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* 00:00:00 - Introduction

* 00:02:10 - Introducing Project Glasswing

* 00:03:39 - Don’t Worry About the Government

* 00:05:15 - Cybersecurity Capabilities In The Model Card (Section 3)

* 00:06:56 - Cyber Capability Tests In The Model Card

* 00:08:54 - The Proof Is In The Patching

* 00:11:26 - Go For Read Team

* 00:15:16 - Is This New?

* 00:18:12 - Thanks For The Memories

* 00:23:07 - How Good Is Mythos At This?

* 00:26:20 - What Might Have Been

* 00:29:02 - The Chaos Option

* 00:32:09 - The Can’t Happen That Happened

* 00:33:15 - When You Go Looking For Specific, And You Are Told Exactly Where and How To Look For It, Your Chances Of Finding It Are Very Good

* 00:38:57 - Blatant Denials Are The Best Kind

* 00:42:56 - Anything You Can Do I Can Do Cheaper

* 00:45:15 - Theft Of Mythos Would Be A Big Deal

* 00:45:39 - No One Could Have Predicted This

* 00:46:52 - The Revolution Will Not Be Televised

* 00:47:50 - The Intelligence Will Not Be Televised

* 00:50:09 - Will We Be Doing This For A While?

* 00:52:30 - What If OpenAI Gets a Similar Model?

* 00:53:53 - Use It Or Lose It

* 00:54:28 - Solve For The Equilibrium

* 00:57:49 - Patriots and Tyrants

* 01:00:19 - Trust The Mythos

* 01:01:58 - Wide Scale Ability To Exploit Software Favors Strongest Projects

* 01:06:45 - Looking Back at GPT-2

* 01:08:10 - Limitless Demand For Compute

* 01:09:53 - Oh, Also, If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/claude-mythos-2-cybersecurity-and?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00:00 - Introduction

* 00:03:39 - Mundane Alignment Is Excellent

* 00:05:26 - Would This Process Be Sufficient To Find A Dangerous Model?

* 00:06:58 - Introductory Warning About Superficial Mundane Alignment

* 00:15:45 - Model Training (1.1)

* 00:15:57 - Release Decision Process (1.2)

* 00:18:24 - RSP Evaluations (2.1 and 2.2)

* 00:23:26 - Autonomy Evaluations (2.3)

* 00:27:37 - The Alignment Risk Update Document

* 00:28:19 - The Threat Model

* 00:30:52 - Misalignment As Failure Mode

* 00:33:20 - Wouldn’t You Know?

* 00:35:29 - Don’t Encourage Your Model

* 00:37:00 - Beware Goodhart’s Law

* 00:39:08 - Beware The Most Forbidden Technique (5.2.3)

* 00:43:42 - Asking The Right Questions

* 00:45:11 - Model Organism Tests

* 00:47:13 - Model Weight Security (Risk Report 5.5.2.1)

* 00:47:41 - Reward Hacking (Back to The Model Card)

* 00:48:07 - Remote Drop-In Worker Coming Soon

* 00:51:04 - External Testing (2.3.7)

* 00:51:39 - Cyber Insecurity General Principle Interlude

* 00:52:52 - Alignment (4)

* 00:58:41 - Risk In The Room

* 01:00:04 - Mythos Meant Well

* 01:02:32 - Risk Not In The Room

* 01:05:38 - Alignment Testing Overview

* 01:09:09 - Internal Deployment Testing Process

* 01:11:47 - Reports From Pilot Use (4.2.1)

* 01:12:24 - Reports From Automated Testing (4.2)

* 01:15:35 - Other External Testing

* 01:16:17 - Just The Facts, Sir

* 01:19:20 - Refusing Safety Research

* 01:20:27 - Claude Favoritism

* 01:21:56 - Ruling Out Encoded Thinking (4.4.1)

* 01:25:51 - Sandbagging (4.4.2)

* 01:28:49 - Capability for Evasion of Safeguards (4.4.3)

* 01:31:20 - Pick A Random Number (4.4.3.4)

* 01:34:23 - White Box Analysis (4.5)

* 01:39:38 - Model Welfare (5)

* 01:40:43 - Key Model Welfare Findings (5.1.2)

* 01:52:05 - Is Mythos Okay?

* 01:54:48 - Self-Play

* 01:56:49 - A Few Fun Facts

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/claude-mythos-the-system-card?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00:00 - Introduction

* 00:02:21 - Table of Contents

* 00:05:41 - Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

* 00:06:11 - Language Models Don’t Offer Mundane Utility

* 00:06:34 - Huh, Upgrades

* 00:08:09 - On Your Marks

* 00:11:03 - Meta Problems

* 00:11:17 - Fun With Media Generation

* 00:13:11 - A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer

* 00:13:19 - You Drive Me Crazy

* 00:26:27 - Unprompted Attention

* 00:27:05 - They Took Our Jobs

* 00:38:39 - They Took Our Job Market

* 00:40:43 - Get Involved

* 00:42:52 - In Other AI News

* 00:43:30 - Search Your Feelings You Know It To Be True

* 00:51:50 - Actors And Scribes

* 00:54:53 - Show Me the Money

* 01:00:32 - Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Trouble

* 01:00:50 - Quiet Speculations

* 01:01:05 - Quickly, There’s No Time

* 01:05:07 - More Time Would Be Better

* 01:06:02 - Greetings From The Department of War

* 01:07:16 - The Quest for Sane Regulations

* 01:09:01 - Chip City

* 01:10:27 - Political Violence Is Completely and Always Unacceptable

* 01:11:00 - The Week in Audio

* 01:13:34 - Rhetorical Innovation

* 01:17:43 - People Really Hate AI

* 01:20:43 - Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

* 01:25:05 - Messages From Janusworld

* 01:28:17 - People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone

* 01:29:37 - The Lighter Side

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/ai-163-mythos-quest?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00 - Introduction

* 00:50 - Table of Contents

* 01:43 - Part 1: OpenAI: The Histories

* 03:06 - The Battle of the Board

* 04:08 - Thanks For The Memos

* 04:30 - I Am What I Am

* 05:04 - That’s Not What I Said

* 05:19 - There Will Be No Investigation

* 06:22 - Musk Versus Altman

* 07:38 - Amodei Versus Altman

* 09:33 - Sydney Versus Altman

* 10:31 - Highest Bidder Versus Altman

* 12:58 - Risky Business

* 15:46 - Superalignment Was Always Fake

* 18:28 - This Is Fine

* 19:22 - Liar Liar Master Persuader

* 23:15 - This In Particular Is Securities Fraud

* 25:00 - Regulation Two Step

* 26:26 - Easy Mode

* 29:06 - The Right Amount of Alignment Research Is Not Zero

* 31:10 - OpenAI Proposes Policy

* 43:15 - RIP TBPN

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/openai-16-a-history-and-a-proposal?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00 - Introduction

* 00:45 - New Levels Of Saying Quiet Part Out Loud Even For This Guy

* 02:09 - Whose Side Are You On

* 03:01 - Your Intervention Only Partly Solves The Problem So We Are Against It

* 04:06 - More Dakka

* 05:18 - Abundance

* 06:20 - Changes In Rent Are Largely About Changes In Supply

* 07:52 - Austin

* 09:50 - America

* 12:07 - Minnesota

* 13:28 - Debunking Obvious Nonsense About Monopolistic Practices

* 23:26 - Age Of The Median Homebuyer

* 27:31 - Property Taxes Improve Allocation Efficiency

* 30:43 - More Of Old People Inefficiently And Systematically Stealing From Young People

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/housing-roundup-13-more-dakka?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00:00 - Introduction

* 00:00:40 - How RSP v3.0 Works

* 00:33:42 - You Came Here For An Argument

* 00:37:56 - The Problem Remains Unsolved

* 00:41:53 - Wow That Thing We Did Was Pretty Risky, Huh?

* 00:42:55 - Risk Report Number 1

* 00:44:57 - Listen All Y’all It’s Sabotage

* 00:58:19 - Looking Forward

* 01:00:07 - Claude Gov

* 01:00:26 - What Is A Strong Argument?

* 01:01:42 - Recursive Self-Improvement

* 01:04:28 - Non-Novel Chemical and Biological Weapons

* 01:06:55 - Novel Chemical and Biological Weapons

* 01:07:47 - Cross-Cutting Content (Section 6)

* 01:11:14 - Risk Report Report

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/anthropic-responsible-scaling-policy-46a?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00:00 - Introduction

* 00:01:36 - Table of Contents

* 00:05:24 - Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

* 00:06:46 - Heads In The Sand

* 00:10:32 - Huh, Upgrades

* 00:11:27 - Mythos

* 00:15:13 - What’s In A Name

* 00:17:59 - On Your Marks

* 00:19:17 - Choose Your Fighter

* 00:20:00 - Get My Agent On The Line

* 00:20:39 - Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

* 00:28:02 - Cyber Lack Of Security

* 00:32:45 - Fun With Media Generation

* 00:33:27 - A Young Lady’s Illustrated Primer

* 00:34:33 - They Took Our Jobs

* 00:41:48 - After They Take Our Jobs

* 00:43:18 - Gell-Mann Amnesia

* 00:45:31 - Get Involved

* 00:47:30 - In Other AI News

* 00:50:49 - Show Me the Money

* 00:55:28 - Quiet Speculations

* 00:56:42 - Explaining Persistent Model Parity

* 01:00:38 - Take a Moment

* 01:06:12 - OpenAI: The Histories

* 01:11:33 - The Department of AI War

* 01:18:35 - Department of AI Solidarity

* 01:19:41 - Writing For The AIs

* 01:22:43 - Quickly, There’s No Time

* 01:22:46 - The Quest for Sane Regulations

* 01:24:04 - Chip City

* 01:25:53 - You Received The Federal Framework

* 01:26:39 - The Week in Audio

* 01:30:01 - Rhetorical Innovation

* 01:33:54 - I Am The Very Human Of A Frontier Language Model

* 01:44:22 - Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

* 01:47:45 - Aligning Fake Graphs Can Also Be Difficult

* 01:57:12 - The Lighter Side

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/ai-162-visions-of-mythos?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00 - Introduction

* 01:52 - Promises, Promises

* 03:19 - Anthropic Responsible Scaling Policy v3

* 03:41 - That Could Have Gone Better

* 04:49 - I’m Just Not Ready To Make a Commitment

* 08:50 - So Cold, So Alone

* 13:07 - I’m Sorry I Gave You That Impression

* 20:59 - Fool Me Twice

* 24:41 - In My Defense I Was Left Unsupervised

* 27:27 - Drake Thomas Finds The Missing Mood

* 30:12 - Things That Could Have Been Brought To My Attention Yesterday (1)

* 31:48 - Things That Could Have Been Brought To My Attention Yesterday (2)

* 37:54 - What We Have Here Is A Failure To Communicate

* 41:10 - You Should See The Other Guy

* 44:04 - I Was Only Kidding

* 45:01 - They Can’t Keep Getting Away With This

* 45:39 - Damn Your Sudden But Inevitable Betrayal

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/anthropic-responsible-scaling-policy?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00 - Introduction

* 03:55 - Babies Are Awesome

* 05:20 - People Are Worried About AI Killing Everyone

* 06:39 - Freak Out

* 07:06 - Other People Are Not Worried About AI Killing Everyone

* 09:54 - Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

* 10:41 - Stopping The AI Race and A Narrow Path

* 12:19 - CEOs Know Their Roles

* 14:03 - The Call To Action

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/movie-review-the-ai-doc?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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* 00:00:00 - Introduction

* 00:00:41 - Table of Contents

* 00:02:35 - The OpenAI Foundation Exists

* 00:10:13 - Congress Exists

* 00:13:24 - China Self-Owns

* 00:16:00 - The Quest for Survival

* 00:20:09 - Alex Bores Watch

* 00:24:15 - You Received The Federal Framework

* 00:30:06 - Chip City

* 00:32:15 - Water Water Everywhere

* 00:33:53 - Senator Bernie Sanders Acts Authentically

* 00:38:26 - Pick Up The Phone

* 00:38:52 - Rhetorical Innovation

* 00:49:13 - I’m A Conscious Robot

* 00:54:47 - How To Get Zvi To Read Your Paper

* 00:59:04 - People Really Hate AI

* 00:59:18 - Greetings From The Stop AI Protest

* 01:07:50 - Models Have Goals

* 01:09:27 - If I Was Two-Faced Would I Be Wearing This One

* 01:14:15 - Other People Are Not As Worried About AI Killing Everyone

https://open.substack.com/pub/thezvi/p/ai-161-part-2-every-debate-on-ai?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web

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