Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard presented the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on March 18th, laying out the most pressing security challenges facing the United States across the homeland and globally.
In her opening remarks, Gabbard highlighted significant progress on border security, noting that January 2026 encounters at the U.S. Mexico border dropped 83.8 percent compared to January 2025, attributed to strict enforcement policies. The assessment emphasized threats from transnational criminal organizations like MS-13, which operates in established cells throughout the country and engages in murder, extortion, drug trafficking, and firearms offenses.
On terrorism, the intelligence community assessed that Al-Qaeda has between 15,000 to 28,000 members worldwide, while ISIS has 12,000 to 18,000 members. Both groups continue to pose significant threats overseas, particularly in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. The assessment noted that Islamist terrorist groups have shifted toward information operations and propaganda rather than large-scale attacks following setbacks to their capabilities. Since January, U.S. officials have only encountered a handful of individuals associated with terrorist groups at the border.
The assessment addressed state-level nuclear threats, with the intelligence community warning that Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan are developing advanced missile systems. The IC assessed that threats to the homeland will expand to more than 16,000 missiles by 2035 from the current 3,000. Regarding Iran specifically, the assessment stated that Operation Epic Fury has devastated Iran's missile production facilities and launch capabilities, though Iran had previously demonstrated technology that could support ICBM development before 2035.
In the cyber domain, the intelligence community identified China and Russia as presenting the most persistent and active threats to U.S. government networks, private sector infrastructure, and critical systems. The assessment highlighted artificial intelligence as an accelerating factor in cyber threats, noting that in August 2025, cyber actors used an AI tool to conduct data extortion operations against government, healthcare, and emergency services sectors.
On China, the assessment stated that Beijing aims to displace the U.S. as the global AI leader by 2030 and continues rapidly modernizing its military forces. The intelligence community assessed that China will likely seek conditions for eventual peaceful reunification with Taiwan, though it maintains the capability to seize Taiwan by force if necessary.
The assessment also noted that Russia retains the capability to selectively challenge U.S. interests globally and continues investing in advanced systems including counterspace weapons and hypersonic missiles designed to negate U.S. military advantage.
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This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI.