Dollar Auction Show

Episode Summary

Alex and Shimon dive into a wide-ranging discussion covering U.S. foreign policy, Iran, China, Taiwan, military power, historical governance systems, nominal GDP, investing, AI infrastructure, and the future of markets. The episode blends geopolitical analysis with macroeconomics and long-term technological optimism.

00:08 — Opening Remarks

Alex and Shimon introduce the episode and discuss the rainy weather in Washington, D.C. before jumping directly into global geopolitics.

00:29 — Trump, China, and the Iran Conflict

Alex opens with criticism of Trump’s recent China trip and broader handling of the Iran situation. He argues the administration returned from China with little substance despite bringing major CEOs along.

Key topics:

• Whether the China trip produced meaningful outcomes
• Concerns about U.S. credibility regarding Iran
• Public threats versus actual military action
• The political pressure of U.S. midterms

02:33 — Iran Strategy and Credibility

Alex argues repeated military threats without follow-through weaken deterrence. He expresses concern that Iran’s leadership may not respond to traditional pressure because of ideological fanaticism.

Discussion points:

• The IRGC and religious extremism
• Why deterrence may not work traditionally
• Risks of appearing indecisive internationally
• Public opinion and war fatigue in the U.S.

07:05 — Shimon’s Counterargument on Iran

Shimon explains why his expectations were lower from the beginning and argues the media presents two completely distorted narratives.

He compares:

• CNN’s framing of Iran “winning”
• Fox News’ framing of total U.S. strategic success
• Why reality is likely somewhere in between

08:38 — Nuclear Weapons and Uranium Enrichment

Shimon gives a technical explanation of nuclear enrichment and argues that removing uranium alone does not solve the long-term problem.

Major ideas:

• Uranium enrichment mechanics
• Why centrifuges matter more than raw uranium
• Why nuclear capability can be rebuilt over time
• The difficulty of permanently eliminating nuclear programs

10:46 — “Boots on the Ground” Debate

Shimon argues the only true way to permanently stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons would require ground operations.

Topics include:

• Comparisons to Iraq and Saddam Hussein
• Political unwillingness for another major Middle East war
• Limitations of airstrikes and sanctions
• Why the world may eventually accept a nuclear Iran

12:23 — Economic Pressure vs Military Victory

The conversation shifts toward sanctions and economic leverage.

Shimon’s thesis:

• Economic pressure can weaken regimes significantly
• Growth incentives may discourage immediate nuclear escalation
• Ballistic missiles may become preferable to nuclear weapons
• Markets appear optimistic despite geopolitical tensions

16:07 — Is Iran Better or Worse Off?

Alex and Shimon disagree sharply on whether Iran emerged stronger or weaker after recent conflicts.

Alex argues:

• Iran survived a major confrontation
• Hardliners will become even more aggressive
• The regime now has greater justification for nuclear weapons

Shimon argues:

• Iran is strategically weaker than before
• Internal instability could eventually undermine the regime
• Historical parallels exist with the Soviet Union

20:36 — Ideology, Fanaticism, and Rationality

A philosophical debate emerges about whether ideological regimes behave rationally.

Key questions:

• Can religious fanatics still act strategically?
• Does not fearing death change geopolitical logic?
• Are Iran’s leaders motivated more by power or ideology?
• What happens if Iran eventually obtains nuclear weapons?

28:08 — China and Taiwan

The discussion pivots to China and U.S.-China relations.

Shimon argues:

• Trump’s China trip successfully de-escalated tensions
• Markets reacted positively afterward
• The U.S. mainly needs time to build domestic chip manufacturing
• Taiwan’s strategic value is deeply tied to semiconductors

Alex raises concerns about:

• Taiwan’s future
• China’s long-term ambitions
• America potentially conceding geopolitical ground

31:02 — Power, War, and Human Nature

The hosts discuss whether conflict is an unavoidable part of civilization.

Themes include:

• Raw power throughout history
• Male competition and evolutionary psychology
• Warfare as a mechanism for societal order
• Alpha hierarchies in nature and human civilization

34:12 — Kings, Castles, and the Ottoman Empire

A historical tangent explores governance systems.

Topics:

• Why hierarchical systems emerge
• Medieval castle alliances
• The origin of kingship
• The Ottoman succession system where brothers fought to the death for the throne

38:22 — Nominal GDP Explained

Shimon introduces a macroeconomic concept that fascinated him: nominal GDP growth.

Discussion highlights:

• Difference between nominal GDP and real GDP
• Inflation versus productivity
• Why nominal GDP growth has remained surprisingly stable
• The relationship between money supply and economic growth

41:37 — Investing, Retirement, and Market Growth

The hosts connect nominal GDP growth to investing.

Ideas discussed:

• Why markets naturally trend upward over time
• The logic behind 4% retirement withdrawal rules
• Why innovative companies dramatically outperform averages
• The dominance of technology companies in modern market growth

46:42 — Are Markets Overvalued?

Shimon pushes back against bearish market narratives.

Topics include:

• NASDAQ valuations
• Earnings growth versus price growth
• AI companies and infrastructure expansion
• Why major tech companies may justify high valuations

47:32 — SpaceX, AI, and the Future Economy

The episode closes with optimism around technological progress.

Final themes:

• Space commercialization
• Mars and future planetary economies
• AI infrastructure and data centers in space
• Why technological innovation could continue driving exponential economic growth

• Alex worries the U.S. risks appearing weak through inconsistent foreign policy signaling.
• Shimon believes geopolitical outcomes are rarely ideal and should be judged comparatively, not absolutely.
• Both agree technological innovation is accelerating rapidly and may fundamentally reshape markets and civilization.
• The hosts remain highly optimistic about AI, semiconductors, and space technology despite geopolitical instability.

• Iran conflict and nuclear strategy
• Trump’s China visit
• Taiwan and semiconductor geopolitics
• Military deterrence
• Economic sanctions
• Nominal GDP
• Stock market valuations
• AI and infrastructure
• Space economy and SpaceX
• Historical governance systems
  
  Notable Quotes

“You can do that two or three times and be believable. When you do it six or seven times, you lose all credibility.” — Alex

"The only way to remove the threat of a nuclear weapon from Iran is with boots on the ground.” — Shimon

"International geopolitics is always bad choices.” — Shimon

“Raw power has always been the controlling boundary of humanity.” — Alex“

“Objectively, the stock market goes up over time.” — Shimon

Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/4zv6syfc
Hardcorefinanceshow.com

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@ShimonLazarov

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Join hosts @ShimonLazarov and Alex @MrEBITDA on the Dollar Auction Show as they dive into the first week of the Iran war. From U.S. military successes and AI-driven missile tech to Trump's bold demands for unconditional surrender, geopolitical shifts involving China and Russia, and the potential for Middle East peace. They also discuss market volatility, oil spikes, Bitcoin opportunities, private credit risks, and the jobs report revisions. Is this the path to lasting peace or escalating global tensions? Don't miss this optimistic yet realistic analysis!
Subscribe for weekly insights on geopolitics, markets, and tech. Like and comment your thoughts on the Iran conflict!

#IranWar #Geopolitics #Trump #AI #Bitcoin #StockMarket #middleeastpeace

Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/4zv6syfc
Hardcorefinanceshow.com

Follow us on Twitter
@MrEBITDA
@ShimonLazarov

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In this episode of the Dollar Auction Show, Shimon and Alex tackle the growing "Technology Doomer" narrative. While Shimon argues that massive productivity gains from AI physically cannot result in a worse economy, Alex warns of a 2-3 year "pain gap" where government paralysis leads to a 2008-style market collapse.

They also break down:

The AI Displacement Model: Comparing AI agents to "digital immigrants" and the Saudi/UAE economic model.

Duration Risk: Why Wall Street is confused and why Bitcoin/Software stocks are feeling the heat.

State of the Union: A deep dive into Trump’s political maneuvers, the "clown show" atmosphere, and the "Common Sense" divide.

The Detroit-ification of NYC: Why Zohran Mamdani’s policies might be fueling a mass exodus to Miami.

Timestamps
00:00 – Testing the new intro feature

01:19 – Addressing the "Technology Doomer" piece

02:49 – Defining an Economy: Why productivity should prevent collapse

03:40 – Parallels to 2008: Will the Fed buy your mortgage (again)?

06:11 – Alex’s "Pain Gap" thesis: Why the short run will be brutal

11:17 – Industry Spotlight: AI hacking the Mexican government & cybersecurity displacement

15:43 – The UAE Mental Model: AI agents as digital immigrants

20:55 – The K-Shaped Recovery: Why you must hold assets to survive

31:05 – Finance 101: What is Duration Risk and why does it kill growth?

37:27 – State of the Union: Trump, Pelosi, and "Common Sense" politics

44:59 – Shimon’s "Beer & ID" solution to voter integrity

46:27 – NYC vs. Reality: Free daycare for illegal immigrants & emergency funds

53:33 – Historical context: Why Hollywood moved to LA (and why Miami is next)

55:10 – Final thoughts

Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/4zv6syfc
Hardcorefinanceshow.com

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In this Bear Market Edition of the Dollar Auction Show, Shimon Lazarov and Alex (@MrEBITDA) dive deep into the current crypto winter sentiment after meeting Wall Street and hedge fund pros.

Shimon presents a compelling chart overlay showing Bitcoin behaving like ~1.2–1.3× leveraged Nasdaq (QLD) since 2018 — outperforming in bulls, underperforming in bears, and currently detached to the downside. He argues tech (and therefore Bitcoin) won't see a 2022-style multi-year breakdown thanks to the long-term trend line, AI/robotics productivity tailwinds, no aggressive Fed rate hikes under the new chair, and massive unlocked GDP potential.
They debate:

Will Nasdaq really break down from over-invested AI/data-center CapEx?
Is Bitcoin leading tech lower… or just more leveraged & sentiment-driven?
Power Law support, miner capitulation FUD, quantum/doomer narratives
AI models (Gemini vs. Grok vs. local edge), Apple’s strategy, robotics replacing housekeepers
Realistic 2026 price targets ($60k bottom? $150k by year-end?)
Why the last two cycles felt underwhelming and whether we’re in for a long grind

A candid, no-BS conversation blending macro, technicals, techno-optimism and bear-market psychology.
Timestamps below ↓
00:00 Intro & current market vibes after New York conference
00:24 Wall Street / hedge fund sentiment: 50/50 split, Bitcoin tracks tech optimism
01:32 Tech CapEx bubble fears vs. Apple sitting it out
03:58 Technical difficulties & plan to overlay charts later
06:04 Core thesis – Bitcoin as 1.2–1.3× leveraged Nasdaq (QLD overlay since 2018)
07:23 Bitcoin leads tops/bottoms, ETF mini-bull, post-Trump pump & Liberation Day dump
08:23 Current performance: QLD +533% vs Bitcoin +383% since 2018
08:56 Long-term QLD trend line – no 2022-style multi-year bear likely
10:06 Fed policy, new chair, interest rates & why no big breakdown expected
10:37 Cathie Wood / AI breakthroughs, robotics unlocking hidden GDP
11:28 AI models (Grok & Gemini) both target ~$150k BTC by end of 2026
12:15 Alex reaction: more bearish near-term, uncertain forces in AI/energy/geopolitics
14:38 AI doomerism & job displacement counter-arguments (robots = low-wage labor)
17:06 Market uncertainty, pro-crypto admin yet underwhelming price action, FUD levels rising
20:20 “Buy the rumor, sell the news” after favorable regulation & politics
21:24 Commoditization of foundation models vs. value in robotics & applications
22:41 Apple’s local-model strategy – smart or behind the curve?
25:28 Gemini surprise performance vs. Grok, competing AI paradigms
27:35 Geopolitical risks, Fed chair “market trial”, Arthur Hayes contrarian view
30:07 Global debt, productivity, low real rates → bullish for risk assets long-term
30:54 Recycled FUD dice: quantum, miners to AI, retail boredom → same old narratives
34:19 No retail, institutional shakeout, potential long grind ahead
35:22 Power Law support bands – 50–66k floor never broken historically
37:23 Shimon’s 2026 base case: 60s for months → strong H2 recovery → $150k
39:03 Nasdaq all-time highs eventually → Bitcoin follows
40:27 Bull-case global scenario: peace dividends + real AI GDP
42:53 Geopolitical war risks (Iran rumors) & market reaction
44:37 Liberation Day / tariffs – major missed upside for BTC & risk assets
44:54 Hash rate near ATH → miner capitulation narrative weak
46:11 Personal lessons: avoid leverage loans, keep cash, cap BTC allocation ~30–40%
49:17 Cash for peace of mind & opportunistic buying
49:58 Bear market “snake through the pipe” analogy
50:40 Bitcoin’s pure-sentiment nature vs. better technology & network effects
51:18 Internet analogy – 30+ years from invention to mass adoption
52:02 Closing: “Slog until then” – patience required

Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://ti

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In this "Special World Economic Forum Edition" of the Dollar Auction Show, Alex and Shimon take a deep dive into the seismic shifts currently reshaping the global order. We move beyond the headlines to analyze how the "Western global elite" at Davos are losing their grip on power as a new era of geopolitics emerges.

This episode explores the "Trump Doctrine"—a radical departure from traditional U.S. foreign policy. Instead of endless regime changes and "forever wars," we discuss a strategy focused on "monetizing power" and leveraging economic pressure to force alignment with U.S. interests. From the strategic necessity of Greenland to the reality of "Space Wars," we unpack the high-stakes moves that the mainstream media is largely ignoring.

Key Discussion Points:
* The Decline of the WEF: Why the World Economic Forum is transitioning from an exclusive "elite club" to a more mainstream "paid-to-play" conference, and what this means for global influence.
* The Trump Doctrine vs. Traditional Diplomacy: Alex explains the "Play Action Pass" strategy—how faking or acting on early threats (like tariffs on allies) builds the credibility needed for major geopolitical negotiations.
* Funding "European Early Retirement": A provocative look at NATO funding. Shimon argues that U.S. defense spending has effectively subsidized Europe's expansive welfare states and pensions, and why that era is coming to an end.
* Energy Independence as a Game Changer: How American fracking and energy self-sufficiency have removed the primary motivation for Middle Eastern interventions, allowing the U.S. to take a harder line with regimes like Maduro's in Venezuela.
* Greenland and the First "Space War": Why Greenland is critical for future military infrastructure, data centers, and controlling the "space war" frontier, especially in light of how Starlink changed the landscape of the Ukraine conflict.
* Onshoring Critical Manufacturing: The strategic danger of outsourcing essentials (like medical PPE and IV bags) to adversaries like China, and why tariffs are being used as a tool to bring production back home.

Join the Conversation: Is the era of global cooperation through organizations like the WEF truly over? Is "monetizing power" a sustainable path for the U.S., or does it risk alienating vital allies? Let us know your thoughts on the new world realignment in the comments below!

Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/4zv6syfc
Hardcorefinanceshow.com

Follow us on X:
@MrEBITDA
@ShimonLazarov

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Join hosts Shimon Lazarov and Alex Chizhik (@MrEBITDA) for a no-holds-barred dive into the world's hottest topics! From the media blackout in Iran's potential revolution to Trump's geopolitical chess moves, Bitcoin's volatile flatline, and the explosive productivity gains from AI— this episode unpacks it all with sharp analysis, humor, and unfiltered insights.

In this episode:

• Bitcoin's "boring" year: Flat gains, underperforming bonds, but packed with volatility and alpha tips.
• Iran's crisis: Regime scenarios, nuclear threats, and why a partial change could be disastrous.
• Global realignments: Venezuela as a power play, Ukraine stalemate, Greenland grabs, and 80-year cycles.
• Economic optimism: AI-driven productivity, job disruptions, micro-startups, and bold policies like inflating Bitcoin to offset debt.

Whether you're into finance, foreign policy, or futuristic tech, this is your go-to for thought-provoking discussions that cut through the noise.

Timestamps:

• 00:01 - Introduction and Personal Updates
• 00:33 - Bitcoin Performance Debate
• 02:15 - Iran Crisis and Scenarios
• 09:46 - Trump's Foreign Policy and Venezuela
• 11:13 - Broader Geopolitical Implications
• 17:41 - Benefit of Doubt for Trump and Past Conflicts
• 22:35 - European Weakness and Greenland Acquisition
• 24:00 - Global Realignments and Cycles
• 25:47 - Markets and AI Productivity
• 30:14 - Job Disruption and Future Economy
• 33:49 - Economic Policies and Inflation Strategies
• 40:05 - US Economic Power and Closing Thoughts

If you enjoyed this, smash that LIKE button, SUBSCRIBE for more episodes, and drop a comment with your take on Iran's future or AI's job impact! Follow us on X: 
@ShimonLazarov and 
@MrEBITDA.

#Geopolitics #IranRevolution #Bitcoin #AI #TrumpForeignPolicy #Economics #Podcast #DollarAuctionShow

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In this episode of The Dollar Auction Show, Shimon and Alex talk through why Bitcoin is lagging despite risk assets ripping, and then pivot hard into geopolitics: Iran’s internal unrest, Venezuela’s Maduro capture, and what these events signal about deterrence, U.S. power projection, and the media ecosystem.

They explore a “power law” framing for Bitcoin’s long-term adoption, argue mainstream media has become incentive-driven content creation, and debate realpolitik vs “procedure-first” foreign policy. The conversation ties together oil flows, Russia/Ukraine funding pressure, China/Taiwan deterrence, and why unconventional leverage (like blockades and tariffs) can move outcomes faster than traditional diplomacy.


0:07 Intro + markets check
0:27 Bitcoin lagging stocks/gold/silver
2:17 Power law optimism for Bitcoin adoption
5:37 Pivot: politics, social strife, “post-truth” era
6:47 Iran background + why the uprising matters
11:57 Media incentives: news as “content for the base”
15:07 U.S. foreign policy split: status quo vs pressure
16:37 Venezuela: “surgical” action + results vs process
23:07 Rules of war + proportionality logic
24:07 Escalation dominance + Iran air defense narrative
27:07 X/Twitter, Grok, and Wikipedia bias claims
33:07 Trump as consequential actor (even if abrasive)
34:07 Oil + geopolitics ripple effects (Russia/China)
42:27 Tariffs as leverage, not just economics
44:07 Critique of economists/models; “common sense” lens
47:47 Outlook: 2026 optimism, volatility caveats



Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/4zv6syfc
Hardcorefinanceshow.com

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After an eight-month hiatus, Shimon and Alex return to The Dollar Auction Show with their sharpest, most wide-ranging conversation yet. What begins as a simple question—“Why is the Bitcoin sentiment so bearish when the price is doing fine?”—unfolds into a two-hour exploration of markets, psychology, technology, geopolitics, AI, and humanity’s future.

Together they dive deep into:

• Why Bitcoin volatility is shrinking—and why that’s actually bullish
  
  
• The role of institutions, ETFs, and political cycles in shaping the next decade
  
  
• How index investors and concentrated-bet traders see the world differently
  
  
• Whether the AI boom is a bubble or a genuine civilizational shift
  
  
• What happens when robotics, energy supply, and AI compute collide
  
  
• Why generational cycles, the “fourth turning,” and human psychology matter
  
  
• The paradoxical optimism of living through the most transformative era in history
  
  

1. Introduction — Eight Months Later
Catching up
Why Bitcoin sentiment feels off despite strong fundamentals
Bear market jokes and “when Bitcoin dips, it dips”

2. Market Volatility, Macro Jitters & Investor Psychology
Comparing today’s volatility to prior cycles
Why investors are more nervous than the data suggests
Tariffs, Fed tension, and the jittery political backdrop
The irony of “digital asset treasury companies” replicating 2017’s ICO mania

3. Institutional Adoption & the Slow Grind of Legitimization
Major banks warming up to Bitcoin
ETFs, allocations, custodians, and bonds
Why big money moves slowly but relentlessly
How sideways price action transfers coins from speculators to pension funds

4. Bitcoin’s Long-Term Trajectory
Is Bitcoin still the fastest horse?
Why upside shrinks as adoption grows
Compounding vs. risk-taking as investing styles
The trendline, technical analysis, and market-moving whales
Can a 20–40% yearly growth Bitcoin still change your life?

5. The AI Boom: Bubble or Transformation?
Is Nvidia overvalued?
What happens if OpenAI becomes the Enron of AI?
Why data centers don’t “go to zero”
AI agents disrupting SaaS, legal work, customer support, and more
The massive, overlooked link between energy generation and AI compute
Why “overbuilding” might not be real

6. Robotics, Chips, and the Second Industrial Revolution
Chips for compute → chips for robots
Cities blocking safer autonomous fleets
Why AI + robotics = the true economic revolution
The coming overcapacity vs. demand explosion in energy

7. Civilizational Shifts, Spirituality, and the Fourth Turning
Generational cycles
Could 9/11 have been the real start of the fourth turning?
Human psychology, Fibonacci, TA, and why markets obey “natural laws”
Why we’re lucky to live through the Internet → smartphone → AI → robotics transition in one lifetime

8. Closing Thoughts — Gratitude for a Wild Era
Living through history
Managing fear vs. embracing transformation
Looking ahead to Bitcoin’s and AI’s next leap
Why optimism is the only way through massive change


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Summary

In this episode, Alex and Shimon discuss Bitcoin's power law and its implications for the future of the cryptocurrency. They explain the concept of power law and how it differs from previous models of Bitcoin's price. They also draw parallels between power law in nature and Bitcoin's price corridor. The hosts highlight the significance of the power law model and its rigorous analysis compared to previous models. They conclude by exploring the potential of AI and robotics, showcasing a demo of a robot interacting with Chad GPT-4. The conversation covers various topics related to AI, including the power of AI chips, the potential increase in energy demand, the importance of open-source AI, and the need for trust and transparency in AI development. The intersection of crypto, AI, and open source is also discussed, highlighting the role of cryptographic proof and on-chain data. The dangers of concentrated power in AI and the importance of societal input in shaping AI values are explored. The hosts express disappointment with a podcast interview style that lacks depth and critical questioning.


Takeaways

* Bitcoin's price follows a power law, which is a mathematical model that predicts a straight line on a log-log scale graph.

* The power law model provides a more rigorous and accurate analysis of Bitcoin's price compared to previous models.

* Power law is a common phenomenon in nature, seen in the relationship between body mass and metabolic rate in animals.

* The power law model suggests that Bitcoin's price will continue to grow over time, with a predicted floor price and a slower rate of growth in the future. AI chips are becoming increasingly powerful and are driving advancements in AI technology.

* The use of AI will likely lead to an increase in energy demand, which could lower the cost of energy and benefit industries like Bitcoin mining.

* Open-source AI allows for innovation and collaboration, ensuring that AI development is not controlled by a single company or entity.

* The intersection of crypto, AI, and open source has the potential to create more transparent and trustworthy AI systems.

* Concentrated power in AI development poses risks, and it is important to involve society in shaping AI values and decision-making.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Bitcoin's Power Law

02:45 Understanding Power Law and Bitcoin's Price

07:59 Power Law in Nature and Bitcoin's Price Corridor

13:00 Implications of Power Law for Bitcoin's Future

22:05 Predictions and Investment Potential

22:56 Exploring AI and Robotics

26:47 Reflection on Performance

27:11 The Power of AI Chips

27:40 Nvidia's AI Chip Innovations

28:29 AI at the Chip Level

29:18 Increased Energy Demand

30:17 Energy Consumption and Efficiency

31:04 The Excitement of Using More Energy

31:23 Open Source AI and Innovation

32:19 Genetic Algorithms and Open Source AI

37:39 The Intersection of Crypto, AI, and Open Source

42:32 The Importance of Open Source AI and Trust

43:28 The Need for Cryptographic Proof and On-Chain Data

45:47 The Dangers of Concentrated Power in AI

46:16 The Role of Society in Shaping AI Values

47:58 Disappointment with Interviewing Style

50:09 The Dollar Auction Show and Strong Opinions

Apple Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/36u8fmbr
Spotify Podcast: https://tinyurl.com/4zv6syfc
Hardcorefinanceshow.com

Follow us on Twitter
@MrEBITDA
@ShimonLazarov

Support the show

Support the show