Bottom Fishing
- Lots of news...... Intel and UNH
- UnitedHealth shares soared after Warren Buffett (Berkshire) revealed a stake of 5 million shares, worth about $1.6 billion, in the troubled health insurer.
- The “Big Short” investor Michael Burry and Appaloosa Management’s David Tepper also disclosed sizable stakes in the company.
- The health-care stock ended the day up 12%, its best daily performance since March 2020
- Vote of confidence - Stock has some backers- more may come to the rescue as they accumulate shares (first accumulate, then disclose)
More Bottom Fishing?
- Let's get busy!
- First the US government teases abut taking a 10% stake - not sure how...
- Now Softbank initiates a $2 billion investment
- SoftBank not seeking board seat or committing to buy Intel chips- this was a capital infusion
- - Most analysts see this nothing more that Masayoshi Son trying to keep good relations with President Trump
Saudi SWF
- 8% writedown is on a decline in investments on GigaProjects (New cities, Entertainment Complex, Heritage preservation, Urban parks, Urban redevelopment)
- The PIF’s assets under management climbed 19% from the end of 2023 to $913 billion, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing sovereign wealth funds on the planet. (The investment portion of the fund)
- No Wonder there is so much money flowing into stocks over the past year - AND this is just one SWF
Valuation Evaluation
- Open AI - OpenAI is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday.
- Company is is preparing to sell around $6 billion in stock as part of a secondary sale that would value the company at roughly $500 billion, CNBC confirmed Friday.
Japan Economy
- Japan’s economy expanded 0.3% in the second quarter of 2025 from the previous first three months, outpacing forecasts despite tariff headwinds out of the United States.
- Last quarter there was a contraction - so no recession
- The GDP beat was mainly attributed to resilience in exports, which added 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, compared to the 0.8% contraction in the first quarter of the year.
Predicti0ns and Observations
- David Rosenberg - "Guess what the biggest driver of this stock market rally has been? Leverage. For the first time ever, margin debt has topped $1 trillion and has ballooned +25% over the past year. Fully one-fifth of all the leverage supporting the stock market has been built up just in the past year alone; almost half of the outstanding margin debt has come in the past five years alone."
- M2 (money supply) has also increase dramatically
Fast Casual
- Cava, Chipotle and other fast-casual restaurant chains are finally hit by consumer slowdown
- Cava stock tumbled 16% in afternoon trading on Wednesday, making it the latest fast-casual chain to feel Wall Street’s wrath after reporting disappointing quarterly sales.
- So far in 2025, Shake Shack shares have fallen 16%; Chipotle stock has slid 28%; Cava shares have tumbled 37%; and Sweetgreen stock has plunged 70%
- Wingstop has managed to stay in the green this year, with gains of 20%.
Extortion Anyone?
- US Government now wants equity from Intel as a part of the money provided in CHIPS act
- 10% for $10b grant
- How is this rewritten after the fact? The idea was to create obs and manufacturing in return for these grants
- Mentioned that they will extend to other CHIPS Act recipients as well

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1 hr 7 min
August 13, 2025 DHUnplugged #764: CHINUS Capitalism
China Style Capitalism – CHINUS Capitalism
Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now
Fresh set of IPOs entering the market
A NEW Closest to The Pin announcement
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Warm-Up
- China Style Capitalism - CHINUS Capitalism
- Some Fed speakers talking 2 cuts now
- Fresh set of IPOs entering the market
- A NEW Closest to The Pin
- AND a couple of listener limericks
Markets
- New Highs and Crypto looks to breakout
- Apple best week since 2020
- Alts coming to your 401k
- Gold - no longer to be tariff'd
- NVDA chips - not safe?
Fed Speakers
- Some talking 3 rate cuts... End of year?
- CPI and PPI this week so we shall see
-- Seems like kiss ass tactcs to keep job or get promoted
New America Way of Business? - CHINUS
- Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices have agreed to give the U.S. government a share of revenues from certain chips sold in China, the Financial Times reported, in an unprecedented arrangement with the White House.
- In exchange for 15% of revenues from the chip sales, the two chipmakers will receive export licenses to sell Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308 chips in China, according to the FT.
- The arrangement comes as President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to reverberate through the global economy, underscoring the White House’s willingness to carve out exceptions as a bargaining tool. (Who is this bargaining with????)
Perplexing
- Perplexity offered to purchase Google's (GOOG) Chrome for $34.5 billion, according to WSJ
- Google doesn’t break out Chrome-specific revenue, analysts estimate its indirect contribution to ad revenue is tens of billions annually. Losing Chrome would weaken Google’s ability to control defaults and gather behavioral data, which are critical for ad targeting
- Analysts suggest Chrome could be worth $50 billion or more if Google were forced to sell, given its user base and strategic importance
-
IPOs
- The U.S. IPO market has surged in 2025, with over 210 listings so far—up 84% from last year. Notable performers include:
- Figma, Inc. – IPO at $33, now trading at $78.11 (+136.70%)
- Ambiq Micro, Inc. – IPO at $24, now $39.47 (+64.46%)
- inkhome Holdings Inc. – IPO at $4, now $7.50 (+87.50%)
- Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited – IPO at $4, now $35.09 (+777.25%)
- Masonglory Limited – IPO at $4, now $12.00 (+200.00%)
- Firefly Aerospace Inc. – IPO at $45, now $50.17 (+11.49%)
- HeartFlow, Inc. – IPO at $19, now $28.75 (+51.32%)
JOBS Report FIX
- BLS Commissioner nominee E.J. Antoni suggested that monthly jobs report could be paused to fix methodology, according to Fox Business interview
- Many are worrying about the FIX - is it a fix or will it be fixed...?
- More than 2,000 people work at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), including professional economists and survey takers who contribute to the production of the monthly jobs report
- The Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has no direct role in collecting, processing, or altering the monthly jobs report data. Here's a breakdown of how the system is designed to prevent manipulation
---The commissioner does not see the jobs data until the Wednesday before its public release on Friday
- But, let's discuss - how can the commissioner change the numbers?
Intel - 96 hours of fun
- Intel stock up as White House going to force TSM to buy into company
- Intel stock down as White House recommends firing CEO
- Intel Stock up after CEO meeting with Trump in White House
Apple
- Best week since July 2020
- Apple shares rose 13% this week, its largest weekly gain in more than five years, after CEO Tim Apple appeared with President Donald Trump in the White House on Wednesday.
- $400 Billion in market cap with promise to increase spend in America of $100B (chips, manufacturing etc)
- Brings the total promised to $600B since Trump's first term
- There are no official known records that show how much was spent of the $500 billion
- NO TEETH
NVDA- Risk to China
- Nvidia’s chips pose security concerns for China, a social media account affiliated with China’s state media said on Sunday, after Beijing raised concerns over backdoor access in those chips.
- The H20 chips are also not technologically advanced or environmentally friendly, the account, Yuyuan Tantian, which is affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, said in an article published on WeChat.
- “When a type of chip is neither environmentally friendly, nor advanced, nor safe, as consumers, we certainly have the option not to buy it,” the article concluded.
401ks
- The new White House order directing regulators to expand access to alternative investments in 401(k) plans, like crypto or privately owned companies adds a new layer of risk to the retirement portfolios for ordinary investors that they may not fully understand, investment professionals say.
- Private equity and other alternative asset funds have increasingly been raising capital from wealthy individuals but are traditionally designed for institutional investors and typically include layers of fees. Private equity, for instance, has long had the "2 and 20" structure: managers collect a 2% overall fee, as well as 20% of any gains.
- Risk, lock ups, irregular valuations
- How is this just approved by the White House? The Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration (EBSA) is the primary government agency that oversees 401(k) plans. They ensure compliance with the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA) and other relevant legislation.
Softbank - Riding High
- Shares of SoftBank Group ended Friday 10.39% higher at 13,865, paring gains from its record of 14,390 earlier in the session following the company’s higher-than-expected fiscal first-quarter profit.
- SoftBank shares have extended gains to a fourth straight session, and closed at a record high on Thursday, before the company released its earnings.
- SoftBank’s profits for the April to June quarter came in at 421.8 billion yen ($2.87 billion), substantially overshooting LSEG consensus estimates of127.6 billion yen.
- AI bets fueling shares - Vision Fund
- - History:
- Launched Yahoo! Japan in the 1990s
- Acquired Vodafone Japan in 2006 (now SoftBank Corp., Japan’s third-largest wireless carrier).
- Invested early in Alibaba, turning a $20 million stake into tens of billions
Trade Desk
- Shares of The Trade Desk plummeted 39% on Friday, their worst day on record, after the ad-tech company announced the departure of its CFO and analysts expressed concerns about rising competition from Amazon
- The Trade Desk, which went public in 2016, suffered its steepest prior drop in February, when the shares fell 33% on a revenue miss. In its second-quarter earnings report late Thursday, the company beat expectations on earnings and revenue, but the results failed to impress investors.
- The Trade Desk, which specializes in providing technology to companies that want to target users across the web
- Big concern was the growing role of Amazon in the advert space. Also, Meta's AI ad placement probably not helping.
Pulse of the World?
- Maersk CEO flags strong demand ‘pretty much everywhere’ except for the U.S. as outlook raised
- Shipping giant Maersk on Thursday reported better-than-expected quarterly profit, defying trade fears even as the industry navigates a new era of tariff complexity.
- Maersk also raised its full-year guidance and the outlook for global container market volume growth.
--- Maersk raised its full-year 2025 financial guidance, saying underlying EBITDA this year is expected to come in between $8 billion to $9.5 billion, up from previous guidance of between $6 billion to $9 billion.
- “Outside of the United States, we see a continued very strong demand and that is fueling the earnings and the upgrade that we were able to do today,” CEO Vincent Clerc.
SPORTS Hookup
- Walt Disney's ESPN has reached a landmark deal with the National Football League to acquire NFL Network and other media assets from the league in exchange for the NFL taking a 10% equity stake in the sports network, the parties said on Tuesday.
- NFL will take a 10% equity stake in ESPN
- Stake could be worth $2 billion to $3 billion, analysts and industry insiders say
- Potential Conflict of interest? ESPN has a sportsbook - ESPN Bet... (Deal remains subject to regulatory approval)
Lilly
- New weight loss pill effective - 12% reduction in body weight after 72 weeks late-stage trial
- They bring Eli Lilly’s pill, orforglipron, one step closer to potentially becoming a new, needle-free alternative without dietary restrictions in the booming market for weight loss and diabetes drugs called GLP-1s.

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ANNNOUNCING
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FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS
Keith Jacobs
In finance, a trader did crack.
Buxom tracks had investors aback.
While she'd trade with great zest,
And made some quite the best,
Her returns just often won’t rack.
In the Fed halls, a plan did rise,
To tame inflation so outsize'.
With dollar-backed might,
And digital right?
Now wait for a crypto surprise.

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1 hr 8 min
August 06, 2025 DHUnplugged #763: The Bend and Snap
Employment Report – Revisions Gone Wild
But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap)
Earnings Season – Plenty of CapX
Boeing making moves – unions may strike
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INTERACTIVE BROKERS
Warm-Up
- Fed - Standing Pat
- Tariffs ON ( with some delays, pauses and delays
- India taking Heat
- OPEC at it Again
Markets
-Employment Report - Revisions Gone Wild
- But The Dip (Aka The Bend and Snap)
- Earnings Season - Plenty of CapX
- Boeing making moves - unions may strike
The Bend and Snap
- That is the markets - any little movement down - snaps right back up (Buy Dip with a Legally Blonde flair)
- Monday saw a huge reversal after the VIX hit 21.50 and small caps were down as much as 3% after the July Employment report and lackluster earnings
Jobs Report
- 4.2% Unemployment Rate
- Only added 73,000 in July
- Revisions for May and June were larger than normal.
- The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised down by 125,000, from +144,000 to +19,000, and the change for June was revised down by 133,000, from +147,000 to +14,000.
- With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 258,000 lower than previously reported.
THEN.....
- President Donald Trump on Friday fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, hours after the agency reported that job growth in the U.S. had slowed to a near-halt.
- “We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY,” Trump posted on Truth Social.
GDP
- Gross domestic product jumped 3% for the second quarter, better than the 2.3% estimate and reversing a 0.5% decline in the prior period.
- Consumer spending rose 1.4% in the second quarter, better than the 0.5% in the prior period.
- While exports declined 1.8% during the period, imports fell 30.3%, reversing a 37.9% surge in Q1.
- HUGE Number - flurry after some Tariff uncertainty lifted in April
OIL
- OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September, the latest in a series of accelerated output hikes to regain market share, as concerns mount over potential supply disruptions linked to Russia.
- The move marks a full and early reversal of OPEC+'s largest tranche of output cuts plus a separate increase in output for the United Arab Emirates amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of world demand.
- In a statement following the meeting, OPEC+ cited a healthy economy and low stocks as reasons behind its decision.
- Eight countries to hike September output by 547,000 bpd
- Oil supported by US demands for India to stop buying Russian oil
Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/
Earnings News
Coinbase
- Coinbase shares fell after gains in the cryptocurrency exchange’s subscription revenue failed to offset weaker trading volumes.
- Revenue rose slightly to $1.5 billion from $1.45 billion in the same quarter last year, but fell short of analyst estimates.
- Coinbase reported that retail trading volume, which is typically more profitable than institutional volume, grew 16% year-over-year to $43 billion, but missed the $48.05 billion expected by analysts survey
Reddit
- Revenue grew 78% year-over-year in the second quarter and was 17% above consensus estimates, the biggest beat in the company’s short history as a public company.
- Reddit said third-quarter revenue will be in the range of $535 million to $545 million, ahead of Wall Street estimates of $473 million.
- Adjusted earnings in the third quarter are projected to be in between $185 million to $195 million, ahead of StreetAccount’s estimates of $160 million.
- Shares surged on the news
Berkshire
- Berkshire’s operating profit — those from the company’s wholly owned businesses including insurance and railroads — dipped to $11.16 billion in the second quarter.
- Buffett’s cash hoard of $344.1 billion remained near a record high, though slightly lower than the $347 billion level at the end of March.
- Berkshire was a net seller of stocks for a 11th quarter in a row, dumping $4.5 billion in equities in the first six months of 2025.
- More importantly: The conglomerate also didn’t repurchase any stock in the first half of 2025 even as shares declined more than 10% from a record high.
Apple
- Apple reports biggest revenue growth since December 2021
- Earnings per share: $1.57 vs. $1.43 expected
- Revenue: $94.04 billion vs. $89.53 billion expected
- iPhone revenue: $44.58 billion vs. $40.22 billion expected
- Mac revenue: $8.05 billion vs. $7.26 billion expected
- iPad revenue: $6.58 billion vs. $7.24 billion expected
- Other Products revenue: $7.40 billion vs. $7.82 billion expected
- Services revenue: $27.42 billion vs. $26.80 billion expected
- Gross margin: 46.5% vs. 45.9% expected
- Apple incurred $800 million in tariff costs in the June quarter, Apple CEO Tim Cook said on the call. That came in lower than the $900 million estimate the company provided in May. For the September quarter, assuming no changes, Apple could incur about $1.1 billion in tariff costs, Cook said.
- STOCK DOWN after report
Amazon
- Earnings per share: $1.68 vs. $1.33 expected
- Revenue: $167.7 billion vs. $162.09 billion expected
- Amazon Web Services: $30.87 billion vs. $30.8 billion expected
- Advertising: $15.7 billion vs. $14.9 billion expected
- For the current quarter, Amazon said it expects operating income to land between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion. Analysts were looking for $19.48 billion
- STOCK DOWN after report
Fall From Grace
- UnitedHealth Group on Tuesday issued a 2025 outlook that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, as the company’s insurance unit continues to grapple with higher medical costs.
- The company anticipates it will post 2025 adjusted earnings of at least $16 per share, with revenue of $445.5 billion to $448 billion.
- Wall Street analysts had expected 2025 adjusted profit of $20.91 per share, and full-year revenue of $449.16 billion, according to consensus estimates
AMD Earnings
- An OKAY quarter - met expectations on EPS beat revenues, guides revenues for next quarter above analysts estimates
-- Big revenue promises again into the future - but that did not help the stock (dvanced Micro Devices sees Q3 revs $8.4-9.0 bln vs $8.32 bln FactSet Consensus )
- Non-GAAP gross margin of 43% compared to 53% in year-earlier quarter.
- Down 6% after hours
Weird Story
- High Noon has issued a recall of one of its popular vodka seltzer drinks, saying some packages may contain Celsius energy drink cans filled with the alcoholic beverage.
- The cans, labeled as Celsius Astro Vibe Sparkling Blue Razz Edition, were found in certain shipments of High Noon’s Beach Variety 12-packs.
- The issue was traced to a packaging supplier that accidentally sent Celsius-branded cans to High Noon’s facility
- They were distributed to multiple states including Florida, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.
FOMC Meeting
- 2 dissents - as expected
- No change in rate - outlook is fluid
- Still sees risk of inflation
- BUT, now that 50k revisions to jobs number.....?????
Scabs
- More than 3,200 union members who assemble Boeing's fighter jets in the St. Louis area and Illinois went on strike on Monday after rejecting a second contract offer the previous day.
- Boeing Defense said it was ready for the work stoppage and it will implement a contingency plan that uses non-labor workers.
- According to the company, the rejected four-year contract would have raised the average wage by roughly 40% and included a 20% general wage increase and a $5,000 ratification bonus. It also included increasing periodic raises, more vacation time and sick leave.
Joby Deal
- Electric Aircraft business is acquiring Blade's passenger business for $125M
- Reasoning has to do with the commercial operations in Dubai???
Lyft and Baidu
- Baidu will bring its driverless taxis to Europe next year via a partnership with U.S. ridehailing firm Lyft as the Chinese tech giant looks to expand its autonomous vehicles globally.
- The robotaxis will initially be deployed in the U.K. and Germany from 2026 with the aim to have “thousands” of vehicles across Europe in the “following years,” the two companies said.
Interesting as Lyft was always DOMESTIC and this is a big move and new potential competition to Uber
Coinbase -Debase
- Shares of Coinbase slid on Tuesday as the company announced a $2 billion private offering of convertible senior notes.
- Shres down 30% sine high in Mid-July
- Genius Act pushed optimism, then faded?
- RobinHood (hood) taking market share? (up 165% YTD)
--- Comments in Barron's that Coinbase and Hood could be added to SP500
Flow-o-Funds
- With $121 billion flowing into ETFs industrywide in July, the yearly tally hit $677 billion and is now on pace for a record $1.3 trillion for 2025, as tracked by State Street Research
- While U.S. equity ETFs maintained their dominance, netting over $56.9 billion in July, foreign rivals are seeing a renaissance as investors seek more diversification. Non-U.S. equity ETFs saw $24 billion in new money.
In closing...
- Tariffs on Pharma
- President Donald Trump told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that planned tariffs on pharmaceuticals imported into the U.S. could eventually reach up to 250%, the highest rate he has threatened so far.
- He said he will initially impose a “small tariff” on pharmaceuticals, but then in one year to a year and a half “maximum” he will raise that rate to 150% and then 250%.
- But since we will be getting a 1500% cost cut, this would still be FREE

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1 hr 5 min