After five long years since ⁠his last ChinaTalk appearance⁠, Jake Sullivan returns to the show!

We discuss…

Check out Sullivan's new podcast, The Long Game (⁠Apple⁠, ⁠Spotify⁠)

Reading recommendations:

A reminder: this is the conversation I wanted to have with Jake, not the one you want to have. For other recent interviews that get more into the Biden administration around the withdrawal of Afghanistan, the pace of arming Ukraine, and America’s handling of Israel’s invasion of Gaza, see all these six other shows he’s done this year.⁠

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Justin and Eric cohost with Pete Modigliani and Matt McGregor, coauthors of the Defense Tech and Acquisition substack (https://defenseacquisition.substack.com/).

Chapters

16:24 The Future of Defense Technology and Startups

33:37 Cultural Shifts in Acquisition Practices

44:57 Taskers and Bureaucratic Inefficiencies

55:06 Vendor Lock and Software Solutions

Outtro music: more suno slop https://suno.com/s/FVtn90DmV8xuLcfp

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Jasmine Sun (https://jasmi.news/), Nathan Lambert (https://www.interconnects.ai/), and special guest Afra Wang (https://afraw.substack.com/).

Our article on 'China makes AI girlfriends and America makes AI boyfriends' https://www.chinatalk.media/p/why-america-builds-ai-girlfriends

More on the Hefei model: https://hellochinatech.substack.com/p/china-hefei-model

05:53 ai

12:46 remorseful AI models

29:43 AI in porn

32:17 ai voice generation uncanny valley

34:55 good Chinese AI models and the hefei model

47:40 Vice Signaling

Outtro music: a suno song with kimi-generated generated lyrics called "A glitch in the gospel" https://suno.com/s/O8tIJ63c7t3NOEtO

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we cooked better than cafe milano

00:00 Colby's trainwreck of a hearing + right wing DC food

16:42 Countering Drones

35:32 How to train seriously

Guests include:

Outtro music: more suno https://suno.com/s/hpZX8pdjirTsM5je

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Peter Harrell and Oren Cass join the show to talk IEEPA at the Supreme Court and broader US grand strategy towards China.

03:01 IEPA Tariffs and Their Implications

17:27 Reciprocity and Trade Agreements

20:13 USMCA and Fortress North America

39:01 Decoupling from China: A Strategic Perspective

43:41 Trump's Economic Approach to China

47:48 The Chips Debate: National Security and Economic Interests

01:05:24 Reflections on Political Discourse and Legal Arguments

01:16:17 a ridiculous suno song

We discuss Oren's 'Grand Strategy of Reciprocity' https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/grand-strategy-reciprocity and 'Stop Selling the Rope' essays https://americancompass.org/stop-selling-the-rope/

Outtro music: Suno does Hamilton for this case https://suno.com/s/xPRkTjq5KQ4MPXLb

Peter's amicus brief: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/24/24-1287/380641/20251024173045050_24-1287%2025-150%20Amicus%20Brief.pdf

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Why do leaders with vast expert bureaucracies at their fingertips make devastating foreign policy decisions? Tyler Jost, professor at Brown, joins ChinaTalk to discuss his first book, Bureaucracies at War, a fascinating analysis of miscalculation in international conflicts.

As we travel from Mao’s role in border conflicts, to Deng’s blunder in Vietnam, to LBJ’s own Vietnam error, a tragic pattern emerges — leaders gradually isolating themselves from their own information gathering systems with catastrophic consequences.

Today our conversation covers…

How Mao’s early success undermined his long-term decision-making,

The role of succession pressures in both Deng’s and LBJ’s actions in Vietnam,

The bureaucratic mechanisms that lead to echo chambers, and how China’s siloed institutions affect Xi’s governance,

The lingering question of succession in China,

What we can learn from the institutional failures behind Vietnam and Iraq.

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Featuring the Kirsten and Charlotte Asdal alongside Tony (https://www.breakingbeijing.com/) Eric Robinson, Justin (https://justinmc.substack.com/) and myself

Chapters

02:55 US-China Relations: Punctuated Decoupling

05:52 Woo Trump didn't sell out Taiwan! But what if he did?

08:21 Xi Jinping's Confidence and Military Calculations

24:12 Blockades

28:54 Innovation vs. Production in Defense Technology

43:08 Book Recommendations and Cultural Reflections

44:57 Game of the Week: Historical Insights

Outtro music: suno' s version of bad bunny singing about antietam. I promise I won't do this for every episode outtro until the AI gets better.

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Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.

We discuss…

Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (⁠https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f⁠)

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Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack returns to catch us up on the new Prime Minister. We get into what Takaichii's deal is, chart her rise to power, explore the domestic constraints she'll operate under, and what she will mean for Japan's international relations and defense policy.

Chapters:

00:00 Election Upset and Political Drama

07:43 The Rise of Takaichi, Her Political Background and Style

24:27 National Defense and International Relations

40:58 Coalition Challenges and Government Stability

48:33 Implications of a Minority Government

01:03:47 How She'll Do With Trump

Outtro Music: Gotta - Tade Dust

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Joining the pod today are Rob Lee of FPRI, Shashank Joshi of the Economist, and Tony Stark of the Breaking Beijing substack.

We discuss…

Outro music:  Leon Bridges and Khruangbin - Texas Sun, a song that made it onto a 2022 playlist a reporter made of songs they heard on the front in Ukraine (https://open.spotify.com/playlist/72paG2c3VqKblZsZlsCBOx?si=ace9197c40c6440f)

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