Keith and Ethan discuss the US government's declining ability to understand what is happening with the economy as a result of the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They also discuss whether an entire generation has been trained to "buy the dip" -- and what the implications for investors might be.

With increased inflation just over the horizon, Keith and Ethan discuss and rate the growing number of drivers of price increases.

With Ethan on break, Keith does a special video episode to take a look at economic data, finding that Trump's decisions have barely registered yet in several key economic indicators. But a quick review of pandemic era inflation data suggests it could take up to a year to really see policy impacts in the data.

Some useful links:

BLS interactive consumer prices graph

St. Louis Fed breakeven employment study

With the US formally entering the war in Iran, there is yet one more reason to feel the world is on fire. How do we think about markets and war -- and the specter of nuclear proliferation?

With market enthusiasm for AI contributing to the recent run up in stocks, Keith and Ethan question whether investors have become irrationally exuberant, with a bubble in the making.

It's clear that consumer debt -- mortgages, credit cards, student loans, and car loans -- is rising. But are consumer debts approaching levels that could tip the US into recession? Or are consumers in ok shape, historically speaking? Keith and Ethan argue both sides to tease apart what's really going on.

The ongoing uncertainty in Trump's tariff policies create a confusing landscape for investors and consumers wondering where things will land. Keith and Ethan discuss the possibilities and discuss whether the market's resiliency has everything to do with Wall Street's TACO beliefs.

With the US in clear economic decline during Trump's second term, should we be rethinking traditional recommendations and increasing our investments overseas? What does history tell us about market performance -- has the US always outperformed, or is there a cyclical pattern to watch for?

With growing inflation and a falling dollar strong possibilities, Keith and Ethan discuss the opportunities and challenges of investing in foreign markets and companies, including the important possibility that the US technology and startup ecosystem may overcome all the Trump downsides and continue to thrive.

After weeks of stock market gains and a 90 day tariff agreement with China, Keith and Ethan confront the possibility that maybe this time isn't actually that different.

But as they talk through continued tariff uncertainty, the economic effects of the destruction of the country's publicly funded medical research apparatus and more, the red flags mount. By the the end of this episode, at least one of the co-hosts makes the hard choice to exit US index funds for the time being.

Keith and Ethan update Nassim Taleb's 2007 metaphor on market risk and discuss the challenge of pursuing incremental market gains without exposing oneself to the risk of catastrophic losses. They discuss their own humbling examples of getting it wrong, and how investing well requires accounting for your own fallibility. A brief examination of Japan's 35-year stock market nightmare provides fodder for what a really bad scenario could look like.