Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro, a founding partner at Gavekal Dragonomics, and author of "China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know." It's the most useful, detailed resource I've found of how China actually works.

On this episode, we discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance, and where they'll go from here. By Arthur’s account, the Chinese government is like a giant VC fund: they decide on key priorities and then spend hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing ruthless competition at the local level. They are willing to lose huge amounts of money for a few of their bets to pay off: at China’s scale, effectiveness matters more than efficiency.

There's also a growing bipartisan consensus that we need to combat China's rise. This doesn’t make much sense to me. China is a big, powerful country at the frontier in many fields, and its economy is intricately tied in with our own. Being instinctively adversarial is both unsustainable and risky. Arthur and I discuss how we can create a productive, mutually beneficial version of this relationship.

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.

* WorkOS Radar ensures your product’s free trials go to actual users. Radar uses 80+ signals to distinguish malicious bots from real people, eliminating costly free-tier abuse. See why companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and OpenAI use Radar by visiting workos.com/radar.

* Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They help you understand your options and navigate applications for expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A. Explore which visa is right for you at https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – We should reconcile with China

(00:21:21) – BYD, Tesla, & Chinese EV industry

(00:36:05) – Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis?

(00:44:39) – Local debt situation is manageable

(00:57:28) – If CCP is so competent, why isn’t China richer?

(01:05:08) – How China keeps tech under control

(01:33:45) – Does China win AI?

(01:43:34) – Communication with China key for AI safety

(02:10:08) – What foreigners get wrong about China

(02:17:32) – China-US relationship future

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Ken Rogoff is the former chief economist of the IMF, a professor of Economics at Harvard, and author of the newly released Our Dollar, Your Problem and This Time is Different.

On this episode, Ken predicts that, within the next decade, the US will have a debt-induced inflation crisis, but not a Japan-type financial crisis (the latter is much worse, and can make a country poorer for generations).

Ken also explains how China is trapped: in order to solve their current problems, they’ll keep leaning on financial repression and state-directed investment, which only makes their situation worse.

We also discuss the erosion of dollar dominance, why there will be a rebalancing toward foreign equities, how AGI will impact the deficit and interest rate, and much more!

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* WorkOS gives your product all the features that enterprise customers need, without derailing your roadmap. Skip months of engineering effort and start selling to enterprises today at workos.com.

* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.

* Gemini Live API lets you have natural, real-time, interactions with Gemini. You can talk to it like you were talking to another person, stream video to show it your surroundings, and share screen to give it context. Try it now by clicking the “Stream” tab on ai.dev.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – China is stagnating

(00:25:46) – How the US broke Japan's economy

(00:37:06) – America's inflation crisis is coming

(01:02:20) – Will AGI solve the US deficit?

(01:07:11) – Why interest rates will go up

(01:10:55) – US equities will underperform

(01:22:24) – The erosion of dollar dominance

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

On this episode, I chat with Victor Shih about all things China. We discuss China’s massive local debt crisis, the CCP’s views on AI, what happens after Xi, and more.

Victor Shih is an expert on the Chinese political system, as well as their banking and fiscal policies, and he has amassed more biographical data on the Chinese elite than anyone else in the world. He teaches at UC San Diego, where he also directs the 21st Century China Center.

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Scale is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they just released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.

* WorkOS is how top AI companies ship critical enterprise features without burning months of engineering time. If you need features like SSO, audit logs, or user provisioning, head to workos.com.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Is China more decentralized than the US?

(00:03:16) – How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions

(00:21:07) – Xi’s right hand man in charge of AGI

(00:35:37) – DeepSeek was trained to track CCP policy

(00:45:35) – Local government debt crisis

(00:50:00) – BYD, CATL, & financial repression

(00:58:12) – How corruption leads to overbuilding

(01:10:46) – Probability of Taiwan invasion

(01:18:56) – Succession after Xi

(01:25:10) – Future growth forecasts

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

New episode with my good friends Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken. Sholto focuses on scaling RL and Trenton researches mechanistic interpretability, both at Anthropic.

We talk through what’s changed in the last year of AI research; the new RL regime and how far it can scale; how to trace a model’s thoughts; and how countries, workers, and students should prepare for AGI.

See you next year for v3. Here’s last year’s episode, btw. Enjoy!

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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SPONSORS

* WorkOS ensures that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic don't have to spend engineering time building enterprise features like access controls or SSO. It’s not that they don't need these features; it's just that WorkOS gives them battle-tested APIs that they can use for auth, provisioning, and more. Start building today at workos.com.

* Scale is building the infrastructure for safer, smarter AI. Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, while their public leaderboards help assess model capabilities. They also just released Scale Evaluation, a new tool that diagnoses model limitations. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.

* Lighthouse is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They specialize in expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A, and they’ve already helped companies like Cursor, Notion, and Replit navigate U.S. immigration. Explore which visa is right for you at lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

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TIMESTAMPS

(00:00:00) – How far can RL scale?

(00:16:27) – Is continual learning a key bottleneck?

(00:31:59) – Model self-awareness

(00:50:32) – Taste and slop

(01:00:51) – How soon to fully autonomous agents?

(01:15:17) – Neuralese

(01:18:55) – Inference compute will bottleneck AGI

(01:23:01) – DeepSeek algorithmic improvements

(01:37:42) – Why are LLMs ‘baby AGI’ but not AlphaZero?

(01:45:38) – Mech interp

(01:56:15) – How countries should prepare for AGI

(02:10:26) – Automating white collar work

(02:15:35) – Advice for students

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Based on my essay about AI firms.

Huge thanks to Petr and his team for bringing this to life!

Watch on YouTube.

Thanks to Google for sponsoring. We used their Veo 2 model to make this entire video—it generated everything from the photorealistic humans to the claymation octopuses. If you’re a Gemini Advanced user, you can try Veo 2 now in the Gemini app. Just select Veo 2 in the dropdown, and type your video idea in the prompt bar. Get started today by going to gemini.google.com.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Zuck on:

* Llama 4, benchmark gaming

* Intelligence explosion, business models for AGI

* DeepSeek/China, export controls, & Trump

* Orion glasses, AI relationships, and preventing reward-hacking from our tech.

Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

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SPONSORS

* Scale is building the infrastructure for safer, smarter AI. Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, while their public leaderboards help assess model capabilities. They also just released Scale Evaluation, a new tool that diagnoses model limitations. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh.

* WorkOS Radar protects your product against bots, fraud, and abuse. Radar uses 80+ signals to identify and block common threats and harmful behavior. Join companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and OpenAI that have eliminated costly free-tier abuse by visiting workos.com/radar.

* Lambda is THE cloud for AI developers, with over 50,000 NVIDIA GPUs ready to go for startups, enterprises, and hyperscalers. By focusing exclusively on AI, Lambda provides cost-effective compute supported by true experts, including a serverless API serving top open-source models like Llama 4 or DeepSeek V3-0324 without rate limits, and available for a free trial at lambda.ai/dwarkesh.

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/p/advertise.

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TIMESTAMPS

(00:00:00) – How Llama 4 compares to other models

(00:11:34) – Intelligence explosion

(00:26:36) – AI friends, therapists & girlfriends

(00:35:10) – DeepSeek & China

(00:39:49) – Open source AI

(00:54:15) – Monetizing AGI

(00:58:32) – The role of a CEO

(01:02:04) – Is big tech aligning with Trump?

(01:07:10) – 100x productivity

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

800 years before the Black Death, the very same bacteria ravaged Rome, killing 60%+ of the population in many areas.

Also, back-to-back volcanic eruptions caused a mini Ice Age, leaving Rome devastated by famine and disease.

I chatted with historian Kyle Harper about this and much else:

* Rome as a massive slave society

* Why humans are more disease-prone than other animals

* How agriculture made us physically smaller (Caesar at 5'5" was considered tall)

Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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SPONSORS

* WorkOS makes it easy to become enterprise-ready. They have APIs for all the most common enterprise requirements—things like authentication, permissions, and encryption—so you can quickly plug them in and get back to building your core product. If you want to make your product enterprise-ready, join companies like Cursor, Perplexity and OpenAI, and head to workos.com.

* Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier of capabilities at scale.com/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

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KYLE'S BOOKS

* The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire

* Plagues upon the Earth: Disease and the Course of Human History

* Slavery in the Late Roman World, AD 275-425

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TIMESTAMPS

(00:00:00) - Plague's impact on Rome's collapse

(00:06:24) - Rome's little Ice Age

(00:11:51) - Why did progress stall in Rome's Golden Age?

(00:23:55) - Slavery in Rome

(00:36:22) - Was agriculture a mistake?

(00:47:42) - Disease's impact on cognitive function

(00:59:46) - Plague in India and Central Asia

(01:05:16) - The next pandemic

(01:16:48) - How Kyle uses LLMs

(01:18:51) - De-extinction of lost species

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Ege Erdil and Tamay Besiroglu have 2045+ timelines, think the whole "alignment" framing is wrong, don't think an intelligence explosion is plausible, but are convinced we'll see explosive economic growth (economy literally doubling every year or two).

This discussion offers a totally different scenario than my recent interview with Scott and Daniel.

Ege and Tamay are the co-founders of Mechanize (disclosure - I’m an angel investor), a startup dedicated to fully automating work. Before founding Mechanize, Ege and Tamay worked on AI forecasts at Epoch AI.

Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Sponsors

* WorkOS makes it easy to become enterprise-ready. With simple APIs for essential enterprise features like SSO and SCIM, WorkOS helps companies like Vercel, Plaid, and OpenAI meet the requirements of their biggest customers. To learn more about how they can help you do the same, visit workos.com

* Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh

* Google's Gemini Pro 2.5 is the model we use the most at Dwarkesh Podcast: it helps us generate transcripts, identify interesting clips, and code up new tools. If you want to try it for yourself, it's now available in Preview with higher rate limits! Start building with it today at aistudio.google.com.

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) - AGI will take another 3 decades

(00:22:27) - Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence 

(00:45:04) - Intelligence explosion

(01:00:57) - Ege & Tamay’s story

(01:06:24) - Explosive economic growth

(01:33:00) - Will there be a separate AI economy?

(01:47:08) - Can we predictably influence the future?

(02:19:48) - Arms race dynamic

(02:29:48) - Is superintelligence a real thing?

(02:35:45) - Reasons not to expect explosive growth

(02:49:00) - Fully automated firms

(02:54:43) - Will central planning work after AGI?

(02:58:20) - Career advice

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Scott and Daniel break down every month from now until the 2027 intelligence explosion.

Scott Alexander is author of the highly influential blogs Slate Star Codex and Astral Codex Ten. Daniel Kokotajlo resigned from OpenAI in 2024, rejecting a non-disparagement clause and risking millions in equity to speak out about AI safety.

We discuss misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas researching AI progress.

I came in skeptical, but I learned a tremendous amount by bouncing my objections off of them. I highly recommend checking out their new scenario planning document, AI 2027

Watch on Youtube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Sponsors

* WorkOS helps today’s top AI companies get enterprise-ready. OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, Anthropic and hundreds more use WorkOS to quickly integrate features required by enterprise buyers. To learn more about how you can make the leap to enterprise, visit workos.com

* Jane Street likes to know what's going on inside the neural nets they use. They just released a black-box challenge for Dwarkesh listeners, and I had a blast trying it out. See if you have the skills to crack it at janestreet.com/dwarkesh

* Scale’s Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at scale.com/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) - AI 2027

(00:06:56) - Forecasting 2025 and 2026

(00:14:41) - Why LLMs aren't making discoveries

(00:24:33) - Debating intelligence explosion

(00:49:45) - Can superintelligence actually transform science?

(01:16:54) - Cultural evolution vs superintelligence

(01:24:05) - Mid-2027 branch point

(01:32:30) - Race with China

(01:44:47) - Nationalization vs private anarchy

(02:03:22) - Misalignment

(02:14:52) - UBI, AI advisors, & human future

(02:23:00) - Factory farming for digital minds

(02:26:52) - Daniel leaving OpenAI

(02:35:15) - Scott's blogging advice

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

I recorded an AMA! I had a blast chatting with my friends Trenton Bricken and Sholto Douglas. We discussed my new book, career advice given AGI, how I pick guests, how I research for the show, and some other nonsense.

My book, “The Scaling Era: An Oral History of AI, 2019-2025” is available in digital format now. Preorders for the print version are also open!

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Timestamps

(0:00:00) - Book launch announcement

(0:04:57) - AI models not making connections across fields

(0:10:52) - Career advice given AGI

(0:15:20) - Guest selection criteria

(0:17:19) - Choosing to pursue the podcast long-term

(0:25:12) - Reading habits

(0:31:10) - Beard deepdive

(0:33:02) - Who is best suited for running an AI lab?

(0:35:16) - Preparing for fast AGI timelines

(0:40:50) - Growing the podcast

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe