Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought,  & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025

(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)

(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations

(14:02) Big Tech CapEx

(16:51) Scaling Inference

(20:11) Future of AI

(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development

(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth

(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE

(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI

(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI

(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of Thought

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

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Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory

(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory

(04:18) Google's AI Workload

(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge

(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation

(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA

(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers

(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges

(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?

(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation

(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx

(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning

(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA

(44:11) Inference-time Compute

(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics

(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology

(01:06:46) Chip Competition

(01:07:18) AMD

(01:10:35) Google’s TPU

(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium

(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

Dylan Patel @dylan522p

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO

(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee 

(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO

(11:34) Advice for CEOs

(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI

(19:42) AI Arms Race

(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI

(28:07) The Future of AI Agents

(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory

(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption

(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft

(56:03) CapX

(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference

(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit

(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI

(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they get in the Thanksgiving spirit, and discuss China, DOGE, Governor Newsom’s EV Tax Credit, Service Titan IPO, FedNow, Tariffs, Anthropic Open Source, Warren Buffet’s Thanksgiving letter, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:40) Innovation in China & U.S. Competitiveness

(05:43) DOGE & Balancing the Budget

(10:43) Service Titan IPO & “Compounding Ratchet”

(15:36) Gov Newsom Attack on Tesla

(18:33) FedNow + Innovations in Payment Systems

(23:44) Tariffs as Negotiation Tactics

(27:36) Anthropic Open Source AI

(30:39) Warren Buffett's Philanthropy

(40:06) Invest America

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:00) AI Scaling Laws

(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends

(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality

(17:51) AI Memory and Actions

(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation

(23:14) FSD 13

(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry

(31:18) The Future of OEM’s

(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)

(54:47) Tech Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX

(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball

(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization

(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns

(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies

(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure

(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election

(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Jamin Ball @jaminball⁠

Shownotes 

Clouded Judgement Substack

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Sunny Madra (Groq) they discuss Jensen Huang’s recent appearance on the podcast, including scaling intelligence towards AGI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, the role of CUDA in the developer ecosystem, the future of inference workloads, systems-level thinking,  Elon Musk's influence on AI development, the future of AI assistants, open vs closed AI models, safety and security in AI development, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction and Initial Reactions to Jensen

(04:32) NVIDIA's Position in Accelerated Compute

(05:11) CUDA and NVIDIA’s Competitive Moat

(12:53) Challenges to NVIDIA’s Competitive Advantage

(18:22) Future Outlook on Inference

(24:46) The Insatiable Demand for AI and Hardware

(27:12) Elon Musk' and X.ai

(31:47) Scaling AI Models and Clusters

(34:17) Economic Models and Funding in AI

(39:08) The Future of AI Pricing and Consumption Models

(42:25) Memory, Actions, and Intelligent Agents

(47:08) The Role of AI in Business Productivity

(51:03) Open vs Closed Models in AI Development

#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, makes a guest appearance. In Bill’s absence, Brad is joined by Clark Tang (Partner at Altimeter) as they discuss with Jensen scaling intelligence towards AGI, the acceleration of machine learning, NVIDIA's competitive advantages, the significance of inference alongside training, future market dynamics in the AI landscape, the impact of AI on various industries, the future of work, inference time reasoning, AI’s potential to enhance productivity, the balance between open source and closed source, Elon’s Memphis Supercluster, X.ai, OpenAI, the safe development of AI, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Chapters

(00:00) Introduction

(1:50) The Evolution of AGI and Personal Assistants

(06:03) NVIDIA's Competitive Moat

(15:51 ) The Future of Inference and Training in AI

(19:01) Building the AI Infrastructure

(31:35) Inventing a New Market in an AI Future

(38:40) The Impact of OpenAI

(43:25) The Future of AI Models

(46.44) X.ai and Memphis Supercluster

(51:21) Distributed Computing and Inference Scaling

(55:54) Inference Time Reasoning and Its Importance

(01:00:46) AI's Role in Growing Business and Improving Productivity

(01:08:00) Ensuring Safe AI Development

(01:12:31) The Balance of Open Source and Closed Source AI

#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss private sector interest in nuclear energy, AI supply and demand, OpenAI Strawberry o1,inference constraints, the evolution of AI models, the state of VC, zombiecorns, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance

(08:15) AI Fast and Furious

(11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1

(17:15) Inference Constraints

(20:18) Open AI Breaking Out

(35:00) State of VC

(43:52) “Quasi-Public Companies”

(48:32) Liquidity / IPOs

(58:41) Tech Market Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they sit down with Maureen Zawalick (Vice President at Diablo Canyon Power Plant) to discuss the importance of nuclear power, the history and future of Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the role of AI in the nuclear industry, the cost differential of nuclear energy in the US and China, Gen 4 reactors, regulation, litigation, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(04:14) Maureen Zawalick | VP at Diablo Canyon

(06:13) The Need for Diablo

(10:07) The Importance of Nuclear Power

(15:50) License Renewal and the Future of Diablo

(18:39) Hope for Expanding Nuclear Power

(25:22) Nuclear Waste

(30:29) Cost Differential: US vs China

(38:56) Factors Contributing to Cost Differential

(45:07) Implications of China’s Nuclear Leadership

(47:42) Nuclear Energy and AI Supremacy

(50:58) The Innovation Gap and Gen 4 Reactors

(57:27) Overcoming Challenges

(01:03:45) A Call for Government Support

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

****

Shownotes:

US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program 2020

ITIF.org - How Innovative Is China in Nuclear Power

NYTimes - Nuclear Power Can Save the World

Reuters - Constellation talking to Pennsylvania on Three Mile Island restart

Julie Dewahl - Nuclear Past Present Future

Breakthrough Institute - China’s Impressive Rate of Nuclear Construction

Next Big Future - US Nuclear Cost 5-10x More Than China

Energy.gov - Newly Signed Bill to Boost Nuclear

Advanced Nuclear - Nuclear Commercial Liftoff

LA Times - Loan to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open

South Korea Builds Nuclear Plants Quickly and Cheaply

Nuclear Power in South Korea

Westinghouse Electric's Chinese 'Trojan Horse'

Friends of the Earth sues DOE over Billion Dollar Award to Diablo Canyon

Revitalizing America’s Nuclear Energy Supply Chain

Idaho Natl Laboratory - Recommendations to Improve the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Licensing and Approval Process

5 charts to explain why nuclear power is making a comeback

Podcast - The cost of nuclear - Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann

RIC 2024 Opening Session - Remarks by NRC Chair Christopher T. Hanson

A One-on-One with NRC Chair Christopher Hanson

Bill Gates on Bipartisan Support for Nuclear Power

Podcast w/ PG&E CEO Patricia Poppe

Germany Reacts to Trump's UNGA Speech

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod