Unfiltered Profit

Don’t Spend That Refund Yet: Why 2025 Won’t Be a Windfall


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Note: After recording this episode, the IRS announced that personal tax return e-filing will officially open on January 26 (not mid-February as discussed in the episode).

Are you counting on a bigger tax refund in 2026—and already mentally spending it?

If you’re a business owner or high earner, this might be the exact mindset setting you up for frustration this tax season.

The headlines are loud: “Bigger refunds are coming!” But what they’re not telling you is that most of that hype doesn’t apply to business owners—and a big refund isn’t actually a win anyway. In this episode of Unfiltered Profit, we cut through the noise, explain what’s really driving the refund rumors, and walk you through what you should be focusing on instead so you’re not disappointed (or cash-strapped) later.


BY THE TIME YOU FINISH LISTENING, YOU’LL DISCOVER:

  • Why the “big refund” headlines are more political than practical


  • Who is actually likely to see an increase—and who probably won’t


  • Why filing early doesn’t mean getting your money faster (and can backfire)


  • How business owners should be thinking about refunds, cash flow, and estimated payments instead


At the end of the day, a refund isn’t free money—it’s just your money coming back after the IRS held onto it interest-free. This episode will help you reset expectations, avoid blaming the wrong people, and take control of what actually matters in your tax strategy this year.



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Unfiltered ProfitBy Caitlynn Eldridge and Seanna Asper