Stocks rebounded after a volatile week, with the S&P up 1.75% following a sharp sell-off. Q3 earnings kicked off strongly led by big banks, while communication services and real estate led sector gains amid churning below the surface.
Economic indicators and Fed signals point to slowing growth: the Beige Book and ISM services show weakness, the labor market has cooled, and Fed remarks and minutes suggest increased uncertainty about the path for rates — raising odds of an October cut. Watch Q3 earnings for signs around deregulation, AI capex, consumer health, and power costs.
Geopolitical and policy risks have re-emerged with U.S.-China tensions, tariffs and rare earth measures, and a continuing government shutdown. Precious metals have surged, and the recommended portfolio stance favors high-quality Treasuries and caution on credit and high-yield exposure.