Rough Week - does not phase bulls!

Bitcoin - Bottoming?

Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again

Homeowners! Mortgage Reform?

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Warm-Up

- Short Week - Markets closed on Thursday and short Friday (1pm)

- Can't have a down week for TDAY! - Too much table talk

- Recession News

- Let's take a look at Walmart and Target again

- Homeowners! Mortgage Reform?

Markets

- Rough Week - does not phase bulls!

- Bitcoin - Bottoming?

- NVDA - China Bound?

- NASDAQ Weighting

Inflation - Still Up There

- They are now pressing for a cut in December (How are we handicapping this?)

- All of a sudden the parade of Fed speakers - all seem a bit more dovish.

Meanwhile

- President Donald Trump on Friday rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including such staples as coffee, beef, bananas and orange juice, in the face of growing angst among American consumers about the high cost of groceries.

- oranges, acai berries and paprika to cocoa, chemicals used in food production, fertilizers and even communion wafers.

Quantum Stocks

GOOD NEWS!

- NO Recession risk!

- Bessent says inflation due to services economy, not tariffs

- Treasury secretary says Republicans should end filibuster in event of another shutdown

- Bessent says administration working to lower prices where it can

- Banking and insurance,  Software development and cloud services, Tourism, Restaurants and hospitality , Professional services (law, accounting, consulting)

Rigging it

- NEC Director Kevin Hassett emerges as frontrunner for Fed Chair as President Trump nears decision, according to Bloomberg

Weird News

- Buried in the NVDA earnings report

- Remember back in September, the two companies announced a massive partnership that would include a $100 billion investment over time by Nvidia into OpenAI.

- Nvidia said in its quarterly financial filing that there’s no guarantee that the company will finalize an agreement with OpenAI.

- Soooooo - is this all hot air????

More NVDA

- Here we go. Another reversal

- President Donald Trump will make a final decision on whether to allow Nvidia Corp. to sell advanced artificial intelligence chips to China.

- The decision involves weighing the promotion of economic expansion against protecting national security, according to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.

------ Read that again - money versus national security

- Allowing the sales would mark a significant easing of restrictions imposed in 2022 to prevent Beijing and its military from accessing the most powerful US technologies.

Chip in question: H200

- Had some discussions about this - might as well as they will just get it on their own and this way we can control. (On the other hand, they have a long history of outsmarting us)

EVEN MORE

- NVIDIA issues memo to CNBC: The company said "We are not aware of any claims that NVDA has improperly capitalized operating expenses. Several commentators allege that customers have overstated earnings by extending GPU depreciation schedules beyond economic useful life" |

- The tip of the Iceberg - this is what Michael Burry has been pressing.....

HPQ Earnings

- HP Inc. beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus; increases dividend; announces company-wide initiative, includes job cuts

- Stock down 6%

Amazon

- The Spend keeps going...

- Amazon.com Inc. says it will spend as much as $50 billion expanding its capacity to provide artificial intelligence and high-performance computing services to US government entities.

- Amazon Web Services plans to break ground next year on what will ultimately be 1.3 gigawatts of additional capacity across data centers designed for federal agencies, the company said in a blog post on Monday.

Google/Berkshire

- Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O), further reduced its stake in Apple

- Google on a ramp since - new Gemini and...

- Meta Platforms Inc. is in talks to spend billions on Google’s AI chips, adding to a months long share rally as the search giant has made the case it can rival Nvidia Corp. as a leader in artificial intelligence technology.

- Meta is in discussions to use the Google chips — known as tensor processing units, or TPUs — in data centers in 2027, and may rent chips from Google’s cloud division next year.

- Really smart people at Berkshire? What did they know?

NASDAQ 100 - Uninvestable?

- Top 10 stocks are over 70% weighting

- SP500 top 10 stocks = 38%

- This is not a diversified approach any longer

- Coming up on next week's TDI Podcast - Howard Silverblatt - S&P Dow Jones - Keeper of the data

Something They Don't Want You To Know

- “Magnificent 7” Companies Reported Lowest Earnings Growth Since Q1 2023

- With NVIDIA reporting actual results for Q3 on November 19, all the companies in the “Magnificent 7” have now reported earnings for the third quarter.

- “Magnificent 7” companies reported actual earnings growth of 18.4% for the third quarter. This earnings growth rate is below the average earnings growth rate of 28.8% for these seven companies over the previous four quarters.

Novo Nordisk - Pummeled

- Shares of Novo Nordisk on Monday fell to a four-year low after the Danish pharmaceutical company said a highly anticipated trial for Alzheimer’s disease failed to meet its main goal.

- The trial tested whether semaglutide — the active ingredient in Novo’s blockbuster diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy — helped slow progression for Alzheimer’s disease.

-While treatment with semaglutide resulted in improvement of Alzheimer’s disease-related biomarkers in two separate trials, this did not translate into a delay of disease progression, Novo said in a statement Monday. The goal had been to slow patients’ cognitive decline by at least 20%.

- Reminiscent of Pfizer - after Covid shot had noting left...

Bitcoin

- Live by the sword....

- iShares Bitcoin Trust had $2.2 billion in net outflows in November, according to WSJ

- Big month of losses for crypto - not too much mention and support by Whitehouse

- Selling started - coincidentally with  the pardon of Changpeng Zhao, the convicted founder of the Binance

Remember DOGE

- DOGE disbanded eight months ahead of scheduled end in July 2026

- Former DOGE employees take new roles in administration

- Elon Musk initially led DOGE, promoting its work on social media - bagged out when stock tanked

- DOGE claimed to have slashed tens of billions of dollars in expenditures, but it was impossible for outside financial experts to verify that because the unit did not provide detailed public accounting of its work.

Walmart

- Walmart raised its sales and earnings outlook last week as the retailer posted revenue gains in its fiscal third quarter, driven by double-digit e-commerce growth and new customers across incomes.

- The retailer said it expects full-year net sales to climb between 4.8% and 5.1%, up from its previous expectations of 3.75% to 4.75%.

- It said it expects its adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.58 to $2.63, a slight raise from its prior range of $2.52 to $2.62.

- Stock went vertical ----

- Much different story than Target

- WMT up 16% YTD - TGT down 37%

Beef Prices - Not Going Down

- Tyson Foods stock rallying on Monday following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal.

- The decision comes as the meat and poultry giant grapples with historically low U.S. cattle inventories, which have severely compressed margins and led to a reported $426 mln adjusted operating loss for its beef segment in FY25.|

- Seems that investors like this decisive cost-cutting measure, viewing the capacity reduction as a necessary step toward restoring profitability in a challenging commodity environment.

Japan

- Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's cabinet approved a 21.3 trillion yen ($135.40 billion) economic stimulus package last Friday, marking the first major policy initiative under the new leader, who has pledged to pursue expansionary fiscal measures.

- The package includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion yen and representing the largest stimulus since the COVID pandemic. It will also include 2.7 trillion yen in tax cuts.

- Problem is that the Yen is sliding and intervention is imminent

- Inflation issue and they will make it worse with this stimulus

Larry Summers?

- Epstein Files

- IS there any There , There?

Talk about a 50 Year Mortgage?

- Such a bad idea  - and these boneheads think it is smart

- 30-Year Mortgage

Monthly Payment: $1,610.46

Total Payment: $579,767.35

Total Interest Paid: $279,767.35

- 50-Year Mortgage

Monthly Payment: $1,362.42

Total Payment: $817,449.78

Total Interest Paid: $517,449.78

Thanksgiving Costs 2025

National Average (American Farm Bureau Survey)

- 2025: $55.18 for a classic dinner for 10 people (about $5.52 per person)

- 2024: $58.08 for the same meal

- Change: Down 5% year-over-year

This is the third consecutive annual decline since the record high of $64.05 in 2022.

Key Drivers

Turkey prices dropped sharply: A 16-pound frozen turkey averages $21.50, down 16% from 2024.

Sides are mixed:

Dinner rolls and stuffing are cheaper (down 14.6% and 9%).

Sweet potatoes and veggie trays are much higher (up 37% and 61%).

Regional Differences

South: $50.01 (most affordable)

West: $61.75 (most expensive)