By Patrick McKenzie
4.8
8383 ratings
The podcast currently has 17 episodes available.
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Ross Rheingans-Yoo to discuss drug development and clinical trials. Ross breaks down how drugs progress from academic research through FDA approval, the challenging economics, and the many systemic inefficiencies in the current approval process. Patrick and Ross discuss historical cases like the thalidomide crisis that shaped FDA policy, the evolution of accelerated approvals during the AIDS epidemic, and lessons from COVID-19 trials. Ross shares his current work rescuing abandoned promising drugs from bankruptcy.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/drug-development-ross-rheingans-yoo/
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Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check
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Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
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Twitter:
@patio11
@_rossry
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:28) Ross’ career transition to drug development
(03:12) The drug development process
(06:22) Clinical trials and FDA approval
(11:48) Challenges in clinical trials
(14:50) Case study: COVID-19 trials
(18:00) Sponsors: Manifold Markets | Check
(19:55) Pharmaceutical economics
(38:13) Rare diseases and regulatory strategies
(45:18) Advanced market commitments explained
(45:54) Operation warp speed and its impact
(47:45) How to get accelerated approvals
(52:49) The thalidomide tragedy and its legacy
(01:03:17) Modern regulatory challenges and patient advocacy
(01:07:14) Reviving abandoned drugs
(01:12:06) Innovative approaches to drug trials
(01:24:26) The future of pharmaceutical development
(01:26:34) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by economist and fraud researcher Professor Jetson Luis-Leder to examine the systemic issues underlying government program fraud. Jetson and Patrick discuss healthcare fraud cases, including hospice eligibility manipulation and ambulance transport schemes, and other fraud practices against unemployment and the PPP program. The discussion reveals how institutional constraints, technological limitations, and policy design choices create opportunities for both beneficial and harmful rule violations. They also analyze the ROI of fraud prevention measures, the effectiveness of whistleblower incentives, and how bureaucratic systems can be redesigned to prevent abuse.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/defrauding-government-jetson-leder-luis
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Sponsors: Check | WorkOS
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
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Links:
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Twitter:
@patio11
@jetson_econ
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:04) Overview of Medicare/Medicaid
(02:41) Estimated $50-100B fraud losses
(03:31) Taxonomy of healthcare fraud
(08:04) Hospice fraud; potentially saved money
(16:33) A $10 billion asterisk: ambulances for dialysis patients
(21:30) Sponsors: Work OS | Check
(24:45) Complexities of fraud detection and prevention
(39:02) Pandemic fraud
(41:34) Findings on PPP loans fraud
(48:19) Supply chain of fraud
(52:06) Policy and enforcement challenges
(01:08:32) Whistleblower programs
(01:14:54) Final thoughts
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Moses Kagan, co-founder of Adaptive Realty, ReSeed, and Reconvene. Their deep dive into real estate investing and property management covers the different classes of apartment buildings, the challenges of property management, and the complexities of financing structures in the industry. They examine how the internet has transformed capital raising, the significance of cap rates, the effects of supply and demand on property values, and a comparison of the real estate markets in different major cities.
The episode is in many ways a follow up to Patrick’s conversation with Jim McKenzie and offers a window into the opaque world of real estate investment.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/real-estate-moses-kagan/
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Sponsor: Check
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
Moses Kagan's blog: https://kagansblog.com/
Reconvene Conference: https://www.reconvene.com/
Seth Godin’s book Permission Marketing: https://www.amazon.com/Permission-Marketing-Strangers-Friends-Customers/dp/0684856360
Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
Jim McKenzie on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:25) Understanding the stigma of the maligned landlord
(04:07) Landlord spectrum: from mom-and-pops to institutional players
(05:29) Inside Adaptive Realty
(06:13) Owner vs. property manager
(07:34) Challenges and complexities of property management
(15:00) Capital stacks and loans
(18:17) Sponsor: Check
(26:25) The role of banks and underwriting in real estate
(40:28) Federal subsidies and small scale landlords
(44:26) Understanding commercial real estate classes
(46:20) Challenges of Class C assets
(47:13) Explaining cap rates
(52:20) Raising equity for real estate deals
(54:16) The syndication process
(56:30) The role of brokers and execution risk
(01:00:52) Legal structures and documentation
(01:10:52) The power of networking and reputation
(01:23:14) The impact of supply and demand on rents
(01:28:03) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Erik Torenberg, investor and the media entrepreneur behind Turpentine, explore the evolving relationship between tech journalism and the industry it covers. They discuss how fictional portrayals of industries greatly inform how jobseekers understand those industries, and how the industries understand themselves.
They cover the vacuum in quality tech reporting, the emergence of independent media companies, and industry heavyweights with massive followings. Patrick also brings up the phenomenon of Twitter/Slack crossovers, where coordinated social media action is used to influence internal company policies and public narratives. They examine how this dynamic, combined with economic pressures and ideological motivations, has led to increased groupthink in tech journalism.
Expanding on themes covered in Kelsey Piper’s episode of Complex Systems, this conversation makes more legible the important ways media affects tech, even though tech is arguably a more sophisticated industry – and why there is a need to move beyond simplistic narratives of "holding power accountable" to provide nuanced, informative coverage that helps people understand tech’s impact on society.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-media-erik-torenberg
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Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to https://checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
Bits About Money, “Fiction and Finance” https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/fiction-about-finance/
Byrne Hobart’s essay on The Social Network https://byrnehobart.medium.com/the-social-network-was-the-most-important-movie-of-all-time-9f91f66018d7
Kelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB
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Twitter:
@patio11
@eriktorenberg
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:27) Fiction and Finance: The power of narrative
(01:41) The Social Network's impact on career choices
(03:34) Cultural perceptions and entrepreneurship
(06:04) Media influence and tech industry perception
(11:01) The role of tech journalism
(14:15) Social media's impact on journalism
(19:39) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
(21:54) The intersection of media and tech
(39:22) Public intellectualism in tech
(57:40) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by his father, Jim McKenzie, for an intimate and in depth exploration of commercial real estate development. They unravel the complex web of relationships, regulations, and often absurd situations that shape our built environment. From the intricacies of curb cuts and driveway permits to the art of navigating local politics and lobbyists, the conversation offers a rare glimpse into the hidden mechanisms of urban development. Jim shares the highlights from his career like transforming day-old bread stores into bank branches, dealing with Chicago's infamous aldermen, and spelunking in archives to find century-old telegrams with enforceable contractual implications.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/the-hundred-year-old-telegram-worth-5-million-with-jim-mckenzie-2/
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Sponsor: Check
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/why-is-that-bank-branch-there/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:27) Understanding real estate development with Jim
(03:13) The great rail lease story
(20:02) How real estate ownership is conducted
(25:58) Real estate acquisition strategies
(28:39) Sponsor: Check
(29:41) Banks and location
(34:25) Day-old bread: an opportunity
(38:45) The Walgreens development dilemma
(40:22) Strategic offers and unusual numbers
(42:25) The power of personal relationships
(46:37) Navigating real estate offers and execution quality
(52:51) The LaSalle Bank acquisition and its impact
(54:39) The 2008 quadruple whammy
(58:39) The West Town shopping center opportunity
(01:01:44) The complexities of real estate deals
(01:14:24) The 2008 financial crisis and its ripple effects
(01:15:36) The energy industry resurgence post-Ukraine incursion
(01:16:07) Navigating utility easements and real estate
(01:21:43) The complexities of curb cuts and driveway permits
(01:23:46) Chicago's political landscape and real estate development
(01:32:37) Lobbying and political influence in development
(01:51:58) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Byrne Hobart, writer of The Diff, for a follow up conversation about “whales” – and so much more – across the gaming, aviation, software, hospitality and fast food industries. Patrick and Byrne also discuss their writing process, knowledge management, and how they use AI tools.
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Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/byrne-hobart-whales-miscellany
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Sponsors: Check | WorkOS
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
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Links:
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Twitter:
@patio11
@byrnehobart
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:45) Economics of video game currencies
(02:56) Pricing strategies in mobile gaming
(05:08) Monetization skew towards high-end players
(08:08) VIP systems and casino host analogy
(11:08) Whale behavior in casual games
(15:03) Hyper-consuming outliers in other industries
(19:09) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
(21:25) Hobbies and opportunity costs
(23:01) Custom software for tech billionaires
(26:30) Evolution of website development
(29:55) Restaurant websites and delivery apps
(40:17) McDonald's take rates
(44:59) Restaurant groups
(53:34) Tech company cafeterias and employee benefits
(57:57) Google's business model and economic feedback loops
(1:00:57) Early Google investment anecdote
(1:02:16) Writing as a memory aid
(1:04:46) Using ChatGPT for memory assistance
(1:10:30) LLMs as writing and coding aids
(1:13:34) Children's interaction with ChatGPT
(1:18:11) Arguing with LLMs and using them for research
(1:03:00) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/
In this episode of Complex Systems, Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Dave Guarino, a software engineer and policy wonk. They explore the complexities and challenges of public programs, focusing on SNAP aka CalFresh in California, where Dave was the founding engineer and then director. They discuss how society’s complex preferences become policy, driving obviously bad UXes (like 200+ questions for an application) for structural reasons. Patrick and Dave debate structural issues within government agencies that lead to these inefficiencies, the lack of user-centric design, misaligned incentives, a “cavernous gap” in feedback loops, and surprisingly simple ways anyone can influence public policy and improve government systems.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/government-software-dave-guarino/
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Sponsors: Check | WorkOS
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
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Links:
Dave Guarino's newsletter: https://daveguarino.substack.com/
Dan Davies episode of Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Mos4VE3figVXleHDqfXOH
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Twitter:
@patio11
@allafarce
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:03) Complexity of naming government programs
(03:45) How policy decisions are made
(07:19) Why SNAP applications are so complex
(14:17) Why no one stops overly complex applications
(18:44) Political economy of different benefit programs
(24:56) Sponsor: Check | WorkOS
(26:13) Limited visibility into user experience
(29:24) Lack of application completion rate tracking
(35:27) Starting where you are
(43:44) Challenges of modernizing legacy systems
(48:35) Broken feedback loops in government
(53:01) Tech's understanding of service design
(57:07) Issues with improper payments methodology
(1:04:45) Effective ways to influence policy
(1:09:43) Increasing agency in government agencies
(1:14:56) Getting niche policy ideas into circulation
(1:18:04) Importance of frontline knowledge and user feedback
(1:21:33) Improving government services
(1:22:06) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network. Turpentine also has a social network for top founders and execs: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/
In this episode of Complex System, the tables are turned and media entrepreneur/investor Erik Torenberg interviews Patrick McKenzie (patio11) about the intricacies of the financial system, focusing on banking, money laundering, and regulatory compliance. They discuss several of Patrick’s essays from Bits About Money.
Patrick discusses the three stages of money laundering - placement, layering, and integration - and how the financial system has been deputized to act as law enforcement. The conversation touches on the unintended consequences of strict regulations, including their impact on economic growth and financial inclusion.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/true-crime-banking-edition
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Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
Seeing Like a Bank https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/seeing-like-a-bank/
KYC and AMI: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/kyc-and-aml-beyond-the-acronyms/
Money Laundering and AML Compliance: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/money-laundering-and-aml-compliance/
Turpentine Media: www.turpentine.co
Turpentine network for Tech Founders & Execs: www.turpentinenetwork.co
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Twitter:
@patio11
@eriktorenberg
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:33) Seeing like big tech
(06:31) AI, centralization, and information processing
(09:23) Crypto vs AI: Thiel's perspective
(10:30) Seeing like a bank: ledgers and customer service
(19:57) Future of banking customer service
(22:27) Societal goals vs banking efficiency
(28:58) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
(31:15) Understanding KYC and AML
(35:16) Money laundering explained
(42:28) Financial system as law enforcement
(51:41) Ideal changes in the financial system
(52:34) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Dave Kasten, to discuss their experiences building VaccinateCA, a charitable effort that collected, collated, and distributed vaccine distribution information during the COVID-19 pandemic. (If you Googled for the vaccine, the search results likely came from VaccinateCA’s data.) They cover the challenges of rapidly scaling a volunteer-driven organization, the lessons learned about public health infrastructure, the intricacies of interfacing with government bureaucracy, and reasons to be cautiously optimistic about tech/government collaboration.
Expanding on a theme from recent episodes (see: Casey Handmer), Dave and Patrick cover the stark differences between government and tech sector’s approach to problem-solving. They offer insights into the often-misunderstood world of government operations, the individuals who make it function, and the "scar tissue" of regulations that can both protect and hinder progress.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/tech-government-dave-kasten/
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Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
The Story of VaccinateCA, Works in Progress https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/
https://davekasten.substack.com/
https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/
Complex Systems episode ft. Kelsey Piper (Spotify): https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB
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Twitter:
@patio11
@David_Kasten
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:23) Dave Kasten’s unique career path
(01:37) The beginning of VaccinateCA
(03:09) Early challenges and volunteer efforts
(07:24) Volunteer coordination and call center operations
(10:55) Navigating policies and procedures
(14:33) Navigating policies and prioritization
(21:00) Adapting to volunteer feedback
(22:50) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
(25:07) Public reception and media involvement
(35:40) Government and institutional responses
(45:59) Differences between tech and government approaches
(47:52) Challenges in pandemic information dissemination
(49:10) Accuracy and information systems
(53:43) Government and agile development
(56:51) Bureaucratic constraints and historical practices
(01:08:55) Government workforce and technological challenges
(01:22:34) The importance of policy engagement
(01:33:42) Wrap
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Austin Vernon, a petroleum engineer, to discuss the technology and economics of fracking. Austin explains the evolution of drilling technology, the financial ecosystem supporting the oil industry – including the unique "doctor and lawyer money" funding model – and the complex interplay of mineral rights laws and state/local politics in the United States. Patrick and Austin also discuss the cross-pollination of technologies between fracking and emerging fields like geothermal energy extraction.
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Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fracking-austin-vernon/
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Sponsors: Check | WorkOS
Building an enterprise-ready SaaS app? WorkOS has got you covered with easy-to-integrate APIs for SAML, SCIM, and more. Start now at https://bit.ly/WorkOS-Turpentine-Network
Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.
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Links:
Austin Vernon's Blog: https://austinvernon.site/
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Twitter:
@patio11
@Vernon3Austin
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:38) Fracking technology and horizontal drilling
(05:12) The history and development of fracking techniques
(12:26) Communication methods in drilling operations, including mud pulse technology
(15:50) The economics of drilling operations
(17:28) Scale and cost comparisons between different types of drilling projects
(19:30) Safety considerations in onshore vs offshore drilling
(20:50) Sponsors: WorkOS | Check
(24:04) Discussion of small-scale "mom and pop" oil operations
(27:13) The impact of oil drilling on local economies
(31:45) The lifecycle of fracked wells and their long-term production
(36:15) Financing in the oil and gas industry
(39:19) Unique aspects of US mineral rights laws and leasing practices
(42:38) The process of setting up and funding new drilling operations
(52:55) Environmental concerns and groundwater protection measures in fracking
(56:40) The physical footprint of drilling operations
(59:12) Learning curves in fracking and geothermal energy extraction
(59:56) Diamond drill bits are not quite forever
(01:03:59) Where fracking goes from here
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Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.
The podcast currently has 17 episodes available.
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