Dollar Collapse

It's rare for the world to worry about Italy. But Sunday's referendum has the global Establishment on the edge of its seat. The worst case scenario -- from the Establishment point of view -- is the vote going against the government, causing the Prime Minister to resign and be replaced by an anti-euro, anti-EU party that throws sends Italian banks into crisis and the European economy into chaos.

The presidential campaign is just about over, which means the US will soon start reversing out the surprisingly good numbers it has reported lately. Gold is still looking for a bottom and could find one before year-end. And the groundwork is being laid for the next generation of experimental monetary and fiscal policies, which makes 2017 an epic year for financial instability.

Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, the Italian banks...it's getting ugly across the pond and the worst is yet to come. Here's a brief explanation of why that's so, including derivatives, ridiculous capital rules, dumb lending practices and, of course, negative interest rates. If you're looking for short sale candidates, Europe's banks are a great place to start.

Last week the Fed found out what will happen if it raises rates: The global financial markets will melt down. So this morning a new member of the central bank's seemingly endless army of talking heads said some soothing words, which stabilized the US stock prices. Now the question is when the Fed will finally capitulate, abandon the rate hike threats and join the global inflationary party. After last week, that's likely to come soon. Then it's off to the races for real assets. Get that gold and silver now, before it's too late.

It's becoming clear to a growing number of people that the world's central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, have no idea what they're doing. Yet they keep on making threats, predictions and other nonsensical statements, most of which are quickly exposed as such. Is this the end off their credibility -- and the beginning of gold's new bull market?

Normally, when one asset class is expensive others are cheap, making it reasonably easy to use historical relationships to decide where to invest. That's not the case today. Every major asset class, including stocks, bonds and even precious metals, are looking at best temporarily overbought by past standards, and at worst (in the case of stocks and bonds), wildly overvalued. Here's a discussion with some tentative advice.

Terrorists and other crazies have figured out that they don't need guns. Trucks, axes and machetes will do just fine. Meanwhile, political parties around the world are imploding or otherwise descending into chaos. Welcome to the new normal, where excessive debt makes the old ways of muddling through impossible. Advice on how to invest for the inevitable bust will follow shortly.

Brexit looked like the end of the world -- until people figured out that central banks would have to ease in response. Then markets turned positively jubilant with US stocks, for example, hitting record highs. The result: A world of mounting debts, weekly terrorist attacks and even military coup attempts alongside financial assets priced for perfection. Wonder which side is right?

Italian banks are collapsing, with Germany's Deutsche Bank not far behind. Anti-euro parties now lead polling in France and Italy. Interest rates around the world are plunging. Add it all up and it's clear that the developed world is heading into a very tough patch with results ranging from slower growth all the way out to global financial crisis. Only gold is immune to what's coming.

Expect the UK to drop out of the headlines as it grapples with the nuts and bolts of choosing new leaders and untangling itself from the EU. The big news going forward will be the trend Brexit started, as other European countries consider their own variations on the "leave" theme -- with all that that implies for interest rates, bank stocks and general financial instability. Fascinating and terrifying year ahead.