Triggered by the rapid expansion of direct corporate lending over the past decade, competition across the leveraged credit landscape has intensified — contributing to weaker credit documentation, compressed spreads, and declining recovery rates.

In our latest white paper, Rapids of Private Credit: Opportunities in the Eddies of ABF, we explore how certain pockets of private asset-based finance — including U.S. second-lien residential mortgage lending, European SME asset-based lending, and U.S. mid-ticket equipment finance — can offer compelling risk-adjusted spreads supported by strong collateral and structural protections.

Read the white paper here: Rapids of Private Credit: Opportunities in the Eddies of ABF

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The sharp repricing of commercial real estate (CRE) across sectors and regions – triggered by steep interest rate hikes that began in 2022 – marks a structural reset leading to more differentiated outcomes for real estate investors.

In our latest white paper, we explore how this environment creates an ideal setting, in our view, for alpha generation for investors with nimble capital and structuring expertise, a global strategy with local sourcing capabilities, and a special situations orientation.

Read the white paper here: Real Estate Reset: Capitalizing on Record Dispersion
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Market fragmentation, lower valuations, and scarcer private institutional capital, in our view, make Europe an attractive market for flexible capital providers.

In our white paper, we examine these and other factors and make the case that Europe offers compelling investment opportunities even amidst heightened volatility around tariffs and the trend toward deglobalization.

Read the white paper here: Europe: Opportunity in Fragmentation — Davidson Kempner

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The environment of higher rates, inflation and deglobalization has resulted in elevated idiosyncratic risk and, in turn, an improved opportunity set for absolute return strategies.

In our white paper, we examine the performance of absolute return strategies across different rate environments. Since 1990, absolute return strategies generated on average 52% higher excess returns above the three-month U.S. Treasury bill during periods of higher interest rates. We believe the environment has become more supportive for absolute return and, in particular, event-driven strategies. 

Read the white paper here: Absolute Return: The Party Is Just Getting Started — Davidson Kempner

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In 2023, credit markets appeared to be on the verge of an “old-fashioned” distressed cycle due to higher base rates and elevated leverage. Leveraged loan defaults have risen since then, largely dominated by liability management exercises (LMEs). However, this has been far from uniform. There is significant dispersion in default rates, prices and recoveries across different parts of the corporate credit market.

In our white paper, we explore why this dynamic portends an extended distressed cycle with multiple overlapping waves and highlight the importance of selective credit underwriting in today’s environment.

Read the white paper here: The Tides of Credit: Opportunity in Dispersion — Davidson Kempner

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How do investors find opportunity in complexity?  Join Davidson Kempner’s Head of Research for in-depth analysis of global markets and investment considerations.  In this podcast, we go beyond the headlines and market chatter to share the insights and opportunities that are driving discourse at Davidson Kempner. 

Join us as we break down the numbers, analyze trends, and offer a behind-the-scenes look at how we navigate the complexities of today’s markets. 

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