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Dislike of general opinion makes for tight elections
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Understanding voter behaviour requires moving beyond simplistic assumptions of individual rationality. Examining social networks, peer influence, and sensitivity to prevailing trends, significantly as amplified by opinion polls, offers a more nuanced and accurate framework for analyzing electoral outcomes. Applying statistical mechanics, specifically the Ising model provides a powerful tool for exploring these dynamics and understanding the emergence of phenomena like the "split society" phase.
Abstract:
In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events is the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such extensive collections of diverse individuals. Many sociophysics models reproduce the emergence of collective human behaviour with interacting agents, which respond to their environment according to simple rules modulated by random fluctuations. A paragon of this class is the Ising model, which, when interactions are strong, predicts that order can emerge from a chaotic initial state. In contrast with many elections, however, this model favours a substantial majority. Here, we introduce a new element to this classical theory, which accounts for the influence of opinion polls on the electorate. This brings about a new phase in which two groups divide their opinion equally. These political camps are spatially segregated, and the sharp boundary that separates them makes the system size-dependent, even in the limit of a large electorate. Election data show that, over the last 30 years, countries with more than a mill
This is Heliox: Where Evidence Meets Empathy
Independent, moderated, timely, deep, gentle, clinical, global, and community conversations about things that matter. Breathe Easy, we go deep and lightly surface the big ideas.
Thanks for listening today!
Four recurring narratives underlie every episode: boundary dissolution, adaptive complexity, embodied knowledge, and quantum-like uncertainty. These aren’t just philosophical musings but frameworks for understanding our modern world.Â
We hope you continue exploring our other podcasts, responding to the content, and checking out our related articles on the Heliox Podcast on Substack.Â
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About SCZoomers:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1632045180447285
https://x.com/SCZoomers
https://mstdn.ca/@SCZoomers
https://bsky.app/profile/safety.bsky.app
Spoken word, short and sweet, with rhythm and a catchy beat.
http://tinyurl.com/stonefolksongs
Curated, independent, moderated, timely, deep, gentle, evidenced-based, clinical & community information regarding COVID-19. Since 2017, it has focused on Covid since Feb 2020, with Multiple Stores per day, hence a large searchable base of stories to date. More than 4000 stories on COVID-19 alone. Hundreds of stories on Climate Change.
Zoomers of the Sunshine Coast is a news organization with the advantages of deeply rooted connections within our local community, combined with a provincial, national and global following and exposure. In written form, audio, and video, we provide evidence-based and referenced stories interspersed with curated commentary, satire and humour. We reference where our stories come from and who wrote, published, and even inspired them. Using a social media platform means we have a much higher degree of interaction with our readers than conventional media and provides a significant amplification effect, positively. We expect the same courtesy of other media referencing our stories.
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By by SC ZoomersSend us a text
Understanding voter behaviour requires moving beyond simplistic assumptions of individual rationality. Examining social networks, peer influence, and sensitivity to prevailing trends, significantly as amplified by opinion polls, offers a more nuanced and accurate framework for analyzing electoral outcomes. Applying statistical mechanics, specifically the Ising model provides a powerful tool for exploring these dynamics and understanding the emergence of phenomena like the "split society" phase.
Abstract:
In modern democracies, the outcome of elections and referendums is often remarkably tight. The repetition of these divisive events is the hallmark of a split society; to the physicist, however, it is an astonishing feat for such extensive collections of diverse individuals. Many sociophysics models reproduce the emergence of collective human behaviour with interacting agents, which respond to their environment according to simple rules modulated by random fluctuations. A paragon of this class is the Ising model, which, when interactions are strong, predicts that order can emerge from a chaotic initial state. In contrast with many elections, however, this model favours a substantial majority. Here, we introduce a new element to this classical theory, which accounts for the influence of opinion polls on the electorate. This brings about a new phase in which two groups divide their opinion equally. These political camps are spatially segregated, and the sharp boundary that separates them makes the system size-dependent, even in the limit of a large electorate. Election data show that, over the last 30 years, countries with more than a mill
This is Heliox: Where Evidence Meets Empathy
Independent, moderated, timely, deep, gentle, clinical, global, and community conversations about things that matter. Breathe Easy, we go deep and lightly surface the big ideas.
Thanks for listening today!
Four recurring narratives underlie every episode: boundary dissolution, adaptive complexity, embodied knowledge, and quantum-like uncertainty. These aren’t just philosophical musings but frameworks for understanding our modern world.Â
We hope you continue exploring our other podcasts, responding to the content, and checking out our related articles on the Heliox Podcast on Substack.Â
Support the show
About SCZoomers:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1632045180447285
https://x.com/SCZoomers
https://mstdn.ca/@SCZoomers
https://bsky.app/profile/safety.bsky.app
Spoken word, short and sweet, with rhythm and a catchy beat.
http://tinyurl.com/stonefolksongs
Curated, independent, moderated, timely, deep, gentle, evidenced-based, clinical & community information regarding COVID-19. Since 2017, it has focused on Covid since Feb 2020, with Multiple Stores per day, hence a large searchable base of stories to date. More than 4000 stories on COVID-19 alone. Hundreds of stories on Climate Change.
Zoomers of the Sunshine Coast is a news organization with the advantages of deeply rooted connections within our local community, combined with a provincial, national and global following and exposure. In written form, audio, and video, we provide evidence-based and referenced stories interspersed with curated commentary, satire and humour. We reference where our stories come from and who wrote, published, and even inspired them. Using a social media platform means we have a much higher degree of interaction with our readers than conventional media and provides a significant amplification effect, positively. We expect the same courtesy of other media referencing our stories.