Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they revisit arguments about free trade, and discuss updates on tariff negotiations, export controls, the new AI cold war, NVIDIA H20 chip ban, rare earth ban, DeepSeek, Tesla, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:15) Complex Systems

(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade

(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban

(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game

(52:37) $TSLA & Market Check

Show Notes:

Financial Times - US rare earth champion faces trade war test after tariffs halt China sales

CNBC - U.S. chip controls will benefit China’s Nvidia rivals like Huawei: Analysts

Project Syndicate - Trump’s $16 Trillion Trade Blind Spot

NYTimes - I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America (Thomas L. Friedman)

Ezra Klein Podcast feat. Thomas Friedman

John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024

Reuters - China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earths

NYTimes - Nvidia Says U.S. Will Restrict Sales of More of Its A.I. Chips to China

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:20) Liberation Day & Tariffs

(19:18) US Open Source vs China Open Source

(34:34) OpenAI Fundraise

(52:25) Coreweave IPO & AI Demand

(01:04:03) Rumors on TikTok deal

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:21) Market Uncertainty

(07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies

(25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment 

(40:33) $NVDA Market Position

(55:37) Government Regulations & Impact on AI

(1:04:45) Consumer AI Demand

(1:10:33) AI Unit Economics

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:21) Market Uncertainty

(07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies

(25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment 

(40:33) $NVDA Market Position

(55:37) Government Regulations & Impact on AI

(1:04:45) Consumer AI Demand

(1:10:33) AI Unit Economics

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Grok 3, AI memory, voice, and evaluations, China, DOGE, the public market pullback, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:40) Grok 3

(05:55) Grok’s Leverage of X Platform

(07:25) AI Consumer Market & SEO

(23:04) AI Memory

(26:15) AI Voice

(29:05) Future AI Assets

(33:29) AI Acceleration in China

(36:09) Regulatory Challenges

(37:46) AI CapEx and Investing Dynamics

(48:38) Government Spending + DOGE

(1:00:51) Golden State Warriors

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss DeepSeek, globalism vs national interests, Trump tariffs, open source, DOGE, & more. . Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(03:20) DeepSeek & Open Source

(37:03) Trump Tariffs

(50:31) DOGE

(01:04:19) Tech and Political Uncertainty

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by a surprise guest, and discuss Stargate, executive orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:21) Stargate

(15:07) Dylan Patel and Semianalysis take on Stargate

(17:56) Stargate’s Impact on AI Competitive Landscape

(29:03) DeepSeek

(32:03) Special Guest Rene Haas (CEO of ARM Holdings)

(49:46) DeepSeek continued

(51:53) Trumps Executive Orders & Regulatory Freeze

(54:10) Coordination in AI Legistlation

(59:38) US National Debt and Balancing the Budget

(1:01:08) TikTok

(1:05:48) Tech Check

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

Rene Haas @renehaas237

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought,  & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025

(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)

(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations

(14:02) Big Tech CapEx

(16:51) Scaling Inference

(20:11) Future of AI

(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development

(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth

(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE

(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI

(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI

(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of Thought

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory

(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory

(04:18) Google's AI Workload

(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge

(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation

(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA

(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers

(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges

(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?

(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation

(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx

(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning

(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA

(44:11) Inference-time Compute

(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics

(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology

(01:06:46) Chip Competition

(01:07:18) AMD

(01:10:35) Google’s TPU

(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium

(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

Dylan Patel @dylan522p

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO

(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee 

(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO

(11:34) Advice for CEOs

(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI

(19:42) AI Arms Race

(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI

(28:07) The Future of AI Agents

(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory

(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption

(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft

(56:03) CapX

(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference

(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit

(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI

(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI

Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com

Follow:

Brad Gerstner @altcap

Bill Gurley @bgurley

BG2 Pod @bg2pod

#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod