Don Paul Bits o' Blather on Weather, Climate, & Science

My recollections of the "Snovember" lake effect event, an incredibly paralyzing  storm, impacting the southern half of Buffalo and its eastern and southern suburbs. Up to 7 feet of snow fell to the south, with many thousands stranded on area highways for long periods. Here is what went into the forecasting of this ultimate 'whopper', and how it actually came to be a well-forecast event.

3 consecutive record warm days in Western New York and much of the northeast will fade away by midweek as cooler air arrives. Cooler does not = Colder, however. How is November likely to turn out, and does our strong La Nina mean we will be milder all the time? We look ahead. PLEASE SHARE, thanks!

Overall, most polls performed very poorly again, even after polling companies (they are not owned by "the media") stated they were making corrective compensations for errors committed in 2016. Is political polling more difficult than weather forecasting and, if so, why might that be? I'm not sure I have THE answer, but I do have some ideas on the comparison. PLEASE SHARE, thanks!

In work done at Penn State, there are hopeful indications that judicious use of antiseptic mouthwashes and rinses may produce a significant lessening of COVID transmission from the mouth and nasopharyngeal cavity, all readily available over the counter products many of us are already using. NONE of the Penn State findings are intended to imply this would lessen the necessity for wearing masks in the least. PLEASE SHARE

We may be in the midst of an electoral debacle, but COVID rages on, unimpeded by the election--for now. It turns out weather affects human behavior, which can have a drastic impact on contagion one good way or, if bad choices are made, in a very bad way. HOWEVER, Earlier hopes that warm weather would help kill the virus itself have turned out to be a false lead.

It's understandable why, in the midst of the disastrous pandemic, a warming climate psychologically may take a back seat in many minds. But the threats of ongoing and increasing warming are not going away, and the world faces an enormous challenge. Here is the latest on greenhouse gases.

A general forecast and extended outlook locally in Western New York and for the eastern US, with a notable moderating trend developing by Wednesday...and LASTING. Also, a quick look at national Election Day weather conditions. PLEASE SHARE.

Vanderbilt's elite School of Medicine has done a definitive study on the rate of hospitalizations and the wearing of masks. How can there still be so much mass ignorance and prejudice against science in this grave-and-quickly-worsening pandemic? The evidence is a large minority of our population is behaving illogically and dangerously, following scientifically illiterate leadership, mass disinformation on a cable channel as well as in social media. Epidemiologists say our bellweather now is Europe, where people started letting their guards down after months of having flattened the curve. Now, much of Europe have again seen huge spikes in infection, hospitalization, and mortality.

Strengthened Hurricane Zeta, now at 100mph as of 1pm CDT, makes landfall in SE Louisiana late Wed afternoon, producing storm surge, wind, and some flooding damage. Damaging winds may reach as far NE as northern GA late Wed night. Zeta remnant curl off toward the Atlantic coast, combining with a nontropical cold storm system, bring lots of rain, and some snow on the hills.

The remnant low from Hurricane Zeta (likely to make landfall later Wednesday night near SE Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane) combining with a non-tropical low which has brought heavy, blowing snow to Colorado and New Mexico will send a surge of moisture to the middle Atlantic and northeast states. By late Thursday night, enough cold air may trail this developing storm to produce an elevation-driven widespread accumulating slushy snowfall. For NYC and Boston, the storm will bring strong winds, rain, and possible coastal flooding.