As recently as September 2021, outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel described economic relations between Europe and China as "win-win.” Within nine months, the EU's de facto Foreign Minister Josep Borrell described EU-China relations as "a dialogue of the deaf."

Geopolitics rarely moves at that speed. Even if by then Merkel was trying to gild her legacy and Borrell often says the wrong thing at the wrong time, there is no doubt that the prevailing view of China in many European capitals has suddenly flipped from growing cooperation to feared confrontation.

What happened? Did President Xi’s hardening approaches—from wolf warrior diplomacy to his “No Limits” commitment to Russia to lecturing Western leaders—shock European leaders? Did American pressure on 5G, Huawei and microchips force a strategic rethink? Can Europe actually afford to confront China?

Andrew Small has answers. A deeply experienced policy analyst, Small is a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, and recently published, "No Limits: The Inside Story of China's War with the West." That book and this conversation explain how and why he thinks that the Chinese challenge is dramatically and dangerously changing.

What do you think?