Israeli/Ukranian-style bolt from the blue drone attacks freak out Eric.

I don't buy Silicon Shield.

Lessons from Waymo on about the future of warfare.

Intertextual analysis of the Mick Ryan interview.

Fed Supernova, which is a terrible name for a conference, and counterintelligence.

Has John Bolton taken enough Ls already? I guess not.

Guests include:

Outtro Music: Bach, Chris Thile, Partita 1 in B Minor 1002: VI. Double https://open.spotify.com/track/780bh3MspPK19jVDD7EIKu?si=4809af67eda34c38

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Are GPUs being smuggled into China? Nvidia says no. But Steve Burke, editor in chief of Gamer Nexus, has traced out the entire smuggling chain in an epic three-hour YouTube documentary. He filmed another three-hour documentary exploring the impact of tariffs on America’s supply chain ecosystem.

In today’s conversation, we discuss…

Check out ChinaTalk's previous work on the history of Nvidia here.

As of August 21st, YouTube has removed the full documentary. Gamers Nexus is working on getting the video back on YouTube, but you can watch it here in the meantime.

Outro music: Jim and Jesse - Ballad of Thunder Road (YouTube Link)

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Mick Ryan is a retired major general in the Australian army and author of three books — War Transformed: The Future of Twenty-First-Century Great Power Competition and Conflict, White Sun War, which is a piece of fiction about a near-future Taiwan war, and The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire. He also writes the excellent Futura Doctrina Substack, which has taught me a tremendous amount over the past few years. The way Mick synthesizes history and contemporary conflict makes it one of my few true must-read Substacks.

In today’s conversation, we discuss…

Thanks to the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology for sponsoring this podcast.

Outro music: Elvis Presley — Down by the Riverside (YouTube Link)

Reading recommendations:

Paul Kennedy — The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and Engineers of Victory: The Problem Solvers Who Turned the Tide in the Second World War

Norman F. Dixon — On the Psychology of Military Incompetence 

Aimée Fox — Learning to Fight: Military Innovation and Change in the British Army, 1914–1918 

Williamson Murray & Allan R. Millett — Military Innovation in the Interwar Period and Military Effectiveness trilogy 

Trent Hone — Learning War: The Evolution of Fighting Doctrine in the U.S. Navy, 1898–1945 

Brent L. Sterling — Other People’s Wars: The U.S. Military and the Challenge of Learning from Foreign Conflicts (2021)

Dima Adamsky — The Culture of Military Innovation: The Impact of Cultural Factors on the Revolution in Military Affairs in Russia, the US, and Israel (2010)

Meir Finkel — On Flexibility: Recovery from Technological and Doctrinal Surprise on the Battlefield and Military Agility: Ensuring Rapid and Effective Transition from Peace to War

Andrew Krepinevich —  The Origins of Victory: How Disruptive Military Innovation Determines the Fates of Great Powers

R.V. Jones —  The Wizard War: British Scientific Intelligence 1939-1945

Francis Hoffman — Mars Adapting: Military Change During War

You can find more syllabi on Mick Ryan's Substack (here and here)

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Jon, Doug, Dylan and Wei join the chat to talk export controls and GPT5.

Books Doug and I like:

Outtro Music: Europhia II from kkluv's new album https://open.spotify.com/track/61kEkWr0gQrcDwd6uIbxQ1?si=190526b87e96487c

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So we're selling AI chips to China now. Chris Miller, author of Chip Wars, and Lennart Heim at RAND join to discuss:

Check out the Horizon Fellowship to work in DC on emerging tech policy issues like AI chip export controls! https://horizonpublicservice.org/applications-open-for-2026-horizon-fellowship-cohort/

Outtro Music: It's a Shame, The Spinners, 1970

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRQQudHLi0A&ab_channel=TheSpinners-Topic

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We talk AGI nihilism in the Taiwan fight, combined arms breach, and Palmer Luckey's Taiwan speech. Part 2 explores Detachment 201, the evolution of the Office of Strategic Capital, and the MP Materials rare earths deal.

Guests include:

Outtro Music: Last Chance, Mary Cox https://open.spotify.com/track/3LAOSqy3DoiA1OiPxC9yMe?si=da00b16696f042f8

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To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause: The Many Lives of the Soviet Dissident Movement — the Pulitzer Prize-winning book by Professor Ben Nathans — is perhaps the sharpest, richest, and funniest account of the Soviet dissident movement ever written. Today, we’ll interview Nathans alongside the legendary Ian Johnson, whose recent book Sparks explores the Chinese dissident ecosystem.

We discuss…

Today's episode is sponsored by Alaya Tea, cofounded by ChinaTalk listener Smita Satiani. Alaya Tea ships Indian teas straight from the source, and their products are 100% plastic-free. My favorite is their Assam black tea, which I've been using to make a fantastic milk tea. Go to ⁠alayatea.co⁠ and use the code CHINATALKTEA for free shipping.

Outro music: Владимир Высоцкий - Охота на волков (YouTube Link)

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What does it take to make a living betting on politics? Can prediction markets offer insights about the future that other analyses cannot?

To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law.

We discuss…

Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link)

This episode is brought to you by ElevenLabs. I’ve been on the hunt for years for the perfect reader app that puts AI audio at the center of its design. Over the past few months, the ElevenReader app has earned a spot on my iPhone's home screen and now gets about 30 minutes of use every day. I plow through articles using Eleven Reader’s beautiful voices and love having Richard Feynman read me AI news stories — as well as, you know, Matilda every once in a while, too.

I’m also a power user of its bookmark feature, which the ElevenReader team added after I requested it on Twitter. ChinaTalk’s newsletter content even comes preloaded in the feed.

Check out the ElevenReader app if you’re looking for the best mobile reader on the market. Oh, and by the way — if you ever need to transcribe anything, ElevenLabs’  Scribe model has transformed our workflow for getting transcripts out to you on the newsletter. It’s crossed the threshold from “95% good” to “99.5% amazing,” saving our production team hours every week. Check it out the next time you need something transcribed.

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Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack https://observingjapan.substack.com/ joins to discuss the latest Japanese election, how we got here, and what happens next.

Outtro Music: The Communist Party's 2025 Gender song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V59qOPTe62g&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%B1%E7%94%A3%E5%85%9A

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This is part two of our series with Joseph Torigian, author of the definitive biography of Xi Zhongxun. This episode traces the inner world of a man navigating power politics, exile, and reform, and the legacy he left his son, Xi Jinping.

Against the backdrop of the Great Leap Forward, the Sino-Soviet split, the Cultural Revolution, and reform and opening up, we discuss…

The moral dilemmas of a mid-level party cadre,

What it’s like to be purged, and why the party prescribes self-criticism as therapy,

“Frenemies” in the CCP, Deng Xiaoping’s autocratic side, and the unsung heros of the reform period,

How Xi Zhongxun instilled party loyalty and other values in his son,

Xi Zhongxun’s return from exile and his complicated relationship with reform,

How Chinese leaders think about redemption, guilt, and survival,

And a bonus: Why the PRC-produced biopic of Xi Zhongxun is so disappointing — and why his life deserves the Star Wars treatment.

Outro music: Teresa Teng - 小城故事 (YouTube Link)

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