DHUnplugged #680: Too Many Bulls

Everyone is bullish - that seems a bit overdone at this point.

Tax Trap - Watch-out!

Economic data remains strong - jobs data showing weakness (JOLTS)

Bond yields sink - herd mentality and Fed bulls working it.

PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts!

Click HERE for Show Notes and Links

DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar.

Love the Show? Then how about a Donation?

Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter

Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Warm Up

- So many bulls! Deafening.... (we know what that usually means..)

- A new book for young investors - can we discuss or still a secret?

- China - credit rating issue

- My favorite charade,, scheme, scam of 2023

Market Update

- Gold at all-time high!

- Bitcoin Update - Moving

- Alt assets picking up - good or bad?

- Big money into Money markets - watch out for this trap

Bitcoin

- Bitcoin hit $44,000 on Tuesday, its highest in almost a year and a half, fueled by bets that U.S. regulators will soon approve stock-market traded bitcoin funds.

- Bitcoin is up 55% from the year's low of $26,533 on Oct. 11.

- UP 165% YTD

- Still way off record high of $69k - Nov 2021

Gold

- Hitting ATH

-- Reasons?? Risk -off or USD sinking?

- Gold miners ETF still 10% below 2023 peak

--- Time to buy?

Rare Earth Metals

- Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones and other electronics.

- China began to rapidly expand in the industry starting during the 1980s and now controls 87% of global rare earths refining capacity

- US spots in Alaska and other western states starting to look for ways to mine - in "clean" and efficient manner

- FYI - RARE is not really rare

- Considered RARE only due to difficulty in extraction process

- These elements rarely exist in pure form; they are usually found within other minerals, making them costly to mine.

Oil Prices

- Now Sitting at $72

--- OPEC+ can't seem to agree and now concern demand waning

CHINA

- Ratings agency Moody's downgraded its outlook on China's government credit ratings to negative from stable

- Moody's expects Beijing's support and possible bailouts for distressed local governments and state-owned enterprises to diminish China's fiscal, economic and institutional strength.

- Moody's though retained China's "A1" long-term rating on the country's sovereign bonds,

- Seems like this is going to be happening for a while - rolling downgrades of countries with excessive debt

Canada

- Greater Toronto Area home prices fell in November as higher borrowing costs crimped affordability, while the level of sales edged higher for the first time in six months

- The seasonally adjusted average home price fell 2.2% in November from October to C$1,104,062 ($815,769), marking the fourth decline in the last five months.

- New listings climbed 16.5% year-over-year but decelerating from the 38% pace of increase posted in October.

Switzerland

- A major Swiss bank admitted to conspiring with U.S. taxpayers and others to hide over $5.6 billion from the Internal Revenue Service

- Banque Pictet, the private banking division of the 218-year-old Pictet Group, will pay about $122.9 million in restitution and penalties as part of an agreement with prosecutors

- Where does that money go?

- Between 2008 and 2014, the bank had 1,637 accounts on behalf of American clients, who collectively evaded approximately $50.6 million in U.S. taxes, the DOJ said.

- The accounts themselves held more than $5.6 billion of the roughly $20 billion in total assets from U.S. taxpayers that the bank managed during the relevant period.

----- Does taxpayer have to pay anything?

- Swiss banks are not so special anymore...

VIX and Gamma

- An epic rally in U.S. stocks has sent Wall Street's fear gauge to a post-pandemic low.